2025 Federal Election - 28 Apr 25

[lenaitch]

@lenaitch You're talking out of both sides of your mouth. If young people aren't politically engaged they're never going to care about Jenni Byrne in a MAGA hat. You're are right in that social media run by China as a giant InfoOp or by 90%+ left leaners in Silicon Valley skews the view to the left and manipulates what people consume is tainting the image of the CPC.

I don't think I am. Not being politically engaged does not mean they aren't in play. Hell, the vast majority of the electorate isn't particularly politically engaged; although it will be interesting to see voter turnout this time. The fact that certain demographics vote in low numbers doesn't mean that they aren't being chased.

The topic of abortion was probably started by me and came to mind when I was listening to a radio call-in show that was discussing voting intentions of 'young persons', particularly young females, and the parallels with what has been seen to be happening in the US was impacting opinions. Reproductive rights/bodily autonomy was part of it, although not all of it. And those concerns were translating into what they perceive as being the political landscape here. Not my views - I'm neither young nor female - just my interpretation of what I heard.

It's not dumb. No one who really listens to politics in this country believes the CPC is going to ban abortion, but if any party is going to have members who will try, it's going to the CPC. Ergo, the "possibility" of an abortion ban under the LPC (or NDP) is effectively 0, while the "possibility" of an abortion ban under the CPC is relatively MUCH greater (though still statistically insignificant). So, for people who only pay attention to the surface layer of politics, they see one party as having the potential to bring forth anti-abortion laws, and that's enough to send them running scared.

Absolutely.

 

[mariomike]

The fact that certain demographics vote in low numbers doesn't mean that they aren't being chased.

Ekos posted this yesterday. They say, "the campaign has settled into a highly stable pattern"

Race Highly Stable as Liberals Maintain 12.5-Point Lead​

[Ottawa – April 11, 2025] The race appears to have settled into a holding pattern, with the Liberal Party maintaining a stable 12.5-point lead. Both our three-day and five-day rolls (the latter offering more reliable regional estimates) show exactly the same top-line national results. The demographic and regional patterns also appear to have stabilized.

 

[OldSolduer]

I find it hard to think like the LPC followers. Ten years of corrupt, immoral, unethical government and the fools want another five with Carnie at the helm.

Insanity - doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results.

 

[Furniture]

I find it hard to think like the LPC followers. Ten years of corrupt, immoral, unethical government and the fools want another five with Carnie at the helm.

Insanity - doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results.

Politics is like sports, you pick a team and base your entire personality around it by the time you're out of high school.

Lots of people chose LPC back in the day, and have just stuck with it because it's comfortable. It also doesn't hurt that the mainstream media fawns over the LPC, and demonizes the CPC on the regular.

 

[Fishbone Jones]

It appears Poliviere made the right move after all.

Ryan Alford: Poilievre has been vindicated for refusing security clearance​

Ryan Alford: Poilievre has been vindicated for refusing security clearance

Had he gone through with it, he could have faced legal consequences for his comments on Chinese interference in this election

nationalpost.com

 

[Maxman1]

Thomas Mulcair has been on CTV explaining why that was the right choice the whole time.

 

[Furniture]

Thomas Mulcair has been on CTV explaining why that was the right choice the whole time.

Sounds like Maple MAGA conspiracy theories to me...

If you don't trust our Deal Leader, you aren't a real Canadien!

 

[Lumber]

I find it hard to think like the LPC followers. Ten years of corrupt, immoral, unethical government and the fools want another five with Carnie at the helm.

Insanity - doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results.

Politics is like sports, you pick a team and base your entire personality around it by the time you're out of high school.

Lots of people chose LPC back in the day, and have just stuck with it because it's comfortable. It also doesn't hurt that the mainstream media fawns over the LPC, and demonizes the CPC on the regular.

I except that's not what's happening. The LPC is ahead because they've syphoned off voters from the NDP and BQ, and like some red Tories as well. If you want to understand why, see my post to KevinB a few pages back. For the most part, the people supporting the LPC do not want more of the last 10 years, and they are assessing (and hoping) that with Carney that it won't be. Your definition of insanity doesn't hold unless you blithely assume Carney = Trudeau.

 

[suffolkowner]

I find it hard to think like the LPC followers. Ten years of corrupt, immoral, unethical government and the fools want another five with Carnie at the helm.

Insanity - doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results.

I except that's not what's happening. The LPC is ahead because they've syphoned off voters from the NDP and BQ, and like some red Tories as well. If you want to understand why, see my post to KevinB a few pages back. For the most part, the people supporting the LPC do not want more of the last 10 years, and they are assessing (and hoping) that with Carney that it won't be. Your definition of insanity doesn't hold unless you blithely assume Carney = Trudeau.

and that youd have to accept OldSoldiers premise in the first place or that it took priority over other considerations

 

[The Bread Guy]

It appears Poliviere made the right move after all.

Ryan Alford: Poilievre has been vindicated for refusing security clearance​

Ryan Alford: Poilievre has been vindicated for refusing security clearance

Had he gone through with it, he could have faced legal consequences for his comments on Chinese interference in this election

nationalpost.com

Why brief in, now, when you have a briefed-in Chief of Staff who can just nod/wink as needed, right? #HasCakeAndEatsItToo

Politics is like sports, you pick a team and base your entire personality around it by the time you're out of high school.

Lots of people chose LPC back in the day, and have just stuck with it because it's comfortable ...

That certainly explains a chunk of the core vote, for sure, but ....

... The LPC is ahead because they've syphoned off voters from the NDP and BQ, and like some red Tories as well ...

... this element is in play this time, too. Remember, Blue was WAY ahead in the polling after PP won the leadership. He spent a couple of years "opposing instead of proposing," which was his letter-of-the-law job as opposition leader, attacking the guy they wanted to go - who was, to be kind, a target-rich environment for the attacks. PP had the chance to be more Prime Ministerial, but folks kept saying, "not his job - Red'll steal the ideas - JT rates every kick in the nutz".

After JT was gotten rid of (IAW the push from Team Blue), it was like a dog chasing a car and catching it: what now?

Once Target Man left, a lotta Orange (and some BQ) left Blue & headed to Red. Wonder how much of the NDP vote headed Blue with the push on the private-sector unions? Who know? If the NDP was doing better, would the Liberals be doing worse enough to give Blue a better chance? Who knows?

Anyway, by this time, the attack dog persona was embedded, which I think is why that now seems to be the fallback mode. Continuing his recent trend all over the place, Kory Teneycke, Team Blue Queen's Park Franchise dude, goes off in a fair bit of (sometimes sweary) detail in this episode:

Yeah, he's just one guy, but ... If a kid in his basement said "this is a shitty rifle", that's one opinion. If an infanteer out of battle school says "this is a shitty rifle," that's another opinion. If an infanteer who's also a gunsmith says "this is a shitty rifle," that's yet another opinion. Some say nobody's opinion is any better than anyone else's, but out of these three, knowing nothing else but the descriptions, whose would pull more weight?

Let's see what the next few weeks brings. PP may be able to still turn it around, but I was also wrong about Team Red being too low to be helped even by the departure of JT, so ...

 

[suffolkowner]

Why brief in, now, when you have a briefed-in Chief of Staff who can just nod/wink as needed, right? #HasCakeAndEatsItToo

That certainly explains a chunk of the core vote, for sure, but ....

... this element is in play this time, too. Remember, Blue was WAY ahead in the polling after PP won the leadership. He spent a couple of years "opposing instead of proposing," which was his letter-of-the-law job as opposition leader, attacking the guy they wanted to go - who was, to be kind, a target-rich environment for the attacks. PP had the chance to be more Prime Ministerial, but folks kept saying, "not his job - Red'll steal the ideas - JT rates every kick in the nutz".

After JT was gotten rid of (IAW the push from Team Blue), it was like a dog chasing a car and catching it: what now?

Once Target Man left, a lotta Orange (and some BQ) left Blue & headed to Red. Wonder how much of the NDP vote headed Blue with the push on the private-sector unions? Who know? If the NDP was doing better, would the Liberals be doing worse enough to give Blue a better chance? Who knows?

Anyway, by this time, the attack dog persona was embedded, which I think is why that now seems to be the fallback mode. Continuing his recent trend all over the place, Kory Teneycke, Team Blue Queen's Park Franchise dude, goes off in a fair bit of (sometimes sweary) detail in this episode:

Yeah, he's just one guy, but ... If a kid in his basement said "this is a shitty rifle", that's one opinion. If an infanteer out of battle school says "this is a shitty rifle," that's another opinion. If an infanteer who's also a gunsmith says "this is a shitty rifle," that's yet another opinion. Some say nobody's opinion is any better than anyone else's, but out of these three, knowing nothing else but the descriptions, whose would you pull more weight?

Let's see what the next few weeks brings. PP may be able to still turn it around, but I was also wrong about Team Red being too low to be helped even by the departure of JT, so ...

I think PP needs to kill the debate and Carney to flub it massively to turn this around. Lots of lines to run on or maybe just one that resonates

 

[Good2Golf]

Why brief in, now, when you have a briefed-in Chief of Staff who can just nod/wink as needed, right?

“I’m going to *name a country and you just nod…..China…” [guy nods]

 

[Remius]

Why brief in, now, when you have a briefed-in Chief of Staff who can just nod/wink as needed, right? #HasCakeAndEatsItToo

That certainly explains a chunk of the core vote, for sure, but ....

... this element is in play this time, too. Remember, Blue was WAY ahead in the polling after PP won the leadership. He spent a couple of years "opposing instead of proposing," which was his letter-of-the-law job as opposition leader, attacking the guy they wanted to go - who was, to be kind, a target-rich environment for the attacks. PP had the chance to be more Prime Ministerial, but folks kept saying, "not his job - Red'll steal the ideas - JT rates every kick in the nutz".

After JT was gotten rid of (IAW the push from Team Blue), it was like a dog chasing a car and catching it: what now?

Once Target Man left, a lotta Orange (and some BQ) left Blue & headed to Red. Wonder how much of the NDP vote headed Blue with the push on the private-sector unions? Who know? If the NDP was doing better, would the Liberals be doing worse enough to give Blue a better chance? Who knows?

Anyway, by this time, the attack dog persona was embedded, which I think is why that now seems to be the fallback mode. Continuing his recent trend all over the place, Kory Teneycke, Team Blue Queen's Park Franchise dude, goes off in a fair bit of (sometimes sweary) detail in this episode:

Yeah, he's just one guy, but ... If a kid in his basement said "this is a shitty rifle", that's one opinion. If an infanteer out of battle school says "this is a shitty rifle," that's another opinion. If an infanteer who's also a gunsmith says "this is a shitty rifle," that's yet another opinion. Some say nobody's opinion is any better than anyone else's, but out of these three, knowing nothing else but the descriptions, whose would you pull more weight?

Let's see what the next few weeks brings. PP may be able to still turn it around, but I was also wrong about Team Red being too low to be helped even by the departure of JT, so ...

I can’t remember who it was that said it but when Trump started this whole thing and PP decided he wasn’t going to help enable Team Canada and any questions about what he would do was answered with “I’m not the PM” was an opportunity lost. He could have done what Doug Ford did, and hit the media circuit here and in the US. Instead as usual he waited to see where the wind was blowing and assumed he’d be facing Trudeau and would remain comfortable in the polling that had him way ahead.

 

[brihard]

Let's see what the next few weeks brings. PP may be able to still turn it around, but I was also wrong about Team Red being too low to be helped even by the departure of JT, so ...

In fairness to you I think we all were. Some of us expected ditching Trudeau would buoy Liberal support very modestly, but I don’t think even the wildest predictions here went beyond “they’ll fight tooth and nail to try to hold CPC to a minority”. While we probably all realized Trudeau was an anchor, none of us realized how much, or what what extent it had masked and buried dislike for Poilievre.

 

[Good2Golf]

In fairness to you I think we all were. Some of us expected ditching Trudeau would buoy Liberal support very modestly, but I don’t think even the wildest predictions here went beyond “they’ll fight tooth and nail to try to hold CPC to a minority”. While we probably all realized Trudeau was an anchor, none of us realized how much, or what what extent it had masked and buried dislike for Poilievre.

In terms of believing they had it in the bag, this ranks right up there with Team Blue in the US…

 

[suffolkowner]

In fairness to you I think we all were. Some of us expected ditching Trudeau would buoy Liberal support very modestly, but I don’t think even the wildest predictions here went beyond “they’ll fight tooth and nail to try to hold CPC to a minority”. While we probably all realized Trudeau was an anchor, none of us realized how much, or what what extent it had masked and buried dislike for Poilievre.

well we did have the recent Biden to Harris handover to go off of. I personally thought that they had left it to late but perhaps the timing was perfect or as good as it could be. By accident or design?

 

[YZT580]

I except that's not what's happening. The LPC is ahead because they've syphoned off voters from the NDP and BQ, and like some red Tories as well. If you want to understand why, see my post to KevinB a few pages back. For the most part, the people supporting the LPC do not want more of the last 10 years, and they are assessing (and hoping) that with Carney that it won't be. Your definition of insanity doesn't hold unless you blithely assume Carney = Trudeau.

if it walks like a duck....

 

[Remius]

In fairness to you I think we all were. Some of us expected ditching Trudeau would buoy Liberal support very modestly, but I don’t think even the wildest predictions here went beyond “they’ll fight tooth and nail to try to hold CPC to a minority”. While we probably all realized Trudeau was an anchor, none of us realized how much, or what what extent it had masked and buried dislike for Poilievre.

Up until recently I assumed that that was the best they could do was hold the CPC to a minority.

I still think a CPC minority is still in the cards. Polls are data points in times and I suspect that the CPC base is far more motivated to come out and vote than the LPC soft supporter is. Two weeks can still shift things but unless the debates really change things or something massively eventful happens it is getting a bit grim for the CPC.

One take I saw, was that we may see PP shift hard right if he feels he’s going to lose. Solidify his position with the more right wing elements of the party to save his job as party leader and try again in a few years assuming it is enough to stay on.

 

[brihard]

Up until recently I assumed that that was the best they could do was hold the CPC to a minority.

I still think a CPC minority is still in the cards. Polls are data points in times and I suspect that the CPC base is far more motivated to come out and vote than the LPC soft supporter is. Two weeks can still shift things but unless the debates really change things or something massively eventful happens it is getting a bit grim for the CPC.

One take I saw, was that we may see PP shift hard right if he feels he’s going to lose. Solidify his position with the more right wing elements of the party to save his job as party leader and try again in a few years assuming it is enough to stay on.

If Poilievre thinks he can save his job as party leader in the face of a loss he’s delusional. Delivering that sort of utter failure and epitomizing the “defeat from the jaws of victory” trope would be the end of his fortunes in the CPC. You don’t shit in the bed at summer camp and come back the next year.

 

[Good2Golf]

For the most part, the people supporting the LPC do not want more of the last 10 years, and they are assessing (and hoping) that with Carney that it won't be.

@Lumber, I think perhaps a large portion of LPC supporters feel that way, but I do think there is (as there always is for most any team) a group that are brand-focused, no matter the leader.

That said, I respect that a large enough group (polls’ numbers +/-) feel that Carney is different enough from Trudeau, and that he represents the best option to deal with the short-term issue of Trump, that he is their preferred choice.

Personally, I am trying to weight the risk to Canada of having the right approach to Trump, but very mindful of the existential threat of malign state actors, China in particular, that thrive in a permissive/semi-permissive/minimally-resistent environment that is Canada’s political space.

CPC had no sequel planning (what next) post-JT that I can see, and not even any meaning branch planning to meaningfully adjust the current campaign against Carney. That is entirely on the CPC for failing to pre-plan AND adapt. My own MP (PP) has crapped the bed on this. If he can’t even react to conditions in a manner that gives enough Canadians confidence in him and his team, let alone what he should have been doing is leading the issues with a resounding, inspiring option to the unconvinced, then one has to wonder when we could expect that. If not now, then when? Perhaps that in and of itself is enough to offset what I fear on the part of the LPC is to maintain the stealth closeness with China.

People said that Americans didn’t have much choice last November. I’m not sure at this point that Canadians will fare any better later this month.