All Things AB Separatism (split fm Liberal Minority Government 2025 - ???)

[QV]

The LPC knows if Quebec left they the LPC would likely never be the natural governing party again and lose way more than they win. Likewise they know if Alberta left, that would solidify their hold on power in the rest of Canada and they would probably never lose again. This can explain why one province is courted and the other pushed.

 

[Infanteer]

The LPC knows if Quebec left they the LPC would likely never be the natural governing party again and lose way more than they win. Likewise they know if Alberta left, that would solidify their hold on power in the rest of Canada and they would probably never lose again. This can explain why one province is courted and the other pushed.

I just ran the numbers for 2026. With Quebec, the Liberals won 49% of the total seats available. Without Quebec, they would have won 47% of the total seats available.

To double check, I ran Justin Trudeau's 2015 majority win through the same test. With Quebec, the Liberals won 54% of the seats available. Without Quebec, they would have won 55% of the seats available.

Not sure your hypothesis tracks.

 

[QV]

You could test the theory in AI. Electoral results in Canada if Quebec separated vs Alberta. If Quebec left, Cons would dominate politics, if Alberta left LPC would dominate.