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Only when the President's script isn't parroting Russia...
Israeli strikes on Iran (2024, 2025, etc.)
- Thread starter brihard
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Only when the President's script isn't parroting Russia...
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Ryan McBeth does a good breakdown on some next steps post B2 strikes and a bit of a backgrounder on his hopes for the Iranian people:
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Most amazing part of this whole thing is that the Air Force actually worked on a weekend....
The Pentagon did a presser this morning.
Various other reactions:
My thoughts: this delays the program, pretty significantly. It does not destroy it. This probably pushed the limits of the MOP, aided by poor engineering choices on Iran’s part. Iran is a country of 90 million, with GDP (PPP) over 1.7 trillion. They can dig deeper holes. The next facility will probably be much farther under a mountain, far too deep to hit, and with more intelligently designed infrastructure that’s less vulnerable. The U.S. won’t be able to fly the Millennium Falcon and an X-Wing in to hit the central reactor. It will be very expensive, but quite doable if Iran accepts the cost.
It would be imprudent to assume much knowledge was lost. What takes a year the first time could take a month or two the second. Yes, some scientists have been taken out… Iran has more, and will train more still. Infrastructure, machines (centrifuges)- all can be rebuilt. As long as the Iranian regime retains power, they’ll probably be back at it. I don’t believe the U.S. position of forcing them to the table will likely work. This will push Iran further into China’s sphere, and Iran continues to produce stuff China wants to buy. Iran will have exports and will have the ability to buy things. It will remain to be seen how much of Iran’s uranium can be recovered from the sites hit… Probably a fair bit.
Iran still has an operating 1000mw nuclear fission reactor at Bushehr. Russia has been offtaking its spent fuel to mitigate proliferation concerns (plutonium is a byproduct). Will that continue? Time will tell.
I think the only way this ends, long term, is with regime change. I think the U.S. administration hopes that’s not the case, and may be blinded by a belief that everything can be a deal. I think Israel recognizes it and will continue to pressure the regime. Decapitation won’t work in that respect; kill Khamenei and his successor will probably be just as much a threat. I think Iran will not abandon the ambition for nuclear weapons without the whole system of government falling. Obviously that would cause its own very dangerous tumult.
Iran could not be allowed to get nukes. If in fact they were a short sprint away, fair enough. Let’s just not mistake this for anything more than turning the clock back a while.
- 7x B2s struck Iran.
- 12x (!!!) Massive Ordnance penetrators on Fordow.
- 2x MOP on Natanz.
- Buncha Tomahawks on Natanz and Isfahan.
- The B2 flight west that I and others were watching was a feint.
- This is to be a limited engagement, the U.S. is at war with Iran’s nuclear ambitions but not Iran (snort).
- Iran is immediately welcome back at the table and knows exactly what U.S. criteria are.
- If Iran retaliates, they’re gonna have a bad time.
Various other reactions:
- Predictable condemnation and urges towards a peaceful settlement across the Middle East. Makes sense, they have the most to lose from this blowing up.
- British PM Starmer confirms they were advised shortly before the hits. The UK was not involved. Diego Garcia was not used.
- Iran is of course pissed. Lots of bluster, not much concrete yet. They presumably realize how bad a bind they’re in. However, one ominous comment from them was “you cannot bomb knowledge”, or words to that effect.
- Iran shot some more missiles at Israel, Israel in response bombed some stuff in Iran
- So far there has not been any real reprisal from Iran. Strait of Hormuz is not as of yet affected.
My thoughts: this delays the program, pretty significantly. It does not destroy it. This probably pushed the limits of the MOP, aided by poor engineering choices on Iran’s part. Iran is a country of 90 million, with GDP (PPP) over 1.7 trillion. They can dig deeper holes. The next facility will probably be much farther under a mountain, far too deep to hit, and with more intelligently designed infrastructure that’s less vulnerable. The U.S. won’t be able to fly the Millennium Falcon and an X-Wing in to hit the central reactor. It will be very expensive, but quite doable if Iran accepts the cost.
It would be imprudent to assume much knowledge was lost. What takes a year the first time could take a month or two the second. Yes, some scientists have been taken out… Iran has more, and will train more still. Infrastructure, machines (centrifuges)- all can be rebuilt. As long as the Iranian regime retains power, they’ll probably be back at it. I don’t believe the U.S. position of forcing them to the table will likely work. This will push Iran further into China’s sphere, and Iran continues to produce stuff China wants to buy. Iran will have exports and will have the ability to buy things. It will remain to be seen how much of Iran’s uranium can be recovered from the sites hit… Probably a fair bit.
Iran still has an operating 1000mw nuclear fission reactor at Bushehr. Russia has been offtaking its spent fuel to mitigate proliferation concerns (plutonium is a byproduct). Will that continue? Time will tell.
I think the only way this ends, long term, is with regime change. I think the U.S. administration hopes that’s not the case, and may be blinded by a belief that everything can be a deal. I think Israel recognizes it and will continue to pressure the regime. Decapitation won’t work in that respect; kill Khamenei and his successor will probably be just as much a threat. I think Iran will not abandon the ambition for nuclear weapons without the whole system of government falling. Obviously that would cause its own very dangerous tumult.
Iran could not be allowed to get nukes. If in fact they were a short sprint away, fair enough. Let’s just not mistake this for anything more than turning the clock back a while.
GK .Dundas
Army.ca Veteran
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I tell ya,my heart is just breaking for him .....no really, seriously.
Here’s the four minute brief from this morning. Sounds like an exceptionally well planned op. No shots fired by Iran on the way in or out. The bombers had fighter escorts, and there was proactive engagement of Iranian defences- so that suggests USAF F-35s put rounds downrange in Iran.
HavokFour
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Theatrics are completed. Supreme Leader has the "support" of the Iranian people now.
Iran’s top security body to decide on Hormuz closure after parliament approval
Iran’s top security body to decide on Hormuz closure after parliament approval
Quirky
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US Navy will have something to say about that.
PrairieFella
Army.ca Veteran
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All it takes is one minestrike for shipping to be uninsurable. That is the actual leverage Iran has on the Straits of Hormuz, not any sort of naval blockade.
The Strait of Hormuz is well within range of all kinds of stuff. Iran doesn’t need to have the ability to take everything out, they just need to scare maritime insurers off.
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The question is...do the Iranians want to close the Straight of Hormuz. China purchases about 90% of Iran's oil exports and that oil flows through the Straight. Close the Straight and you lose the income. You would also be cutting off a sizeable chunk (10+%) of China's oil imports.
China backs Iran not because they share any ideological ties (other than opposing the power of the US) but rather because Iran supplies China with cheap oil. Cut off the oil and how strong will that support continue to be?
China backs Iran not because they share any ideological ties (other than opposing the power of the US) but rather because Iran supplies China with cheap oil. Cut off the oil and how strong will that support continue to be?
It’s not a light switch. They can do it selectively depending on the means. Mines, not so much, but missile attacks? Sure.
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Perhaps the CCP will use its influence to have supply oil pipelines built right through downtown Vancouver.
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Thanks for the overview @brihard - much appreciated!
... with the official transcript attached.
For those who missed it, here's the video (via the info-machine) ....
... with the official transcript attached.
Quirky
Army.ca Veteran
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Meanwhile, from the Former USSR 2.0 Politicians' Peanut Gallery ....
www.ndtv.com
www.upi.com
www.newsweek.com
www.jpost.com
Many Nations Ready To Supply Iran With Their Nuclear Warheads: Top Putin Aide
Iran Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi will reportedly meet Russian President Vladimir Putin tomorrow, amid escalating tensions in the Middle East.
www.ndtv.com
Russia: Other nations ready to supply Iran with nukes after U.S. strike - UPI.com
In the wake of President Donald Trump's strike on Iran's nuclear sites, former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev said Sunday that "a number of countries" are ready to directly supply Iran with their own nuclear weapons.
www.upi.com
Putin ally says countries now ready to supply Iran with nuclear weapons
Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev said President Donald Trump "has pushed the US into another war."
www.newsweek.com
Russia's Medvedev: Countries to arm Iran with nuclear warheads | The Jerusalem Post
Medvedev suggested that the United States’ attacks on three sites in Isfahan, Natanz, and Fordow backfired, and led to the opposite result from what US President Donald Trump had set out to achieve.
www.jpost.com
KevinB
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Medvedev isn’t the brightest bulb in the wall.
“What have the Americans accomplished with their nighttime strikes on three nuclear sites in Iran?" Medvedev questioned in a post on social media. "The enrichment of nuclear material -- and, now we can say it outright, the future production of nuclear weapons -- will continue. A number of countries are ready to directly supply Iran with their own nuclear warheads."
All that does is make it much more likely that our Administration will decided to drop something on someone somewhere else…
Furthermore a little tidbit of advice for Iran, one can absolutely bomb knowledge - as long as it’s attached to a body…
“What have the Americans accomplished with their nighttime strikes on three nuclear sites in Iran?" Medvedev questioned in a post on social media. "The enrichment of nuclear material -- and, now we can say it outright, the future production of nuclear weapons -- will continue. A number of countries are ready to directly supply Iran with their own nuclear warheads."
All that does is make it much more likely that our Administration will decided to drop something on someone somewhere else…
Furthermore a little tidbit of advice for Iran, one can absolutely bomb knowledge - as long as it’s attached to a body…
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Will they though? High oil prices are good for US oil producers, and there seems to be a pretty low GAF about the US consumer when you look at tariff impacts already.
Brad Sallows
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If a country is wholly committed to keeping Iran out of the game, it would not balk at assassinating anyone important. Anyone committed to helping Iran get in the game would have to be wholly committed.
If oil shipments are interdicted, they're interdicted for everyone.
And why risk drawing the ire of one of the world's super powers when the other has just shown where you stand with them...
Think life is stressful now, being in the sites of the US of A?
Probably infinitely more stressful having the CCP also turning their crosshairs on you at the same time...
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I think the US will keep their support for anything Iran related at it's current levels.
I don't foresee the US deploying the Army at all in this - the escalation wouldn't be worth it, and would keep the Army bogged down for years (potentially) while other future events are still likely to grow in probability
(AKA China looks at the situation and says "Oh, the US has 3 carriers around the Persian Gulf & their strike groups. And the US Army is now engaged in Iran...time to move on on Taiwan!")
