2026 Wildfire Season

[daftandbarmy]

Professional input on the forest management side of things here:

The pulp markets that dominated much of the 1900's are gone. Actual usage is down and you're fighting against south American plantations that have three huge advantages:
1) tree rotation cycles of 7-10 years instead of 70-100.
2) very cheap labour compared to North America/Europe
3) many have their own docks so shipping finished product is a breeze.

On the lumber front producers are doing okay but you also run into a couple of big issues:

• generally as you move north into the boreal the tree size reduces making it tougher to get sawlogs suitable for larger lumber. You don't need much of a tree to make a poor quality 2x4 but if you want to make a 2x6 it's something very different.
• building mills further away from markets just increases your cost. You could make the crown stumpage free and building a mill in a place like Moose Factory ONT will still face losses due to transport costs when compared to a mill in the SE states
• Canada, despite the mill closures around the country, still produces way more wood than it consumes.
• Much of the world doesn't build with wood. Concreate is more common
• Top end prime lumber has a market worldwide....but you have lots more of poorer quality lumber. Home Depot lumber is not top end product but that's what we're used to as most have never seen a J-grade or #1 board.

On the wildfire front:

• huge fires are major resource sinks.
• prescribed burns can be effective...but doing large scale ones can be extremely challenging. Ambition is a good thing until you start a prescribe burn and it "over achieves"
• Wildland Urban Interface fires are much more common in part due to population expansion but also areas that haven't burn. Much more needs to be done on building code, zoning and insurance.
• While I can train a rookie firefighter into a useful member in a few weeks....the supervision and higher command roles are much tougher. It's the difference between a bunch of Private recruits and Senior Officers...but there's no shortcuts. Just experience and time to develop.
• Water bombers are sexy for images but are often useless without ground support
• Heavy equipment can be a huge multiplier...but needs to access before it can create fire access. And much of the north doesn't have it.
• Even if you can detect a new start immediately it takes time to have the responding force arrive. And many don't realize how far away/how long it takes to travel 100km or more to a new start. This problem is even greater in the north with fewer communities and bases to work out of

Will try to think over solutions and positive direction changes in the next few days depending on fire situation.

Nice! I knew you'd be along to keep us in check.

Muskeg is a thing too, as I understand it.

Logging on muskeg means 'winter logging only', when it's frozen, which cuts down your annual production levels and increases costs.

 

[Humphrey Bogart]

Professional input on the forest management side of things here:

The pulp markets that dominated much of the 1900's are gone. Actual usage is down and you're fighting against south American plantations that have three huge advantages:
1) tree rotation cycles of 7-10 years instead of 70-100.
2) very cheap labour compared to North America/Europe
3) many have their own docks so shipping finished product is a breeze.

On the lumber front producers are doing okay but you also run into a couple of big issues:

• generally as you move north into the boreal the tree size reduces making it tougher to get sawlogs suitable for larger lumber. You don't need much of a tree to make a poor quality 2x4 but if you want to make a 2x6 it's something very different.
• building mills further away from markets just increases your cost. You could make the crown stumpage free and building a mill in a place like Moose Factory ONT will still face losses due to transport costs when compared to a mill in the SE states
• Canada, despite the mill closures around the country, still produces way more wood than it consumes.
• Much of the world doesn't build with wood. Concreate is more common
• Top end prime lumber has a market worldwide....but you have lots more of poorer quality lumber. Home Depot lumber is not top end product but that's what we're used to as most have never seen a J-grade or #1 board.

On the wildfire front:

• huge fires are major resource sinks.
• prescribed burns can be effective...but doing large scale ones can be extremely challenging. Ambition is a good thing until you start a prescribe burn and it "over achieves"
• Wildland Urban Interface fires are much more common in part due to population expansion but also areas that haven't burn. Much more needs to be done on building code, zoning and insurance.
• While I can train a rookie firefighter into a useful member in a few weeks....the supervision and higher command roles are much tougher. It's the difference between a bunch of Private recruits and Senior Officers...but there's no shortcuts. Just experience and time to develop.
• Water bombers are sexy for images but are often useless without ground support
• Heavy equipment can be a huge multiplier...but needs to access before it can create fire access. And much of the north doesn't have it.
• Even if you can detect a new start immediately it takes time to have the responding force arrive. And many don't realize how far away/how long it takes to travel 100km or more to a new start. This problem is even greater in the north with fewer communities and bases to work out of

Will try to think over solutions and positive direction changes in the next few days depending on fire situation.

The Govt doesn't have the heavy equipment. The private sector has mountains of it. The deployment time for this equipment is measured in hours...

It's impressive seeing it put in to action. It's amazing what buckets of can do when it's thrown at a problem.

 

[The Bread Guy]

Lack of innovation is also a huge issue. It's back to the old productivity issue. Canadians aren't very productive..

Trying to convince Canadians to invest in cutting edge technology in traditional industries is like trying to pull teeth. I ship dozens of chip cars weekly..... I watched them let woodchips sit out in the rain, absorb moisture, which greatly increases the weight of the product being transported....

They then have to pay to dry the product at final destination which greatly increases the cost and reduces profit margins... meanwhile Mills in Germany are using mechanical compression to squeeze the water and moisture out of their wastage products and are able to transport 50% more volume per truck load and receive a higher price for their product at the buyer destination because it's higher quality and doesn't need to use nearly as much energy to be dried..

Can’t disagree with resistance to some change being a non-zero factor, for sure. That said, the softwood tariff has been huge and no changes or hope of change doesn’t make investors more confident.

 

[Halifax Tar]

Nice! I knew you'd be along to keep us in check.

Muskeg is a thing too, as I understand it.

Logging on muskeg means 'winter logging only', when it's frozen, which cuts down your annual production levels and increases costs.

I cant imagine the bugs while logging on the muskeg...

 

[McG]

I think comments from POTUS should awaken everyone to the fact ...

He's not a rational actor. He is a self-aggrandizing bully who finds positive reinforcement in populist rage baiting and has a hate on for Canada. If it wasn't smoke, he would have found some other reason to bluster and revisit his global trade war upon us. There is certainly no good reason to appease his nonsense because it is nonsense, because he will renege on any agreement reached, and because he will find a new excuse to revisit the same threats upon us tomorrow.

A rail line or a road creates a natural fire break.

Crown fires are not stopped by roads or rail lines. Crown fires will spot across a river or lake that is 800+ meters wide.
Even if it stays below the canopy, a 20+ km frontage will find a place to cross a forestry road.

The Americans will buy the product at a premium...

Because the guy who wants to tariff away the fires also likes to tariff lumber. He's working against his espoused own cause.

 

[Humphrey Bogart]

I cant imagine the bugs while logging on the muskeg...

The bugs up here are atrocious... my personal favorite are the spruce beetles!



These little bastards eat bark but occasionally think your limbs are a piece of bark and take a chomp! They terrorized my wife for two years!

 

[Halifax Tar]

The bugs up here are atrocious... my personal favorite are the spruce beetles!

View attachment 101385

These little bastards eat bark but occasionally think your limbs are a piece of bark and take a chomp! They terrorized my wife for two years!

Thanks, i'll stick to sharks and ticks lol

 

[foresterab]

Lack of innovation is also a huge issue. It's back to the old productivity issue. Canadians aren't very productive..

Trying to convince Canadians to invest in cutting edge technology in traditional industries is like trying to pull teeth. I ship dozens of chip cars weekly..... I watched them let woodchips sit out in the rain, absorb moisture, which greatly increases the weight of the product being transported....

They then have to pay to dry the product at final destination which greatly increases the cost and reduces profit margins... meanwhile Mills in Germany are using mechanical compression to squeeze the water and moisture out of their wastage products and are able to transport 50% more volume per truck load and receive a higher price for their product at the buyer destination because it's higher quality and doesn't need to use nearly as much energy to be dried..

That has to be for the wood pellet market in Europe? Not sure what else they would ship wood chips out as...but also frustrates me as a plant to create a dried, dense wood pellet is an possible employer here in Canada. There are some but not many overall.

Mechanical compression would damage the wood fiber if it was chips for wood. Same with OSB.

Ironically so many of the Canadian mills have been upgraded that the employment numbers have been dropping for years despite same production. Hew saws vs. circular head rigs, chips vs. slabs, scanner technology and automation. Many of these lessons are now being transferred around the world which makes some of the traditionally less efficient mills elsewhere much more effective competition compounding the issue.

 

[SeaKingTacco]

Foresterab-

I really appreciate you adding your knowledge base to this thread. Very informative!

 

[dapaterson]

Canadian technical innovation in the forest products sector has a long history. There are still Canadian firms servicing and producing equipment and matériel for the paper industry, for example, but most have pivoted to overseas sales.

The days of Montréal being taken over by the paper industry the last week of January for their trade show are long gone, though.

 

[The Bread Guy]

That has to be for the wood pellet market in Europe? Not sure what else they would ship wood chips out as...but also frustrates me as a plant to create a dried, dense wood pellet is an possible employer here in Canada. There are some but not many overall.

Fun fact about wood pellets from the 807 area code, feeding into the "how change is managed well or not" narrative.

Around 2015, Ontario converted a power generation plant in Thunder Bay from coal to wood pellets.

And where did they have to get the wood pellets? Norway.

That was before it was shut down, then demolished.

More here:

Thunder Bay Generating Station - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[foresterab]

Nice! I knew you'd be along to keep us in check.

Muskeg is a thing too, as I understand it.

Logging on muskeg means 'winter logging only', when it's frozen, which cuts down your annual production levels and increases costs.

It's not so bad if you have reliable weather and it's not bitter cold.

Trying to log at -40 is very hard on the equipment...like any other gear outside. At cold but not bitter cold it can sometimes actually speed up logging as things like branches snap off easier with processors and logs slide easier with skidders....

But when you're trying to take a full years harvest off in a few months you have major challenges with:

• labour force. You're now a seasonal employer with challenges to find enough folks at key times
• weather. One warm spell can cause chaos. Especially if the roads don't freeze in
• occurred costs (paying loggers for wood delivered) vs. loss of wood quality due to age vs. time to produce product and make money. Was told years ago $1/m3 per month in cost for stored wood...no idea how true it is. If your mill consumes a million m3/year it adds up quick
• equipment costing is much higher due to short season = higher per hr rates needed to offset short working window.

Unfortunately muskeg - which is a form of wetland - often has poor growing sites and so not only are you dealing with the fun of access but you're also dealing with often poor form and poorer quality trees.

 

[foresterab]

Fun fact about wood pellets from the 807 area code, feeding into the "how change is managed well or not" narrative.

Around 2015, Ontario converted a power generation plant in Thunder Bay from coal to wood pellets.

And where did they have to get the wood pellets? Norway.

That was before it was shut down, then demolished.

More here:

Thunder Bay Generating Station - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Sigh...that doesn't surprise me. Despite pellet plants in BC and Alberta.

Ironically the hydro dam at Kakabecca Falls - just outside of Thunder Bay - was built over a century ago for powering the pulp mill. So there are some successes as well.

 

[Humphrey Bogart]

That has to be for the wood pellet market in Europe? Not sure what else they would ship wood chips out as...but also frustrates me as a plant to create a dried, dense wood pellet is an possible employer here in Canada. There are some but not many overall.

Correct. Or BBQ briquettes. It's a largely untapped market here.

Die Hackschnitzelquetsche

Die Hackschnitzelquetsche: Eine Walzenpresse für die mechanische Trocknung von Hackschnitzeln im industriellen Dauerbetrieb

www.hackschnitzelquetsche.de

Fun fact about wood pellets from the 807 area code, feeding into the "how change is managed well or not" narrative.

Around 2015, Ontario converted a power generation plant in Thunder Bay from coal to wood pellets.

And where did they have to get the wood pellets? Norway.

That was before it was shut down, then demolished.

More here:

Thunder Bay Generating Station - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

And now their latest plan is to turn the site into a Lithium Refinery, one of four being proposed for the area. There has been a big sign outside the site for about a year or two now but not much else!

Reminds me of this tbh:

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brunswick/failed-solar-plant-to-cost-taxpayers-11m-1.990606

 

[Humphrey Bogart]

I actually think the best way to grift off the Govt, Provincial or Federal in Canada, is to attach any sort of Green metric or slogan with an environmental narrative to it...

Solar/Wind/Carbon Neutral/Alternative/Green.... then slap Energy on the title and voila... you've got access to endless amounts of Govt grants to pay yourself for a few years with.

 

[YZT580]

I cant imagine the bugs while logging on the muskeg...

And the black flies, the little black flies
Always the black fly, no matter where you go
I'll die with the black fly a-picking my bones
In north on-tar-i-o-i-o, in north on-tar-i-o

It was black fly, black fly everywhere
A-crawlin' in your whiskers, a-crawlin' in your hair
A-swimmin' in the soup, and a'swimmin in the tea
Oh the devil take the black fly and let me be

 

[foresterab]

And the black flies, the little black flies
Always the black fly, no matter where you go
I'll die with the black fly a-picking my bones
In north on-tar-i-o-i-o, in north on-tar-i-o

It was black fly, black fly everywhere
A-crawlin' in your whiskers, a-crawlin' in your hair
A-swimmin' in the soup, and a'swimmin in the tea
Oh the devil take the black fly and let me be

And the mozzies...
and the horse flies...
and the sawyer beetles if there's burns/dead wood around.

Before you're walking shin deep in loon s#$@ muck, wet and grumpy...

Oh how I love muskeg walks. At least normally the swamp doesn't ripple from floating over water...that gets exciting fast.

 

[foresterab]

What do you propose to do about the forest fires that is actually within current human technology?

Community - including those communities who don't think of wildfire risk a lot such as Toronto, Calgary etc.

• Get serious about development permits and landscaping. Conifers make for poor landscape choices due to the way they can shower embers. Tree free areas immediately around trees. Note this also helps with some of the issues with wind damage if you dont' have tree limbs over the house.
• Materials used. While I love the look of a cedar shake roof...that in the middle of forest is not a good combination for roofs. Asphalt shingles aren't much better. If I get a insurance break for having a backflow preventer on the sewage line why not one for a less flammable roof.
• Adopt the Red River Valley policy. If you're impacted by a fire once...there may be assistance but only if you build to X standard. Rebuild what was there before and no assistance is available. Hence why homes in the Red River valley are on build up foundations above the anticipated flood level.
• Access. If you have a large subdivision/industrial site with a single exit start building alternatives. Doesn't have to be fancy just useable if there is an issue on the primary access route.
• Clear the debris out of the river valley/bike paths/surrounding forest around the town. If you can reduce both the amount of fuel and the ladder type fuels that will help drive crown fire you have much better chances of being able to deal with surface fire than crown fire.
• Large critical infrastructure should be designed in such a way that either pumps can very quickly be added or better yet have back up water tanks beside them. Tough to run on town water if power is out... Large defensible spaces are needed around these...but they could also double as soccer fields, lawns, etc.

Nationally

• I want to see a reliable communications method - cell towers work with back up generators - and at least at each community administration center a satellite back up. Lack of communications has hampered both response and evacuations
• Continue the work of some of the national project proposals to try to link isolated communities with the country. Can both military value but also economic development opportunities created.
• Creation of a seasonal battalion of reservists? Rangers? To be determined. Picturing 20 man platoons, 100 man companies. 4x4 pick up and basic hand tools/chainsaws hired for summer months - May-Aug and possible a short term July-Aug option where basic fire fighting training is done, ICS command and they remain a national asset. When not deployed they move between communities doing wildfire, flood and hurricane risk reduction work focusing upon federal lands and remote communities.
• Expansion of the RCAF by at least one full squadron of transports. C-130 might have more military value but Dash 8-Q400 would also work. For building up both pilot training hours and expansion
• Increased work with NGO's like Red Cross, Team Rubicon, CANTASK #... trained uniformed bodies help take the pressure out of community evacuations.
• Change of legislation to support volunteer fire fighters, emergency responders (see Team Rubicon above for example), CAF reservists on job protection. Be generous on employer support (claim wages back etc).
• Create a medal for those serving on declared emergencies in Canada. A medal for some is nothing...but others it's huge. Australia has a good working example of this with most of their fires not eligible.
• expansion of airstrips - especially in the north - for larger planes. Even small bush plane strips can form great heli-bases.
• Promotion of both pellet mills and power plants based off of wood products. This becomes critical if you have low value, small diameter trees but are fine for pellets. Pellets burn well, the power or heating plant can be scaled from single building to community level, and they don't have the same issues as products such as diesel in case of spills.
• Continue the ongoing investment into tools such as the Fire Detection Satellite system so that more passes occur.

Landscape wide:

• I want to see more fire introduced - especially around communities - earlier. This includes all parks and protected areas as failing to address them creates a situation that nature loves. Parks Canada has many examples of this ranging from Jasper/Banff to smaller ones out east like Point Pelee, ON. There is a growing legal liability issue - creeping in from the US - that also needs to be looked at.
• If conditions/risk are so high that burning is not an option then logging needs to be looked at more. Not clear cutting but patch logging/selective logging to keep both the aesthetic values while reducing risk.
• We need to look at some forest management practices especially near high value areas. Herbicide use, reforestation species, end goal of management.

Training:

• Continue the work of CIFFC on standardizing terminology and training courses. Drives me nuts when Ontario uses Not Under Control instead of Being Held like the rest of the province.
• work on online courses. Some work has been done but this needs to be expanded.
• Would love to see a training portal that shows deployment experience, training courses, certification levels. Include structural fire departments on this, CAF on OP LENTUS etc.

There's more but got the word I'm deploying so need to change focus and prepare for the upcoming challange.
foresterab

 

[Cloud Cover]

Good luck and stay safe!