You’re looking at seat count for seat count’s sake; I’m looking at their ability to achieve policy objectives, which is generally my measure of a party’s efficacy.I pretty much completely disagree with your take on the NDP. They are likely done as a meaningful federal party after this election. A vote for NDP is just an inefficient vote for the LPC.
The party would be a lot further ahead if they had a leader with any political acumen at all, and had forced the LPC to the polls back when Trudeau was still PM.
As for how the LPC should govern to hold power, the smart move would be to work with the CPC. Don't give them anything to object to too strongly, and maybe steal some of their support from the center. If the LPC stick to the NDP as their primary dance partner, they may find themselves in the losing side after another few months/years.
The vote distribution between CPC and LPC shows a pretty clear desire for centrist policy from the electorate.
I would like to see the LPC govern as much from the center as possible. Hopefully CPC, or enough of them, recognize that for the next while things a time to work together on a consensus basis for national objectives.
Maybe the CPC go for it; maybe they take their ball, go home, and Pierre goes to IKEA to buy a new chair.
If LPC don’t get traction from CPC, the NDP are easily in a position to continue to haggle support for policy advancement as they did previously, and with some success, during the supply and confidence agreement. While NDP appear poised for an historic low one seat below Audrey McLaughlin’s 1993 showing of 9 seats, McLaughlin was at the helm of a fourth party against a Liberal majority- not dissimilar from the impotence NDP would have faced had they forced an election that returned a CPC majority.
While they got their asses kicked seat wise, if they’re still in the kingmaker role, then bluntly they’ll be in a better position in Parliament than the CPC despite have 5% of the CPC’s seat count.
The basic calculus has never changed for the NDP. They cannot and will not win an election outright, their interests are always best served by leveraging their seats to prop up a minority. While more seats is better, 7 seats that leverage their ability to prop up a minority is more meaningful than 100 seats heckling a majority. Jack Layton had 104 seats for 4 years against a CPC majority. How much did he achieve?