Liberal (Minority/Majority) Government 2025 - ???

[The Bread Guy]

For the tea leaf readers out there, a quick hit with the latest as of today.

The Writ's Canadian Vote and Seat Projections

What would be the result of a Canadian federal election if it were held today?

www.thewrit.ca

Just one data point - take that as you will.

 

[Jarnhamar]

No. Canada signed a framework, but didn't make orders. Canada is buying the F35 in batches, and if Canada decided tomorrow to buy no more there would be no cancelation penalties.

I'm reading Canada did sign a $19 billion contract with Lockheed Martin for 88 F-35s in January 2023, with deliveries across four tranches through 2032. That said, Ottawa appears legally committed only to the first 16 jets. The remaining 72 aren't covered by a signed production contract, so they're still open to cancellation, reduction, or substitution.

I'd say the practical point stands. It wasn't merely a framework, a real contract exists, it's the production commitment beyond 16 jets that's not locked in.

On no cancellation penalties that's true contractually, but we already sunk costs into infrastructure and training tied to the program, so it's not entirely cost free either.

How this relates to the bridge, we have a framework, in principle. We haven't ordered anything. There are still negotiations to be had about how to manage any revenue sharing, but until that happens, the original deal is how the bridge is being operated.

I don't see that comparison holding up well. It seems like this is actually the reverse situation. The text of the bridge deal shows Canada agreed to send the US half of net revenues and granted Washington veto power over toll rate changes (from The Globe and Mail). That's a signed, released agreement. I don't see how that's a vague framework in principle with nothing ordered yet.

It's also worth noting Trump has said the origional bridge deal no longer stands, that's directly contradicting the original deal is how it's being operated claim. Trump forced a new revenue sharing arrangement on top of the 2012 deal, and it's since become a point of public contention over what Carney disclosed versus what the actual text says.
So unlike the F-35 (where the bulk of the order really is uncommitted), the bridge deal is a specific, published agreement already in effect (not an open framework still being negotiated).

 

[Altair]

I'm reading Canada did sign a $19 billion contract with Lockheed Martin for 88 F-35s in January 2023, with deliveries across four tranches through 2032. That said, Ottawa appears legally committed only to the first 16 jets. The remaining 72 aren't covered by a signed production contract, so they're still open to cancellation, reduction, or substitution.

I'd say the practical point stands. It wasn't merely a framework, a real contract exists, it's the production commitment beyond 16 jets that's not locked in.

On no cancellation penalties that's true contractually, but we already sunk costs into infrastructure and training tied to the program, so it's not entirely cost free either.

It's a distinction without a difference.

Canada could decide not to buy another F35 tomorrow penalty free and it would be as if the deal for 88 never existed.

I don't see that comparison holding up well. It seems like this is actually the reverse situation. The text of the bridge deal shows Canada agreed to send the US half of net revenues and granted Washington veto power over toll rate changes (from The Globe and Mail). That's a signed, released agreement. I don't see how that's a vague framework in principle with nothing ordered yet.

It's also worth noting Trump has said the origional bridge deal no longer stands, that's directly contradicting the original deal is how it's being operated claim. Trump forced a new revenue sharing arrangement on top of the 2012 deal, and it's since become a point of public contention over what Carney disclosed versus what the actual text says.
So unlike the F-35 (where the bulk of the order really is uncommitted), the bridge deal is a specific, published agreement already in effect (not an open framework still being negotiated).

Except its not in effect. And Trump, again, is celebrating at the 10 yard line. The agreement in principle has no mechanism to do what the deal in principle says. And the only way to get a mechanism is to negotiate between the two countries on how any mechanism will work. So one can say its in effect but it cannot be in effect without a mechanism to manage what the deal says.

 

[YZT580]

Didn't Canada actually sign a full binding $19B contract for all 88 F-35s back in January 2023?

With Carney ordering a review of that signed deal in 2025, and the government hasn't confirmed whether the remaining 72 jets (beyond the first 16, which are locked in and already being paid for) will actually go through.

So basically there IS still room to walk away from part of it, not because nothing was signed, but because a signed deal is under active review.

why are you concerned about a signed deal? Chretien wasn't and Trump certainly isn't

 

[Jarnhamar]

Except its not in effect. And Trump, again, is celebrating at the 10 yard line. The agreement in principle has no mechanism to do what the deal in principle says. And the only way to get a mechanism is to negotiate between the two countries on how any mechanism will work. So one can say its in effect but it cannot be in effect without a mechanism to manage what the deal says

Your math seems to math, for now.

why are you concerned about a signed deal? Chretien wasn't and Trump certainly isn't

I've spent 3 decades signing stuff put infront of me without reading it. Signing stuff is obviously important

 

[mariomike]

I've spent 3 decades signing stuff put infront of me without reading it. Signing stuff is obviously important

At the hospital,

Liability waiver?"
'Don't read it. Just sign it.'
"Yeah, but all these skulls and crossbones on here. I don't usually sign stuff like that.."
'It simply says you won't hold us responsible if you die as a result of gross negligence. It's a standard form.'

 

[Eaglelord17]

Does it though??

How hard is it to say no phones in class? Or go back to teaching the basics?


If students are going to use AI for assignments, we should try to find a way to make them use it the same way as Google - as a research tool, not a 'do everything tool'

How do we do that?? No idea. (I haven't really jumped onto this AI bandwagon yet)

...

AI is still in it's infancy (which is scary)

I'm sure there are people working on this problem already. Society will adapt, just as it did with the introduction of search engines.

My solution would be to go back to black boards and paper books, assignments, tests, and teaching. We aren’t doing that even though there is a ton of data showing it is the solution.

This is why I say no one wants to fight that fight, as we currently aren’t. Instead we are sticking our heads in the sand and pretending this serious issue doesn’t exist. The kids haven’t been alright since covid.

Institutionalized me says I'll do anything to support my team and improve my workplace with no expectations of compensation.

Selfish me says why should I, a top performer, sacrifice time and energy to support and train weaker members who get paid the same as me? Espeically if my managers who get paid more than me are the kind to dump their work on me.

See this is where management is supposed to step in. If you fail to do your job (i.e. teach effectively) your supposed to be terminated. Your laziest employee shall only perform as much as they have to, so if you set the bar at doing your job then thats what they shall meet to avoid being fired.

I get why teachers have mostly given up. The higher ups aren’t on their side if they try and follow the rules/hold people accountable. The parents aren’t on their side, they actively fight the idea their child could be doing wrong. And the students aren’t on their side, like most of us they shall try to get away with the maximum they can and play the system. Due to the above two points they can easily play it and thanks to the internet they can watch how others play it.

There is a reckoning coming if we don’t start to work on these problems. At this point much of the schools aren’t teaching the students, so that just makes them glorified daycare. If all teachers are doing is daycare work why even employ them?

 

[Altair]

Your math seems to math, for now.

This is the most important part.

We don't know how this will work. Here are the possibilities I see.

A) Same deal as the AIP-Winner, America

B)Carney drags this out beyond the midterms, signs a deal that is better or more evenly balanced-Winner, tie.

C)No deal is ever agreed to, bridge remains open under the 2012 agreement due to it causing too much economic disruption to close-Winner, Canada

D) No deal is ever agreed to, bridge is closed by the Americans. -Losers, both, but more so Canada.

 

[PPCLI Guy]

Nah.

Why use humans at all?

We have LLM making speeches by proxy in legislatures, lets just elect them directly.

Vote between open AI, Gemini and Grok

Claude or death!

 

[Altair]

Claude or death!

I want to see what their policy is on murdering humans first.

 

[Jarnhamar]

Claude or death!

Do you use the free version or paid for the upgrade?

 

[Halifax Tar]

A fictional PM that doesn't exist.

So what are you rambling about ?

 

[PPCLI Guy]

Do you use the free version or paid for the upgrade?

Upgrade to $30 per month. I also have access to Claude Pro in one of the businesses I am a partner in

 

[Halifax Tar]

Upgrade to $30 per month. I also have access to Claude Pro in one of the businesses I am a partner in

I've used copilot that comes with MS Teams and Meta AI.

Neither of them have a I paid for but they've been fine.

I think I'm gonna buy some Metal Glasses... Friend has a pair, neat.

 

[Altair]

I make it a habit to not post federal polls since we have a majority government now, but this is noteworthy.

Liberals maintain lead amid evolving concerns.

Latest Nanos weekly federal political tracking

niknanos.substack.com

Federal politics remains relatively stable heading into the latter part of July. National ballot tracking places the Liberals at 44.7%, the Conservatives at 29.5%, and the NDP at 12.7%, with smaller shares for the Bloc Québécois (7.3%), Green Party (4.5%), and People’s Party (1.1%).

The CPC below 30 percent is wild. I always figured the basement for the CPC was in the mid 30s. But appearantly they can continue to fall further.

And maybe not a surprise, it comes amidst another round of Trump unfairly targetting Canada. Seems the CPC is still vulnerable to this effect.

 

[brihard]

Upgrade to $30 per month. I also have access to Claude Pro in one of the businesses I am a partner in

How do you find it? I’m doing a course on AI and Geopolitics right now, and for the semester’s assignments I have to do two very open form assignments where we’re encouraged to use AI but have to show our work for how we got there. I was thinking of signing up for a month’s worth of paid LLM, just not sure which one.

 

[Jarnhamar]

Upgrade to $30 per month. I also have access to Claude Pro in one of the businesses I am a partner in

I might try a few months of the paid version. Chatgpt is brutal, tried using it for some work stuff and it feels like I spend half the time correcting it and arguing with it. The other day it was convinced Mark Carney is not the prime Minister of Canada.

I think I'm gonna buy some Metal Glasses... Friend has a pair, neat.

Sounds uncomfortable.

 

[Jarnhamar]

Win for Canadian media

Ottawa to scrap all contribution requirements for U.S. streamers​

BREAKING: Ottawa to scrap all contribution requirements for U.S. streamers - The Wire Report

In a recent letter to the Federal Court of Appeal, the government outlined its intention to “eliminate the base contribution requirement on streaming services and to provide government funding to replace those contributions.”

www.thewirereport.ca

 

[brihard]

Win for Canadian media

Ottawa to scrap all contribution requirements for U.S. streamers​

BREAKING: Ottawa to scrap all contribution requirements for U.S. streamers - The Wire Report

In a recent letter to the Federal Court of Appeal, the government outlined its intention to “eliminate the base contribution requirement on streaming services and to provide government funding to replace those contributions.”

www.thewirereport.ca

Good. That was an unnecessary trade irritant, is not objectively defensible, and takes some wind out of the U.S.’ sails. It was bad policy.

 

[YZT580]

Good. That was an unnecessary trade irritant, is not objectively defensible, and takes some wind out of the U.S.’ sails. It was bad policy.

except it is too little too late. Trump's attention span is shorter than a midge's antlers. He won't remember and no one in his office is going to remind him. That is done he will now focus on something else.