2025 Federal Election - 28 Apr 25

[Jarnhamar]

Page 62. It's still pretty high level, but is infinitely more in depth than "this going to be rocket fuel, trust me"

You're right, that's a more in-depth plan. I see some issues with it.

Very high upfront debt and spending risk. $150B? Holy crap. If private investments don't pan out that puts Canada at risk for more deficits.
Plan expects $500B in private investment, what happens if that doesn't happen?
Heavily reliant on lots of uncertain economic factors.
$150B dumped into the economy could result in higher interest rates from the bank of Canada.
Big strain on current bureaucracy, could result in needing to higher more PS, not to mention the risk of delays and over runs - which we know how common that is in our government.

But yes, the plan is more in-depth.

 

[lenaitch]

I’ve already opined on the generational issues baby boomers refuse to take accountability for. Fact is that their days of being the larger voting and decision block is slowly waning. This also depends on what voter turnout out looks like.

Not trying to create some sort of hatred for boomers by any means, just pointing to the demographic and economic shift that will impact the next few years. Here and elsewhere.

I think broad brushing is pretty pointless; like saying a members of a certain race or religion vote a certain way. The hear it from Gen X or Millennials, particularly urban ones, Boomers are the root of all evil. Every Boomer sits on their pile of money like Scrooge McDuck drawing the defined benefit pension while spending their winters in the sun. The seniors I see working cash at the store, driving delivery or serving at Tim's must just be doing it to fill their day.

 

[IKnowNothing]

You're right, that's a more in-depth plan. I see some issues with it.

Very high upfront debt and spending risk. $150B? Holy crap. If private investments don't pan out that puts Canada at risk for more deficits.
Plan expects $500B in private investment, what happens if that doesn't happen?
Heavily reliant on lots of uncertain economic factors.

I'm not a fan of the extent of the largesse. That's why I'm so mad at Poilievre. His incompetence is what may just hand the PM office to Carney.

Ironic note as to the bolded.

Except from the LPC platform:

For reasons of prudence, this plan does not incorporate any dynamic effects from how these investments impact economic output. Our plan is that it will generate significant growth that in return generates additional revenue and increases the size of the economy, lowering the size of the deficit on both a relative and nominal basis, though we have not factored in those benefits.

Translation: if things go at all to plan, and happen as they usually do, these investments will lead to more tax revenue, and things will look better than we're projecting, but we can't count those chickens before they hatch.

On the other hand:

this platform was developed withinput from two of Canada’s most respected economic experts as verifiers and validators: Philip Cross,former Chief Economic Analyst at Statistics Canada, and Dr. Tim Sargent, former Associate DeputyMinister at Finance Canada.They reviewed and assessed the calculations and assumptions underlying individual measures andthe overall fiscal framework, including revenue projections tied to economic growth from eliminatingthe electric vehicle mandate, the emissions cap, the clean fuel standard, and implementing theproposed capital gains deferral holiday

Translation: We really believe that our non-financial measures are going to perform exactly as we predict, have had two experts agree, and as such have padded our forecast with 46.8 billion in extra revenues that we are confident will happen.

 

[Brad Sallows]

Translation: if things go at all to plan, and happen as they usually do, these investments will lead to more tax revenue, and things will look better than we're projecting, but we can't count those chickens before they hatch.

The correct translation of "does not incorporate any dynamic effects" is "GIGO". "Dynamic effects" - people reacting to news in ways suited to their own particular situations - begin as soon as governments announce something might happen.

 

[IKnowNothing]

The correct translation of "does not incorporate any dynamic effects" is "GIGO". "Dynamic effects" - people reacting to news in ways suited to their own particular situations - begin as soon as governments announce something might happen.

The LPC platform does not account for or rely on any growth in general tax revenues beyond PBO baseline forecast.

 

[Jarnhamar]

We can't afford that vs fuck yeah buy two.

 

[MilEME09]

We can't afford that vs fuck yeah buy two.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1914763783513444680

 

[IKnowNothing]

We can't afford that vs fuck yeah buy two.

Ah yes. The massive difference between 109 and 129 in new measures.

 

[Jarnhamar]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1914763783513444680

If only the Liberals had access to an economist over the last 10 years Canada would be in a better place. Thank heavens they finally got one.

 

[Jarnhamar]

Ah yes. The massive difference between 109 and 129 in new measures.

It's the mentality behind the parties here.

In 4 years we're going to have a bunch of broken Liberal promises, a bunch of excuses why things didn't work, and a bunch of promises of how if you give them just 4 more years things will be good to go.

 

[Czech_pivo]

I had expected that, given the amount of time Poilievre and the CPC have had to respond to the various various crises over the past few years, we would now be seeing a more comprehensive, believable platform.

I'm totally speculating here but I'm wondering if PP and the CPC went 'light' on the platform rollout because they were afraid of losing some of their new found ex-NDP supporters. Specifically around extra spending on the CAF and such as traditionally the NDP has not been supportive on expanding or even maintaining the capability of the CAF. In support of this, I would suggest looking at the NDP election platform the Singh et al's rolled out, it was even lighter than the CPC platform on spending for the CAF.

 

[MilEME09]

It's the mentality behind the parties here.

In 4 years we're going to have a bunch of broken Liberal promises, a bunch of excuses why things didn't work, and a bunch of promises of how if you give them just 4 more years things will be good to go.

Same could be said for the cpc, we would get 4 years of blaming Trudeau for why promise X wasn't done. Cause that's what every gov does

 

[JLB50]

I'm totally speculating here but I'm wondering if PP and the CPC went 'light' on the platform rollout because they were afraid of losing some of their new found ex-NDP supporters. Specifically around extra spending on the CAF and such as traditionally the NDP has not been supportive on expanding or even maintaining the capability of the CAF. In support of this, I would suggest looking at the NDP election platform the Singh et al's rolled out, it was even lighter than the CPC platform on spending for the CAF.

Mind you, the NDP has never been strong on supporting the CAF, except possibly for veterans.

 

[Furniture]

duel use means civilian infrastructure used for military purposes, a dedicated CFB means military only, staffed by military personal, different ball game

I'm sure CFB Comox would disagree with your assessment, as well as Trenton and Cold Lake, bases that see civilian use...

 

[dapaterson]

I'm sure CFB Comox would disagree with your assessment, as well as Trenton and Cold Lake, bases that see civilian use...

Air Force by definition is the next best thing to being in the military

 

[Quirky]

It's the mentality behind the parties here.

In 4 years we're going to have a bunch of broken Liberal promises, a bunch of excuses why things didn't work, and a bunch of promises of how if you give them just 4 more years things will be good to go.

Liberals are the only ones qualified to solve the mess that Liberals left. 4 more years to flatten the curve.

 

[daftandbarmy]

BC is a battleground? I'm shocked

The gap is currently 5.5 percentage points between the Liberals and the Conservatives (LPC 42.6, CPC 37.1, NDP 10.5). There has been some movement numerically from the Liberals to the NDP while Conservative support remains steady. There are two key groups that are absolute toss-ups in the latest nightly tracking – middle aged voters and voters in British Columbia. Among voters aged 35 to 54 the Conservatives are at 40 percent support followed by the Liberals at 39 percent. In battleground British Columbia, the Liberals and the Conservatives each have 40 percent support followed by the New Democrats at 19 percent. The current Liberal advantage is being driven by voters in Eastern Canada and those over 55 years of age. (Tracking ending April 21, 2025)

LPC 42.6, CPC 37.1, NDP 10.4, BQ 5.9, GP 3.1, PPC 0.8 (Tracking ending April 21, 2025) – Nanos Research

nanos.co

 

[Fishbone Jones]

If only the Liberals had access to an economist over the last 10 years Canada would be in a better place. Thank heavens they finally got onone.

Carney has been trudeau's financial genius for 5 years. It is his recommendations to trudeau that put us in the financial mess we're in now.

Although I guess you could argue he's a financier, not an economist. Harper is an economist and doesn't trust him to manage the economy.

 

[KevinB]

If only the Liberals had access to an economist over the last 10 years Canada would be in a better place. Thank heavens they finally got one.

That’s what kills me. Why is the guy behind the old plan (that really screwed all of you) all of a sudden has a better plan and it’s going to be better than his old plan.

Same Liberal Party but “it’s better trust us”.

Sigh.

 

[brihard]

Doug Ford’s education minister appears to have been tasked to poke Poilievre in the eyes today. Apprently this letter went out to at least some daycare parents in Ontario:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1914750844580286599

I can conceive of no reason for this whatsoever except to give the CPC a wee stab and a knife twist in the final week. I’m becoming more convinced Ford has designs on the CPC leadership.