2026 US-Denmark Tensions/End of NATO

[Halifax Tar]

Maybe not for general war with Europe per se, but do not count out the bite and hold strategies it has used with Ukraine. The Baltics are very vulnerable to that as are Armenia, Moldova, and Serbia (The last two aren't NATO but NATO adjacent).

Post WW2 Soviet expansion had put significant ethnic Russian populations in these (and other former Warsaw block) countries. Hybrid warfare by way of disinformation and manipulation continues apace, and if not aggressively countered, could lead to erosion of non-Russian European interests.

This is not the time to take the eye off the ball. Don't think big war. Think hybrid war and what needs to be done to defeat it. And yes, the commitment of a flyover Canadian division for Latvia has a big role to play in that both as a deterrent and as a commitment that gives us a strong chip at the table.

I guess where we differ is I just don't see why we need a chip or seat at Europe's table.

I don't see what Europe brings us. I think for balance they need our natural resources more anything the other way; and I'm cool to do business. But their internal strife is not a place more Canadian blood should be spilled IMHO.

While I don't want to see the dissolution of NATO, I also understand for everything there is season...

I can accept that it may have run its course.

 

[ArmyRick]

I mostly agree we don't need or want to be part of the EU.

First trade, no matter how you put it, there is an ocean separating us from Europe, so goods fly or sail to and from, that is expensive, period. So trade there has its limits.

The USA, is separated by an imaginary line, like Trump or hate him (I hate him because he is mostly responsible for Liberals winning and he has a big mouth), the USA will remain our predominant trading partner. The sooner we get a deal, the better.

Next, EU bullies the hell out of its members on stuff like agriculture (I am sure others as well) and many of the "feel good, achieve nothing" regulations only leading to sever financial hardship on farmers and lessen food productivity. Keep EU European.

 

[Brad Sallows]

Are you motioning towards the French ? Lol

By nominal GDP, either of Germany, UK, France, or Italy outranks Russia. Theoretically, any of them could do it alone.

 

[GR66]

Maybe not for general war with Europe per se, but do not count out the bite and hold strategies it has used with Ukraine. The Baltics are very vulnerable to that as are Armenia, Moldova, and Serbia (The last two aren't NATO but NATO adjacent).

Post WW2 Soviet expansion had put significant ethnic Russian populations in these (and other former Warsaw block) countries. Hybrid warfare by way of disinformation and manipulation continues apace, and if not aggressively countered, could lead to erosion of non-Russian European interests.

This is not the time to take the eye off the ball. Don't think big war. Think hybrid war and what needs to be done to defeat it. And yes, the commitment of a flyover Canadian division for Latvia has a big role to play in that both as a deterrent and as a commitment that gives us a strong chip at the table.

I agree that Russia isn't going to go away and is unlikely to stop being a thorn in the West's side. As I noted, our Brigade in Latvia plays an important role in deterring Russia from a conventional military attack against the smaller NATO members along its border. It serves a political role by showing NATO's unity because Russia knows that if it attacks Latvia it won't be fighting Latvia alone...it will be all of NATO. Having a Division there rather than a Brigade won't change that calculus for Russia. Are they going to risk taking on all of NATO if Canada only has a Brigade there but won't dare to take on all of NATO if Canada has a Division there instead?

Hybrid threats are another thing all together. How are conventional troops in Latvia going to help against pro-Russian rallies by Ruso-Latvian civilians? Are we going to put down civil unrest on behalf of the Latvian government? Heck, if you have too large a foreign force there it could in itself cause discontent among the local population. Look at Okinawa as an example.

 

[McG]

no matter how you put it, there is an ocean separating us from Europe

 

[FJAG]

Having a Division there rather than a Brigade won't change that calculus for Russia. Are they going to risk taking on all of NATO if Canada only has a Brigade there but won't dare to take on all of NATO if Canada has a Division there instead?

My concept is a prepositioned, flyover division which could in fact have a smaller full-time presence in Latvia than we have now. It would simply grow for training events and in times of crisis. Practically speaking though, growing the planned defensive structure for the Baltics by two brigades would change the calculus for Russia - especially in Latvia.

Hybrid threats are another thing all together. How are conventional troops in Latvia going to help against pro-Russian rallies by Ruso-Latvian civilians?

The division has resources above and beyond those of a conventional brigade that can have roles in hybrid warfare. But fair enough, hybrid warfare goes well beyond the conventional. Additional, committed conventional forces provide the confidence needed to enable local authorities to invest and engage in counter-hybrid warfare activities.

 

[YZT580]

I guess where we differ is I just don't see why we need a chip or seat at Europe's table.

I don't see what Europe brings us. I think for balance they need our natural resources more anything the other way; and I'm cool to do business. But their internal strife is not a place more Canadian blood should be spilled IMHO.

While I don't want to see the dissolution of NATO, I also understand for everything there is season...

I can accept that it may have run its course.

Europe is NA's barbican guarding the eastern side of our moat. (the Atlantic)

 

[Halifax Tar]

Europe is NA's barbican guarding the eastern side of our moat. (the Atlantic)

I think this is a tired and outdated line, no offence meant. The Atlantic and Pacific aren't a moat. That's a silly equation.

They make it almost logistically impossible to project and sustain an invading force across.

And I only use the word almost because nothing is impossible.

 

[YZT580]

I think this is a tired and outdated line, no offence meant. The Atlantic and Pacific aren't a moat. That's a silly equation.

They make it almost logistically impossible to project and sustain an invading force across.

And I only use the word almost because nothing is impossible.

None taken. There are arguments both ways and I am certain that more knowledgeable minds than mine have gamed it out. But it is still better to make it as difficult as possible from as far away as possible. That never changes and a couple of subs in the Gulf of St. Lawrence proved that whilst it may no be possible to launch an invading force it is certainly possible to cause a lot of hurt close to home. Better to target them off Denmark than off Argentia.

 

[Altair]

Ideas of Russia sending columns of tanks rolling through the suwalki gap are so 1990s.

Ideas of Russia grabbing and holding Estonia while daring NATO to risk nuclear war to take it back are all too real.

All the while remembering that despite the Ukrainians being the most experienced army in the world when it come to drone warfare, Russia is the second most experienced and its not even close.

Saying Russia isnt a threat is to not recognize war has changed from 2022. Armored columns rushing to take back Estonia will be chewed to pieces in the open by drone forces. Infantry concentrations, chewed apart by drone forces. The Ukrainians have trained with NATO forces as opfor, they have wiped the floor with NATO forces.

Saying Russia isnt a threat is to completely misread the situation.

 

[Czech_pivo]

Ideas of Russia sending columns of tanks rolling through the suwalki gap are so 1990s.

Ideas of Russia grabbing and holding Estonia while daring NATO to risk nuclear war to take it back are all too real.

All the while remembering that despite the Ukrainians being the most experienced army in the world when it come to drone warfare, Russia is the second most experienced and its not even close.

Saying Russia isnt a threat is to not recognize war has changed from 2022. Armored columns rushing to take back Estonia will be chewed to pieces in the open by drone forces. Infantry concentrations, chewed apart by drone forces. The Ukrainians have trained with NATO forces as opfor, they have wiped the floor with NATO forces.

Saying Russia isnt a threat is to completely misread the situation.

If Russia made a play for Estonia and failed to take all of its northern coastline, they will have effectively landlocked their ports in St Petersburg. The Estonians would do their utmost to sink every Russian ship attempting to run along their coastline.

 

[Halifax Tar]

If Russia made a play for Estonia and failed to take all of its northern coastline, they will have effectively landlocked their ports in St Petersburg. The Estonians would do their utmost to sink every Russian ship attempting to run along their coastline.

Russia couldn't invade its own backyard right now. As I said previously, I would be more apt to predict a revolution than another invasion. But who knows maybe they are that stupid.

Interesting article:

Russia Tomorrow: Five scenarios for Russia's future

A new Atlantic Council report explores five paths that Russia future might take in its future. What forces will shape Russia’s future?

www.atlanticcouncil.org

 

[Altair]

If Russia made a play for Estonia and failed to take all of its northern coastline, they will have effectively landlocked their ports in St Petersburg. The Estonians would do their utmost to sink every Russian ship attempting to run along their coastline.

Putin is a riverboat gambler. He invaded Georgia. He invaded Crimea. He invaded the donbas. He launched a full invasion of Ukraine.

Are we to ignore a whole body of work showing hes more than capable of picking the worst option and going full send?

Sure, he might fail. But he's perfectly capable of making the attempt.

And if he succeeds what does NATO do? We have already shown we have no idea how to fight drone warfare.

 

[GR66]

Ideas of Russia grabbing and holding Estonia while daring NATO to risk nuclear war to take it back are all too real.

All the while remembering that despite the Ukrainians being the most experienced army in the world when it come to drone warfare, Russia is the second most experienced and its not even close.

Saying Russia isnt a threat is to not recognize war has changed from 2022. Armored columns rushing to take back Estonia will be chewed to pieces in the open by drone forces. Infantry concentrations, chewed apart by drone forces. The Ukrainians have trained with NATO forces as opfor, they have wiped the floor with NATO forces.

Saying Russia isnt a threat is to completely misread the situation.

Russia completely misread Ukraine. They thought they would roll over them in a few days and the payoff would be huge. Going to war with NATO would be a different story. They've got no end point in the West. They're not going to drive to the Atlantic. Could they possibly take the Baltic States? Maybe...a BIG maybe...but what is the endpoint?

The Baltics don't give them a significant strategic advantage or access to significant resources. What it would give them is a loss of access to both the Baltic and the Black Sea and strikes by NATO on key economic infrastructure that Ukraine could only dream of being able to do. Their shipping and trade would be blockaded. They would be forced to defend not only their entire Western borders with NATO (which are longer now with Finland in NATO) but also their entire coastline from NATO subs.

Putin is aggressive and opportunistic, but he's not an idiot. The last thing he wants is open conflict with NATO. He will pick away at NATO with actions short of direct warfare and will continue to try and drive political wedges between NATO members to create opportunities but I am very confident that barring some dramatic political shifts he will not risk direct war against NATO.

 

[Altair]

Putin is aggressive and opportunistic, but he's not an idiot. The last thing he wants is open conflict with NATO. He will pick away at NATO with actions short of direct warfare and will continue to try and drive political wedges between NATO members to create opportunities but I am very confident that barring some dramatic political shifts he will not risk direct war against NATO.

Putin is certainly an idiot.

And he doesn't give a damn about the Russian economy, otherwise tariffs would have caused him to course correct.

And if he does go to warn against NATO, what does NATO do?

If Russia sitting on the Baltic's what does NATO do?

Roll tanks?

 

[GR66]

Putin is certainly an idiot.

And he doesn't give a damn about the Russian economy, otherwise tariffs would have caused him to course correct.

And if he does go to warn against NATO, what does NATO do?

If Russia sitting on the Baltic's what does NATO do?

Roll tanks?

Well we already have tanks there (including Canadian tanks) so yes they will roll. The Baltic will be closed to them as will the Black Sea. Likely every refinery and major oil pipeline will be targeted by NATO crippling their economy. NATO navies will blockade their coastline. An economic embargo...a real one not like the sieve-like one currently underway...will stifle their trade.

Putin may not give a damn about the Russian economy but when Russians are cold and hungry in the dark he'll care about his skin.

 

[YZT580]

My concept is a prepositioned, flyover division which could in fact have a smaller full-time presence in Latvia than we have now. It would simply grow for training events and in times of crisis. Practically speaking though, growing the planned defensive structure for the Baltics by two brigades would change the calculus for Russia - especially in Latvia.

The division has resources above and beyond those of a conventional brigade that can have roles in hybrid warfare. But fair enough, hybrid warfare goes well beyond the conventional. Additional, committed conventional forces provide the confidence needed to enable local authorities to invest and engage in counter-hybrid warfare activities.

I think we tried that and it didn't work. We were supposed to have a pre-positioned tank regiment in Norway but it didn't take long for those tanks to be brought home again if they ever did get to Oslo. That was Pierre's big idea

 

[daftandbarmy]

I think we tried that and it didn't work. We were supposed to have a pre-positioned tank regiment in Norway but it didn't take long for those tanks to be brought home again if they ever did get to Oslo. That was Pierre's big idea

The USMC have had about a Brigade of gear, allegedly, stationed in Norway since 1982...

Marine Corps Prepositioning Program-Norway - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[FJAG]

I think we tried that and it didn't work. We were supposed to have a pre-positioned tank regiment in Norway but it didn't take long for those tanks to be brought home again if they ever did get to Oslo. That was Pierre's big idea

I don't think it was ever a tank regiment. We did have some AMF(L) prepositioned equipment in Norway. I think everything changed with respect to Norway when we transferred our focus to putting 5 GMBC in as a reinforcement in central Europe with 1 Div and 4 CMBG.

 

[daftandbarmy]

I don't think it was ever a tank regiment. We did have some AMF(L) prepositioned equipment in Norway. I think everything changed with respect to Norway when we transferred our focus to putting 5 GMBC in as a reinforcement in central Europe with 1 Div and 4 CMBG.

I was there in Bardufoss in the winter of '86 when they cancelled the CAST Brigade's involvement in the whole Norway thing.

Being Canadian, can confirm much piss was taken