Liberal Minority Government 2025 - ???

[brihard]

It's a pretty high bar that MAG might not feel it can clear (without knowing the text of the decision):

R. v. Bellusci, 2012 SCC 44, [2012] 2 S.C.R. 509

Yup- a very high bar indeed. And without seeing the written decision, tough to gauge. But the offences with which these three are charged are absolutely heinous, so I could see the “injustice” argument being made.

 

[Edward Campbell]

Brutal. Its such an easy win to buy trucks. Its a scandal that its taken this long and those responsible should be held accountable. If we cant even buy trucks in a decade + for the regs and reserves, how can we trust these people to buy advanced armament and equipment?

The CF can have, quickly, whatever cabinet decides it wants the CF to have - remember when we got Leopard 2 tanks and C-17s? There is nothing illegal or even difficult about sole-source, directed contracts. It is solely and simply a matter of political will.

 

[Navy_Pete]

The CF can have, quickly, whatever cabinet decides it wants the CF to have - remember when we got Leopard 2 tanks and C-17s? There is nothing illegal or even difficult about sole-source, directed contracts. It is solely and simply a matter of political will.

I really wish they would apply the national security exemption more option, it's the normal procurement requirements and terms of international treaties around normal government procurement that add in a lot of delays and prescriptive procurement requirements that dont' really make sense for a lot of defence procurements.

 

[YZT580]

I really wish they would apply the national security exemption more option, it's the normal procurement requirements and terms of international treaties around normal government procurement that add in a lot of delays and prescriptive procurement requirements that dont' really make sense for a lot of defence procurements.

we are talking about a pickup truck or suv right? What is there to Canadianize? Leave the radio slot blank for installation at the base and get a custom paint job. Easy/peasy.

 

[Navy_Pete]

we are talking about a pickup truck or suv right? What is there to Canadianize? Leave the radio slot blank for installation at the base and get a custom paint job. Easy/peasy.

You don't need to Canadianize anything, it's just the size of the contract and dollar value means all kinds of international trade agreements apply, which adds a lot of process. The dollar values also adds a lot of internal processes, which is likely most of the delay, but defence doesn't have the same risk/complexity scaling with money compared to any other department so the normal GoC processes get way to onerous for simple procurements with big price tags, just due to scope and volume.

Edit: For a bit of context, was talking to someone at the executive level another department many years ago that was nervous about the size and dollar value of their project, and realized it was something like $5M total. I had just signed a $3Mish monthly invoice for a project a few months before that as a newly OFP qualified two ringer working as a deputy PM and no one batted an eye, or even paid any real attention because it was too small.

 

[CBH99]

Why not?
A persons 20s should include flexibility and a willingness to try new things and explore the world. By the time I was 27 I had already lived in 5 countries. In Canada I had lived in Windsor, London and Ottawa. I came from a middle class background, not lower not higher middle class, just middle class. A mother who went back to work par time when my brother and I were older, a father who after high school worked at the Windsor Salt Mine, CPR, moved out to Calgary for 9 months for work, hated it, moved back to Windsor, got work at Walker Metals and then at the old Plant 3 in Windsor Chrysler. He went to St Clair College after few years for night school to become an accountant and then moved over to the Admin Building on Pillette Rd as an accountant for Chrysler.
If I was 22-25yrs old with a decent undergrad, I’d move to Southeast Asia for work - Vietnam, Australia, New Zealand maybe Singapore, Malaysia. The Gulf States are always looking for talent in their businesses. Possibly look at Chile or Uruguay. Lastly, still lots of work in the US with a TN Visa, just move to New England if you don’t like Trump, closest area of the US that thinks/acts like Canada.

I totally know what you're saying, I would just point out that depending on where someone is in the country, the way Canada thinks/acts can be quite different.

(Example - the way people around Edmonton think/act is very different than how people think/act in Ottawa. Or Toronto. Or Quebec City. Or Moncton. Etc)

 

[Czech_pivo]

I totally know what you're saying, I would just point out that depending on where someone is in the country, the way Canada thinks/acts can be quite different.

(Example - the way people around Edmonton think/act is very different than how people think/act in Ottawa. Or Toronto. Or Quebec City. Or Moncton. Etc)

Excellent point - thanks for pointing that out!

 

[MilEME09]

Ill be interested to see how the feds respond to the AB gov using the NWC to force teachers back to work.

Alberta government orders teachers back to work using notwithstanding clause

Alberta government orders teachers back to work using notwithstanding clause

The Alberta government has ordered more than 50,000 teachers back to work through legislation tabled Monday afternoon using the notwithstanding clause.

www.ctvnews.ca

 

[brihard]

Ill be interested to see how the feds respond to the AB gov using the NWC to force teachers back to work.

Alberta government orders teachers back to work using notwithstanding clause

Alberta government orders teachers back to work using notwithstanding clause

The Alberta government has ordered more than 50,000 teachers back to work through legislation tabled Monday afternoon using the notwithstanding clause.

www.ctvnews.ca

The response of organized labour to this will be interesting. I would not rule out a wildcat strike by Alberta teachers. Use of Section 33 is an explicit acknowledgement that what you're doing is an otherwise unconstitutional violation of someone's rights. If you have to use Section 33 to try to compel someone's labour you're on very questionable moral standing.

 

[PrairieFella]

Frankly its troubling to the bargaining rights of all Canadians. Its not a precedent we should have seen used for something like a labour dispute. I wouldnt be shocked at mass walkouts across multiple industries.

 

[brihard]

Frankly its troubling to the bargaining rights of all Canadians. Its not a precedent we should have seen used for something like a labour dispute. I wouldnt be shocked at mass walkouts across multiple industries.

Though I don’t imagine the federal government will have the stones to do it in the current climate, in this instance I would support use of the federal power of disallowance.

 

[Brad Sallows]

First it'd be necessary to deny that there are some services that may not be withdrawn. Absent that, it's just a negotiation over how much "work to rule" can be stretched to apply pressure.

I have no problem with occupations that fit this description: "If you start this work, you will never be allowed to suspend it, unless you quit entirely."

 

[MilEME09]

The response of organized labour to this will be interesting. I would not rule out a wildcat strike by Alberta teachers. Use of Section 33 is an explicit acknowledgement that what you're doing is an otherwise unconstitutional violation of someone's rights. If you have to use Section 33 to try to compel someone's labour you're on very questionable moral standing.

Agreed, and the fines almost outright will stop anyone from violating it, the ATA sure cant take half a million dollars a day. Nor can a teacher absorb 50k day.

Alberta’s plan to force teachers back to work expected to further inflame dispute | Globalnews.ca

While the Alberta government says back to work legislation means school could resume within days, it's also expected to further inflame the dispute with teachers.

globalnews.ca

 

[HavokFour]

The response of organized labour to this will be interesting. I would not rule out a wildcat strike by Alberta teachers. Use of Section 33 is an explicit acknowledgement that what you're doing is an otherwise unconstitutional violation of someone's rights. If you have to use Section 33 to try to compel someone's labour you're on very questionable moral standing.

Well, it sounds like we might be seeing walkouts in all over the Province soon on behalf of the Teachers if they're forced back.

Union leader: UCP has 'declared war' on labour movement, and the response will be severe

"We're looking at a wide range of possible actions."

edmontonjournal.com

 

[Altair]

You don't consider Canada's position rolling over? Our "attack" is a provincial paid for attack ad which we quickly rushed to take down when it worked.

"Yeah but the other guy would be worse"

Carney has a signed bilateral deal with Mexico, trade deal with Indonesia, working on another trade deal with the Philippines, got Canada into the European defense procurement program, while Canada has seen its exports to countries like the UK surge.

All while avoiding a recession.

Also isn't signing some assine deal like Japan, the UK or EU, all of which have record high tariffs and 2 of them having collapsed already.

All in all, pretty damn good.

 

[Jarnhamar]

Carney has a signed bilateral deal with Mexico,

That "deal" was a bunch of pledges. Like Canada pledging to reach 2%GPD on Nato since 2014.

We pledged to develop long-term infrastructure links:

Pledged to establush a bilateral security dialogue to combat transnational organised crime, drug and human-trafficking, money-laundering, cybercrI enjoy.

Pledged to boost trade and investment flows: agricultural trade, critical minerals, energy, infrastructure corridors.

Oh we also pledged to spend $20M on a bunch of stuff. More random government spending.

All in all the "deal" was a bunch of promises; we've seen how good those are in the last 10 years.

53.5% Campaign promises kept between 2015 and 2025 lol

 

[Altair]

That "deal" was a bunch of pledges. Like Canada pledging to reach 2%GPD on Nato since 2014.

We pledged to develop long-term infrastructure links:

Pledged to establush a bilateral security dialogue to combat transnational organised crime, drug and human-trafficking, money-laundering, cybercrI enjoy.

Pledged to boost trade and investment flows: agricultural trade, critical minerals, energy, infrastructure corridors.

Oh we also pledged to spend $20M on a bunch of stuff. More random government spending.

All in all the "deal" was a bunch of promises; we've seen how good those are in the last 10 years.

53.5% Campaign promises kept between 2015 and 2025 lol

Sure.

Carney has a trade deal with Indonesia, working on another trade deal with the Philippines, got Canada into the European defense procurement program, while Canada has seen its exports to countries like the UK surge.

All while avoiding a recession.

Also isn't signing some assine deal like Japan, the UK or EU, all of which have record high tariffs and 2 of them having collapsed already.

All in all, pretty damn good.

 

[Jarnhamar]

Sure.

Carney has a trade deal with Indonesia, working on another trade deal with the Philippines, got Canada into the European defense procurement program, while Canada has seen its exports to countries like the UK surge.

All while avoiding a recession.

Also isn't signing some assine deal like Japan, the UK or EU, all of which have record high tariffs and 2 of them having collapsed already.

All in all, pretty damn good.

1. Trade deals don't equal guaranteed economic benefit.

Signing agreements with Indonesia or pursuing one with the Philippines is just the first step. Implementation is slow, and many of the promised tariff reductions or investment flows won’t materialize immediately. Simply having a deal on paper doesn’t automatically boost jobs or GDP.

With Indonesia, Canada’s exports are still relatively small, and non tariff barriers remain significant. So the “deal” may create symbolic value more than real economic impact in the short term.


2. European defense procurement program participation.

Being part of a program doesn’t necessarily mean Canada’s defense industry will win major contracts. Often, smaller participants gain minimal access compared to larger players. Participation is a starting point, not an economic windfall. It's a nothing burger with no name ketchup.


3. UK exports surge.

Yes, Canadian exports to the UK have grown, but the UK still runs a trade surplus with Canada. Tariff reductions under agreements like the UK TCA help, but they don’t automatically translate into a balanced or hugely positive trade outcome. Market competition and regulatory hurdles still limit gains.
Nothing burger with mayonnaise.


4. Avoiding a recession doesn't mean economic management.

Canada has dodged a recession largely because of global commodity demand and interest rate cycles, not solely because of trade deals or policy brilliance. External factors often have a bigger impact than government interventions.


BLAB.
Carney’s trade diplomacy is notable on paper, but the real economic payoff is uncertain, slow to materialize, and highly dependent on Canadian companies ability to capitalize on opportunities. It’s not as clear cut “all good”.

Edit:spelling

 

[Brad Sallows]

Carney has a signed bilateral deal with Mexico, trade deal with Indonesia, working on another trade deal with the Philippines, got Canada into the European defense procurement program, while Canada has seen its exports to countries like the UK surge.

All while avoiding a recession.

None of those things has been in effect long enough to be credited with avoiding a recession, nor can any politician be credited with doing much more than staying out of the way.

To the extent a recession is avoided, it's simply because the free parts of our free market are the agile parts, and they reacted, and the magnitude of goods and services actually subject to tariffs wasn't of a magnitude sufficient to overwhelm adaptation. It decidedly has not been a triumph of sober central planning/planners. The effects (necessarily longer term) of the latter remain to be seen.

 

[Brad Sallows]

3. UK exports surge.

Yes, Canadian exports to the UK have grown, but the UK still runs a trade surplus with Canada.

As I've written (repeatedly), "trade surplus/deficit" aka "balance of trade" is almost of no importance unless we trade with no other countries, at all. Whether by trade or capital flows, almost everything balances out.