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Israeli strikes on Iran (2024, 2025, etc.)

KevinB said:
Medvedev isn’t the brightest bulb in the wall.
“What have the Americans accomplished with their nighttime strikes on three nuclear sites in Iran?" Medvedev questioned in a post on social media. "The enrichment of nuclear material -- and, now we can say it outright, the future production of nuclear weapons -- will continue. A number of countries are ready to directly supply Iran with their own nuclear warheads."

All that does is make it much more likely that our Administration will decided to drop something on someone somewhere else…

Furthermore a little tidbit of advice for Iran, one can absolutely bomb knowledge - as long as it’s attached to a body…
Click to expand...
So I guess that provides the final answer to the questions surrounding the "peaceful" nature of Iran's nuclear programme and also suggests that Russia has been aiding and abetting all along
 
YZT580 said:
So I guess that provides the final answer to the questions surrounding the "peaceful" nature of Iran's nuclear programme and also suggests that Russia has been aiding and abetting all along
Click to expand...
Even if they weren't aiding and abetting, I think they'd give much more serious consideration to doing so now...
 
brihard said:
The Pentagon did a presser this morning.

  • 7x B2s struck Iran.
  • 12x (!!!) Massive Ordnance penetrators on Fordow.
  • 2x MOP on Natanz.
  • Buncha Tomahawks on Natanz and Isfahan.
  • The B2 flight west that I and others were watching was a feint.
  • This is to be a limited engagement, the U.S. is at war with Iran’s nuclear ambitions but not Iran (snort).
  • Iran is immediately welcome back at the table and knows exactly what U.S. criteria are.
  • If Iran retaliates, they’re gonna have a bad time.
It looks like they targeted the MOPs on a ventilation shaft at Fordow to get them farther down. (I used to bullseye Womp Rats in my F-18 back home. They’re not much larger than two meters.) Dumb bastards never watched Star Wars I guess.

Various other reactions:
  • Predictable condemnation and urges towards a peaceful settlement across the Middle East. Makes sense, they have the most to lose from this blowing up.
  • British PM Starmer confirms they were advised shortly before the hits. The UK was not involved. Diego Garcia was not used.
  • Iran is of course pissed. Lots of bluster, not much concrete yet. They presumably realize how bad a bind they’re in. However, one ominous comment from them was “you cannot bomb knowledge”, or words to that effect.
  • Iran shot some more missiles at Israel, Israel in response bombed some stuff in Iran
  • So far there has not been any real reprisal from Iran. Strait of Hormuz is not as of yet affected.
Domestic political response in the U.S. is muted so far; it’s Sunday morning after all. Democrats will of course largely oppose this. The MAGA camp seems, initially, to be fractured on this. I’ve seen everything from ‘I hope the Jews and Muslims kill each other’ to ‘neither side eats bacon; not our war’, to of course full-throated (and in some cases rapidly reprogrammed) support of Trump’s actions from a camp that has been decidedly against further foreign entanglements. The ‘he can do no wrong’ effect is on full display. If Trump can indeed keep the U.S. from further involvement, political opposition from the right will simmer down quick. If this turns into more of a thing, it could pose challenges. This may inform Iran’s strategic calculus.

My thoughts: this delays the program, pretty significantly. It does not destroy it. This probably pushed the limits of the MOP, aided by poor engineering choices on Iran’s part. Iran is a country of 90 million, with GDP (PPP) over 1.7 trillion. They can dig deeper holes. The next facility will probably be much farther under a mountain, far too deep to hit, and with more intelligently designed infrastructure that’s less vulnerable. The U.S. won’t be able to fly the Millennium Falcon and an X-Wing in to hit the central reactor. It will be very expensive, but quite doable if Iran accepts the cost.

It would be imprudent to assume much knowledge was lost. What takes a year the first time could take a month or two the second. Yes, some scientists have been taken out… Iran has more, and will train more still. Infrastructure, machines (centrifuges)- all can be rebuilt. As long as the Iranian regime retains power, they’ll probably be back at it. I don’t believe the U.S. position of forcing them to the table will likely work. This will push Iran further into China’s sphere, and Iran continues to produce stuff China wants to buy. Iran will have exports and will have the ability to buy things. It will remain to be seen how much of Iran’s uranium can be recovered from the sites hit… Probably a fair bit.

Iran still has an operating 1000mw nuclear fission reactor at Bushehr. Russia has been offtaking its spent fuel to mitigate proliferation concerns (plutonium is a byproduct). Will that continue? Time will tell.

I think the only way this ends, long term, is with regime change. I think the U.S. administration hopes that’s not the case, and may be blinded by a belief that everything can be a deal. I think Israel recognizes it and will continue to pressure the regime. Decapitation won’t work in that respect; kill Khamenei and his successor will probably be just as much a threat. I think Iran will not abandon the ambition for nuclear weapons without the whole system of government falling. Obviously that would cause its own very dangerous tumult.

Iran could not be allowed to get nukes. If in fact they were a short sprint away, fair enough. Let’s just not mistake this for anything more than turning the clock back a while.
Click to expand...
Iran is struggling to find money, just to keep the lights on. Support for the IRGC/Clerics is gone, with 50,000 of the 70,000 mosques in country closed due to a lack of attendance. Most of their support came from the rural areas, but without a lot of money, people will not stay "bought". Their 3 main proxxies are either completely demolished or more less incapacitated, requiring massive resources to rebuild. A blockade of the Straits could very easily be a double edged sword, quickly depleting any incoming funds from oil exports. Particularly as they can't be sure what the US response will look like (I suspect even El Taco Supremo does not know what he would do). Rebuilding a hardened nuclear program after this setback is going to cost massive amounts and also will require launchers and missiles to make the threat viable. Iran cannot it seems trust many of its own to keep things secret. building a bomb outside of the country might be doable, but comes with all sorts of other issues.
Throw in civil unrest, a stirring Baloch population, they might not have the capacity or money to restart.
 
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Formal withdrawal from NPT may just mean the end of the Iranian military. The Fordow planning started with Biden, ending the nuclear threat will have bipartisan support among the huge group of moderates in the middle. Bleating fringers will complain for solely shortsighted partisan reasons and should be ignored.
 
brihard said:
The next facility will probably be much farther under a mountain, far too deep to hit, and with more intelligently designed infrastructure that’s less vulnerable. The U.S. won’t be able to fly the Millennium Falcon and an X-Wing in to hit the central reactor. It will be very expensive, but quite doable if Iran accepts the cost.
Click to expand...
We're gonna need a bigger bomb.
T-12-USORDMUS.JPG

brihard said:
I think the only way this ends, long term, is with regime change. I think the U.S. administration hopes that’s not the case, and may be blinded by a belief that everything can be a deal. I think Israel recognizes it and will continue to pressure the regime. Decapitation won’t work in that respect; kill Khamenei and his successor will probably be just as much a threat. I think Iran will not abandon the ambition for nuclear weapons without the whole system of government falling. Obviously that would cause its own very dangerous tumult.
Click to expand...
The Shah's son is calling for revolution. Maybe he should be installed and told "Here, your problem now."
 
YZT580 said:
So I guess that provides the final answer to the questions surrounding the "peaceful" nature of Iran's nuclear programme and also suggests that Russia has been aiding and abetting all along
Click to expand...
Ayatollah Khemeni: “FFS Demetri, shut TF up!”

The Bread Guy said:
Love for POTUS47 firing alright ...
"Pakistan nominates Trump for Nobel Peace Prize, praising ‘stellar statemanship’ " (CNN)
... love - STOPS!
"Pakistan condemns Trump's bombing of Iran - a day after nominating him for Peace Prize" (Reuters)
Click to expand...
Love is a fickle thing…
 
I heard somewhere that in 2013, John Bolton was quoted as saying that the only thing that could destroy the Fordow facility was a nuclear warhead. If this is true, then I doubt the Yanks accomplished much. I hope Bolton was wrong or misquoted.
 
Maxman1 said:
We're gonna need a bigger bomb.
T-12-USORDMUS.JPG


The Shah's son is calling for revolution. Maybe he should be installed and told "Here, your problem now."
Click to expand...
There really isn't a lot of support for the Shah in exile and return of the Peacock throne..
I'm not familiar enough with the other opposition groups to even attempt to guess who might end up running the country.
 
RangerRay said:
I heard somewhere that in 2013, John Bolton was quoted as saying that the only thing that could destroy the Fordow facility was a nuclear warhead. If this is true, then I doubt the Yanks accomplished much. I hope Bolton was wrong or misquoted.
Click to expand...

The satellite images of the aftermath are in the wild now. Going to be hard to assess any of the damage though, it being underground.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1936803239535542323
 
GK .Dundas said:
There really isn't a lot of support for the Shah in exile and return of the Peacock throne..
I'm not familiar enough with the other opposition groups to even attempt to guess who might end up running the country.
Click to expand...
One problem is that there are a lot of diverse ethnic groups in Iran; Kurds along the Iraq/Turkish border to just name one group. If Iranian control starts to break down you could see some of these groups try to break away. You could also see, for instance Kurds in Iraq/Turkey coming across the border to support their brethren.

As they say, "May you live to interesting times."
 
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