A-10 Warthog

[KevinB]

I think fundamentally the question is how much COIN does one expect to do that justifies keeping a separate type that has limited utility elsewhere. The A-10s being 9.5% of the fast jet combat fleet is a substantial hindrance for the USAF. That will get cut down. If all that's planned is occasional fights in Africa, than a smaller dedicated fleet of 50-80 frames (of a COIN aircraft that is substantially less capable than the A-10) is probably what they end up with. But looking at what is happening with next gen rotorcraft, we're fast converging to a point where coax and tiltrotors have much of the same performance characteristics of an A-10. Only a matter of time to me before the Army and Marine Corps start asking why the USAF has OA1s when they can just weaponize an MV-75 and do the same job. And there's a case to be made that they can do it much better than the USAF.

Ye ole Key West Agreement rears its ugly head. I can see the USAF digging it's heels in about it isn't a rotary wing, so you can't arm it offensively ...
While that can't stop the USMC, the Army only really gets to do something with Armed Airframes if either it's hidden by USASOC or the USAF doesn't want and abdicates the role. The Army won "Chopper Wars" as the USAF didn't want it, and then USAF fought the Army adopting the Chinook and tried to bury that way back when as well. Army Aviation has ceded any gunship development to USASOC, and 160th has been rather hot/cold on the MV-75 due to it not working a lot of mission profiles.

Also the USAF doesn't own the OA1's that is SOCOM. Yes AFSOC, but funded out of SOCOM for SOCOM as the Big USAF didn't want the mission.