Liberal Minority Government 2025 - ???

[Jarnhamar]

She already clearly said the only way she would do it would be still as under the Green Party banner, but she may also go out of her way to try and be even handed in that role to prove she's independent.

Do speakers need to be accepted by all parties?

In this election she purposefully didn't run some candidates (apparently?) to push strategic voting against the Conservatives. That's next level bias IMO.

 

[Lumber]

In this election she purposefully didn't run some candidates (apparently?) to push strategic voting against the Conservatives. That's next level bias IMO.

Based.

 

[Jarnhamar]

Based.

That went over my head sorry. What do you mean?

 

[PuckChaser]

Do speakers need to be accepted by all parties?

In this election she purposefully didn't run some candidates (apparently?) to push strategic voting against the Conservatives. That's next level bias IMO.

And then whined when her party didn't meet 2 of the 3 debate criteria...

 

[Remius]

Do speakers need to be accepted by all parties?

No. They just need to receive 50% of the vote in the house.

In this election she purposefully didn't run some candidates (apparently?) to push strategic voting against the Conservatives. That's next level bias IMO.

All parties run and do things in elections that are based on bias.

 

[lenaitch]

CPP isn't owed to Alberta, just as equalization payments don't come from Alberta. Taxpayers and CPP recipients are individuals.

Back a year or so ago the province claimed Alberta's portion of CPP assets was about 53%, even though it only represents about 15% of the national population. Stay or go, the would obviously want a pile-o-dough to seed their own APP.

Alternatively, Canada could simply pay eligible Alberta residents their allotted pension benefit directly. It's not unusual for people to be eligible for foreign pensions or for Canadians living overseas to receive CPP.

 

[PPCLI Guy]

I guess it would just be part of the negotiations. Take a portion of the debt, take a portion of the CPP... take a portion of the CAF (except Navy)...... no more equalization payments (which would fund a lot of improved healthcare, improvements for FN, and a robust Alberta Defence Force)...

Not sure I understand the statement "no more equalization payments" leading to better health care etc?

As I understand it, Alberta makes no direct equalization payments to the Feds or other Provinces, so am I missing something?

And although AB would be able to use its tax revenues in any way it saw fit, I think it unlikely that the Feds will continue the $273M for Heath Transfer, or the $87M for Social Transfer that Alberta currently receives twice a month, which total over $8B per year.

Or am I reading this wrong?

 

[Underway]

That went over my head sorry. What do you mean?

Slang to mean "very true" or "true to yourself". All the kids are saying it. Get hip with the new jive.

 

[Remius]

Slang to mean "very true" or "true to yourself". All the kids are saying it. Get hip with the new jive.

Groovy.

 

[Fabius]

And although AB would be able to use its tax revenues in any way it saw fit, I think it unlikely that the Feds will continue the $273M for Heath Transfer, or the $87M for Social Transfer that Alberta currently receives twice a month, which total over $8B per year.

A province seeking independence though would have to consider those federal transfers in relation to the federal taxes paid by those residing in that province.

That revenue to the federal government based on the federal tax rate from the residents of Alberta would represent the additional tax revenue capacity that the provincial government would then have in addition to their currently existing revenues.

How much money is paid in taxes to the federal government by the Alberta residents? That would need to be compared to those federal transfers and the province’s newly anticipated federal responsibilities.

 

[dapaterson]

Slang to mean "very true" or "true to yourself". All the kids are saying it. Get hip with the new jive.

 

[daftandbarmy]

Not sure I understand the statement "no more equalization payments" leading to better health care etc?

As I understand it, Alberta makes no direct equalization payments to the Feds or other Provinces, so am I missing something?

And although AB would be able to use its tax revenues in any way it saw fit, I think it unlikely that the Feds will continue the $273M for Heath Transfer, or the $87M for Social Transfer that Alberta currently receives twice a month, which total over $8B per year.

Or am I reading this wrong?

Given past fiscal performance, an 'independent' Alberta would quickly spend themselves into the poor house and achieve failed state status before a couple of fiscals had passed.

BC and a couple of others? Probably the same...

 

[PPCLI Guy]

A province seeking independence though would have to consider those federal transfers in relation to the federal taxes paid by those residing in that province.​

That revenue to the federal government based on the federal tax rate from the residents of Alberta would represent the additional tax revenue capacity that the provincial government would then have in addition to their currently existing revenues.

How much money is paid in taxes to the federal government by the Alberta residents? That would need to be compared to those federal transfers and the province’s newly anticipated federal responsibilities.

Great points. I found this:

AI Overview​

Learn more​

​

In 2024, Canada's revenue from Alberta, as administered by the Canada Revenue Agency (CRA), was approximately $180.586 billion. This includes income tax revenues (both personal and corporate), the provincial portion of the harmonized sales tax (HST), and other revenues.

​

Here's a more detailed breakdown:

​

• Total Income Tax Revenues: $138.305 billion. This includes:
  • Personal Income Tax: $102.481 billion.
  • Corporate Income Tax: $35.824 billion.
• Provincial Portion of HST: $40.714 billion.
• Other Revenues: $1.567 billion.

These figures represent revenues collected for provincial and territorial governments and First Nations. Additionally, the CRA administers revenues for the Canada Pension Plan (CPP) as well, with CPP pension contributions, interest, and penalties totaling $81.881 billion in 2024.​

 

[Blackadder1916]

Given past fiscal performance, an 'independent' Alberta would quickly spend themselves into the poor house and achieve failed state status before a couple of fiscals had passed.

BC and a couple of others? Probably the same...

It would be interesting to see the contortions that 'independent Alberta' political leaders would go through to accommodate the third rail of the Alberta advantage - no sales tax.

 

[Blackadder1916]

Great points. I found this:

AI Overview​

Learn more​

​

. . . the provincial portion of the harmonized sales tax (HST) . . .​

There is no 'provincial' portion of an HST in Alberta. I can't remember the last provincial politician who suggested implementing a provincial sales tax . . . probably because that would be an assured loss at the polls.

 

[dapaterson]

There is no 'provincial' portion of an HST in Alberta. I can't remember the last provincial politician who suggested implementing a provincial sales tax . . . probably because that would be an assured loss at the polls.

I believe that refers to GST collected in AB.

 

[Maxman1]

AI making things up as usual.

 

[PPCLI Guy]

AI making things up as usual.

Ahh. Great analysis, and a welcome contribution to the discussion.

So basically, you are saying this is Fake News (ie something that one disagrees with)?

 

[Brad Sallows]

Sure, but obviously you’re savvy enough to know that this idea is in the context of Alberta’s exploration of their own APP, and the varied takes on how much of the CPP kitty they would be entitled to should they withdraw from CPP. That would pretty much be a certainty were Alberta to separate. As a response to ‘what could Canada do were Alberta to secede and refuse to pay for federal assets it takes over’, ‘withold
a commensurate amount of any CPP fund transfer’ isn’t overly outlandish.

Back a year or so ago the province claimed Alberta's portion of CPP assets was about 53%, even though it only represents about 15% of the national population. Stay or go, the would obviously want a pile-o-dough to seed their own APP.

Alternatively, Canada could simply pay eligible Alberta residents their allotted pension benefit directly. It's not unusual for people to be eligible for foreign pensions or for Canadians living overseas to receive CPP.

I took @Stoker's question as stated without the earlier context. If AB could refuse to accept a share of debt, Canada could refuse to grant a share of CPP assets. Regardless, the assets aren't Alberta's any more than someone's mutual funds would be.

 

[Brad Sallows]

I know you're intentionally being obtuse, but killing is pretty far down the line when it comes to government "force".

I can't recall the last time someone was shot for not filing their taxes...

A person can get shot for making poor escalation choices at a traffic stop. We can say that the victim wasn't shot for a traffic violation but was shot for posing an imminent risk of deadly harm to police officers or bystanders, but the event which sets the tragedy in motion is easy to see. Regardless, the context is about using force across sovereign borders. For that, more than a police force is usually needed.

There is no free ride, so if AB want's out, the rest of Canada will have a say in how it unfolds. Just as it will if QC decides to go down that route.

I apparently cannot emphasize enough that if a province is determined enough to secede, it can act completely unilaterally, burning all bridges (eg. refusing to take on an obligation to pay a share of Canadian debtholders what is owed them in Canadian dollars) and accepting all the resulting liabilities (eg. being blacklisted by all potential foreign lenders). What then? The choice on the other side will be to pile on more damage ranging from tariffs through embargoes and blockades up to war, or to accept a bad situation and get on with improving it without unnecessary loss of life and further immiseration.