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2025 Federal Election - 28 Apr 25

… So when I see those polls consistently putting the LPC ahead, it just flies in the face of everything I am seeing & experiencing locally...
Two truths can exist at the same time: party x can do ridiculously well in riding y while party z is doing well nationally. Like the memes saying country x is on fire when they only show the worst bits of 3-5 riots - what you see up close is as true right in that spot as what’s happening in the bigger picture.

Rallies can offer good pictures & a lot of energy to leaders who feed on that kind of energy. They also use up a shit-ton of resources that could be used for door knocking, so it sounds like a balancing of risk at any given point of the campaign. I learned a fair bit about that in this podcast (which also touches on the strategy & tactics of oppo research and the decisions behind dropping candifayes) featuring operatives from all 3 parties as guests). Worth the 45 minute listen/watch:

We’ll see if the honkin’ big, high-energy rallies in certain spots pan out into more votes and seats across Canada 🍿
 
Odder than lying about working with Paul Martin?
Maybe only 1/2 right, sorta-kinda, He may not have helped balance the budget while at GS/Oxford/wherever, but as SADM finance, he did technically help keep the budget balanced. Sloppy use of “and” if quoted correctly. He’ll learn - maybe?
 
I can’t believe it has to be explained that rally crowd size =\= electoral victory. Someone is drawing big crowds does not necessarily mean they are particularly popular amongst the wider population. It just means they have a more intense devotion amongst their supporters that may or may not translate into more votes than their opponents. If I recall correctly, Jack Layton was drawing large crowds, but he didn’t come close to defeating Harper.
 
I can’t believe it has to be explained that rally crowd size =\= electoral victory. Someone is drawing big crowds does not necessarily mean they are particularly popular amongst the wider population. It just means they have a more intense devotion amongst their supporters that may or may not translate into more votes than their opponents. If I recall correctly, Jack Layton was drawing large crowds, but he didn’t come close to defeating Harper.
This is it exactly.

Did you see the crowd in Sault St Marie? Neither did Pierre.

What the conservative machine seems really good at is mobilizing their base to show up. It’s a solid base. A motivated base. But I’m not sure that translates to increased engagement outside the base and in ridings they are behind in.

Also, bragging about crowd size when you are trying to show you are not like Trump doesn’t help.

The LPC already on that.

 
CPC has also been caught either A) lying about crowd sizes or B) knowing violating fire code limits. AB RCMP said the Edmonton rally was 9-12,000 vs the claimed 15,000+, another rally in Ontario claimed over 1000 but fire code for the building was 476.
Crowd size is pretty hard to estimate, but there is no way they crammed 1000 people into something rated for half that many (unless it was a huge space with two small exits).

Calculating occupant load is actually a massive asspain but doubling up on it would be a challenge, as it would probably mean every square foot is jammed packed with just people.
 
Crowd size is pretty hard to estimate, but there is no way they crammed 1000 people into something rated for half that many (unless it was a huge space with two small exits).

Calculating occupant load is actually a massive asspain but doubling up on it would be a challenge, as it would probably mean every square foot is jammed packed with just people.
There is also the not unrealistic possibility that people were also outside... But the CPC embellishing rally numbers definitely makes them worse than the SNC Lavalin, WE Charity, Two Michaels, Foreign Interference crowd running against them.
 
There is also the not unrealistic possibility that people were also outside... But the CPC embellishing rally numbers definitely makes them worse than the SNC Lavalin, WE Charity, Two Michaels, Foreign Interference crowd running against them.
From doing crowd movement studies, it's actually pretty hard to count crowds accurately, and there are a lot of psychological factors that make it harder in person (like loud boisterous crowds seem like more people than there really are).

But that's why there are people at the doors with clickers normally at clubs, so hopefully this is just a political fish tale and not them actually ignoring basic safety things for holding events. I strongly suspect it's the former, as most political staffers I've come across are born liars and also useless at life.
 
Paul Wells puts a pox on all their houses. Whether your team Red, Blue, Orange, Quebec Blue, or Green there is a rot in the system and I don’t think anyone in a position of influence wants to change it.

I've heard a few times in the last few hours about Pierre's apparent "adversarial nature" towards the press...

I see him taking questions from the press & giving solid answers.

You know who I didn't ever hear answer a single question with a simple, direct answer? Trudeau nor Freeland.


The media put up with 10 years of pre-screened questions, non-answers, and just verbal nonsense from the LPC...

But all of a sudden seem to be reporting how bad Pierre is for answering questions??

...

Believe your own eyes folks

(I don't trust a press that stands to gain huge financially if a certain party wins...)
 
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