All Things AB Separatism (split fm Liberal Minority Government 2025 - ???)

[Gordon Dundas/]

A friend of mine is working a polling station today, says they ran of out ballots... twice.

While we wait for the results, please enjoy this example of peak intelligence.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2112277280785662308

I see, the vote early ,
vote often, school of thought.
I'd like to say I'm surprised but sadly I've worked too many elections as Contract Security.
I occasionally thought about working for Elections Canada and their provincial and municipal counterparts as an employee.
I figured if I had to be disappointed in my fellow citizen . At least I could be disappointed at a higher rate of pay .

 

[Kilted]

Vote is starting to come in. The separatists are doing even worse than I expected.

Maybe I was born at the right time that my main association with the word separatist is Star Wars.

 

[HavokFour]

For those still up at this hour.

With a little over a quarter of the votes counted as of posting, it's looking like a blowout.

Unofficial Results - 2026 Referendum

EDIT:

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/livestory/alberta-referendum-results-live-updates-separatism-october-19-2026-9.7387777?id=9.7387777.16998

BREAKING: CBC News projects the vote to stay has won in Alberta

CBC News projects Albertans have soundly rejected a proposal to hold a binding referendum on whether to begin the process of separation, just a few minutes after all polling stations closed.

Cheers erupted at the Forever Canadian watch party once the projection was announced, while fists and flags were held high above the heads of supporters.

EDIT 2:

CBC's tracker breaks down Question 10 results by riding.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/alberta-referendum-live-results-9.7385074

 

[armyvern]

Still holding steady at 77% for "Remain" / 23% "Referendum" to separate.

There are some other interesting results too IMO ...

Elections Alberta Site

 

[HavokFour]

Still holding steady at 77% for "Remain" / 23% "Referendum" to separate.

There are some other interesting results too IMO ...

Elections Alberta Site


View attachment 102714

Should be noted that Question 10 has priority for counting, the other questions are still significantly behind.

 

[The Bread Guy]

For those still up at this hour.

With a little over a quarter of the votes counted as of posting, it's looking like a blowout.

View attachment 102713

Unofficial Results - 2026 Referendum

EDIT:

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/livestory/alberta-referendum-results-live-updates-separatism-october-19-2026-9.7387777?id=9.7387777.16998

EDIT 2:

CBC's tracker breaks down Question 10 results by riding.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/alberta-referendum-live-results-9.7385074

Latest as of 0609E:

 

[brihard]

For those still up at this hour.

With a little over a quarter of the votes counted as of posting, it's looking like a blowout.

View attachment 102713

Unofficial Results - 2026 Referendum

EDIT:

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/livestory/alberta-referendum-results-live-updates-separatism-october-19-2026-9.7387777?id=9.7387777.16998

EDIT 2:

CBC's tracker breaks down Question 10 results by riding.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/alberta-referendum-live-results-9.7385074

I have a baby, so “if you’re up at this hour, it’s looking like a blowout” just hits different.

Not a great showing for the separatists. There’s enough wiggle room left that maybe they’ll crack a quarter support if remaining polls pull heavily in favour of “yes”, but even with their “send Ottawa a message” pitch, a commanding majority of Albertans have no time for such nonsense. Hopefully this result is decisive enough that negative impacts on business investment sentiment are negligible.

Now… With a year to the Alberta election, what’s gonna happen within the UCP? Smith will face serious challenges; will she be able to take this outcome and pivot off of it in some way?

 

[rmc_wannabe]

Now… With a year to the Alberta election, what’s gonna happen within the UCP? Smith will face serious challenges; will she be able to take this outcome and pivot off of it in some way?

They have an AGM in November, in which I can see her being deposed and replaced (as both the sepratists from the former Wild Rose and the federalists from the former Progressive Conservatives view her as a "traitor" to their respective causes).

After that, I can see a UCP schism depending on who takes over as leader. I don't think either camp (seperatists or federalists) can produce a leader that can hold enough influence or sway to keep the United Conservative Party....united.

After that? The NDP takes minority staus, which would be about a year of "figuring it out" until the General Election in 2027. That can either be a great thing for the NDP, or buy enough time for the Tories to unfuck themselves.

In any case, I don't see Danielle Smith remaining in any of the scenarios.

 

[Halifax Tar]

I actually liked this.

Questions 6 - 9 are the most interesting to me.

Direct democracy in the future for Canada!

How Albertans voted on each referendum question | Globalnews.ca

Alberta voters are heading to the polls Monday to cast their ballots in a historic referendum that asks, among its 10 questions, whether to hold a second referendum on separating.

globalnews.ca

 

[brihard]

I actually liked this.

Questions 6 - 9 are the most interesting to me.

Direct democracy in the future for Canada!

How Albertans voted on each referendum question | Globalnews.ca

Alberta voters are heading to the polls Monday to cast their ballots in a historic referendum that asks, among its 10 questions, whether to hold a second referendum on separating.

globalnews.ca

I actually liked this.

Questions 6 - 9 are the most interesting to me.

Direct democracy in the future for Canada!

How Albertans voted on each referendum question | Globalnews.ca

Alberta voters are heading to the polls Monday to cast their ballots in a historic referendum that asks, among its 10 questions, whether to hold a second referendum on separating.

globalnews.ca

As long as you bear in mind that the 1-9 referendum questions in this case are essentially just a massive public opinion poll to give the government non-binding policy guidance. They don’t bind anything.

 

[Halifax Tar]

As long as you bear in mind that the 1-9 referendum questions in this case are essentially just a massive public opinion poll to give the government non-binding policy guidance. They don’t bind anything.

Thanks tips!

 

[brihard]

Thanks tips!

You’re welcome, friend!

Usually when people talk about “direct democracy” it’s more in the sense of binding ballot initiatives like we might see in some U.S. states, or Swiss direct-democratic initiatives that will actually impact law.

A non-binding referendum is little more than a wastefully expensive way to take the population’s temperature on one or more issues that they could have just polled… But then again, in yesterday’s case it’s more a piece of UCP political theatre than really moving any needles.

 

[PrairieFella]

You’re welcome, friend!

Usually when people talk about “direct democracy” it’s more in the sense of binding ballot initiatives like we might see in some U.S. states, or Swiss direct-democratic initiatives that will actually impact law.

A non-binding referendum is little more than a wastefully expensive way to take the population’s temperature on one or more issues that they could have just polled… But then again, in yesterday’s case it’s more a piece of UCP political theatre than really moving any needles.

For example - good fucking luck opening the constitution. A waste of paper.

 

[brihard]

For example - good fucking luck opening the constitution. A waste of paper.

I don’t really like the ‘open it’ framing personally. It suggests that We could somehow unlock it from its current state in such a way that now we somehow must make changes and repack it in order to close the box back up and hope it work, like trying to fix that weird noise in my dishwasher… Really, it remains exactly as it is until and unless one of the amending formulas is used to execute a change successfully and entirely. So, while I share your pessimism it would lead to much, we could embark on constitutional negotiations without actually breaking anything; failure to reach consensus on change just means the same rules stay in effect.

That said, we’re probably on the same page thinking provincial political imperatives would probably scupper any drive for major change.

 

[rmc_wannabe]

I don’t really like the ‘open it’ framing personally. It suggests that We could somehow unlock it from its current state in such a way that now we somehow must make changes and repack it in order to close the box back up and hope it work, like trying to fix that weird noise in my dishwasher… Really, it remains exactly as it is until and unless one of the amending formulas is used to execute a change successfully and entirely. So, while I share your pessimism it would lead to much, we could embark on constitutional negotiations without actually breaking anything; failure to reach consensus on change just means the same rules stay in effect.

That said, we’re probably on the same page thinking provincial political imperatives would probably scupper any drive for major change.

The main concern with any constitutional convention is that it opens it up for further amendments, which can become a weird "quid pro quio" scenario rather than addressing the actual issue that brought it on.

Meech Lake and Charlottetown are examples of how difficult it is to "tweak" the Constitution, especially as the document itself is an imperfect compromise that managed to hold in 1982 long enough to get signed.

 

[ModlrMike]

Now we wait for the wrath of Rath. That should be entertaining as all get out.

 

[MilEME09]

As long as you bear in mind that the 1-9 referendum questions in this case are essentially just a massive public opinion poll to give the government non-binding policy guidance. They don’t bind anything.

Not to mention AB cant unilaterally change the constitution. So 1-9 are pretty moot

 

[ModlrMike]

Not to mention AB cant unilaterally change the constitution. So 1-9 are pretty moot

Some of those questions are also legally dubious:

Q2 - You can't deny someone healthcare based on their citizenship or immigration status
Q3 - Same thing as Q2

 

[Czech_pivo]

Some of those questions are also legally dubious:

Q2 - You can't deny someone healthcare based on their citizenship or immigration status
Q3 - Same thing as Q2

Those questions keep the Tin Foil Hat folks happy. A bone was thrown their way.

 

[foresterab]

For those still up at this hour.


CBC's tracker breaks down Question 10 results by riding.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/alberta-referendum-live-results-9.7385074

Stayed up till Midnight MST to watch results coverage when the updates stopped "live" streaming. Results didn't come in until ~22:45 which was almost 3 hours behind schedule as polling stations were slow to close.

Couple of initial observations...
~33% of votes were in and the verdict was called. I found this somewhat ironic as it felt more like a federal election with the advance votes being the bulk of the tallied results....just made me think of the timezone implications on federal votes.

Only two ridings voted as a majority to "leave Canada" out of 87...still ~1000 polls to report though or 20%. Currently at 48.9% "remain" vote in the Central Peace-Notley riding and 49.6% in the Rimbey-Rocky Mountain House-Sundre riding. Like my riding (just under 60% remain) blue fence posts and rocks are voted in religiously but it's definately not the result you'd expect for how many blue flags you see driving around. So kudos to all those who didn't get sweep up in hysteria and came out to vote and remain in Canada.

There was some interesting commentary on the CBC panel about how this can not be portrayed as "losers" and "winners". Alberta and Canada still lose for having had to have this result. The next challenge is how to we - as a collective nation - move forward in a positive direction.