2026 US-Denmark Tensions/End of NATO

[Altair]

Yes.

Combined GDP of just Germany, UK, France, Italy, and Canada is somewhere above $13T. Russia a bit over $2T.

Canada has a bigger GDP than Russia. Do you think Canada can beat Russia, one on one?

GDP matters, yes. Military capabilities matter more.

A NATO-Russia war wouldn't be decided by drone swarms in 6 weeks. Russia caught Ukraine off balance and couldn't even manage that.

Russia started the war largely conventional. So did Ukrainian. The next war won't be the Russians rushing tanks to the front like in 2022.

If assuming the US might stay completely out of a defensive NATO war against Russia is a necessary condition of a Russia-can-win-this argument, the argument is worthless.

Read the title of the thread. Its about the end of the USA in NATO. You want to wargame a situation of the USA in NATO versus Russia, go make your own thread.

 

[Brad Sallows]

Canada has a bigger GDP than Russia. Do you think Canada can beat Russia, one on one?

Yes. Russia could establish one or more lodgements in Canada, but not stay to any effect. It's irrelevant to what we're discussing though, which is a Russia war against NATO in Europe, presumably based primarily on an invasion of Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia.

GDP matters, yes. Military capabilities matter more.

GDP matters a lot more.

Read the title of the thread. Its about the end of the USA in NATO. You want to wargame a situation of the USA in NATO versus Russia, go make your own thread.

The same applies to red herrings based on Russia vs Canada. But, again, your point is irrelevant. I claim European NATO can defeat Russia, even if a few of the lukewarm NATO members decline to participate.

 

[Altair]

Yes. Russia could establish one or more lodgements in Canada, but not stay to any effect. It's irrelevant to what we're discussing though, which is a Russia war against NATO in Europe, presumably based primarily on an invasion of Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia.

I dont see a scenario where the Canadian forces go head to head versus Russia alone and comes out on top.

GDP matters a lot more.

If GDP mattered Russia would have crushed Ukraine by now.

South Korea would crush north Korea

India would crush Pakistan

GDP matters, but only in terms of how much of that gdp is dedicated to the military

And in a short war, there isnt enough time to reorientated the economy from civilian to wartime

The same applies to red herrings based on Russia vs Canada. But, again, your point is irrelevant. I claim European NATO can defeat Russia, even if a few of the lukewarm NATO members decline to participate.

If the entire thread is a red herring, then maybe go somewhere else?

I don't know what else to tell ya.

 

[Halifax Tar]

NATO vs Russia wouldn't be decided by drones.

NATO vs Russia would be decided by geography and economics. Russia is fighting Ukraine along the eastern border of Ukraine from, roughly, Belarus to the Sea of Azov.

If Russia picks a fight with NATO, the front line on land alone would extend from, roughly, Murmansk to Baku. Russia would have to cover all of that. I doubt it has massive reserves in hand for that, so it would have to dilute whatever it has brought to bear against Ukraine to cover that exciting new distance. Ukraine would not of course be diluting itself to cover that; NATO would bring fresh forces to cover all of that.

We could suppose Russia would not do that until it has settled with Ukraine. We could also suppose that shortly after Russia is at war with NATO, Ukraine would resume hostilities to recover lost territories and invite NATO to use its territory for operations.

And of course it would be open season on all of Russia's major military assets, everywhere.

You forget the sea lanes. Imagine if all of the sudden Russia's ghost fleet/tankers started sinking...

An unrestricted maritime conflict VS NATO, or even just the EU, would cripple Russia.

 

[Brad Sallows]

I dont see a scenario where the Canadian forces go head to head versus Russia alone and comes out on top.

Invading across oceans is hard. It takes a surprisingly large number of ships to mount and sustain a multi-divisional cross-ocean invasion, and usually requires near air supremacy, which is difficult to attain without land-based air cover.

If GDP mattered Russia would have crushed Ukraine by now.

GDP matters when the effort is paramount, which Russia vs NATO would be. Russia has chosen to fight Ukraine without going anywhere near the mattresses. Lots of conflicts are fought with some restraint on one side and total commitment on the other (underdog).

And in a short war, there isnt enough time to reorientated the economy from civilian to wartime

It won't be that short. If Russia ever moves against NATO, that will be the first and last Russia vs NATO fight.

 

[Halifax Tar]

Invading across oceans is hard. It takes a surprisingly large number of ships to mount and sustain a multi-divisional cross-ocean invasion, and usually requires near air supremacy, which is difficult to attain without land-based air cover.

Don't forget your opposition, they also get a say. And crossing an ocean is essentially crossing one big beaten ground, that you cant get cover in and cant run away on.

If people think crossing the English Channel was hard... The Pacific and Atlantic, but especially the Pacific, is magnitudes more difficult. Especially going west to east.

 

[Brad Sallows]

You forget the sea lanes. Imagine if all of the sudden Russia's ghost fleet/tankers started sinking...

An unrestricted maritime conflict VS NATO, or even just the EU, would cripple Russia.

Not forgotten; I just don't think I need to add that brick to the pile to make my argument. Russia would lose all maritime trade through its Baltic Sea and Black Sea ports irrespective of NATO's naval strength. European NATO maritime trade would also be at risk, depending on how long Russia's submarine force lasts. There wouldn't be any air gaps in the North Atlantic.

 

[Altair]

Invading across oceans is hard. It takes a surprisingly large number of ships to mount and sustain a multi-divisional cross-ocean invasion, and usually requires near air supremacy, which is difficult to attain without land-based air cover.

Okay, we have a bigger GDP, so we go on the offensive versus Russia. We win?

GDP matters when the effort is paramount, which Russia vs NATO would be. Russia has chosen to fight Ukraine without going anywhere near the mattresses. Lots of conflicts are fought with some restraint on one side and total commitment on the other (underdog).

I imagine the same would be true of Russia? And if they are narrow in scope, Estonia lets say, you foresee total war over Estonia? Especially if Russia signals that strikes on their homeland will escalate to a nuclear response?

It won't be that short. If Russia ever moves against NATO, that will be the first and last Russia vs NATO fight.

I dont see a European Napoleon willing to go to Moscow.

 

[Brad Sallows]

Okay, we have a bigger GDP, so we go on the offensive versus Russia. We win?

Why would Canada try to fight a land war in Asia? Absurd. I have no interest in that contingency.

I imagine the same would be true of Russia? And if they are narrow in scope, Estonia lets say, you foresee total war over Estonia? Especially if Russia signals that strikes on their homeland will escalate to a nuclear response?

Either European NATO respects every member, or it might as well admit that it isn't really an alliance and every member is at risk of being defeated in detail in a one-on-one. That would be unacceptable to the states most at risk; they at least are likely to stick together, which means Poland is in it. And, it isn't just them vs Russia. It's them backed by Ukrainian advice and expertise.

Russia could try to blackmail NATO, but hasn't even bothered to try to play that card against Ukraine. What would be the limit? No strikes in Russia? No strikes against Russian maritime trade? No strikes against Russian forces in NATO territory? No involvement by anyone except the invaded country?

I dont see a European Napoleon willing to go to Moscow.

Don't need to. It's a defensive war. All that's needed is to prevent incursions and push back the ones that happen, while squeezing the Russian economy until the Russian people strangle their own government with its entrails.

And Russia can't risk weakening itself to the point that China makes a grab.

 

[Altair]

Why would Canada try to fight a land war in Asia? Absurd. I have no interest in that contingency.

Again, if its all about GDP Canada should win. But its not all about GDP, is it?

Either European NATO respects every member, or it might as well admit that it isn't really an alliance and every member is at risk of being defeated in detail in a one-on-one. That would be unacceptable to the states most at risk; they at least are likely to stick together, which means Poland is in it. And, it isn't just them vs Russia. It's them backed by Ukrainian advice and expertise.

We owe a debt to Ukraine. They are like a kicked dog that still loves us despite all the neglect we have delivered them.

For the record, i do think European allies and Canada beats Russia with the USA on the sidelines. I just think that without ramping up drone warfare its going to be a long and painful path to said victory. Because of this its foolish to discount Russia as a geopolitical rival. They are the second most powerful nation in the world in terms of drone lethality.

Russia could try to blackmail NATO, but hasn't even bothered to try to play that card against Ukraine. What would be the limit? No strikes in Russia? No strikes against Russian maritime trade? No strikes against Russian forces in NATO territory? No involvement by anyone except the invaded country?

Putin is a madman and would need to be a manman to invade Ukraine... I mean NATO. What i do know is the one real advantage he has is nuclear deterrence and if the USA is on the sidelines, do France and the UK want things to go nuclear?

Don't need to. It's a defensive war. All that's needed is to prevent incursions and push back the ones that happen, while squeezing the Russian economy until the Russian people strangle their own government with its entrails.

Never underestimate the Russian peoples tolerance for suffering.

And Russia can't risk weakening itself to the point that China makes a grab.

Considering that China wants Taiwan more than it ever wants backwater Russia, a distracted NATO and a Russia ever more reliant on China plays right into their hands