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Election 2015

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E.R. Campbell said:
      Wendy Yuan told a large crowd of supporters gathered at the Sheraton Vancouver Airport in Richmond that she was shocked on learning last Friday that the party would not be green-lighting her nomination for Steveston-Richmond East.

      Yuan — who has twice been green-lit by the party for election runs that ultimately proved unsuccessful...

So a two-time loser was shocked that perhaps party brass figured she might turn out to be a three-time loser and decided to back another, potentially more successful horse?  She should give her head a shake.

Not denying her hard work signing up new members.  But the LPC needs that kind of staff effort right now, so it would make sense to capitalize on her ability to do that.  A kick in the pants to then be cut at the last minute, if that was the plan all along, but to be honest, if I were the party brass, that would be one of my COAs for sure.  Maybe even COA #1 and no, I would't tell her either.  Would she really have worked that hard if she knew she was;t going to get the nomination?  This is an election campaign and the 'natural governing party' finds themselves losing it.  I don't understand why anyone - party members, the general voting public...anyone...thinks that 'fair play' is going to win the day.  Or that it even has a place in an election campaign.  That is so Pollyanna it makes me gag.
 
The Wendy Yuan kerfuffle is just the sort of thing that plays straight into the "not ready" meme the CPC has deployed. The Young Dauphin publicly stated that nominations would be open and democratic, but on multiple occasions has ham handedly intervened in nomination battles to parachute "star" candidates into ridings.

While this is every party leader's right, and done well can even make the party stronger in the campaign, the Young Dauphin has shown very little subtlety or finesse in his dealings with the riding associations, and of course the last thing you need in an election is pissed off volunteers and party workers who form the ground troops of your campaign. If they have little or no motivation to come out and help "your" candidate, then even a candidate with lots of star appeal might discover they don't have armies of volunteers knocking on doors, calling phone in shows, tweeting etc. to support them (and of course, what happens if they stay home on election day itself..?).

If the Young Dauphin isn't able to deal with his own party's riding associations, what happens when the challenge is raised to the level of a Provincial Premier, much less foreign heads of state like Vladimir Putin (or worse yet a Sun Media reporter!)?
 
MARS said:
So a two-time loser was shocked that perhaps party brass figured she might turn out to be a three-time loser and decided to back another, potentially more successful horse?  She should give her head a shake.

Agreed.  The problem is not with the boot. What will cost the LPC is the boss's stupid statement that all nominations would be open and without interference.  He has intervened on a number of occasions now and is rapidly losing credibility amongst the grunts in the party who actually do the work.
 
Thucydides said:
...of course, what happens if they stay home on election day itself..?).

There's also the option that they go over to the "enemy".
 
YZT580 said:
What will cost the LPC is the boss's stupid statement that all nominations would be open and without interference.  He has intervened on a number of occasions now and is rapidly losing credibility amongst the grunts in the party who actually do the work.

Agreed.  I guess he should have given his head a shake before saying that.  Also Pollyanna in my opinion. 

I guess I am not inherintly against intervention from the top, providing you don't try to snow your subordinates that the system is open.  Maybe if he had never said that, he might not be having issues on the scale he is.  I dunno.
 
Here is an idea that I would like to see all the parties buy into.

Kill the tax credit, reduce taxes
Tom Kott, National Post
13 August 2015

In 2009, Prime Minister Stephen Harper took some heat for telling the Globe and Mail, “I don’t believe that any taxes are good taxes.” Judging by his time in office, he was grossly exaggerating.

Since the Conservatives first won a minority government in 2006, the length of the Canadian Income Tax Act has expanded by nearly a quarter. This country’s tax laws now tower above Canadians at a whopping 3,134 pages. According to the Canadian Taxpayers Federation, it has grown by 3.4 per cent over the last year alone.

Now, the Conservatives have not increased taxes per se, some have been eliminated and decreased. But their preferred method of tax relief comes from tax expenditures like tax credits, which unlike actual cuts, have the adverse effect of piling on new clauses and conditions to an already confusing system. You still initially owe the same amount, but checking off more boxes on your growing tax form entitles you to get bigger reimbursements.

This is nothing new. Governments have used tax expenditures as a vehicle for social policy since the post-war period. Some have been justified, and many were used as temporary measures to fix one problem or another. During the last recession, the Conservative government introduced new tax credits as part of its stimulus program, but many of those stayed permanent. There’s the Family Caregiver Tax Credit, the First-Time Home Buyers’ Tax Credit, the Children’s Fitness Tax Credit, the Children’s Arts Tax Credit, the Textbook Tax Credit, the Tuition Tax Credit and the Tradesperson’s Tools Deduction. Forget all the incentives that were already there from previous governments and before the recession, like the Public Transit Tax Credit.

This complicated system means more headaches for Canadians families come April, more money lost to accountants and a ballooning government bureaucracy to manage the red tape.

Some may think that this is a lot about nothing – tax credits and tax cuts, tomayto tomahto. People still get their money back.

And yet tax credits essentially amount to a redistribution of wealth without making anything more equal.

Take the recently dispensed Universal Child Care Benefit, for example. This tax benefit redistributed $3 billion of public funds towards child-rearing couples, at the expense of childless adults.

On day two of his bid for reelection, Conservative Leader Stephen Harper promised to reinstate the home renovation tax credit, but as a permanent measure. While those who rent their homes and still pay a hefty amount into the system won’t see a dime, Joe down the street will be able to save 15 per cent off his new porch, courtesy of his neighbours.

Electorally, tax credits make sense. Parties can propose these benefits and dangle them in front of voters like candy. General tax cuts would mean everyone can keep their own money, but it lacks the visual appeal of a cheque in the mail in the middle of July, or brand-new heated floors to wake up to.

Were a party looking to ignore all populist instincts and seek a solution to our bloating tax code, the answer is obvious: remove tax credits — whether for corporations or citizens — and cut actual tax rates. More Canadians will be able to keep the fruit of their labour, without the subjective decision of governments to decide what worthy causes Canadians should be reimbursed for. At the same time, the Tax Act would shrink, decreasing the size of the bureaucracy at the Canadian Revenue Agency.

No doubt, this plea will fall on deaf ears — bribing the electorate with its own money is much more beneficial for parties than proposing actual, substantial change.
http://news.nationalpost.com/full-comment/tom-kott-kill-the-tax-credit-reduce-taxes
 
Here, reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions of the Copyright Act from the Ottawa Citizen, is a rather lengthy but informative look at Stephen Harper ... the man and his rise to power:

http://www.ottawacitizen.com/life/nerd+came+from+nowhere+Stephen+Harper+knows+need+like+politician+elect/11287551/story.html
crop_20562474919.jpg

The nerd who came from nowhere: Stephen Harper knows you don’t need to like a politician to elect him

TRISTIN HOPPER  08.12.2015

Just before Christmas 2013, a motorcade of three black cars stopped in front of a nondescript ranch house in the Varsity Village neighbourhood of Calgary. Plain-clothes RCMP stood guard as a figure emerged from one of the vehicles and knocked on the front door.

“There was enough warning to get coffee ready,” says Jim Hawkes.

Nobody would have faulted him for hating the tall, blue-eyed man standing on his front step.

As a Progressive Conservative MP for Calgary West, Hawkes had given him his first political job as a chief aide in Ottawa. But the young man soon defected to the upstart Reform Party and mounted a challenge to his old boss’s seat. On election day in 1993, a 34-year-old “Steve” sent his mentor to a humiliating third place.

That man, of course, was Stephen Harper. And those around Hawkes — including Harper’s then-girlfriend — balked at the apparent betrayal. But 22 years later, there’s not a hint of bitterness in the older politician’s voice.

“He was better than anybody I’ve ever employed,” says Hawkes in a phone interview from the retirement home in Calgary where he now lives. “I’m proud of him.”

Hawkes’s wife Joanne had died only a few months before that visit. Harper came in, handed his former mentor a copy of his new book, A Great Game, and for an hour they chatted, one on one.

“A good part of it was talking about life,” says Hawkes, “not political things – family things.”

This image — the prime minister relaxing with a cup of coffee and talking marriage and parenting with an old man — would be hard for most Canadians to picture. Rarely has a figure as guarded as Stephen Harper ascended to the highest political office of a Group of Seven nation.

Behind closed doors, Canada’s 22nd prime minister can swear like a “longshoreman,” is known to greet unwelcome news with “volcanic” outbursts of fury and has an uncanny talent for pitch-perfect impersonations. But to most Canadians he is a poker-faced cipher: never angry, rarely laughing, awkward in social settings and most comfortable when talking fiscal policy.

Stephen Harper is a nerd who came from nowhere, corralled an estranged coalition of Canadian conservatives and smashed his way into nearly a decade of power. And he did it without being cuddly, charismatic or particularly quotable.

Nine years in, that’s probably just the way he wants it.

* * *

“He’d ditch all the public obligations that come with the job tomorrow, if he could,” says Jim Armour, a former director of communications for the Conservative leader.

Other prime ministers have thrived on galas and state dinners. But aside from the occasional chance to meet hockey greats, Harper would pass up ribbon-cuttings for strategy sessions.

He lives in a hard-drinking town, but never imbibes outside the occasional photo op. After the Parliament shootings last October, as shocked colleagues thirsted for a stiff drink, Harper called for a tall glass of Diet Coke.

He’s ruthless at destroying opponents, but — strangely for a career politician — takes no joy in it. In 2011, as Conservatives across Canada bubbled with schadenfreude at witnessing the political ruin of the Liberals’ Michael Ignatieff, it is unlikely their leader felt even a twang of guilty pleasure.

“He’s like a predator; there’s no emotion to it,” says Gerry Nicholls, who worked with Harper at the National Citizens’ Coalition, a conservative think tank. “When a wolf goes after a rabbit, it’s not because it hates rabbits.”

He “reads everything,” becoming the bane of a privy council that had grown accustomed to prime ministers skimming their reports. He is known to catch the tiniest of spelling errors — and respond with swift reprimands scribbled in the margins. Friends call this “meticulous,” enemies call it “micromanaging.”

He gets angry. But it’s not the out-of-control BlackBerry-throwing tantrum so common to Ottawa, it’s a measured expulsion of rage designed chillingly to drive a point home. One staffer has described it as a “spectacular thing.”

He comes from a Presbyterian background and has occasionally been spotted at an Ottawa evangelical church, but staffers haven’t heard him say a single religious thing— nor have they found him unwilling to work on a Sunday. Indeed, Harper chose to announce the current election on the Sabbath.

Perhaps most surprisingly, Canada’s socks-with-sandals prime minister harbours an uncanny talent for comic delivery.

Cynthia Williams, who dated Harper in university, says in private situations he has a dry wit akin to the TV character, Frasier Crane. “He was always making me laugh,” she says.

In policy meetings and hotel rooms, Conservative staffers have got used to his penchant for launching into impromptu impressions.

“I used to prep him for question period, and he would answer as Jean Chrétien or Brian Mulroney or John Diefenbaker,” says Keith Beardsley, a former senior adviser to Harper.

In speeches, he’s been known to mix partisan jabs with self-deprecating riffs.

“(My father) is an accountant, as are both my brothers. I decided to become an economist because I didn’t have the personality to be an accountant,” Harper told the 2002 Ottawa Press gallery dinner when he was opposition leader.

It’s a public side to Harper that has dissolved almost completely since he became prime minister. Since then he has stopped showing up at press gallery dinners and dispensed with anything in question period that wasn’t a staid statement of facts.

It was at the funeral last year of former finance minister Jim Flaherty — who had fallen out with the prime minister before his sudden death — that attendees saw a brief glimpse of the old Harper.

“Jim, as fiercely partisan as he was, was also genuinely liked and respected by his opponents, liked by his enemies,” said Harper in his remarks, which carried a tinge of remorse.

“That … something I envy; I can’t even get my friends to like me.”

* * *

It was only 13 years ago Harper arose out of relative obscurity to head the Canadian Alliance and begin wielding his near-mystical powers to unite the “warring tribes” of Canadian conservatism.

He was a high school valedictorian who had sailed through university with honours, an obsessive strategist whose only hobby was politics. The only problem was, he didn’t have a hint of personal charisma or warmth.

A “behind the scenes” guy Preston Manning had snapped out of graduate school to form the brain of his fledgling Reform Party, the young economist was a walking strategy computer – but he recoiled at the glad-handing and baby-kissing required of a politician.

He detested small talk. He thrived in political debates at university, but vanished when his opponents tried to take him for beer afterward. Williams was the one “dragging” him to social functions. Later, it would be Laureen Teskey doing the dragging, with Harper riding on the back of her motorcycle.

“He’s not really comfortable in big crowds, never has been, probably never will be,” says Robert Mansell, the University of Calgary professor who first connected Harper with the fledgling Reform Party.

With Reform drafting its staffers as candidates, Harper had, in fact, chosen the one riding he figured he was guaranteed to lose: Calgary West, where his former boss held more than 70 per cent of the votes.

“He phoned me up to ask if it would be OK because he didn’t want to interfere with our relationship,” says Hawkes.

The strategy worked for the 1988 election, which Hawkes won handily. But by 1993, the goods and services tax, Brian Mulroney, Kim Campbell and the Reform wave conspired to catapult the rookie Harper into the House of Commons.

Only four years later, it was image that would drive him away. Specifically, the attempt to spruce up the image of Preston Manning: laser eye surgery, vocal coaching to remove his prairie drawl and fresh suits of stylish clothes.

As Manning wrote in his memoir, aides had been able to convince him his unusual “personal appearance, bearing and idiosyncrasies” were a “distraction” from the Reform message.

But Harper balked at the makeover and was widely suspected of leaking details of the “wardrobe allowance” to the press.

Eventually, “Stephen quit over that,” says Goldy Hyder, a former Conservative strategist.

* * *

After Harper returned to politics and became leader of the Canadian Alliance, there were doubts a man so lacking in warmth would win over the wider public.

“I never thought Stephen Harper would be prime minister,” says Hyder. “The sense was ‘He’s a loner, he’s too serious, he’s too much of a wonk.’ ”

What’s more, Harper had zero interest in being loved. Hyder calls it a form of “authenticity,” “what you see is what you get.”

In the mid-2000s, for instance, Harper had an eye infection that prevented him from wearing contact lenses. As a result, he was forced to attend a public event in glasses.

“We had all sorts of comments flood into party headquarters about how good he looked and how he should do that more often,” says Beardsley.

“Somebody raised it, and he just laughed: the contacts were back in the next day.”

The prime minister wears glasses more often now, but those close to him strongly suspect it has more to do with advancing age than any attempt to look approachable.

“It’s a pretty safe bet that Stephen Harper didn’t enter politics for the love and adulation,” says Armour.

One of his few displays of personality, of course, is when he stages concerts for the party faithful. Even then, he only got behind the piano after intensive lobbying from staffers and his wife Laureen.

“I didn’t even know he played piano,” says Tom Flanagan, Harper’s 2004 campaign manager.

Aides are also quick to note Harper always loses the “beer poll,” the occasional EKOS survey in which Canadians are asked which political leader they would like to have over for a beer. In 2010, he lost to Jack Layton. Last year, he lost to both Thomas Mulcair and Justin Trudeau.

The Conservative leader’s political genius, say staffers, is he figured out Canadians don’t need to like a politician to choose him as their leader.

“Bland works. If Canadians want entertainment, they’ll turn on Netflix,” says Armour.

And in Harper, blandness goes deep. In the acknowledgements page to A Great Game, he describes himself as having been a “studious and rather unathletic boy.”

Both his accountant brothers — who bear an uncanny resemblance to their famous sibling — share his shyness and introversion. Throughout Harper’s entire political career, they have avoided the spotlight.

“We’re all very proud of him,” Robert Harper told Postmedia after his brother’s 2006 election victory. To date, it is the only public comment made by the family.

And just like a prime minister who relaxes by researching pre-First World War hockey, the Harper clan seem to share a love of historical minutiae.

Grant Harper is one of Canada’s leading collectors of political memorabilia. The family patriarch, Joseph, spent nights and weekends researching military insignia. His 1992 book, Old Colours Never Die, is a comprehensive catalogue of Canadian military flags, pennants and regimental colours.

Hawkes remembers when Joseph came to visit his son in Ottawa. For two straight weeks, the elder Harper spent the entire time in the legislative library, researching naval history.

“When it opened, he went in. At the end of the day, he came out,” says Hawkes, who remains impressed at the commitment. “It stuck in my mind that that’s how he took a holiday.”

* * *

Frank Atkins used to get mocked for being the prime minister’s thesis adviser.

Now at the Frontier Centre for Public Policy, Atkins is an associate of the “Calgary School,” the name given to an informal group of University of Calgary academics advocating small government, low taxes and balanced budgets.

But by 2010, his wunderkind student was suddenly running up the largest deficit in Canadian history.

Once, while the professor strode into a crowded room, a colleague shouted out derisively, “There’s Frank Atkins, the architect of the stimulus package!”

Harper’s 1991 master’s thesis, ironically, railed against the concept of using government stimulus packages to rescue an ailing economy.

The dense 162-page tome is officially titled “The Political Business Cycle and Fiscal Policy in Canada.” But according to Atkins, it could just as easily be called “Keynesian economics is really a stupid idea.”

Harper chose the topic himself, and where other economics students were notoriously flaky with their thesis obligations, he buckled down and completed it in a matter of months.

Atkins said it was common for conversations with masters’ students to stray into personal matters. But when Harper came to his office, the talk was all economics.

“Sometimes he’d scare me with those big steely blue eyes,” says Atkins, who remembers Harper would often fall silent and stare at him. “What I learned after a while is what he’s doing is he’s thinking.”

Like many young Albertans, Harper flirted openly with libertarianism in his university days. Naturally, this included a requisite phase of enchantment with the writings of Ayn Rand.

A fellow classmate recalls an undergraduate Harper showing up to on-campus architecture talks still energized by The Fountainhead, Rand’s novel about an individualistic architect hero.

Later, he said, the future prime minister would nurture dreams of going into city planning, then destroying it from the inside as a service to free enterprise.

A similar zeal drove Harper at the National Citizens Coalition.

“We believed in the ideal of maximum freedom and limited government, but not to the point of ‘Let’s privatize sidewalks,’ ” says Nicholls.

But one by one, the free market friends from Harper’s past have seen the prime minister adopt political positions that would have enraged him as a young man: corporate welfare, deficit spending and — the nightmare of anybody with an economics degree — supply management.

Atkins says he’s “come to grips” with the actions of his former student. He says Harper has needed to compromise to stay in power and keep a less economics-minded leader out of the Prime Minister’s Office, but he guesses there’s still a libertarian-minded man in the PMO.

“You’ll never know — because he’ll never tell you — but I suspect he still believes that, deep down inside,” he says.

* * *

As the Canadian Alliance merged with the Progressive Conservatives in 2004, Harper summoned Scott Brison to Stornoway for dinner.

The opposition leader did not chit-chat or “feign interest” in Brison’s life. As the MP remembers it, it was all business. The openly gay Nova Scotia politician opposed the Conservatives’ policy on same-sex marriage and Harper was trying to keep him in the party fold.

“He explained to me that while I would be not limited as part of his government, social conservatism was essential as part of any winning conservative movement in Canada,” says Brison.

Harper spoke at an anti-gay marriage rally as opposition leader in 2005, but his personal history suggests he never cared too much about stopping gays from marrying.

At a 1993 debate in Calgary, Harper argued sexual orientation wasn’t anybody’s business. “I’ve been on my own for a long time and I have never been asked about my sexual orientation,” he said.

And ever since their days in opposition, the Conservatives’ Parliament Hill offices have employed gays and lesbians.

Still, in his meeting with Brison, the Conservative leader gave no indication as to what he personally felt about the issue. Nor was there anything in his body language that would have provided any hint.

“It’s hard to get a bead on him. There’s not a natural, evident humanity about him,” says Brison, who defected to the Liberal Party soon afterward.

On rare occasions, Harper has been candid about what he really thinks. In a 2011 interview with Peter Mansbridge, he said he “personally thinks there are times where capital punishment is appropriate.”

But he also noted “I don’t see the country wanting to do that” and vowed not to touch the issue as prime minister.

Even so, this brief moment of honesty was swiftly punished with a backlash of headlines, opposition outrage and condemnations from the head of Amnesty International.

It might be why — even to close aides — Harper never betrays certain private views. Armour was at his side for years, yet says he has virtually no idea what the private man might think of his public self.

“If you ask me his views on gay rights or marijuana, quite frankly I don’t know, which is perhaps the secret of his success,” he says. “His personal views rarely get in the way of politics.”

The tactic works, but while few speak of a “hidden agenda” anymore, there are few who know just what Harper’s agenda is.

Armour says the prime minister is an incrementalist. “He decided that the longer he was there, the more changes he could make,” he says.

Gerry Nicholls’ theory is more Shakespearean. He believes Harper is still working on his 1990s vow to smash the Liberal Party and inaugurate Canada as a two-party state shared between the Tories and the New Democrats.

“It’s about grinding the Liberal Party into little bits of red dust,” says Nicholls.

Others, like Brison, speak of a gradual plan to starve the machinery of government. Most, though, suspect Harper simply enjoys being in power.

“He doesn’t care about the adulation that comes with holding high public office,” says Flanagan.

“He thinks he knows what to do and wants to be able to do it.”

A generation before Harper, Tory MP Erik Nielsen held the title as Ottawa’s most zealous guardian of information. The brother of comic actor Leslie Nielsen, he was Brian Mulroney’s deputy prime minister, where he earned the name “Velcro Lips” for stonewalling the opposition and enthusiastically avoiding the press.

Following his retirement, though, Erik Nielsen went against character, penning one of the most revealing memoirs in Canadian political history. In the prologue to The House is Not a Home, he promises a “revealing and blunt account, whatever the pain it causes,” and proceeds to detail secret affairs, estranged children and the suspected suicide of his wife.

Harper has no dramatic skeletons in his closet and friends suspect they will see no such tell-all denouement either.

Post-politics, he will sit on corporate boards and likely take up a teaching position. But chances are also good he will go to the grave while keeping mum on what really motivated him during his meteoric time in power.

“The public image is not the private man, and unfortunately, the Canadian public will never get to see that side,” says Beardsley.

National Post


 
This from the Green machine:
Elizabeth May, Leader of the Green Party of Canada and MP (Saanich – Gulf Islands), today unveiled the Green Party’s plan to reverse damaging cuts to services and support for our veterans. She made the announcement in Nanaimo, and was joined by Afghanistan war veteran Capt. Trevor Greene and his family.

“Under Stephen Harper, our veterans have experienced a loss of respect and of needed services,” said Ms. May. “The use of lump sum payments have left disabled veterans without income security for their lifetimes.  The shuttering of Veterans Affairs offices has left veterans without needed services. We have sent our military into war zones without planning for the needed services for them and their families on their return.  The failure to respond adequately has led to tragic losses at home to suicide.” 

Working as a strong partner in what is projected to be a minority Parliament after the next election, the Green Party’s plan calls for reversing damaging changes brought in under the New Veteran’s Charter. The Green Party will increase funding to ensure any veteran with Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD) who wants a service dog will have access to one. Service dogs reduce PTSD in 82% of the cases, comparing favourably to pharmaceutical approaches. The Green Party commits to re-opening the Veterans Affairs offices ....
More in the attached backgrounder.
 
milnews.ca said:
This from the Green machine:More in the attached backgrounder.

That's rich.  Especially as she was howling at one time we were nothing but a bunch of Crusaders.  I believe she doesn't give a shit about us now or when we're veterans.
 
E.R. Campbell said:
Here, reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions of the Copyright Act from the Ottawa Citizen, is a rather lengthy but informative look at Stephen Harper ... the man and his rise to power:

http://www.ottawacitizen.com/life/nerd+came+from+nowhere+Stephen+Harper+knows+need+like+politician+elect/11287551/story.html

Excellent read and goes a long way to explain to me why I got the impressions I did of the man during the personal contacts I've had with him here and overseas.
 
E.R. Campbell said:
And here, reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions of the Copyright Act from the Globe and Mail is an analysis of the "looooooong campaign" that suggests that Prime Minister harper is looking at this 92015) election and a potential next election is he only gets a minority:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-debate/the-long-campaign-is-the-strategy/article25959325/


There is more on this in an Ottawa Citizen story about election war-chests which says that, "The Conservatives have, by far, the strongest fundraising machine of the four main national parties. The Conservative Party of Canada raised $7.4 million in the second quarter of 2015 alone, followed by the NDP with $4.5 million, the Liberals at about $4 million and the Green party at $760,475 ... In 2014, the Tories raised a total of $20.1 million, the Liberals collected $15.1 million, the NDP $9.5 million and Greens $3 million," and "Federal political parties running candidates in all 338 ridings will be able to spend a maximum of about $52 million, with a huge portion of that being reimbursed by taxpayers ... Elections Canada reimburses federal political parties up to 50 per cent of their paid campaign election expenses, while individual party candidates can be reimbursed up to 60 per cent of the election expense limits established for the riding."

Here is a listof individual candidate's spending limits by riding: from a low of under $40,000 in Nunavut to a high of almost $220,000 in Niagara Falls (quick scan, only, maybe I missed a higher or lower limit).


Clearly, the CPC is more ready and able, financially, to fight a long campaign, and still have cash in reserve, than are the Liberals and the NDP.
 
I have repeatedly said that winning government is a very long, very steep uphill climb for Justin Trudeau's Liberals, but in this article, which is reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions of the Copyright Act from the Globe and Mail, John Ibbitson makes the same case for Stephen Harper's Conservatives and he rests his case on real CPC fear of Thomas Mulcair and the NDP in Alberta:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/alberta/harpers-fight-for-alberta-betrays-a-worried-conservative-party/article25970726/
(My emphasis added.)
gam-masthead.png

Trip to Edmonton shows how worried Conservatives have become

JOHN IBBITSON
The Globe and Mail

Published Friday, Aug. 14, 2015

‘What’s the matter with Alberta?” frustrated Conservatives must be asking themselves.

Stephen Harper was in his home province this week, campaigning to hold seats that are under threat in Edmonton, while slagging Rachel Notley’s NDP government.

“We don’t know what surprises are in store,” in the autumn budget that the provincial government is working on, the Conservative Leader told supporters, “but we know the NDP has already started raising taxes, because raising taxes is in the DNA of the NDP.”

“We cannot afford to take this kind of NDP gamble with our entire country,” Mr. Harper maintained.

This is not strength. This is weakness.

Conservatives in Alberta are confused and dismayed. The collapse in the price of oil battering the Alberta economy is made worse by a dry summer that will likely reduce crop yields. There has been real damage to the standard of living of ordinary Albertans, who last May took out their frustrations on the provincial Conservatives by electing an NDP government.

Now, the federal NDP are hoping to make gains in Edmonton, and to defeat the Conservatives nationally.

“This would be an unprecedented paradigm shift,” observes Geoffrey Hale, a political scientist at the University of Lethbridge. Centre-left governments in both Edmonton and Ottawa would upend the political world view of the province’s Conservative base.

And so “to tell what Ralph Klein used to call ‘severely normal’ Albertans that the Prime Minister cares about them has become quite pressing,” Prof. Hale said in an interview, “and employing [Calgary Southeast Conservative candidate] Jason Kenney is no longer enough.” Hence the trip to Edmonton.

Of course, it’s only August, and in a campaign this long, party leaders have the luxury of travelling to parts of the country they might have skipped during a typical five-week sprint.

But the fact that Conservative strategists are worried about losing seats in Alberta reveals how high a hill Mr. Harper must climb to win a fourth mandate.

The Conservatives are trailing the NDP in British Columbia, according to all polls. They will also lose seats in Atlantic Canada and can expect few, if any, gains in Quebec.

Victory, then, rests at a minimum on holding the rural Ontario base, the swath of suburban seats around Toronto, and all or almost all the seats in Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba and the B.C. Interior.

But Alberta is changing, growing younger, accepting more migrants from other parts of Canada and other parts of the world.

There are progressive mayors in both Calgary and Edmonton, and a provincial NDP government.

Federally, the NDP is fighting hard in Edmonton and the Liberals have strong hopes in Calgary.

“It’s just a sense,” stresses Mel McMillan, economics professor emeritus at University of Alberta, “but I do get the sense that there is some potential for ‘we’re just going to kick the buggers out.’”

Because, under redistribution, Alberta gets six new seats (taking the count to 34), the Conservatives can afford to lose a few seats in Alberta and still prevail. Any further erosion, however, and they will probably lose the election.

The Conservative response is to rally its core supporters in Alberta by campaigning against the Notley government, just as Mr. Harper is hoping to hold on to his Ontario seats by campaigning against Liberal Premier Kathleen Wynne.

One problem, though, is what while the Liberal government in Ontario is increasingly unpopular, the Notley government is so new, and the polls so few, that it’s hard to get a sense of what voters in the province are thinking.

If things break at all in the Conservatives’ favour, Alberta will recede as a battleground and Mr. Harper will be able to focus on suburban Ontario and B.C.’s Lower Mainland, where this election will be decided.

But if you see much more of Stephen Harper in Edmonton, that will tell just how worried the Conservatives are. And if he starts campaigning in Calgary, well …
 
The changes in boundaries in Saskatchewan are also a concern for the Tories; traditionally, the federal ridings in Saskatchewan were hybrids, mixing urban and rural.  The new ridings are more clearly divided between urban and rural; urban voters tend to be more (small L) liberal, creating new challenges for the incumbents.
 
dapaterson said:
The changes in boundaries in Saskatchewan are also a concern for the Tories; traditionally, the federal ridings in Saskatchewan were hybrids, mixing urban and rural. The new ridings are more clearly divided between urban and rural; urban voters tend to be more (small L) liberal, creating new challenges for the incumbents.

This will eventually push Saskatchewan in a direction similar to what Manitoba has taken, It will be Regina and Saskatoon count, let the other folks take the hindmost. Just like the Manitoba model: Winnipeg is what matters, who cares about the rest of the province, including Brandon.
 
E.R. Campbell said:
Here, reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions of the Copyright Act from the Ottawa Citizen, is a rather lengthy but informative look at Stephen Harper ... the man and his rise to power:

http://www.ottawacitizen.com/life/nerd+came+from+nowhere+Stephen+Harper+knows+need+like+politician+elect/11287551/story.html


And, for those who found the National Post/Ottawa Citizen article a little fawning, here is another, less charitable view of Prime Minister Harper, this time reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions of the Copyright Act from the New York Times:

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/08/16/opinion/sunday/the-closing-of-the-canadian-mind.html?_r=0
tumblr_inline_n6b3ru1bU91qzor15.jpg

The Closing of the Canadian Mind

By STEPHEN MARCHE

AUG. 14, 2015

THE prime minister of Canada, Stephen Harper, has called an election for Oct. 19, but he doesn’t want anyone to talk about it.

He has chosen not to participate in the traditional series of debates on national television, confronting his opponents in quieter, less public venues, like the scholarly Munk Debates and CPAC, Canada’s equivalent of CSPAN. His own campaign events were subject to gag orders until a public outcry forced him to rescind the forced silence of his supporters.

Mr. Harper’s campaign for re-election has so far been utterly consistent with the personality trait that has defined his tenure as prime minister: his peculiar hatred for sharing information.

Americans have traditionally looked to Canada as a liberal haven, with gun control, universal health care and good public education.

But the nine and half years of Mr. Harper’s tenure have seen the slow-motion erosion of that reputation for open, responsible government. His stance has been a know-nothing conservatism, applied broadly and effectively. He has consistently limited the capacity of the public to understand what its government is doing, cloaking himself and his Conservative Party in an entitled secrecy, and the country in ignorance.

His relationship to the press is one of outright hostility. At his notoriously brief news conferences, his handlers vet every journalist, picking and choosing who can ask questions. In the usual give-and-take between press and politicians, the hurly-burly of any healthy democracy, he has simply removed the give.

Mr. Harper’s war against science has been even more damaging to the capacity of Canadians to know what their government is doing. The prime minister’s base of support is Alberta, a western province financially dependent on the oil industry, and he has been dedicated to protecting petrochemical companies from having their feelings hurt by any inconvenient research.

In 2012, he tried to defund government research centers in the High Arctic, and placed Canadian environmental scientists under gag orders. That year, National Research Council members were barred from discussing their work on snowfall with the media. Scientists for the governmental agency Environment Canada, under threat of losing their jobs, have been banned from discussing their research without political approval. Mentions of federal climate change research in the Canadian press have dropped 80 percent. The union that represents federal scientists and other professionals has, for the first time in its history, abandoned neutrality to campaign against Mr. Harper.

His active promotion of ignorance extends into the functions of government itself. Most shockingly, he ended the mandatory long-form census, a decision protested by nearly 500 organizations in Canada, including the Canadian Medical Association, the Canadian Chamber of Commerce and the Canadian Catholic Council of Bishops. In the age of information, he has stripped Canada of its capacity to gather information about itself. The Harper years have seen a subtle darkening of Canadian life.

The darkness has resulted, organically, in one of the most scandal-plagued administrations in Canadian history. Mr. Harper’s tenure coincided with the scandal of Rob Ford, the mayor of Toronto who admitted to smoking crack while in office and whose secret life came to light only when Gawker, an American website, broke the story. In a famous video at a Ford family barbecue, Mr. Harper praised the Fords as a “Conservative political dynasty.”

Mr. Harper’s appointments to the Senate — which in Canada is a mercifully impotent body employed strictly for political payoffs — have proved greedier than the norm. Mr. Harper’s chief of staff was forced out for paying off a senator who fudged his expenses. The Mounties have pressed criminal charges.

After the 2011 election, a Conservative staffer, Michael Sona, was convicted of using robocalls to send voters to the wrong polling places in Guelph, Ontario. In the words of the judge, he was guilty of “callous and blatant disregard for the right of people to vote.” In advance of this election, instead of such petty ploys, the Canadian Conservatives have passed the Fair Elections Act, a law with a classically Orwellian title, which not only needlessly tightens the requirements for voting but also has restricted the chief executive of Elections Canada from promoting the act of voting. Mr. Harper seems to think that his job is to prevent democracy.

But the worst of the Harper years is that all this secrecy and informational control have been at the service of no larger vision for the country. The policies that he has undertaken have been negligible — more irritating distractions than substantial changes. He is “tough on crime,” and so he has built more prisons at great expense at the exact moment when even American conservatives have realized that over-incarceration causes more problems than it solves. Then there is a new law that allows the government to revoke citizenship for dual citizens convicted of terrorism or high treason — effectively creating levels of Canadianness and problems where none existed.

For a man who insists on such intense control, the prime minister has not managed to control much that matters. The argument for all this secrecy was a technocratic impulse — he imagined Canada as a kind of Singapore, only more polite and rule abiding.

The major foreign policy goal of his tenure was the Keystone Pipeline, which Mr. Harper ultimately failed to deliver. The Canadian dollar has returned to the low levels that once earned it the title of the northern peso. Despite being left in a luxurious position of strength after the global recession, he coasted on what he knew: oil. In the run-up to the election, the Bank of Canada has announced that Canada just had two straight quarters of contraction — the technical definition of a recession. He has been a poor manager by any metric.

The early polls show Mr. Harper trailing, but he’s beaten bad polls before. He has been prime minister for nearly a decade for a reason: He promised a steady and quiet life, undisturbed by painful facts. The Harper years have not been terrible; they’ve just been bland and purposeless. Mr. Harper represents the politics of willful ignorance. It has its attractions.

Whether or not he loses, he will leave Canada more ignorant than he found it. The real question for the coming election is a simple but grand one: Do Canadians like their country like that?
__________
A novelist and a columnist at Esquire Magazine who lives in Toronto.


This appears to be the Stephen Marche who penned this OPINION piece.
 
E.R. Campbell said:
And here, reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions of the Copyright Act from the Globe and Mail is an analysis of the "looooooong campaign" that suggests that Prime Minister harper is looking at this 92015) election and a potential next election is he only gets a minority:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-debate/the-long-campaign-is-the-strategy/article25959325/

Exactly.  As I said two weeks ago:

PPCLI Guy said:
This is why we have a 78 day election.  The government refunds 50% of the spending by parties federally, and 60% locally, once the election is done.  That means that if the Conservatives spend the full $50M on this election (and I do not believe that the other two parties will be able to raise that much), they will have a war chest of $25M which is the maximum for a normal 37 day election - say in 6-12 months after a Conservative or NDP minority.

This is a cynical genius at work.
 
Jed said:
This will eventually push Saskatchewan in a direction similar to what Manitoba has taken, It will be Regina and Saskatoon count, let the other folks take the hindmost. Just like the Manitoba model: Winnipeg is what matters, who cares about the rest of the province, including Brandon.

Wait a sec, I thought only Toronto could be the self-centred evil nexus of a province/country?  ???
 
Hitler gets bad news about the Canadian election!

For a little more levity https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G_TNlWStsk4

I love these Hitler parodies ;D
 
Good2Golf said:
Wait a sec, I thought only Toronto could be the self-centred evil nexus of a province/country?  ???

I could have used that comparison as well,  ;) and I got quite a chuckle out of the latest Hitler parody as well.
 
E.R. Campbell said:
...
I remain convinced that the Tories will want to keep reminding Ontarians about Justin Trudeau and Kathleen Wynne ...

   
r-JUSTIN-TRUDEAU-KATHLEEN-WYNNE-PRIDE-large570.jpg


          ...


And it appears, according to this article which is reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions of the Copyright Act from the Globe and Mail, that some Liberals might be worried:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/liberals-unsure-if-wynne-a-boon-or-bane-for-trudeau-in-ontario/article25976807/
gam-masthead.png

Liberals unsure if Wynne a boon or a bane for Trudeau in Ontario

ADAM RADWANSKI
The Globe and Mail

Published Friday, Aug. 14, 2015

With their fate resting largely on their ability to break through in the country’s largest province, Justin Trudeau’s Liberals need what Kathleen Wynne has.

They need the hundreds of political staff who work for her provincial Liberal government to hit the ground, helping run local campaigns or knocking on doors in their spare time. They need the experience that comes with having run winning provincial campaigns in ridings where they have been wiped off the map federally. They need her party’s volunteer lists, and whatever other data it has been able to share.

Just how much they need the Ontario Premier herself, though, is a different question. On that front, views among federal Liberals are more mixed – not that her personal level of involvement in the current federal campaign is necessarily up to them.

“No matter what we say, I think she wants to be involved in some capacity,” a member of Mr. Trudeau’s campaign team said this week.

Harbouring apparently genuine animosity toward Stephen Harper, in part because of his opposition to (and obstruction of) her effort to introduce a provincial pension program, Ms. Wynne is aiming to use her political capital to try to get the Conservatives out of office.

Since the federal campaign officially began, she has actively sought out opportunities to insert herself into it. Attacking Mr. Harper for the early writ drop, she volunteered that he “thinks Canadians can be bought.” On national radio and while attending the opening of a Liberal candidate’s campaign office, she suggested nation-building projects such as a national railroad wouldn’t have happened under Mr. Harper’s watch.

What is not entirely clear is whether Ms. Wynne has much political capital at the moment. Fifteen months after the past Ontario election, she is at the point in her mandate where a government’s support often ebbs, because it is getting heavy lifting out of the way well before it faces voters again. Several public opinion polls have shown the provincial Liberals taking a hit.

Members of Ms. Wynne’s camp said this week that internal polling shows her in much better shape. And a top official on Mr. Trudeau’s camp backed that up, describing her as the most popular of Ontario’s provincial leaders.

Among other federal Liberals, there is a general consensus that Ms. Wynne is indeed helpful in downtown Toronto, where the Premier’s urbane persona continues to play relatively well, and where she is expected to soon appear alongside Mr. Trudeau at a campaign event. But among some campaign officials and candidates, there is a belief she is as much a hindrance as a help elsewhere – including not just rural and small-town ridings, where they are in tough regardless, but also suburban battlegrounds.

There are three flashpoints, or potential ones, they tend to cite.

The one that got the most attention over the first half of this year, the province’s new sex-education curriculum, is probably least important. Most federal and provincial Liberals alike now say they believe the issue is a net positive for them. Still, there are some pockets – most significantly Toronto-area immigrant communities – where Liberal candidates continue to hear negatively about it.

More relevant is the province’s plan to privatize the energy utility Hydro One. To some left-of-centre voters who defected from the NDP to the Liberals in the past Ontario election, it looks like a betrayal. To others, it’s a reminder of their overall unhappiness with provincial energy policies and rising prices.

Most worrisome for the Liberals in terms of how it could play over the balance of the campaign is the province’s contract impasse with teachers, and the potential for job action this fall. Members of Mr. Trudeau’s team concede that, if matters come to a head, they may have to limit their leader’s time in Ontario around the start of the school year.

Tying these last two in particular together, and any other grievances besides, is the potential for a general sense of fatigue with a provincial government in power for a dozen years, and currently spending lots of time in voters’ faces. As Mr. Trudeau competes with the NDP’s Thomas Mulcair to establish himself as a change agent, having Ms. Wynne so visible on his behalf could confuse matters.

But then, a third-place party that won 11 seats in Ontario in the past federal election is hardly in position to second-guess a Premier who led her party to more than five times that number. Unlike Mr. Trudeau, on whom the jury is out, Ms. Wynne has already proven herself a strong campaigner. Picking a fight with Mr. Harper at the start of last year’s provincial campaign worked out well for her, and perhaps her instincts are right again.

And if those instincts are wrong, there’s not much the federal Liberals can do about it. Needing Ms. Wynne’s organizational help too much to risk alienating her, they’ll just have to take any bad with the good.


My perception is that Premier Wynne doesn't really care too much about who wins Ottawa in Oct ~ her problem is with the policy centre in Ottawa which will not change all that much.

I suspect that Premier Wynne and M Trudeau are popular and unpopular in the same areas. In other words he help may be useful against the NDP but not against the CPC.
 
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