All Things AB Separatism (split fm Liberal Minority Government 2025 - ???)

[QV]

The LPC knows if Quebec left they the LPC would likely never be the natural governing party again and lose way more than they win. Likewise they know if Alberta left, that would solidify their hold on power in the rest of Canada and they would probably never lose again. This can explain why one province is courted and the other pushed.

 

[Infanteer]

The LPC knows if Quebec left they the LPC would likely never be the natural governing party again and lose way more than they win. Likewise they know if Alberta left, that would solidify their hold on power in the rest of Canada and they would probably never lose again. This can explain why one province is courted and the other pushed.

I just ran the numbers for 2026. With Quebec, the Liberals won 49% of the total seats available. Without Quebec, they would have won 47% of the total seats available.

To double check, I ran Justin Trudeau's 2015 majority win through the same test. With Quebec, the Liberals won 54% of the seats available. Without Quebec, they would have won 55% of the seats available.

Not sure your hypothesis tracks.

 

[QV]

You could test the theory in AI. Electoral results in Canada if Quebec separated vs Alberta. If Quebec left, Cons would dominate politics, if Alberta left LPC would dominate.

 

[Halifax Tar]

You could test the theory in AI. Electoral results in Canada if Quebec separated vs Alberta. If Quebec left, Cons would dominate politics, if Alberta left LPC would dominate.

Interesting idea:

Question I posed:
What would the 2025 Canadian Federal election have looked like if Quebec had separated from Canada in 1995 ?
(Using Copilot)

Quebec Separation:

Bottom line (if you want the “headline”)​

If you only remove Quebec’s 78 seats and keep the rest of 2025 as-is, the election most plausibly becomes:

Conservative minority government in a 265-seat House, with a 133-seat majority threshold, and NDP+Green holding the balance.

But if you allow realistic 30-year political evolution after a 1995 separation, either major party could plausibly win a majority, and the Liberals’ entire governing coalition would likely look different (more Ontario/metro-Canada focused), while the Conservatives might benefit from a lower majority bar and a more purely RoC battleground.

Question I posed:
What would the 2025 Canadian Federal election have looked like if Alberta had separated from Canada in 1995 ?
(Using Copilot)

Alberta Separation:

If Alberta had separated in 1995 and we apply the simplest, most defensible arithmetic to the real 2025 results:

The Liberals would likely have won a majority government in 2025, because removing Alberta subtracts 34 Conservative seats while lowering the majority threshold to 154 in a 306-seat House.

 

[Remius]

So the new theory is that the LPC wants Alberta to leave so it can stay in power?


FML. This keeps getting dumber.

 

[QV]

Interesting idea:

Question I posed:
What would the 2025 Canadian Federal election have looked like if Quebec had separated from Canada in 1995 ?
(Using Copilot)

Quebec Separation:


Question I posed:
What would the 2025 Canadian Federal election have looked like if Alberta had separated from Canada in 1995 ?
(Using Copilot)

Alberta Separation:

There is no disputing the LPC have a large base of support in Que, while the CPC have a large base of support in AB. Removing one or the other will have an impact.

 

[PrairieFella]

So the new theory is that the LPC wants Alberta to leave so it can stay in power?


FML. This keeps getting dumber.

Idiocracy is more and more a documentary

 

[QV]

So the new theory is that the LPC wants Alberta to leave so it can stay in power?


FML. This keeps getting dumber.

It is reasonable to believe the LPC would help those who help them and not help those who do not help them. There are plenty of receipts.

We're talking about a party who's Prime Minister skipped naming one specific province during the country's 150th celebration. This is in the LPC DNA at this point.

 

[Halifax Tar]

So the new theory is that the LPC wants Alberta to leave so it can stay in power?

FML. This keeps getting dumber.

I don't think that's what AI told me.

But! I did just ask this question:
Would it benefit the Liberal Party of Canada is Alberta separated from Canada ?

Copilot says:

Yes — removing Alberta from the federation would almost certainly benefit the Liberal Party of Canada electorally, based on publicly available 2025 seat‑distribution data and political analysis.

Below is a clear, evidence‑based explanation using the sources available.

---

​

In the 2025 federal election, Alberta voted:

• Conservative: 34 of 37 seats
• Liberals: only 2 seats
• Liberals received 27.9% of Alberta’s votes but only ~5% of its seats [chatnewstoday.ca]

This reflects a longstanding pattern: Alberta consistently delivers the Conservatives a large “seat bonus,” because first‑past‑the‑post heavily magnifies regional majorities.

So from a strictly electoral‑math standpoint:

Alberta’s presence overwhelmingly advantages the Conservatives and disadvantages the Liberals.

---

​

If Alberta left Canada:

• The Conservatives would immediately lose 34 seats they can normally rely on.
• The Liberals would lose only 2 seats.

Since federal election outcomes depend on national seat counts, the effect is not subtle:

Canada without Alberta would produce a House of Commons far more favourable to Liberal governments.
This matches proportional‑representation simulations: when the Alberta vote is modeled proportionally, the Liberals would have gained far more seats. Even under current rules, Alberta’s departure eliminates a region where the Liberals rarely benefit from vote share. [chatnewstoday.ca]

---

​

If Alberta left, federal power would shift toward:

• Ontario (Liberals competitive)
• Quebec (Liberals competitive)
• British Columbia (three‑way contests where Liberals are strong in major metros)

These three provinces already elect most Liberal governments. Removing Alberta:

• lowers the national majority threshold
• increases the weight of regions where the Liberals are strongest
• reduces the structural imbalance created by Alberta's lopsided Conservative victories.

---

​

According to political analysis (MQO Research):

• First‑past‑the‑post “creates distortion” by amplifying regional sweeps.
• Alberta is one of the most extreme examples, where Conservatives win far more seats than their vote percentage would suggest.
• This distortion fuels Western alienation, but electorally it artificially boosts the Conservative seat count. [chatnewstoday.ca]

Thus:

Removing Alberta removes the single largest structural obstacle to Liberal national majorities.

---

​

After the Liberals secured a fourth term, Alberta separatist sentiment surged, driven largely by opposition to Liberal policy direction. About 27.9% of Albertans voted Liberal, but the province still overwhelmingly elects Conservatives. [thehub.ca]

This indicates that:

• Alberta consistently votes against the Liberal Party
• Alberta’s exit would remove a population that is strongly anti‑Liberal in federal contests
• The remainder of the federation is far more favourable terrain for Liberals

---

Final Answer​

Would the Liberal Party benefit if Alberta separated?​

Electorally: YES — dramatically.​

Removing Alberta from Confederation would:

• strip the Conservatives of ~34 guaranteed seats
• cost the Liberals only ~2 seats
• make Liberal majorities significantly easier
• shift national power toward provinces where Liberals are already strong
• reduce the regional imbalance that currently disadvantages the Liberal Party

Therefore, from a purely electoral and strategic standpoint, Alberta’s separation would strongly benefit the Liberal Party of Canada.

 

[Halifax Tar]

Next I asked:

Would the Liberal party of Canada be happy if Alberta separated from Canada ?
Copilot

Short answer: Politically, yes — the Liberal Party of Canada would almost certainly benefit if Alberta separated.
But publicly, no — the Liberals could not and would not celebrate Alberta leaving, because secession is a national‑unity crisis, not a partisan win.

Below is a clear explanation grounded in the evidence available.

---

1. Alberta is overwhelmingly Conservative — removing it boosts Liberal electoral success​

Alberta delivered 34 of its 37 federal seats to the Conservatives in the 2025 federal election, while Liberals won only 2 seats in the province.
This means: [electionguide.org]

• Alberta is a massive source of Conservative parliamentary strength.
• Alberta contributes almost no seat gains for the Liberals.

From an electoral-math standpoint:

Losing Alberta would remove a major Conservative stronghold but barely affect Liberal representation.

This structural effect is reinforced by expert analysis showing that Canada’s first‑past‑the‑post system amplifies Alberta’s Conservative dominance, heavily disadvantaging Liberals. [electionguide.org]

---

2. Without Alberta, Liberals win more easily​

Political analysis indicates that Alberta’s overwhelming Conservative votes create a regional “blue wall” that makes it far harder for the Liberals to win national majorities. Removing Alberta would eliminate this distortion and shift political weight to Ontario, Quebec, and B.C.—regions where Liberals are far more competitive. [electionguide.org]

This is why many analysts note that Canada’s regional sweeps (including Alberta’s Conservative bloc) fuel alienation and distort national outcomes. Reducing that distortion would structurally benefit Liberal seat counts.

In a Canada-without-Alberta scenario, Liberal governments would be much easier to form.

---

3. Alberta shows high opposition to Liberal governments​

The surge in separatist talk itself reflects Alberta’s strong opposition to Liberal federal policy. After the Liberals secured a fourth consecutive term, Alberta separatism gained traction. Many Albertans oppose Liberal climate policies, environmental regulations, and federal energy decisions. [tsa.ca]

The political reality is:

• Alberta votes heavily against the Liberal Party.
• Alberta’s presence in federal elections consistently suppresses Liberal seat totals.

This strengthens the conclusion that a Liberal Party strategist would recognize Alberta’s departure as electorally beneficial.

---

4. But would the Liberal Party​

Publicly? Absolutely not.​

No Canadian federal party can support or “celebrate” the breakup of the country.
The Clarity Act and Supreme Court rulings treat secession as a constitutional emergency requiring negotiation, not something any party would welcome. [jstor.org], [daveberta.ca]

Supporting separation would:

• undermine national unity,
• destroy the party’s credibility across the country,
• contradict the Liberals' long-standing identity as the party of federalism and national cohesion.

Privately or strategically? The math favours them.​

Strategically, the loss of Alberta’s Conservative seat bloc makes it easier for the Liberals to:

• win elections,
• form majority governments, and
• govern without the near-certainty of strong Conservative opposition from the West.

So the realistic answer is:

Electoral strategists inside the Liberal Party would recognize Alberta’s separation as advantageous for winning elections, but the party itself could never publicly or officially be “happy” about a province leaving Canada.

---

Final Answer​

Electorally, Alberta separating would benefit the Liberal Party.
Politically and publicly, the Liberal Party would not and could not express happiness about such an event.

 

[PrairieFella]

Chatgpt cant replace critical thinking. An iota of that would tell you Alberta separating would be a disaster for the LPC as it would be a disaster for Canada writ-large. Are some of you truly so partisan you think the feds would welcome separatism to "own the cons"? Are we really debasing ourselves to the level of conspiracy thinking and tribalism that has destroyed the American political system?

 

[Jarnhamar]

Chatgpt cant replace critical thinking. An iota of that would tell you Alberta separating would be a disaster for the LPC as it would be a disaster for Canada writ-large.

Covid19 and Trump 2.0 are arguably disasters; both benefited the LPC considerably.

 

[Brad Sallows]

So the new theory is that the LPC wants Alberta to leave so it can stay in power?


FML. This keeps getting dumber.

Who first proposed that theory?

[Seen.]

 

[The Bread Guy]

I don't think that's what AI told me.

But! I did just ask this question:
Would it benefit the Liberal Party of Canada is Alberta separated from Canada ?

Copilot says ...

Like search engines, different AI systems'll give you a slightly different answer to that exact same question - this from perlexity.ai ...

"In narrow, partisan seat-count terms, yes, Alberta’s departure would almost certainly benefit the federal Liberal Party, but it would come at the cost of enormous national, economic, and long‑term political downsides for both the party and the country.

Why it likely helps Liberal seat math​

• Alberta sends 34 MPs to the House of Commons, and 30 of those seats were Conservative in 2021, with only 2 Liberals and 2 NDP.
• Removing Alberta from the map would remove almost entirely Conservative-held seats, shrinking the Conservative caucus far more than the Liberal one.
• The Liberals’ core strength is in Ontario, Quebec, Atlantic Canada, and major urban centres, where they win many more ridings and a much higher share of the vote than in Alberta.
• Under first‑past‑the‑post, losing a province where you are already weak but your main rival is dominant tends to make your national seat share look stronger, not weaker.

A rough illustration: in 2021 the Liberals won 160 of 338 seats nationally (minority); Alberta accounted for only 2 of those 160, while Conservatives held 30 of Alberta’s 34 seats. Removing Alberta would barely dent the Liberal total but would cut a large block from the Conservative bench, making it easier for Liberals to form minorities or even edge toward a majority in the “rest of Canada” map.

Big reasons it would still be bad for the Liberals​

• The Liberals brand themselves as a pan‑Canadian, national‑unity party; presiding over, or advocating for, the loss of a province would badly damage that identity and credibility elsewhere in the country.
• Alberta is economically central (energy, finance, head offices); separation would mean economic disruption, a smaller federal tax base, and difficult negotiations on pipelines, markets, and climate policy goals that Liberals care about.
• The political backlash in other Western and resource‑producing regions could further weaken Liberal prospects there, even if the arithmetic in the remaining House looks better.

Bottom line​

On paper, taking Alberta’s mostly Conservative seats off the board would make it easier for the Liberals to win and hold federal power in the remaining Canada. In practice, any real move toward Alberta separation would undermine the Liberals’ claim to be a national governing party and would create economic, constitutional, and unity crises that are profoundly against their broader interests and values."

... this from Chat GPT ....

"The surface argument (why some people think it​

People sometimes say separation would help the Liberal Party of Canada because:

• Alberta votes overwhelmingly Conservative federally
  The Liberals usually win very few seats there.
• Losing Alberta MPs wouldn’t change Liberal caucus math much
  Most Liberal majorities or minorities don’t depend on Alberta seats.
• Policy friction would disappear
  Fights over pipelines, carbon pricing, and energy policy would be gone.

On paper, that can look like “less resistance, same governing power.”

But that’s a very shallow read.

---

The deeper reality (why it would hurt the Liberals)​

1. A Canada without Alberta would be a much smaller, weaker federation.​

The Liberals brand themselves as:

• Nation-builders
• Defenders of Canadian unity
• Federalists, not sectionalists

Presiding over the breakup of the country would permanently stain that image—even among Liberal voters in Ontario, Quebec, and Atlantic Canada.

---

2. Alberta contributes massively to:​

• Federal revenues
• Equalization sustainability
• Energy exports and trade leverage

A poorer, more fragile Canada means:

• Harder budgets
• Tougher social-program choices
• Fewer tools for Liberal priorities

That’s bad politics for a party that runs on national programs.

---

3. If Alberta can leave, why not Quebec—again?​

Federalist voters in Quebec (a key Liberal base) would get nervous fast.
The Liberals have spent decades positioning themselves as the party that keeps Canada together—especially against separatism.

---

4. Yes, Alberta mostly votes Conservative—but:​

• Liberals still need national credibility to win Ontario and Quebec
• Losing an entire province shifts seat distribution in unpredictable ways
• Conservative dominance could actually increase elsewhere in a destabilized Canada

It’s not “fewer enemies,” it’s a reshuffled battlefield.

---

5. Once a country breaks up:​

• Politics becomes more regional
• Coalition-building gets harder
• Big national projects become riskier

That environment historically benefits regionalist or conservative movements, not broad centre-left parties like the Liberals.

---

Bottom line​

Even if Alberta separation might slightly simplify short-term parliamentary math, it would be:

• A legitimacy nightmare
• An economic hit
• A unity crisis multiplier
• A long-term electoral and strategic loss
  

The Liberal Party gains far more from keeping Alberta inside Canada—even if it votes against them—than from losing it."

... and this from Elon's baby, Grok:

The hypothetical scenario of Alberta separating from Canada is a complex one, driven largely by longstanding tensions between the province's conservative-leaning politics and federal Liberal governments' policies on energy, environment, and resource development. Based on current political dynamics, polls, and analyses, I'll outline whether this could benefit the Liberal Party of Canada in a non-partisan way, focusing on electoral, economic, policy, and national unity implications. Note that separation remains unlikely, as recent polls (e.g., from Angus Reid in late 2025 and early 2026) show that around 65% of Albertans would vote to stay in Canada or lean that way, with only 25-30% supporting independence.Electoral ImpactAlberta's separation could provide a short-term electoral boost to the Liberals by removing a major Conservative stronghold from the federal map.

• Seat distribution: Alberta currently holds 34 seats in the House of Commons (out of 338 total). In the 2025 federal election, these went overwhelmingly to the Conservatives, with the Liberals winning zero or very few (similar to patterns in 2019 and 2021 where Conservatives swept nearly all Alberta ridings). Removing these seats would reduce the total to about 304, disproportionately hurting the Conservatives and making it easier for the Liberals to secure majorities or minorities in future elections, as their voter base is stronger in Ontario, Quebec, and Atlantic Canada.
• Voter dynamics: Alberta's electorate is heavily skewed toward the Conservatives (e.g., 64-70% in recent federal votes), and separatist sentiment is highest among United Conservative Party (UCP) supporters—up to 65% of whom might back independence. This could solidify Liberal dominance federally, as the remaining Canada would have fewer right-leaning voices in Parliament.

However, this "benefit" could backfire if it alienates moderate voters elsewhere or triggers backlash, such as increased support for Conservative or populist parties in other provinces like Saskatchewan or Manitoba.Policy and Governance BenefitsThe Liberals might face less resistance to key agendas without Alberta's influence.

• Environmental and energy policies: Alberta's oil sands and resource sector have been at odds with Liberal initiatives like the carbon tax, pipeline restrictions, and emissions caps. Separation would remove a vocal opponent, allowing smoother implementation of climate goals without provincial court challenges or political gridlock. Premier Danielle Smith's criticisms of "anti-energy" federal policies highlight this friction.
• Fiscal policy: As a net contributor to federal equalization payments (Alberta pays in more than it receives), its exit could free up resources for Liberal priorities in other regions, though this is debated.

On the flip side, losing Alberta could complicate national policy-making, as the province drives significant economic activity and innovation in energy transition.Economic DrawbacksAny electoral or policy gains would likely be outweighed by economic costs, harming the Liberals' reputation for competent governance.

• GDP and trade loss: Alberta accounts for about 15-20% of Canada's GDP, primarily from oil and gas. Separation would create a landlocked independent nation, disrupting supply chains, pipelines (e.g., to British Columbia ports), and federal revenues. The rest of Canada could face higher energy prices, reduced investment, and a potential recession—issues that would be blamed on the governing Liberals.
• Fiscal transfers: While Alberta complains about "unfair" contributions, its departure would strain federal budgets, potentially leading to tax hikes or cuts to programs that Liberals champion, like social services or infrastructure.

Aspect	Potential Benefit to Liberals	Potential Drawback to Liberals
Economy	Reduced pressure from oil lobby; possible reallocation of funds.	Loss of major revenue source; economic instability could hurt re-election chances.
Policy	Easier passage of progressive laws (e.g., climate action).	Complicated negotiations over assets, borders, and trade; policy vacuum in energy sector.
Unity	End to Alberta-specific grievances.	Risk of domino effect (e.g., Quebec resurgence); damage to national identity.

National Unity and Long-Term RisksSeparation would almost certainly damage Canada as a whole, undermining the Liberals' legacy.

• Chain reaction: It could embolden separatists in Quebec, where the Parti Québécois is gaining traction and promising a sovereignty referendum if they win the provincial election. Polls show Quebec's independence risk is higher than in decades, and a Liberal government might be seen as provoking disunity.
• Public perception: The Liberals, under leaders like Justin Trudeau and now Mark Carney, have positioned themselves as champions of national unity. Allowing or failing to prevent separation could portray them as weak or divisive, especially amid external pressures like U.S. President Trump's annexation jokes.
• Historical context: Separatism in Alberta spikes under Liberal governments (e.g., after 2015, 2019, and 2025 wins), but it's often more about leverage than genuine intent. A actual split would be unprecedented and chaotic, involving constitutional amendments, debt division, and Indigenous land claims—challenges that could define and derail a Liberal administration.

In summary, while there might be narrow partisan advantages (like electoral math), the overall impact would likely be negative for the Liberal Party. It could lead to economic turmoil, fractured unity, and political instability that erodes public trust. Experts and polls suggest the movement is more a protest against federal policies than a viable path forward, and accommodation (e.g., policy tweaks on energy) might be a better strategy for all parties.

Summaries from the three:

• Perplexity: "On paper, taking Alberta’s mostly Conservative seats off the board would make it easier for the Liberals to win and hold federal power in the remaining Canada. In practice, any real move toward Alberta separation would undermine the Liberals’ claim to be a national governing party and would create economic, constitutional, and unity crises that are profoundly against their broader interests and values."
• Chat GPT: "Even if Alberta separation might slightly simplify short-term parliamentary math, it would be: A legitimacy nightmare; An economic hit; A unity crisis multiplier; A long-term electoral and strategic loss. The Liberal Party gains far more from keeping Alberta inside Canada—even if it votes against them—than from losing it."
• Grok: "In summary, while there might be narrow partisan advantages (like electoral math), the overall impact would likely be negative for the Liberal Party. It could lead to economic turmoil, fractured unity, and political instability that erodes public trust. Experts and polls suggest the movement is more a protest against federal policies than a viable path forward, and accommodation (e.g., policy tweaks on energy) might be a better strategy for all parties."

Caveat questioner ....

 

[IKnowNothing]

You could test the theory in AI. Electoral results in Canada if Quebec separated vs Alberta. If Quebec left, Cons would dominate politics, if Alberta left LPC would dominate.

Except for such a surface level rearward analysis would completely fail to account for how the political landscape and relative positions of the parties would shift.

 

[QV]

Except for such a surface level rearward analysis would completely fail to account for how the political landscape and relative positions of the parties would shift.

Sure.

Care to speculate what shifts?

Without doubt there would be change to the electoral landscape.

 

[Halifax Tar]

Chatgpt cant replace critical thinking. An iota of that would tell you Alberta separating would be a disaster for the LPC as it would be a disaster for Canada writ-large. Are some of you truly so partisan you think the feds would welcome separatism to "own the cons"? Are we really debasing ourselves to the level of conspiracy thinking and tribalism that has destroyed the American political system?

No idea. I just ran some questions at AI to see what it would say.

I will say the LPC is not beyond making others out of Canadians for their own ambitions and goals.

 

[IKnowNothing]

Sure.

Care to speculate what shifts?

Without doubt there would be change to the electoral landscape.

Top of mind-

• without Alberta the CPC loses a lot of the Reform base and influence- shifts towards the centre -> potential loss of LPC votes
• Centre shift CPC no longer represents the same "threat" to Bloc and NDP voters, ABC vote weakens - > potential loss of LPC votes

 

[Brad Sallows]

Sure.

Care to speculate what shifts?

Without doubt there would be change to the electoral landscape.

There are too many moving parts. QC tends to drag federal politics left, not right. The BQ would no longer suck up a share of parliament. The NDP, which doesn't often do well in QC, should hold a slightly larger fraction of seats in a smaller parliament, and it also drags politics left. Without QC the LPC could afford to campaign more rightward to compete with the CPC but would still be between NDP and CPC.

 

[ArmyRick]

For people relying on AI calculations, caution. Google AI got 1RCHA and 1RCR mixed up on me one time, it also told me on another Google AI brief that the Canadian Airborne Regiment was stood in 2006 at Petawawa as part of CANSOFCOM. See where I am going with this?

For separation of various provinces and most likely outcomes, I think you can use AI to assist, but you will need more in depth analysis. Enter political academics and long time political pundits (The Kinsella and Lilley types, who openly have biases but can shelve them to give a good solid view on things).

For any province separating, it creates a cascading series of new events
-Human emotional reaction
-Economic reactions
-Security reactions
-International relationships (based on trade, economy, resources and defence to name but a few)
-What other nations would seek to exploit the events (Does the USA or China rush in to make sweetheart deals with the newly independent states?)
-Does war break out (Yup, I said it. A civil war can happen here, thats brutal reality)

So, if Alberta or Alberta-Saskatchewan or Quebec separate or all three, I wouldn't be so quick to cough a knee jerk answer, or overly rely on AI. (Use AI to collect and evaluate data points and then draw your own conclusions is my recommendation)