Recent content by Brad Sallows

Of course I'm discounting them. If the ground war were capable of achieving the decision, surely it would have been done by now, or at least looking as if it might be on such a path. Of course everything matters, but if the drone war is what moves things to some kind of resolution, I'm going...

If Russia's war against Ukraine is "solved", it's probably going to be because of bombing/drones. The ground war just hasn't been moving much. I deem it more likely that Russia will make a serious compromise offer due to accumulating loss of major infrastructure rather than accumulating loss...

Third parties will buy from Russia, probably getting a slightly better deal than US purchasers. US purchasers will buy from fourth parties, probably getting a slightly worse deal than they had with Russia. Not really as effective as passing legislation to provide exquisite weapons to Ukraine.

It sounds like Canada is evolving a multi-tier justice system. Is it correct to infer that mental health and substance use are not mitigating factors for everyone with a history of mental health and substance use issues irrespective of ancestry? If so, that won't do.

RCP House generic average depends on polls which basically measure national voter sentiment without any breakdown by state or district, and media ownership doesn't necessarily translate to polling organization ownership. The RCP generic congressional (House) ballot for the last few cycles has...

Yeah, like that's going to happen. Not something to grieve about, so make something ridiculous up - a day ending in "Y" on this topic.

Yep. And my point is that it matters, just not in the way being advanced or opposed by some people here.

I'm not writing about trickle down economics. I'm writing about the long-term evolution of national economies over decades. More economically powerful nations are advancing the living conditions of their residents faster than less powerful ones. In the vein of what I've written before, there...

Sure. That was us a while back, too. Countries and societies are progressing at different rates and occasionally there is backsliding. Critically, some are a greater threat to liberalism than others. Israel is not a particularly great threat to liberalism or at risk of backsliding except...

People who object to Israel would love it if moderates would concentrate all their fire on Israel. My point is that moderates might consider concentrating their fire on illiberal societies in due proportion to how illiberal those societies are. For my part, I haven't enough time to complain...

In view of the economic and fiscal turmoil, active warfare against Iran, and Trump's generally offensive behaviour, it's remarkable that the probable results are so close. The US probably leans much more conservative (Republican) than is apparent right now.

Every state operates in its interests. Israel is a friend, as much as any other westernized nation that has interests that sometimes diverge from ours. It is not a bastion of political or religious doctrines violently opposed to many of our fundamental political and social principles seeking to...

Per capita GDP is a very useful measure - not for making claims about individual standards of living, but for understanding the potential and power of a nation relative to its population.

Food and resource extraction aren't high on the value chain, but they are the foundation of the (now inverted) economic pyramid. Rising tides do lift all boats. Eventually everyone in a country shares in its total productivity and prosperity. So many people who have some degree of concern...

There are already enough people agitating against Israel. Perhaps some other goals deserve the finite time people are willing to spend bitching about the way the world is. Opposition to Israeli settlers is a correct moral position. It is somewhere between impractical and foolish ("useful...