Liberal Minority Government 2025 - ???

[Altair]

1. Trade deals don't equal guaranteed economic benefit.

Signing agreements with Indonesia or pursuing one with the Philippines is just the first step. Implementation is slow, and many of the promised tariff reductions or investment flows won’t materialize immediately. Simply having a deal on paper doesn’t automatically boost jobs or GDP.

With Indonesia, Canada’s exports are still relatively small, and non tariff barriers remain significant. So the “deal” may create symbolic value more than real economic impact in the short term.

Well, I don't expect Carney to grab shipping containers, man a cargo ship and physically deliver exports himself, so setting the conditions for success is kinda what I expect from a PM. PP? I would expect him to be going after universities for wrong think instead of globetrotting to reduce our dependency on the USA.

2. European defense procurement program participation.

Being part of a program doesn’t necessarily mean Canada’s defense industry will win major contracts. Often, smaller participants gain minimal access compared to larger players. Participation is a starting point, not an economic windfall. It's a nothing burger with no name ketchup.

We already have a trade deal with Europe, so we cannot trade deal harder with Europe. The big juicy burger was already done between Harper and Trudeau, so if you want to say Justin Trudeau is a rockstar for signing CETA, who am I to stop you?

I just thought Carney getting us access to the EU defense procurement market, something even the UK is frozen out of would be a good thing, but sure, lets heep praise on Trudeau.

3. UK exports surge.

Yes, Canadian exports to the UK have grown, but the UK still runs a trade surplus with Canada. Tariff reductions under agreements like the UK TCA help, but they don’t automatically translate into a balanced or hugely positive trade outcome. Market competition and regulatory hurdles still limit gains.
Nothing burger with mayonnaise.

Trade deficits? Okay, fun question. Canada has no bauxite mines. Key component in aluminium production, of which we are a large producer. We import bauxite from Brazil. So let's say we run a trade deficits with Brazil because of all the bauxite we import. Is this bad? Should we cut back on bauxite imports to shrink the trade deficit with Brazil?

In practice, we import bauxite and turn it to more valuable aluminium, which is a net benifit to Canada. This is why I frankly....don't give a damn about trade surpluses and trade deficits. We have a trade surplus with the USA, are you going to stand here and say oh my god, look how much better and wealthy Canada is compared to the USA? Get real.

4. Avoiding a recession doesn't mean economic management.

Canada has dodged a recession largely because of global commodity demand and interest rate cycles, not solely because of trade deals or policy brilliance. External factors often have a bigger impact than government interventions.

Yet if we were in a recession you and those who don't like the LPC or Carney would never shut up about it.

Not in recession- global factors, interest rates, yada yada yada

In recession- ahhhhhhhh, Carney is destroying the Canadian economy!!!!

BLAB.
Carney’s trade diplomacy is notable on paper, but the real economic payoff is uncertain, slow to materialize, and highly dependent on Canadian companies ability to capitalize on opportunities. It’s not as clear cut “all good”.

Could be much worse.

 

[YZT580]

First it'd be necessary to deny that there are some services that may not be withdrawn. Absent that, it's just a negotiation over how much "work to rule" can be stretched to apply pressure.

I have no problem with occupations that fit this description: "If you start this work, you will never be allowed to suspend it, unless you quit entirely."

Definitely time to re-define the term essential service. Ontario has been blackmailed by their teachers' unions for decades now and the end result has not been pretty. Not only Alberta but BC and others are suffering from the same illness. I believe it was Carnegie that advocated for control of teachers and curriculum 100 years or more ago. Whilst the not-withstanding clause seems a little drastic, I don't think it is unjustified. Certainly the entire education problem deserves closer attention and is far more important than having a bunch of trucks parked in front of Parliament Hill.
What is the solution without using it?

 

[YZT580]

Sure.

Carney has a trade deal with Indonesia, working on another trade deal with the Philippines, got Canada into the European defense procurement program, while Canada has seen its exports to countries like the UK surge.

All while avoiding a recession.

Also isn't signing some assine deal like Japan, the UK or EU, all of which have record high tariffs and 2 of them having collapsed already.

All in all, pretty damn good.

Standard political action: jump in your pretty airplane and fly to lots of different places, glad-handing all the leaders and signing a number of potential but not necessarily beneficial agreements. Meanwhile, the export of our principal resources (oil and minerals) languishes on the backburner whilst countries are signing agreements to actually harvest the stuff.

 

[Altair]

Standard political action: jump in your pretty airplane and fly to lots of different places, glad-handing all the leaders and signing a number of potential but not necessarily beneficial agreements. Meanwhile, the export of our principal resources (oil and minerals) languishes on the backburner whilst countries are signing agreements to actually harvest the stuff.

So Trudeau who signed TPP, CETA and CUSMA is the gold standard of getting things done. Good to know