Liberal Minority Government 2025 - ???

[PrairieFella]

Frankly its troubling to the bargaining rights of all Canadians. Its not a precedent we should have seen used for something like a labour dispute. I wouldnt be shocked at mass walkouts across multiple industries.

 

[brihard]

Frankly its troubling to the bargaining rights of all Canadians. Its not a precedent we should have seen used for something like a labour dispute. I wouldnt be shocked at mass walkouts across multiple industries.

Though I don’t imagine the federal government will have the stones to do it in the current climate, in this instance I would support use of the federal power of disallowance.

 

[Brad Sallows]

First it'd be necessary to deny that there are some services that may not be withdrawn. Absent that, it's just a negotiation over how much "work to rule" can be stretched to apply pressure.

I have no problem with occupations that fit this description: "If you start this work, you will never be allowed to suspend it, unless you quit entirely."

 

[MilEME09]

The response of organized labour to this will be interesting. I would not rule out a wildcat strike by Alberta teachers. Use of Section 33 is an explicit acknowledgement that what you're doing is an otherwise unconstitutional violation of someone's rights. If you have to use Section 33 to try to compel someone's labour you're on very questionable moral standing.

Agreed, and the fines almost outright will stop anyone from violating it, the ATA sure cant take half a million dollars a day. Nor can a teacher absorb 50k day.

Alberta’s plan to force teachers back to work expected to further inflame dispute | Globalnews.ca

While the Alberta government says back to work legislation means school could resume within days, it's also expected to further inflame the dispute with teachers.

globalnews.ca

 

[HavokFour]

The response of organized labour to this will be interesting. I would not rule out a wildcat strike by Alberta teachers. Use of Section 33 is an explicit acknowledgement that what you're doing is an otherwise unconstitutional violation of someone's rights. If you have to use Section 33 to try to compel someone's labour you're on very questionable moral standing.

Well, it sounds like we might be seeing walkouts in all over the Province soon on behalf of the Teachers if they're forced back.

Union leader: UCP has 'declared war' on labour movement, and the response will be severe

"We're looking at a wide range of possible actions."

edmontonjournal.com

 

[Altair]

You don't consider Canada's position rolling over? Our "attack" is a provincial paid for attack ad which we quickly rushed to take down when it worked.

"Yeah but the other guy would be worse"

Carney has a signed bilateral deal with Mexico, trade deal with Indonesia, working on another trade deal with the Philippines, got Canada into the European defense procurement program, while Canada has seen its exports to countries like the UK surge.

All while avoiding a recession.

Also isn't signing some assine deal like Japan, the UK or EU, all of which have record high tariffs and 2 of them having collapsed already.

All in all, pretty damn good.

 

[Jarnhamar]

Carney has a signed bilateral deal with Mexico,

That "deal" was a bunch of pledges. Like Canada pledging to reach 2%GPD on Nato since 2014.

We pledged to develop long-term infrastructure links:

Pledged to establush a bilateral security dialogue to combat transnational organised crime, drug and human-trafficking, money-laundering, cybercrI enjoy.

Pledged to boost trade and investment flows: agricultural trade, critical minerals, energy, infrastructure corridors.

Oh we also pledged to spend $20M on a bunch of stuff. More random government spending.

All in all the "deal" was a bunch of promises; we've seen how good those are in the last 10 years.

53.5% Campaign promises kept between 2015 and 2025 lol

 

[Altair]

That "deal" was a bunch of pledges. Like Canada pledging to reach 2%GPD on Nato since 2014.

We pledged to develop long-term infrastructure links:

Pledged to establush a bilateral security dialogue to combat transnational organised crime, drug and human-trafficking, money-laundering, cybercrI enjoy.

Pledged to boost trade and investment flows: agricultural trade, critical minerals, energy, infrastructure corridors.

Oh we also pledged to spend $20M on a bunch of stuff. More random government spending.

All in all the "deal" was a bunch of promises; we've seen how good those are in the last 10 years.

53.5% Campaign promises kept between 2015 and 2025 lol

Sure.

Carney has a trade deal with Indonesia, working on another trade deal with the Philippines, got Canada into the European defense procurement program, while Canada has seen its exports to countries like the UK surge.

All while avoiding a recession.

Also isn't signing some assine deal like Japan, the UK or EU, all of which have record high tariffs and 2 of them having collapsed already.

All in all, pretty damn good.

 

[Jarnhamar]

Sure.

Carney has a trade deal with Indonesia, working on another trade deal with the Philippines, got Canada into the European defense procurement program, while Canada has seen its exports to countries like the UK surge.

All while avoiding a recession.

Also isn't signing some assine deal like Japan, the UK or EU, all of which have record high tariffs and 2 of them having collapsed already.

All in all, pretty damn good.

1. Trade deals don't equal guaranteed economic benefit.

Signing agreements with Indonesia or pursuing one with the Philippines is just the first step. Implementation is slow, and many of the promised tariff reductions or investment flows won’t materialize immediately. Simply having a deal on paper doesn’t automatically boost jobs or GDP.

With Indonesia, Canada’s exports are still relatively small, and non tariff barriers remain significant. So the “deal” may create symbolic value more than real economic impact in the short term.


2. European defense procurement program participation.

Being part of a program doesn’t necessarily mean Canada’s defense industry will win major contracts. Often, smaller participants gain minimal access compared to larger players. Participation is a starting point, not an economic windfall. It's a nothing burger with no name ketchup.


3. UK exports surge.

Yes, Canadian exports to the UK have grown, but the UK still runs a trade surplus with Canada. Tariff reductions under agreements like the UK TCA help, but they don’t automatically translate into a balanced or hugely positive trade outcome. Market competition and regulatory hurdles still limit gains.
Nothing burger with mayonnaise.


4. Avoiding a recession doesn't mean economic management.

Canada has dodged a recession largely because of global commodity demand and interest rate cycles, not solely because of trade deals or policy brilliance. External factors often have a bigger impact than government interventions.


BLAB.
Carney’s trade diplomacy is notable on paper, but the real economic payoff is uncertain, slow to materialize, and highly dependent on Canadian companies ability to capitalize on opportunities. It’s not as clear cut “all good”.

Edit:spelling

 

[Brad Sallows]

Carney has a signed bilateral deal with Mexico, trade deal with Indonesia, working on another trade deal with the Philippines, got Canada into the European defense procurement program, while Canada has seen its exports to countries like the UK surge.

All while avoiding a recession.

None of those things has been in effect long enough to be credited with avoiding a recession, nor can any politician be credited with doing much more than staying out of the way.

To the extent a recession is avoided, it's simply because the free parts of our free market are the agile parts, and they reacted, and the magnitude of goods and services actually subject to tariffs wasn't of a magnitude sufficient to overwhelm adaptation. It decidedly has not been a triumph of sober central planning/planners. The effects (necessarily longer term) of the latter remain to be seen.

 

[Brad Sallows]

3. UK exports surge.

Yes, Canadian exports to the UK have grown, but the UK still runs a trade surplus with Canada.

As I've written (repeatedly), "trade surplus/deficit" aka "balance of trade" is almost of no importance unless we trade with no other countries, at all. Whether by trade or capital flows, almost everything balances out.

 

[Altair]

1. Trade deals don't equal guaranteed economic benefit.

Signing agreements with Indonesia or pursuing one with the Philippines is just the first step. Implementation is slow, and many of the promised tariff reductions or investment flows won’t materialize immediately. Simply having a deal on paper doesn’t automatically boost jobs or GDP.

With Indonesia, Canada’s exports are still relatively small, and non tariff barriers remain significant. So the “deal” may create symbolic value more than real economic impact in the short term.

Well, I don't expect Carney to grab shipping containers, man a cargo ship and physically deliver exports himself, so setting the conditions for success is kinda what I expect from a PM. PP? I would expect him to be going after universities for wrong think instead of globetrotting to reduce our dependency on the USA.

2. European defense procurement program participation.

Being part of a program doesn’t necessarily mean Canada’s defense industry will win major contracts. Often, smaller participants gain minimal access compared to larger players. Participation is a starting point, not an economic windfall. It's a nothing burger with no name ketchup.

We already have a trade deal with Europe, so we cannot trade deal harder with Europe. The big juicy burger was already done between Harper and Trudeau, so if you want to say Justin Trudeau is a rockstar for signing CETA, who am I to stop you?

I just thought Carney getting us access to the EU defense procurement market, something even the UK is frozen out of would be a good thing, but sure, lets heep praise on Trudeau.

3. UK exports surge.

Yes, Canadian exports to the UK have grown, but the UK still runs a trade surplus with Canada. Tariff reductions under agreements like the UK TCA help, but they don’t automatically translate into a balanced or hugely positive trade outcome. Market competition and regulatory hurdles still limit gains.
Nothing burger with mayonnaise.

Trade deficits? Okay, fun question. Canada has no bauxite mines. Key component in aluminium production, of which we are a large producer. We import bauxite from Brazil. So let's say we run a trade deficits with Brazil because of all the bauxite we import. Is this bad? Should we cut back on bauxite imports to shrink the trade deficit with Brazil?

In practice, we import bauxite and turn it to more valuable aluminium, which is a net benifit to Canada. This is why I frankly....don't give a damn about trade surpluses and trade deficits. We have a trade surplus with the USA, are you going to stand here and say oh my god, look how much better and wealthy Canada is compared to the USA? Get real.

4. Avoiding a recession doesn't mean economic management.

Canada has dodged a recession largely because of global commodity demand and interest rate cycles, not solely because of trade deals or policy brilliance. External factors often have a bigger impact than government interventions.

Yet if we were in a recession you and those who don't like the LPC or Carney would never shut up about it.

Not in recession- global factors, interest rates, yada yada yada

In recession- ahhhhhhhh, Carney is destroying the Canadian economy!!!!

BLAB.
Carney’s trade diplomacy is notable on paper, but the real economic payoff is uncertain, slow to materialize, and highly dependent on Canadian companies ability to capitalize on opportunities. It’s not as clear cut “all good”.

Could be much worse.

 

[YZT580]

First it'd be necessary to deny that there are some services that may not be withdrawn. Absent that, it's just a negotiation over how much "work to rule" can be stretched to apply pressure.

I have no problem with occupations that fit this description: "If you start this work, you will never be allowed to suspend it, unless you quit entirely."

Definitely time to re-define the term essential service. Ontario has been blackmailed by their teachers' unions for decades now and the end result has not been pretty. Not only Alberta but BC and others are suffering from the same illness. I believe it was Carnegie that advocated for control of teachers and curriculum 100 years or more ago. Whilst the not-withstanding clause seems a little drastic, I don't think it is unjustified. Certainly the entire education problem deserves closer attention and is far more important than having a bunch of trucks parked in front of Parliament Hill.
What is the solution without using it?

 

[YZT580]

Sure.

Carney has a trade deal with Indonesia, working on another trade deal with the Philippines, got Canada into the European defense procurement program, while Canada has seen its exports to countries like the UK surge.

All while avoiding a recession.

Also isn't signing some assine deal like Japan, the UK or EU, all of which have record high tariffs and 2 of them having collapsed already.

All in all, pretty damn good.

Standard political action: jump in your pretty airplane and fly to lots of different places, glad-handing all the leaders and signing a number of potential but not necessarily beneficial agreements. Meanwhile, the export of our principal resources (oil and minerals) languishes on the backburner whilst countries are signing agreements to actually harvest the stuff.

 

[Altair]

Standard political action: jump in your pretty airplane and fly to lots of different places, glad-handing all the leaders and signing a number of potential but not necessarily beneficial agreements. Meanwhile, the export of our principal resources (oil and minerals) languishes on the backburner whilst countries are signing agreements to actually harvest the stuff.

So Trudeau who signed TPP, CETA and CUSMA is the gold standard of getting things done. Good to know

 

[YZT580]

So Trudeau who signed TPP, CETA and CUSMA is the gold standard in giving the appearance of getting things done. Good to know

there, I fixed that for you

 

[Altair]

there, I fixed that for you

Oh, I'm sorry. Did he not sign the TPP, CETA and CUSMA trade deals?

 

[Brad Sallows]

Oh, I'm sorry. Did he not sign the TPP, CETA and CUSMA trade deals?

"These go to 11."

 

[YZT580]

Oh, I'm sorry. Did he not sign the TPP, CETA and CUSMA trade deals?

The TPP fell apart, its successor harmed a lot of small businesses that mfg auto parts. CETA, if my memory serves, was initiated and approved by Stephen Harper long before Justin came on the scene. But I will give you CUSMA so 1 out of 3 isn't bad. But the comment made wasn't about deal making it was all about jetting around the globe and having your picture taken and Justin was really good at that. He often skipped town when the pressure was on over one or more of his nefarious escapades and for that he wins the gold crown. Now I am not saying at all that Carney is dodging bad publicity. Quite the contrary. He is using the aircraft as a backdrop to demonstrate how hard he is working for Canada. Most of the issues so far would have been initiated months ago, probably under Justin and are just now coming to fruition. Carney signs the paper and takes the bow just as Justin did for CETA. Not saying it is wrong or bad but you have a habit of focusing on only part of the comments and ignoring the ones that maybe irritate a little bit which is too bad because you do have a lot to say

 

[Altair]

The TPP fell apart, its successor harmed a lot of small businesses that mfg auto parts.

What? TPP is still in effect, in fact the UK joined in 2023 allowing us a free trade deal with the UK where we couldn't agree on one before.

As for auto part manufacturers, way country is harming Canadian auto workers?

Only two big auto makers out of the list, Australia, Brunei, Canada, Chile, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore, Vietnam, and the United Kingdom, are Japan and Mexico. Mexico already has CUSMA, so Japan? I'm so confused. But yeah, a Trudeau deal, too bad.

CETA, if my memory serves, was initiated and approved by Stephen Harper long before Justin came on the scene.

Trade deals can take up to a decade to come to fruition but Freeland did some heavy lifting in Europe on CETA so no, Justin Trudeau gets credit for this one too.

But I will give you CUSMA so 3 out of 3 isn't bad.

Fixed that for you.

But the comment made wasn't about deal making it was all about jetting around the globe and having your picture taken and Justin was really good at that. He often skipped town when the pressure was on over one or more of his nefarious escapades and for that he wins the gold crown.

Be that as it may, he did get or finish 3 trade deals.

Now I am not saying at all that Carney is dodging bad publicity. Quite the contrary. He is using the aircraft as a backdrop to demonstrate how hard he is working for Canada. Most of the issues so far would have been initiated months ago, probably under Justin and are just now coming to fruition. Carney signs the paper and takes the bow just as Justin did for CETA.

Some things certainly, others are new. But what do we expect PMs to do? They continue on with what their predecessors got started, I stated as much in my earlier comment, Trudeau and Harper both worked on CETA.

On the flip side, when Carney or Trudeau get on a plan and lay the groundwork for a future deal, it gets called a nothing burger. Which, if those are nothing burgers, and only the big trade deals count, well, Trudeau was the one serving up all the big juicy burgers. Which sounds stupid, but that's the logic thats being presented.

Not saying it is wrong or bad but you have a habit of focusing on only part of the comments and ignoring the ones that maybe irritate a little bit which is too bad because you do have a lot to say

I learn from the best.

Many a time I put out a wall of text only for it to be snipped into one line or paragraph of response. When in Rome.