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2026 Wildfire Season

Professional input on the forest management side of things here:

The pulp markets that dominated much of the 1900's are gone. Actual usage is down and you're fighting against south American plantations that have three huge advantages:
1) tree rotation cycles of 7-10 years instead of 70-100.
2) very cheap labour compared to North America/Europe
3) many have their own docks so shipping finished product is a breeze.

On the lumber front producers are doing okay but you also run into a couple of big issues:
  • generally as you move north into the boreal the tree size reduces making it tougher to get sawlogs suitable for larger lumber. You don't need much of a tree to make a poor quality 2x4 but if you want to make a 2x6 it's something very different.
  • building mills further away from markets just increases your cost. You could make the crown stumpage free and building a mill in a place like Moose Factory ONT will still face losses due to transport costs when compared to a mill in the SE states
  • Canada, despite the mill closures around the country, still produces way more wood than it consumes.
  • Much of the world doesn't build with wood. Concreate is more common
  • Top end prime lumber has a market worldwide....but you have lots more of poorer quality lumber. Home Depot lumber is not top end product but that's what we're used to as most have never seen a J-grade or #1 board.

On the wildfire front:
  • huge fires are major resource sinks.
  • prescribed burns can be effective...but doing large scale ones can be extremely challenging. Ambition is a good thing until you start a prescribe burn and it "over achieves"
  • Wildland Urban Interface fires are much more common in part due to population expansion but also areas that haven't burn. Much more needs to be done on building code, zoning and insurance.
  • While I can train a rookie firefighter into a useful member in a few weeks....the supervision and higher command roles are much tougher. It's the difference between a bunch of Private recruits and Senior Officers...but there's no shortcuts. Just experience and time to develop.
  • Water bombers are sexy for images but are often useless without ground support
  • Heavy equipment can be a huge multiplier...but needs to access before it can create fire access. And much of the north doesn't have it.
  • Even if you can detect a new start immediately it takes time to have the responding force arrive. And many don't realize how far away/how long it takes to travel 100km or more to a new start. This problem is even greater in the north with fewer communities and bases to work out of


Will try to think over solutions and positive direction changes in the next few days depending on fire situation.

Nice! I knew you'd be along to keep us in check.

Muskeg is a thing too, as I understand it.

Logging on muskeg means 'winter logging only', when it's frozen, which cuts down your annual production levels and increases costs.
 
Professional input on the forest management side of things here:

The pulp markets that dominated much of the 1900's are gone. Actual usage is down and you're fighting against south American plantations that have three huge advantages:
1) tree rotation cycles of 7-10 years instead of 70-100.
2) very cheap labour compared to North America/Europe
3) many have their own docks so shipping finished product is a breeze.

On the lumber front producers are doing okay but you also run into a couple of big issues:
  • generally as you move north into the boreal the tree size reduces making it tougher to get sawlogs suitable for larger lumber. You don't need much of a tree to make a poor quality 2x4 but if you want to make a 2x6 it's something very different.
  • building mills further away from markets just increases your cost. You could make the crown stumpage free and building a mill in a place like Moose Factory ONT will still face losses due to transport costs when compared to a mill in the SE states
  • Canada, despite the mill closures around the country, still produces way more wood than it consumes.
  • Much of the world doesn't build with wood. Concreate is more common
  • Top end prime lumber has a market worldwide....but you have lots more of poorer quality lumber. Home Depot lumber is not top end product but that's what we're used to as most have never seen a J-grade or #1 board.

On the wildfire front:
  • huge fires are major resource sinks.
  • prescribed burns can be effective...but doing large scale ones can be extremely challenging. Ambition is a good thing until you start a prescribe burn and it "over achieves"
  • Wildland Urban Interface fires are much more common in part due to population expansion but also areas that haven't burn. Much more needs to be done on building code, zoning and insurance.
  • While I can train a rookie firefighter into a useful member in a few weeks....the supervision and higher command roles are much tougher. It's the difference between a bunch of Private recruits and Senior Officers...but there's no shortcuts. Just experience and time to develop.
  • Water bombers are sexy for images but are often useless without ground support
  • Heavy equipment can be a huge multiplier...but needs to access before it can create fire access. And much of the north doesn't have it.
  • Even if you can detect a new start immediately it takes time to have the responding force arrive. And many don't realize how far away/how long it takes to travel 100km or more to a new start. This problem is even greater in the north with fewer communities and bases to work out of


Will try to think over solutions and positive direction changes in the next few days depending on fire situation.
The Govt doesn't have the heavy equipment. The private sector has mountains of it. The deployment time for this equipment is measured in hours...

It's impressive seeing it put in to action. It's amazing what buckets of 💰 can do when it's thrown at a problem.
 
Lack of innovation is also a huge issue. It's back to the old productivity issue. Canadians aren't very productive..

Trying to convince Canadians to invest in cutting edge technology in traditional industries is like trying to pull teeth. I ship dozens of chip cars weekly..... I watched them let woodchips sit out in the rain, absorb moisture, which greatly increases the weight of the product being transported....

They then have to pay to dry the product at final destination which greatly increases the cost and reduces profit margins... meanwhile Mills in Germany are using mechanical compression to squeeze the water and moisture out of their wastage products and are able to transport 50% more volume per truck load and receive a higher price for their product at the buyer destination because it's higher quality and doesn't need to use nearly as much energy to be dried..
Can’t disagree with resistance to some change being a non-zero factor, for sure. That said, the softwood tariff has been huge and no changes or hope of change doesn’t make investors more confident.
 
Nice! I knew you'd be along to keep us in check.

Muskeg is a thing too, as I understand it.

Logging on muskeg means 'winter logging only', when it's frozen, which cuts down your annual production levels and increases costs.

I cant imagine the bugs while logging on the muskeg...
 
I think comments from POTUS should awaken everyone to the fact ...
He's not a rational actor. He is a self-aggrandizing bully who finds positive reinforcement in populist rage baiting and has a hate on for Canada. If it wasn't smoke, he would have found some other reason to bluster and revisit his global trade war upon us. There is certainly no good reason to appease his nonsense because it is nonsense, because he will renege on any agreement reached, and because he will find a new excuse to revisit the same threats upon us tomorrow.

A rail line or a road creates a natural fire break.
Crown fires are not stopped by roads or rail lines. Crown fires will spot across a river or lake that is 800+ meters wide.
Even if it stays below the canopy, a 20+ km frontage will find a place to cross a forestry road.

The Americans will buy the product at a premium...
Because the guy who wants to tariff away the fires also likes to tariff lumber. He's working against his espoused own cause.
 
Lack of innovation is also a huge issue. It's back to the old productivity issue. Canadians aren't very productive..

Trying to convince Canadians to invest in cutting edge technology in traditional industries is like trying to pull teeth. I ship dozens of chip cars weekly..... I watched them let woodchips sit out in the rain, absorb moisture, which greatly increases the weight of the product being transported....

They then have to pay to dry the product at final destination which greatly increases the cost and reduces profit margins... meanwhile Mills in Germany are using mechanical compression to squeeze the water and moisture out of their wastage products and are able to transport 50% more volume per truck load and receive a higher price for their product at the buyer destination because it's higher quality and doesn't need to use nearly as much energy to be dried..
That has to be for the wood pellet market in Europe? Not sure what else they would ship wood chips out as...but also frustrates me as a plant to create a dried, dense wood pellet is an possible employer here in Canada. There are some but not many overall.

Mechanical compression would damage the wood fiber if it was chips for wood. Same with OSB.

Ironically so many of the Canadian mills have been upgraded that the employment numbers have been dropping for years despite same production. Hew saws vs. circular head rigs, chips vs. slabs, scanner technology and automation. Many of these lessons are now being transferred around the world which makes some of the traditionally less efficient mills elsewhere much more effective competition compounding the issue.
 
Canadian technical innovation in the forest products sector has a long history. There are still Canadian firms servicing and producing equipment and matériel for the paper industry, for example, but most have pivoted to overseas sales.

The days of Montréal being taken over by the paper industry the last week of January for their trade show are long gone, though.
 
That has to be for the wood pellet market in Europe? Not sure what else they would ship wood chips out as...but also frustrates me as a plant to create a dried, dense wood pellet is an possible employer here in Canada. There are some but not many overall.
Fun fact about wood pellets from the 807 area code, feeding into the "how change is managed well or not" narrative.

Around 2015, Ontario converted a power generation plant in Thunder Bay from coal to wood pellets.

And where did they have to get the wood pellets? Norway.

That was before it was shut down, then demolished.

More here:
 
Nice! I knew you'd be along to keep us in check.

Muskeg is a thing too, as I understand it.

Logging on muskeg means 'winter logging only', when it's frozen, which cuts down your annual production levels and increases costs.
It's not so bad if you have reliable weather and it's not bitter cold.

Trying to log at -40 is very hard on the equipment...like any other gear outside. At cold but not bitter cold it can sometimes actually speed up logging as things like branches snap off easier with processors and logs slide easier with skidders....

But when you're trying to take a full years harvest off in a few months you have major challenges with:
  • labour force. You're now a seasonal employer with challenges to find enough folks at key times
  • weather. One warm spell can cause chaos. Especially if the roads don't freeze in
  • occurred costs (paying loggers for wood delivered) vs. loss of wood quality due to age vs. time to produce product and make money. Was told years ago $1/m3 per month in cost for stored wood...no idea how true it is. If your mill consumes a million m3/year it adds up quick
  • equipment costing is much higher due to short season = higher per hr rates needed to offset short working window.

Unfortunately muskeg - which is a form of wetland - often has poor growing sites and so not only are you dealing with the fun of access but you're also dealing with often poor form and poorer quality trees.
 
Fun fact about wood pellets from the 807 area code, feeding into the "how change is managed well or not" narrative.

Around 2015, Ontario converted a power generation plant in Thunder Bay from coal to wood pellets.

And where did they have to get the wood pellets? Norway.

That was before it was shut down, then demolished.

More here:
Sigh...that doesn't surprise me. Despite pellet plants in BC and Alberta.

Ironically the hydro dam at Kakabecca Falls - just outside of Thunder Bay - was built over a century ago for powering the pulp mill. So there are some successes as well.
 
That has to be for the wood pellet market in Europe? Not sure what else they would ship wood chips out as...but also frustrates me as a plant to create a dried, dense wood pellet is an possible employer here in Canada. There are some but not many overall.
Correct. Or BBQ briquettes. It's a largely untapped market here.


Fun fact about wood pellets from the 807 area code, feeding into the "how change is managed well or not" narrative.

Around 2015, Ontario converted a power generation plant in Thunder Bay from coal to wood pellets.

And where did they have to get the wood pellets? Norway.

That was before it was shut down, then demolished.

More here:

And now their latest plan is to turn the site into a Lithium Refinery, one of four being proposed for the area. There has been a big sign outside the site for about a year or two now but not much else!

Reminds me of this tbh:

 
I actually think the best way to grift off the Govt, Provincial or Federal in Canada, is to attach any sort of Green metric or slogan with an environmental narrative to it...

Solar/Wind/Carbon Neutral/Alternative/Green.... then slap Energy on the title and voila... you've got access to endless amounts of Govt grants to pay yourself for a few years with.
 
I cant imagine the bugs while logging on the muskeg...
And the black flies, the little black flies
Always the black fly, no matter where you go
I'll die with the black fly a-picking my bones
In north on-tar-i-o-i-o, in north on-tar-i-o

It was black fly, black fly everywhere
A-crawlin' in your whiskers, a-crawlin' in your hair
A-swimmin' in the soup, and a'swimmin in the tea
Oh the devil take the black fly and let me be
 
And the black flies, the little black flies
Always the black fly, no matter where you go
I'll die with the black fly a-picking my bones
In north on-tar-i-o-i-o, in north on-tar-i-o

It was black fly, black fly everywhere
A-crawlin' in your whiskers, a-crawlin' in your hair
A-swimmin' in the soup, and a'swimmin in the tea
Oh the devil take the black fly and let me be
And the mozzies...
and the horse flies...
and the sawyer beetles if there's burns/dead wood around.

Before you're walking shin deep in loon s#$@ muck, wet and grumpy...

Oh how I love muskeg walks. At least normally the swamp doesn't ripple from floating over water...that gets exciting fast.
 
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