2025 Federal Election - 28 Apr 25

[MilEME09]

Your diaper has been leaking on the floor for a few elections. If the Liberals just change leaders the public memory seems to vanish.

Public memory vanished as well for just how bad the Harper years were as well.

 

[CBH99]

Public memory vanished as well for just how bad the Harper years were as well.

Speak for yourself here man, I was SUBSTANTIALLY happier during the Harper years!!

Back in the day when I actually had some social/economic mobility, and wasn't paying a tax for the f**king air, and when I didn't get the impression in the slightest that our political leaders were overtly TRYING to destroy the country...

(they can't just come out and say they're taking us for air, so they call it a carbon tax instead - as if carbon isn't the 2nd most abundant element in the entire known universe)



I also don't remember any PCO reports basically describing a 2nd world country akin to the Hunger Games back then either...

And the idea of bringing 1.4 million people here per year WASN'T on the agenda.

(How we can possibly vet 1.4 million people in 365 days is still lost on me! Less than that when we count holidays!)



If you consider the Harper years as bad years, I have to ask...what do you consider to be the good years??

 

[Good2Golf]

I wholly agree with you- I'm just not convinced that's the way it will go down. I question the degree to which the "the CPC" as an entity will have the ability to act independently of his grassroots influence.

The believers aren't going to blame him for losing, they're going to blame the rest of Canada for not choosing him.

Potentially, but by grassroots, if you mean the Reform/Alliance side of the CPC, that will likely come across to the more central segment of the party as shouting in their own echo chamber and it will become a numbers game at the leadership review. There were few Reformers east of Kenora, so it might not be the bastion of a defence against rejection that some might believe it will be.

 

[IKnowNothing]

I also don't remember any PCO reports basically describing a 2nd world country akin to the Hunger Games back then either...

And there isn't one now- there's the propagandist misrepresentation of a "what if" scenario generated by sub department of Economic and Social Development Canada that is tasked with exploring "what ifs"

Other scenarios in the link below

Our Work

 

[RangerRay]

The Conservatives will still enter the next election with the conventionally perceived advantage of the LPC having clearly hit what in Canada is usually a best by date. Hell, that should have given it to them in this one but for a combination of a) they fucked it up, and b) Trudeau’s resignation wound back the odometer a bit. Unless Carney really fundamentally changes the LPC’s policy approaches though, the diaper should be over-full come the next election.

I would add Trump turning up the imperial-meter up to 11 to that as well.

 

[MilEME09]

Speak for yourself here man, I was SUBSTANTIALLY happier during the Harper years!!

Back in the day when I actually had some social/economic mobility, and wasn't paying a tax for the f**king air, and when I didn't get the impression in the slightest that our political leaders were overtly TRYING to destroy the country...

(they can't just come out and say they're taking us for air, so they call it a carbon tax instead - as if carbon isn't the 2nd most abundant element in the entire known universe)



I also don't remember any PCO reports basically describing a 2nd world country akin to the Hunger Games back then either...

And the idea of bringing 1.4 million people here per year WASN'T on the agenda.

(How we can possibly vet 1.4 million people in 365 days is still lost on me! Less than that when we count holidays!)



If you consider the Harper years as bad years, I have to ask...what do you consider to be the good years??

The interesting thing about taxes is our tax rates went down during the Trudeau years, during the Harper years it was corporate taxes that went down, combined with personal exemption amounts going up. Wage growth was non existent, I gained two raises of 50 cents each in those years. You complain about the carbon tax but aside from prices at the pump, it affected 30 cents for every $100 at the grocery store for example, so itès not as terrible as many call it.

I remember a gov lawyer in the Harper days saying they had no obligation to veterans, I remember my mother losing her job during the financial crisis and having to take two min wage jobs just to get by.

The last 9 years? I've seen my wages grow over 20k, I bought my first home, and I have gotten substantial amounts back on my tax returns each year which I reinvest in my kids education funds.

 

[IKnowNothing]

Potentially, but by grassroots, if you mean the Reform/Alliance side of the CPC, that will likely come across to the more central segment of the party as shouting in their own echo chamber and it will become a numbers game at the leadership review. There were few Reformers east of Kenora, so it might not be the bastion of a defence against rejection that some might believe it will be.

The pre-existing Reform/Alliance is part of it yes. But I believe there's also a significant "PPP" (Pro Pierre Poilevre) element that has been cultivated and groomed via social media, that amounts to a wholly new "faction" of the party, separate from the traditional Reform / PC camps. It's not a perfect heuristic- but let's use "Members who supported Peter Mackay in 2020" as a proxy for the PC wing. That number is/was just shy of 53k. Poilievre signed up 300k members and won every single riding outside of Quebec- and has likely grown his support in the 3 years since (if my rural Ontario social media feed is any indication), + shown a tremendous ability to fundraise from this group, get this group out to rallies, etc.

If he can keep them mobilized / on side the PPP + R/A camps absolutely dwarf the traditional PC camp. Absent an immediate caucus revolt, there will be a span of months between the election and the mandatory review/vote at the national convention. Months where he'll have control of the communications apparatus, and the party warchest at his disposal, presumably with Byrne running around in the background. That's an uphill battle for Ford/other challengers to wrest control of the necessary delegates to even trigger a leadership contest.

I hope I'm wrong, but I think the CPC grabbed a populist tiger by the tail and is now along for the ride.

 

[Remius]

The interesting thing about taxes is our tax rates went down during the Trudeau years, during the Harper years it was corporate taxes that went down, combined with personal exemption amounts going up. Wage growth was non existent, I gained two raises of 50 cents each in those years. You complain about the carbon tax but aside from prices at the pump, it affected 30 cents for every $100 at the grocery store for example, so itès not as terrible as many call it.

I remember a gov lawyer in the Harper days saying they had no obligation to veterans, I remember my mother losing her job during the financial crisis and having to take two min wage jobs just to get by.

The last 9 years? I've seen my wages grow over 20k, I bought my first home, and I have gotten substantial amounts back on my tax returns each year which I reinvest in my kids education funds.

I had my class B cut, class A at the time was severely cut back and units were stood down.

DRAP happened as well coupled with phoenix fiasco.

Scientists were muzzled and data capture was not something Harper wanted.

Bad legislation was created.

Procedurally the CPC set precedents that are unfortunately emulated today.

It was far from any sort of end of the world but it wasn’t all roses either.

 

[Remius]

Gregory Jack: Canada’s generational divide and an election we didn’t see coming

Poilievre's problem is that the question is no longer about how to fix Canada’s institutions, but how to defend them.

www.readtheline.ca

Good take on things

 

[RangerRay]

The pre-existing Reform/Alliance is part of it yes. But I believe there's also a significant "PPP" (Pro Pierre Poilevre) element that has been cultivated and groomed via social media, that amounts to a wholly new "faction" of the party, separate from the traditional Reform / PC camps. It's not a perfect heuristic- but let's use "Members who supported Peter Mackay in 2020" as a proxy for the PC wing. That number is/was just shy of 53k. Poilievre signed up 300k members and won every single riding outside of Quebec- and has likely grown his support in the 3 years since (if my rural Ontario social media feed is any indication), + shown a tremendous ability to fundraise from this group, get this group out to rallies, etc.

If he can keep them mobilized / on side the PPP + R/A camps absolutely dwarf the traditional PC camp. Absent an immediate caucus revolt, there will be a span of months between the election and the mandatory review/vote at the national convention. Months where he'll have control of the communications apparatus, and the party warchest at his disposal, presumably with Byrne running around in the background. That's an uphill battle for Ford/other challengers to wrest control of the necessary delegates to even trigger a leadership contest.

I hope I'm wrong, but I think the CPC grabbed a populist tiger by the tail and is now along for the ride.

I just think O’Toole should have been given another chance.

 

[Remius]

I just think O’Toole should have been given another chance.

He’s be PM right now.

 

[brihard]

He’s be PM right now.

O’Toole or MacKay would have been easy CPC votes for me.

 

[RangerRay]

O’Toole or MacKay would have been easy CPC votes for me.

Yeah, I was silly for thinking MacKay would be PM after 4 years of Trudeau.

 

[Remius]

O’Toole or MacKay would have been easy CPC votes for me.

I suspect that the LPC minority wouldn’t have survived as long as it did, the supply arrangement wouldn’t have been a thing either. Otoole could have worked across the aisle with the other parties and could have triggered a non confidence motion far earlier.

Trump would not have been a factor. Ford would not be a factor.

Ah well. Hindsight is 20/20

 

[IKnowNothing]

I just think O’Toole should have been given another chance.

Agreed completely. But of the 45 that likely supported his survival, off the top of my head vets like Ed Fast and Karen Vecchio (replaced by Andrew Laughton-almost sure to be a PP loyalist) are gone, young up and comer PC's like Nater, Rempel-Garner have been sidelined and treated like the red-headed step-children of the party. Of the leadership contenders Aitchison (disapointingly) seemingly bent the ideological knee, Baber and Lewis are right at home under PP's style and direction. Who's got the horses to lead a coup?

 

[RangerRay]

I suspect that the LPC minority wouldn’t have survived as long as it did, the supply arrangement wouldn’t have been a thing either. Otoole could have worked across the aisle with the other parties and could have triggered a non confidence motion far earlier.

Trump would not have been a factor. Ford would not be a factor.

Ah well. Hindsight is 20/20

Maxime Bernier’s vanity project might have been up to 5% though.

 

[Remius]

Maxime Bernier’s vanity project might have been up to 5% though.

Possibly but Trudeau would be the incumbent Otoole would face as he wouldn’t have been ousted at that point.

 

[RangerRay]

Possibly but Trudeau would be the incumbent Otoole would face as he wouldn’t have been ousted at that point.

My point being the Tories may have lost a couple of tight seats or won seats in the Prairies with 50% instead of 70%, but could have won more seats in places that matter.

 

[SeaKingTacco]

So, if the Liberals win (seems likely), are they just going to double down on rewarding their constituencies (government employees; boomers)?

Or will they moderate under Carney and actual consider helping both under 30 year olds and rural Canadians, who are absolutely getting smoked?

 

[Good2Golf]

The pre-existing Reform/Alliance is part of it yes. But I believe there's also a significant "PPP" (Pro Pierre Poilevre) element that has been cultivated and groomed via social media, that amounts to a wholly new "faction" of the party, separate from the traditional Reform / PC camps. It's not a perfect heuristic- but let's use "Members who supported Peter Mackay in 2020" as a proxy for the PC wing. That number is/was just shy of 53k. Poilievre signed up 300k members and won every single riding outside of Quebec- and has likely grown his support in the 3 years since (if my rural Ontario social media feed is any indication), + shown a tremendous ability to fundraise from this group, get this group out to rallies, etc.

If he can keep them mobilized / on side the PPP + R/A camps absolutely dwarf the traditional PC camp. Absent an immediate caucus revolt, there will be a span of months between the election and the mandatory review/vote at the national convention. Months where he'll have control of the communications apparatus, and the party warchest at his disposal, presumably with Byrne running around in the background. That's an uphill battle for Ford/other challengers to wrest control of the necessary delegates to even trigger a leadership contest.

I hope I'm wrong, but I think the CPC grabbed a populist tiger by the tail and is now along for the ride.

If that’s the case, then I don’t think the CPC will ever get to a 25+ point lead ever again…