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2025 Federal Election - 28 Apr 25

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I pretty much completely disagree with your take on the NDP. They are likely done as a meaningful federal party after this election. A vote for NDP is just an inefficient vote for the LPC.

The party would be a lot further ahead if they had a leader with any political acumen at all, and had forced the LPC to the polls back when Trudeau was still PM.

As for how the LPC should govern to hold power, the smart move would be to work with the CPC. Don't give them anything to object to too strongly, and maybe steal some of their support from the center. If the LPC stick to the NDP as their primary dance partner, they may find themselves in the losing side after another few months/years.

The vote distribution between CPC and LPC shows a pretty clear desire for centrist policy from the electorate.
You’re looking at seat count for seat count’s sake; I’m looking at their ability to achieve policy objectives, which is generally my measure of a party’s efficacy.

I would like to see the LPC govern as much from the center as possible. Hopefully CPC, or enough of them, recognize that for the next while things a time to work together on a consensus basis for national objectives.

Maybe the CPC go for it; maybe they take their ball, go home, and Pierre goes to IKEA to buy a new chair.

If LPC don’t get traction from CPC, the NDP are easily in a position to continue to haggle support for policy advancement as they did previously, and with some success, during the supply and confidence agreement. While NDP appear poised for an historic low one seat below Audrey McLaughlin’s 1993 showing of 9 seats, McLaughlin was at the helm of a fourth party against a Liberal majority- not dissimilar from the impotence NDP would have faced had they forced an election that returned a CPC majority.

While they got their asses kicked seat wise, if they’re still in the kingmaker role, then bluntly they’ll be in a better position in Parliament than the CPC despite have 5% of the CPC’s seat count.

The basic calculus has never changed for the NDP. They cannot and will not win an election outright, their interests are always best served by leveraging their seats to prop up a minority. While more seats is better, 7 seats that leverage their ability to prop up a minority is more meaningful than 100 seats heckling a majority. Jack Layton had 104 seats for 4 years against a CPC majority. How much did he achieve?
 
PP is fighting for his political life, now. How he presents himself over the next few weeks will say volumes about where he perceives the power centre in the CPC to be. Are they Doug Ford/Tim Houston Conservatives or MAGA lite Conservatives?
Agreed. Back to "what's a Conservative?"
My gut feel is that, Liberal election campaign propaganda notwithstanding, the average Conservative MP is quite a bit more pragmatic than one would think. I don’t actually believe that the CPC is a raging bunch of Trumpists….
1000% agreed, especially the bit in yellow. That said, as with any other party, we'll see how many of the harder-charging ideologues in the party apparatus control the levers of power, versus what most of the membership tends to be like.
 
You’re looking at seat count for seat count’s sake; I’m looking at their ability to achieve policy objectives, which is generally my measure of a party’s efficacy.

I would like to see the LPC govern as much from the center as possible. Hopefully CPC, or enough of them, recognize that for the next while things a time to work together on a consensus basis for national objectives.

Maybe the CPC go for it; maybe they take their ball, go home, and Pierre goes to IKEA to buy a new chair.

If LPC don’t get traction from CPC, the NDP are easily in a position to continue to haggle support for policy advancement as they did previously, and with some success, during the supply and confidence agreement. While NDP appear poised for an historic low one seat below Audrey McLaughlin’s 1993 showing of 9 seats, McLaughlin was at the helm of a fourth party against a Liberal majority- not dissimilar from the impotence NDP would have faced had they forced an election that returned a CPC majority.

While they got their asses kicked seat wise, if they’re still in the kingmaker role, then bluntly they’ll be in a better position in Parliament than the CPC despite have 5% of the CPC’s seat count.

The basic calculus has never changed for the NDP. They cannot and will not win an election outright, their interests are always best served by leveraging their seats to prop up a minority. While more seats is better, 7 seats that leverage their ability to prop up a minority is more meaningful than 100 seats heckling a majority. Jack Layton had 104 seats for 4 years against a CPC majority. How much did he achieve?
And this is the leverage Carney holds. He can go to both the NDP and factions within the CPC and say that he will go with the other guys, unless you play ball my way and you lose all influence for 4 years. Or, you can be inside the tent. Who makes a deal first?
 
You’re looking at seat count for seat count’s sake; I’m looking at their ability to achieve policy objectives, which is generally my measure of a party’s efficacy.

I would like to see the LPC govern as much from the center as possible. Hopefully CPC, or enough of them, recognize that for the next while things a time to work together on a consensus basis for national objectives.

Maybe the CPC go for it; maybe they take their ball, go home, and Pierre goes to IKEA to buy a new chair.

If LPC don’t get traction from CPC, the NDP are easily in a position to continue to haggle support for policy advancement as they did previously, and with some success, during the supply and confidence agreement. While NDP appear poised for an historic low one seat below Audrey McLaughlin’s 1993 showing of 9 seats, McLaughlin was at the helm of a fourth party against a Liberal majority- not dissimilar from the impotence NDP would have faced had they forced an election that returned a CPC majority.

While they got their asses kicked seat wise, if they’re still in the kingmaker role, then bluntly they’ll be in a better position in Parliament than the CPC despite have 5% of the CPC’s seat count.

The basic calculus has never changed for the NDP. They cannot and will not win an election outright, their interests are always best served by leveraging their seats to prop up a minority. While more seats is better, 7 seats that leverage their ability to prop up a minority is more meaningful than 100 seats heckling a majority. Jack Layton had 104 seats for 4 years against a CPC majority. How much did he achieve?

And nothing stops the NDP asking for party status in exchange for support.
 
And this is the leverage Carney holds. He can go to both the NDP and factions within the CPC and say that he will go with the other guys, unless you play ball my way and you lose all influence for 4 years. Or, you can be inside the tent. Who makes a deal first?
Bingo. He has three options to get him to 172 on any given bill, and they all know it. He’s in a position to deal, and no one party has him over a barrel. He can go to the COC first and say “hey, if you give me four votes for this I’ll swing this thing you want a bit more your way. Otherwise I’ll offer a deal to the NDP or Bloc, I’ll still get what I’m looking for, and you won’t get anything” and so on.

NDP are in part victims of the extreme polarization of this particular election; there will be reversion to the mean in future. They’re still a progressive left party in a time of economic turmoil and disenchantment. They’re still still have strong provincial machines. They’ll recover in the fullness of time. They’ll want to demonstrate relevance by showing their supporters “look, we can still make deals to move the pieces down the board on these couple of things we’ve been pushing for”.

I think we may actually see another pretty stable minority for a while here. Carney only needs a few votes on a given issue and he has three distinct options, all of which can be motivated to come to the table. That assumes we don’t see four more seats either flip with the last advance and special ballots counted, and/or with floor crossers.
 
A bit more from the more-than-15-minutes-of-famous Kory T via CTV News ...
... While many pundits have credited Carney’s success to the threats to Canada’s economy and sovereignty posed by U.S. President Donald Trump, political strategist Kory Teneycke believes Poilievre’s party made a critical mistake long before America’s tariffs were announced.

“The biggest strategic error that the Conservatives had going into this election was pounding Justin Trudeau and the Liberals with tens of millions of dollars of advertising,” Teneycke told CTV News during Monday’s election coverage.

Years of attacks had Trudeau polling below 20 per cent by the time he resigned in January, leaving Poilievre without a favoured political punching bag, said Teneycke, who led Ontario’s Progressive Conservatives to three straight majority governments as Premier Doug Ford’s campaign manager.

“If Pierre Poilievre was fighting against Justin Trudeau – you keep everything else the same – we’d be having a Conservative majority tonight,” he added. “We went too hard in the lead-up to the campaign and we got rid of the guy who was going to deliver a victory for us.” ...
 
Bingo. He has three options to get him to 172 on any given bill, and they all know it. He’s in a position to deal, and no one party has him over a barrel. He can go to the COC first and say “hey, if you give me four votes for this I’ll swing this thing you want a bit more your way. Otherwise I’ll offer a deal to the NDP or Bloc, I’ll still get what I’m looking for, and you won’t get anything” and so on.

NDP are in part victims of the extreme polarization of this particular election; there will be reversion to the mean in future. They’re still a progressive left party in a time of economic turmoil and disenchantment. They’re still still have strong provincial machines. They’ll recover in the fullness of time. They’ll want to demonstrate relevance by showing their supporters “look, we can still make deals to move the pieces down the board on these couple of things we’ve been pushing for”.

I think we may actually see another pretty stable minority for a while here. Carney only needs a few votes on a given issue and he has three distinct options, all of which can be motivated to come to the table. That assumes we don’t see four more seats either flip with the last advance and special ballots counted, and/or with floor crossers.
It would not shock me if Carney is not already working the phones with Ford, Houston, Kanew and maybe Eby, to find out who they think a deal can be made with in each Province…
 
Interesting tidbit I learned:

The Leader of the Conservative Party of Canada is of course a positioned by their own constitution. However, the office of Leader of the Official Opposition in the house is actually defined under Parliamentary rules, and requires that one be sitting as a Member of Parliament. So, while Poilievre can stay on as party leader should so choose, they will need to pick someone with a seat to fulfil the role of opposition leader in the house. That works against Poilievre staying on; even if someone vacates a seat for him to parachute into a safe riding, it would probably be several months before a byelection. I think Poilievre has very limited time to make survival moves.

I also think Poilievre should take satisfaction after twenty odd years serving Canadians in Parliament, and disconnected and spend a whole bunch of time with his family. He’s earned a dignified retirement from his service in Parliament.
 
And nothing stops the NDP asking for party status in exchange for support.
Why?
They are leaderless
They are broke
They are close to irrelevant
The Liberals could quite possible go to those 7 and say, join us formally and you'll have more funding, more staffing and positions of power.
Imagine if the Liberals could reduce the NDP to 'nothingness' for the next 4-5yrs?
 
I also think Poilievre should take satisfaction after twenty odd years serving Canadians in Parliament, and disconnected and spend a whole bunch of time with his family. He’s earned a dignified retirement from his service in Parliament.
And largely bereft of things like black face, getting caught lying, being unethical.
 
I also think Poilievre should take satisfaction after twenty odd years serving Canadians in Parliament, and disconnected and spend a whole bunch of time with his family. He’s earned a dignified retirement from his service in Parliament.
The man has one of the largest pensions of any MP, ever, he could gracefully retire and never work again if he wanted to
 
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