CAN Enhanced (Permanent?) Fwd Presence in Latvia

[YZT580]

I don’t like to draw on events from an over a century ago, in which a nations entire system of government has changed three times, to inform my view on how they’ll operate now. However if the Baltic fleet either leaves or is destroyed it becomes a moot point. And this whole concern that some how Russia will get the drop on us and mass / execute before any NATO counter is mute.

as the saying goes, those who forget their history are doomed to repeat it. You could be right but the issue under discussion is identifying potential first moves in a European war. I don't believe that Russia will allow their Baltic fleet to be destroyed in position but will sortie prior to initiating any hostilities and that action should trigger our own fly-over.

 

[markppcli]

as the saying goes, those who forget their history are doomed to repeat it. You could be right but the issue under discussion is identifying potential first moves in a European war. I don't believe that Russia will allow their Baltic fleet to be destroyed in position but will sortie prior to initiating any hostilities and that action should trigger our own fly-over.

I agree with the history point but I tend to take that as a lesson about generalisms and the human condition more so than drawing a link between Tsarist Imperial Russia and the Russian Federations naval doctrine.

The Russian Baltic Fleet isn’t some bogey man either, it’s a Destroyer, 2 Frigates, and a handful of corvettes along side their landing ships. Several have been in long term refit since 2019, several are committed to Ukraine, and some have been damaged or destroyed in Ukraine. The most important combat power the Russian Navy provides in the Baltic are their two Mig 27 Squadrons and a Naval Infantry Bde… and how Ukraine has affected those equipment stocks who knows.

That said a sortie would have largely the same effect as them being destroyed in the Baltic Sea, ie NATO gains complete control of the lake.

 

[Cloud Cover]

Low season only.

Invasion by economy class air fare, and the are only allowed to occupy 2 star resorts.

 

[MilEME09]

as the saying goes, those who forget their history are doomed to repeat it. You could be right but the issue under discussion is identifying potential first moves in a European war. I don't believe that Russia will allow their Baltic fleet to be destroyed in position but will sortie prior to initiating any hostilities and that action should trigger our own fly-over.

Unless the Baltic fleet starts using nuclear torpedo's at minute 1 of a conflict, they wont last very long, the baltic fleet has also been heavily mixed with the northern fleet for the Mediterranean flotilla to support ops in Syria. The biggest asset Russia has in Kaliningrad is nukes, and their OTHR sites.

 

[FJAG]

I agree with the history point but I tend to take that as a lesson about generalisms and the human condition more so than drawing a link between Tsarist Imperial Russia and the Russian Federations naval doctrine.

The part of history that strikes me with the scenarios that are being discussed here is more like the mobilization cycles of WW1. Essentially once the "mobilize and execute Schlieffen-plan" and "mobilize and execute Le plan XVII" messages were sent out by telegraph, putting the genie back into the bottle became practically impossible.

 

[KevinB]

The part of history that strikes me with the scenarios that are being discussed here is more like the mobilization cycles of WW1. Essentially once the "mobilize and execute Schlieffen-plan" and "mobilize and execute Le plan XVII" messages were sent out by telegraph, putting the genie back into the bottle became practically impossible.

Or in modern terms, when Putin gets an idea in his head...