Between them, Sweden and Denmark control the entrance to the Baltic and can close it tight at a moment's notice effectively trapping any Russian Warships and making that entire fleet irrelevant. In fact, trying to prevent them from being sunk at their moorings would require an enormous expenditure of resources. Wilkipedia has this listing of Russian naval assets in the Baltic Baltic Fleet - Wikipedia and our beloved CBC had an interesting article on the outcome of Sweden joining with NATO and the effect that will have on the deployment of that fleet in the event of war. Those are a lot of assets to have confined to port.
CAN Enhanced (Permanent?) Fwd Presence in Latvia
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Spencer100
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Here is nightmare for Russia. Ukraine takes back the Crimea and maybe not even the Donbas, and the Kaliningrad Freedom movement gains power and secedes from the RF. The Kremlin (no matter who's charge) would feel they have to go for broke. Add an Azerbaijan push into Armenia as they see weakness. Moscow would be in an crisis that it doesn't matter as they are staring down at the end of the Russian world. If your world is ending they may take one last swing.
QV
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If we didn't have some idea, would that be a gigantic intelligence failure?
Halifax Tar
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If I remember correctly we pretty much all knew it was coming. In fact I think people expected it before the Christmas of 2021.
Spencer100
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Putin had to do what XI told him and push it past the Olympics.
As aside...How screwed up is that...."Vad my dear could you push you little war after my winter party?" Hmmm K? "It doesn't look good for the TV when we hand out metals to the Ukrainian ski team and your killing their brothers."
GR66
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The fact that our intelligence assets were able to detect the Russian mobilization as it ramped up in the months leading up to the actual February invasion does not mean that our political and military leaders believed prior to that point that there was any serious likelihood of the Russian military conducting a full-scale conventional invasion of Ukraine.
In fact, right up to the day before the invasion many senior leaders continued to proclaim that it was just a Russian pressure tactic to intimidate Ukraine. Even Ukraine's leadership did not fully believe the warnings they were given and had their troops deployed in a way designed to defend against a much smaller type of military incursion.
If we really did believe that Russia would initiate this type of war the West wouldn't have let their militaries degenerate to the state that they were in early 2022. NATO militaries are still dealing with personnel and equipment shortages, maintenance issues and serious lack of munitions with which to fight a major conflict.
We shouldn't make the same mistake now by assuming that because Russia has taken serious military losses in this war that they will be incapable of rebuilding and becoming a threat again in the near future. The Romans were annihilated at Cannae in 216 BCE but forced the Carthaginians to surrender after the battle of Zama in 202 BCE.
A Russian attack against NATO in the coming years is not likely, but the less we are prepared to defend against such a possibility the more likely it becomes.
Retired AF Guy
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It would be a miracle if any BALFLT assets ever made it that far. As it stands the Baltic Sea is now a NATO Lake: you have Finland and Sweden to the north and to the south you have Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland and Germany. A pretty nasty gauntlet to run.
And to the north the situation has also changed. Prior to Feb 2022, Russian forces coming out of Murmansk only had to worry about NATO forces in Norway. Now they also have Finland and Sweden forces that are capable of targeting Russian forces coming over the North Cape.
FJAG
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Anybody who thinks that Russia's Baltic fleet will still be in the Baltic when hostilities start, raise your hand.
Didn't think so.
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TBH I thought they would position a lot more assets in the Black Sea before they rolled the dice on Ukraine, so there's that as well...Anybody who thinks that Russia's Baltic fleet will still be in the Baltic when hostilities start, raise your hand.
Didn't think so.
FJAG
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I guess they thought their existing overmatch in the region against Ukraine's tiny navy was more than enough.
Not their only mistake.
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Not in the slightest.
Western Governments had been notified and a lot of them stuck their heads up their collective asses.
You may not have realized but weeks prior we where putting hundred of C-17 flights into Ukraine with a lot of stuff.
Well not everyone did, just the idiots.
Some believe the likelihood is even stronger now. But yet a lot of Western Countries continue to act like well, Canada…
RangerRay
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I remember during the Russian build-up in November/December 2021 when everyone was poo-pooing an invasion that the Russians issued an ultimatum that sounded very similar to the Austrian-Hungarian’s ultimatum to Serbia 108 years earlier. I knew then that things were going to get real unless someone blinked.
GK .Dundas
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I was reading an autobiographical piece of an American diplomat a couple of years ago.
And he mentions that they had satellite overheads of Russian armoured units fueling and bombing up at supply depots in 68 prior to the Czech invasive and again in 79 for Afghanistan. The Bases were fairly close to those respective borders.
Apparently it was quite unusual for them to actually go to the actual logistics hub rather the usual practice of deliveries going to the various units.
But nobody had actually bothered to look too closely at them and ..... Surprise !
And he mentions that they had satellite overheads of Russian armoured units fueling and bombing up at supply depots in 68 prior to the Czech invasive and again in 79 for Afghanistan. The Bases were fairly close to those respective borders.
Apparently it was quite unusual for them to actually go to the actual logistics hub rather the usual practice of deliveries going to the various units.
But nobody had actually bothered to look too closely at them and ..... Surprise !
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To that very point, project FURY …I guess they thought their existing overmatch in the region against Ukraine's tiny navy was more than enough.
Not their only mistake.
Exclusive: New Ukrainian Underwater Drone Project To Dominate The Black Sea - Naval News
Sea drones are reshaping naval combat in the Black Sea. Now a Ukrainian project seeks to introduce highly capable Western underwater drones
www.navalnews.com
which in itself will be a tell-tale sign that the manure is about to hit the proverbial. If the fleet remains in port or in the Baltic they might be able to gain the advantage of surprise at the risk of losing the fleet. If they sail, it allows us time to position our six pack from Cold Lake plus dozens of Allied air assets, position tanks and ground support. Russia loses either way.Anybody who thinks that Russia's Baltic fleet will still be in the Baltic when hostilities start, raise your hand.
Didn't think so.
FJAG
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I'm very much a believer in the fact that such underwater vehicles will reshape naval warfare tremendously. I see the purpose of a ship is to bring weapon platforms to bear where desired. The major complication is keeping the ship maintained so that it can get where it needs to go and sustained once it gets there so that it can keep fighting.To that very point, project FURY …
Exclusive: New Ukrainian Underwater Drone Project To Dominate The Black Sea - Naval News
Sea drones are reshaping naval combat in the Black Sea. Now a Ukrainian project seeks to introduce highly capable Western underwater drones
That too is the problem with unmanned naval craft. How do you maintain them and control them without an onboard crew and, if they are reusable, how do you sustain them? That is not an insurmountable problem. Once solved, it will change the face of naval warfare. How many autonomous or semi-autonomous weapon system can you deploy for the cost of one aircraft carrier? And will you even need aircraft carriers once a suite of unmanned aircraft and weapon systems become viable?
I'm starting to wonder as to whether or not the money for a few of the upcoming frigates and F35s wouldn't be better diverted to the development and acquisition of cheaper and more plentiful unmanned systems.
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Some of us were watching…56+ chalks per day of RCHR call-signs out of Dover.
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I'm very much a believer in the fact that such underwater vehicles will reshape naval warfare tremendously. I see the purpose of a ship is to bring weapon platforms to bear where desired. The major complication is keeping the ship maintained so that it can get where it needs to go and sustained once it gets there so that it can keep fighting.
That too is the problem with unmanned naval craft. How do you maintain them and control them without an onboard crew and, if they are reusable, how do you sustain them? That is not an insurmountable problem. Once solved, it will change the face of naval warfare. How many autonomous or semi-autonomous weapon system can you deploy for the cost of one aircraft carrier? And will you even need aircraft carriers once a suite of unmanned aircraft and weapon systems become viable?
I'm starting to wonder as to whether or not the money for a few of the upcoming frigates and F35s wouldn't be better diverted to the development and acquisition of cheaper and more plentiful unmanned systems.
One avenue of investigation - Naval MRTs
U.S. Navy to Test Spearhead-class EPF as Maintenance and Repair Vessel for LCS - Naval News
The U.S. Navy has announced that USNS Burlington will carry out a proof-of-concept test: The EPF ship will serve as an afloat forward staging base style platform, transporting a Maintenance Expeditionary Team of active duty sailors and their equipment and repair materials to various Littoral...
www.navalnews.com
The programme tested the Spearhead JHSV as a maintenance team for an LCS formation. It could just as easily support a USV formation or a combined USV/LCS formation like this
U.S. Navy deployment puts Leidos autonomy on display
A task group including four unmanned surface vessels developed by Leidos reached Sydney Harbor this week after crossing the Pacific Ocean for the first time.
Navy eyeing Littoral Combat Ships as 'mothership' for unmanned platforms, SecNav tells lawmakers - Breaking Defense
A letter obtained by Breaking Defense states the "current phase" of a Navy study will wrap up this year.
breakingdefense.com
A 40 knot flotilla mounting SM6s and Tomahawks.
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Further to...
www.navalnews.com
www.austal.com
Second Vendor Clears U.S. Navy LUSV Milestone - Naval News
The U.S. Navy is getting one step closer to fielding LUSV as vendors get closer to clearing propulsion endurance tests
www.navalnews.com
Austal USA delivers EPF-13; the US Navy's largest surface vessel with autonomous capability
COMPANY ANNOUNCEMENT 20 FEBRUARY 2023 Austal USA delivers EPF-13; the US Navy's Largest Surface Ship with Autonomous Capability Austal Limited (Austal) (ASX: ASB) is pleased to announce Austal USA has delivered Expeditionary Fast Transport USNS Apalachicola (EPF 13) to the United States Navy...
daftandbarmy
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Sweet baby Jesus.... civvy toque, no (non-medical) gloves, still doing a great job representing Canada... what's the world coming to
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