All Things AB Separatism (split fm Liberal Minority Government 2025 - ???)

[PPCLI Guy]

I guess it would just be part of the negotiations. Take a portion of the debt, take a portion of the CPP... take a portion of the CAF (except Navy)...... no more equalization payments (which would fund a lot of improved healthcare, improvements for FN, and a robust Alberta Defence Force)...

Not sure I understand the statement "no more equalization payments" leading to better health care etc?

As I understand it, Alberta makes no direct equalization payments to the Feds or other Provinces, so am I missing something?

And although AB would be able to use its tax revenues in any way it saw fit, I think it unlikely that the Feds will continue the $273M for Heath Transfer, or the $87M for Social Transfer that Alberta currently receives twice a month, which total over $8B per year.

Or am I reading this wrong?

 

[Fabius]

And although AB would be able to use its tax revenues in any way it saw fit, I think it unlikely that the Feds will continue the $273M for Heath Transfer, or the $87M for Social Transfer that Alberta currently receives twice a month, which total over $8B per year.

A province seeking independence though would have to consider those federal transfers in relation to the federal taxes paid by those residing in that province.

That revenue to the federal government based on the federal tax rate from the residents of Alberta would represent the additional tax revenue capacity that the provincial government would then have in addition to their currently existing revenues.

How much money is paid in taxes to the federal government by the Alberta residents? That would need to be compared to those federal transfers and the province’s newly anticipated federal responsibilities.

 

[daftandbarmy]

Not sure I understand the statement "no more equalization payments" leading to better health care etc?

As I understand it, Alberta makes no direct equalization payments to the Feds or other Provinces, so am I missing something?

And although AB would be able to use its tax revenues in any way it saw fit, I think it unlikely that the Feds will continue the $273M for Heath Transfer, or the $87M for Social Transfer that Alberta currently receives twice a month, which total over $8B per year.

Or am I reading this wrong?

Given past fiscal performance, an 'independent' Alberta would quickly spend themselves into the poor house and achieve failed state status before a couple of fiscals had passed.

BC and a couple of others? Probably the same...

 

[PPCLI Guy]

A province seeking independence though would have to consider those federal transfers in relation to the federal taxes paid by those residing in that province.​

That revenue to the federal government based on the federal tax rate from the residents of Alberta would represent the additional tax revenue capacity that the provincial government would then have in addition to their currently existing revenues.

How much money is paid in taxes to the federal government by the Alberta residents? That would need to be compared to those federal transfers and the province’s newly anticipated federal responsibilities.

Great points. I found this:

AI Overview​

Learn more​

​

In 2024, Canada's revenue from Alberta, as administered by the Canada Revenue Agency (CRA), was approximately $180.586 billion. This includes income tax revenues (both personal and corporate), the provincial portion of the harmonized sales tax (HST), and other revenues.

​

Here's a more detailed breakdown:

​

• Total Income Tax Revenues: $138.305 billion. This includes:
  • Personal Income Tax: $102.481 billion.
  • Corporate Income Tax: $35.824 billion.
• Provincial Portion of HST: $40.714 billion.
• Other Revenues: $1.567 billion.

These figures represent revenues collected for provincial and territorial governments and First Nations. Additionally, the CRA administers revenues for the Canada Pension Plan (CPP) as well, with CPP pension contributions, interest, and penalties totaling $81.881 billion in 2024.​

 

[Blackadder1916]

Given past fiscal performance, an 'independent' Alberta would quickly spend themselves into the poor house and achieve failed state status before a couple of fiscals had passed.

BC and a couple of others? Probably the same...

It would be interesting to see the contortions that 'independent Alberta' political leaders would go through to accommodate the third rail of the Alberta advantage - no sales tax.

 

[Blackadder1916]

Great points. I found this:

AI Overview​

Learn more​

​

. . . the provincial portion of the harmonized sales tax (HST) . . .​

There is no 'provincial' portion of an HST in Alberta. I can't remember the last provincial politician who suggested implementing a provincial sales tax . . . probably because that would be an assured loss at the polls.

 

[dapaterson]

There is no 'provincial' portion of an HST in Alberta. I can't remember the last provincial politician who suggested implementing a provincial sales tax . . . probably because that would be an assured loss at the polls.

I believe that refers to GST collected in AB.

 

[Maxman1]

AI making things up as usual.

 

[PPCLI Guy]

AI making things up as usual.

Ahh. Great analysis, and a welcome contribution to the discussion.

So basically, you are saying this is Fake News (ie something that one disagrees with)?

 

[Brad Sallows]

Sure, but obviously you’re savvy enough to know that this idea is in the context of Alberta’s exploration of their own APP, and the varied takes on how much of the CPP kitty they would be entitled to should they withdraw from CPP. That would pretty much be a certainty were Alberta to separate. As a response to ‘what could Canada do were Alberta to secede and refuse to pay for federal assets it takes over’, ‘withold
a commensurate amount of any CPP fund transfer’ isn’t overly outlandish.

Back a year or so ago the province claimed Alberta's portion of CPP assets was about 53%, even though it only represents about 15% of the national population. Stay or go, the would obviously want a pile-o-dough to seed their own APP.

Alternatively, Canada could simply pay eligible Alberta residents their allotted pension benefit directly. It's not unusual for people to be eligible for foreign pensions or for Canadians living overseas to receive CPP.

I took @Stoker's question as stated without the earlier context. If AB could refuse to accept a share of debt, Canada could refuse to grant a share of CPP assets. Regardless, the assets aren't Alberta's any more than someone's mutual funds would be.

 

[Brad Sallows]

I know you're intentionally being obtuse, but killing is pretty far down the line when it comes to government "force".

I can't recall the last time someone was shot for not filing their taxes...

A person can get shot for making poor escalation choices at a traffic stop. We can say that the victim wasn't shot for a traffic violation but was shot for posing an imminent risk of deadly harm to police officers or bystanders, but the event which sets the tragedy in motion is easy to see. Regardless, the context is about using force across sovereign borders. For that, more than a police force is usually needed.

There is no free ride, so if AB want's out, the rest of Canada will have a say in how it unfolds. Just as it will if QC decides to go down that route.

I apparently cannot emphasize enough that if a province is determined enough to secede, it can act completely unilaterally, burning all bridges (eg. refusing to take on an obligation to pay a share of Canadian debtholders what is owed them in Canadian dollars) and accepting all the resulting liabilities (eg. being blacklisted by all potential foreign lenders). What then? The choice on the other side will be to pile on more damage ranging from tariffs through embargoes and blockades up to war, or to accept a bad situation and get on with improving it without unnecessary loss of life and further immiseration.

 

[QV]

Alberta directly benefits from shared Canadian infrastructure including rail and highways. They also benefit from trade and other various international agreements. Canada negotiating that has a lot more leverage than any individual province, the same way the EU trade block has much more leverage than any individual country.

I think there are reasonable complaints about things like the approval process and timelines for major resources extraction projects, and the current trend of Alberta paying out more than they pay in, but they've also been a have not province supported by the rest of the country, and could be again if fortunes turn against Albertan heavy crude exports to the US, so don't think there will be people turning down EI if they need it.

Similarly, there is a massive liability in orphaned oil wells being offloaded to the fed gov by the province.

Standing on it's own, the US could simply embargo Albertan oil and quickly bankrupt the entire 'country' of Alberta (which would be missing big chunks of federal land and be essentially landlocked), and force massively punishing terms to extract maximum resources out of it without giving Alberta anything, and probably would absorb it as a protectorate so wouldn't even get citizen rights or any representation to be able to influence US politics.

That's pretty much what Trump said he wants to do to the entireity of Canada, so why would you expect a complete narcisisst to not do the same thing to Albertans? He doesn't care about American citizens, why would he care about them?

Add to that, Alberta would be an even smaller voice and representation in the US as they wouldn’t even get statehood and no state is giving up seats for what will be less than the 4 million people it currently has.

Peter Zeihan's analysis suggests Alberta would prosper massively on it's own or as a state. Now I don't agree with everything PZ says, but his analysis is usually worth considering.

 

[Maxman1]

Ahh. Great analysis, and a welcome contribution to the discussion.

So basically, you are saying this is Fake News (ie something that one disagrees with)?

No, I'm saying AI is notorious for generating false information.

Understanding the Limitations of Language Models

Dive into the world of large language models (LLMs) and explore their capabilities and limitations. Learn about the risks of hallucinations and misleading outputs, the technical limitations of input and output length, the challenges with structured data, biases in LLM outputs, and the occasional...

www.linkedin.com

One significant concern with LLMs is the potential for hallucinations and the generation of false information. LLMs can sometimes produce confident and authoritative-sounding outputs that are entirely made up. This can mislead users into believing that the generated content is factual and reliable. Such hallucinations can have serious consequences, as seen in the case of a lawyer who unknowingly submitted a legal filing with fabricated court cases generated by an LLM. This resulted in sanctions and a cringe-inducing court hearing.

To mitigate the risk of misleading outputs, it is crucial to critically evaluate and fact-check the information generated by LLMs. Understand that LLMs lack real-world knowledge and can inadvertently produce inaccurate or fictional content.

 

[MilEME09]

Peter Zeihan's analysis suggests Alberta would prosper massively on it's own or as a state. Now I don't agree with everything PZ says, but his analysis is usually worth considering.

Thats assuming AB can even negotiate its exit with Canada and FN, treaty 6,7, and 8, the Blackfoot Confederacy have all said not happening. Without treaty 7 and the blackfoot, southern AB stays with Canada, without treaty 8 territory northern AB, including the oil sands stays as well. The people pushing seperation think it would be easy like say kosovo leaving serbia, in reality this is completely DOA, not to mention because of the clarity act, i doubt they would get a clear majority anyway.

 

[Brad Sallows]

Not sure I understand the statement "no more equalization payments" leading to better health care etc?

As I understand it, Alberta makes no direct equalization payments to the Feds or other Provinces, so am I missing something?

And although AB would be able to use its tax revenues in any way it saw fit, I think it unlikely that the Feds will continue the $273M for Heath Transfer, or the $87M for Social Transfer that Alberta currently receives twice a month, which total over $8B per year.

Or am I reading this wrong?

A way to look at the situation is to look at net outflows from AB (mainly GST and federal personal and corporate income taxes) versus inflows (transfers to the province and individuals). Albertans almost without exception contribute more than they and Alberta receive back. If they lost the federal outflows and inflows, they'd be in a net surplus situation. Of course, the costs of separation even without an acrimonious non-negotiated absolute break might wash that surplus out, even after tallying up the share of other federal spending they might forego by having a much smaller per capita government operations cost.

 

[PPCLI Guy]

No, I'm saying AI is notorious for generating false information.

Understanding the Limitations of Language Models

Dive into the world of large language models (LLMs) and explore their capabilities and limitations. Learn about the risks of hallucinations and misleading outputs, the technical limitations of input and output length, the challenges with structured data, biases in LLM outputs, and the occasional...

www.linkedin.com

Thanks - I am well-versed in all of that and do a risk calculation on likelihood of verisimilitude - an AI summary of the underlying official sources referenced in that summary, or the summary provided in a blog, discussion forum etc by a single human with unknowable biases..

 

[QV]

And this in large part is why an Alberta separation resulting in a new state with borders matching its current one is a myth. Separatists are basically children and should be given the same firm, patient tolerance, but they don’t dictate adult affairs. If they achieve a succesful referendum, then serious discussions can start. However, in the same breath, the various First Nationa will be voting on whether they and their treaty lands will be remaining a part of Canada.

Fortunately a strong majority of Albertans don’t want this and won’t go for it, so it will be one of those background discussions. Hopefully, despite their background noise, the federal government can make real progress in addressing some of the very valid and real grievances of Alberta and the prairies writ large. It’s still an important thing to address and the right thing to do… But not because the kids are rowdy.

I think if a referendum were to take place today the result would be roughly 20%-30% give or take... which is significant considering there are no real details or options presented. 20-30% want to go without even knowing a plan. Sask is a little higher I think. This is a very bad situation for Canada.

If there was a period of time, 6 months - 1 year, during which a campaign educating Albertans and FNs what this would mean for them, including details and options presented by the US or pure independent secessionists which address the chief concerns, I guess support could reach 60% or higher for leaving one way or another.

Canada and the smarter provinces would obviously be against this fracture and Canada's media propaganda arm (CBC) would work to considerably undermine any education effort made by the secessionists or offers of statehood by the US. Remember, Quebec almost made it happen, and that was without an offer to join the US and was before the proliferation of information on the internet and big changes in perceptions of MSM integrity like today.

If this is managed/sold a certain way, I suspect the chances it succeeds is far from zero. And this should scare the crap out of the RoC.

 

[Brad Sallows]

Great points. I found this:

AI Overview​

Learn more​

​

In 2024, Canada's revenue from Alberta, as administered by the Canada Revenue Agency (CRA), was approximately $180.586 billion. This includes income tax revenues (both personal and corporate), the provincial portion of the harmonized sales tax (HST), and other revenues.​

​

Here's a more detailed breakdown:​

​

​

• Total Income Tax Revenues:$138.305 billion. This includes:
  • Personal Income Tax: $102.481 billion.
  • Corporate Income Tax: $35.824 billion.
• Provincial Portion of HST: $40.714 billion.
• Other Revenues: $1.567 billion.

These figures represent revenues collected for provincial and territorial governments and First Nations. Additionally, the CRA administers revenues for the Canada Pension Plan (CPP) as well, with CPP pension contributions, interest, and penalties totaling $81.881 billion in 2024.​

I can't imagine where those numbers come from, but AB does not account for almost half of federal income from income taxes. The Fiscal Reference Tables for 2023 (ie. information ends at 2022-23) show total federal revenue of $208B for personal income taxes and $94B for corporate. Federal revenues didn't grow astronomically in the past two years.

 

[PrairieFella]

The US military shows up, probably?

It's ironic to think of the Canadian government saying "Nuh unh, Alberta can't leave because of the First Nations treaties" considering we've spent 250ish years trying to avoid honouring them.

Oh good, so the US military comes and deals with the indigenous. Good drills.

 

[CBH99]

CPP isn't owed to Alberta, just as equalization payments don't come from Alberta. Taxpayers and CPP recipients are individuals.

Do you mind expanding on this?

I've been under the impression that equalization payments very much come from Alberta?

And that Alberta pays for more than it's fair share of CPP?