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Africa in Crisis- The Merged Superthread

Hopefully with a little carefully applied help from the west to keep things moving and functioning.
 
Bumped with the latest bit of analysis from New Jersey's Department of Homeland Security & Preparedness ...
ISIS West Africa’s tactical successes and support in Nigeria have given the group the ability to expand its influence throughout the Sahel in the coming months, threatening US economic interests in the region, including direct investment opportunities. ISIS West Africa, formed in 2016 following a split with Boko Haram, operates primarily in Nigeria and the Lake Chad region and maintains an estimated 5,000 fighters, according to open-source reporting ...
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More @ link or in attached NJSHDP one-pager.
 

Attachments

  • ISIS+West+Africa+Posturing+For+Prolonged+Insurgency.pdf
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With the amount of SOF activity in the area, along with air strikes & other activities...surely ISIS can't be expanding that much?

Kill a good chunk of them, seize their weapon caches.  Can't be too effective if a chunk of their manpower & weapons are gone.  And recruiting online can't be hugely successful given the lack of reliable internet/cell phone providers in the area.  (Almost a decade ago I worked in Africa, and unless things have DRASTICALLY changed in west Africa, can't imagine electronic communication is very robust...)
 
CBH99 said:
With the amount of SOF activity in the area, along with air strikes & other activities...surely ISIS can't be expanding that much?

Kill a good chunk of them, seize their weapon caches.  Can't be too effective if a chunk of their manpower & weapons are gone.  And recruiting online can't be hugely successful given the lack of reliable internet/cell phone providers in the area.  (Almost a decade ago I worked in Africa, and unless things have DRASTICALLY changed in west Africa, can't imagine electronic communication is very robust...)
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Ideas are hard to kill.... even harder if they're the ideas of fanatics.
 
CBH99 said:
With the amount of SOF activity in the area, along with air strikes & other activities...surely ISIS can't be expanding that much?

Kill a good chunk of them, seize their weapon caches.  Can't be too effective if a chunk of their manpower & weapons are gone.  And recruiting online can't be hugely successful given the lack of reliable internet/cell phone providers in the area.  (Almost a decade ago I worked in Africa, and unless things have DRASTICALLY changed in west Africa, can't imagine electronic communication is very robust...)
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So as you've said, you were there a decade ago. Much like Afghanistan, West Africa has tons of cell towers. Cheaper than running copper landlines. The place is also desolate, with only a few MSRs that are paved, so pretty easy to hide in the desert or among local populace. You're searching for a needle in a haystack.
 
Ah.  A decade ago it was much different, with the only cell communication available usually privy to foreign oil & gas workers, and the cellular infrastructure that came with the oil & gas sites, or provided by the oil & gas companies.

Times really have changed there.  Thanks for the update.
 
One thing that probably hasn't changed, is the stark contrast between haves and have nots. People living in a trash pile right outside a compound with manicured grass and marble floors... never seen anything like it.
 
PuckChaser said:
One thing that probably hasn't changed, is the stark contrast between haves and have nots. People living in a trash pile right outside a compound with manicured grass and marble floors... never seen anything like it.
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Except in Florida... :)
 
PuckChaser said:
One thing that probably hasn't changed, is the stark contrast between haves and have nots. People living in a trash pile right outside a compound with manicured grass and marble floors... never seen anything like it.
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Come on buddy, give em a couple C8s, some 117s and MBITR and they are basically on our level, right?

;D
 
Bumped with the latest affecting Canadians ...
Thirty-seven civilians were killed and more than 60 wounded when gunmen ambushed a convoy transporting workers of Canadian gold miner Semafo in eastern Burkina Faso, regional authorities said on Wednesday.

The attack is the deadliest in recent years as the military struggles to contain Islamist violence that has overrun parts of Burkina Faso, located in west Africa. Semafo tightened security last year following armed incidents near two of its mines in the country.

Semafo said in a statement earlier that the attack on a convoy of five buses with military escort took place on the road to its Boungou mine in the eastern region of Est, about 40 kilometres from Boungou, and that there were several fatalities and injuries.

The Est governor’s office later gave more details, saying “unidentified armed men laid an ambush for a convoy transporting Semafo workers,” giving a provisional civilian death toll of 37 with over 60 wounded.

That toll does not include an unknown number of the security forces who may have been killed in the attack. The toll was likely to rise as there are a large number of people still unaccounted for, according to a security source.

Two security sources said the military vehicle leading the convoy was struck by an IED on a stretch of road where there is no cellphone network.

Shortly after the initial explosion, an unknown number of gunmen opened fire. One of the sources said it appeared that they targeted the buses as well as the military escort, which was unusual ...
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More @ Reuters link here.  This, from the company ...
SEMAFO: Attack on the Road Between Fada and Boungou in Est Region
November 06, 2019

MONTREAL, Nov. 6, 2019 /CNW Telbec/ - SEMAFO Inc. (TSX: SMF) (OMX: SMF) ("SEMAFO") regrets to report there was an attack on the road between Fada and the Boungou Mine site in the Est region of Burkina Faso. The incident happened approximately 40 kilometers from the Boungou Mine. The convoy, escorted by military personnel,  comprised five buses transporting  SEMAFO national employees, contractors and suppliers. Information currently has several fatalities and injuries. We will issue a more fulsome statement when complete details are known.

Boungou mine site remains secured and our operations are not affected. We are actively working with all levels of authorities to ensure the on-going safety and security of our employees, contractors and suppliers.

The Company would like to express its sincere sympathy to families of the victims in addition to its firm support of Burkina Faso's security forces.

About SEMAFO

SEMAFO is a Canadian-based intermediate gold producer with over twenty years' experience building and operating mines in West Africa. The Corporation operates two mines, the Mana and Boungou Mines in Burkina Faso. SEMAFO is committed to building value through responsible mining of its quality assets and leveraging its development pipeline.
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More via Google News here.
 
milnews.ca said:
Bumped with the latest affecting Canadians ...More @ Reuters link here.  This, from the company ...More via Google News here.
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Horrific.

Apparently they fly the ex-pats back and forth by helicopter, but transport the local employees via escorted convoy. Most of these casualties will likely be local people.

 
daftandbarmy said:
Apparently they fly the ex-pats back and forth by helicopter, but transport the local employees via escorted convoy. Most of these casualties will likely be local people.
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Ouch!

Here's the latest from the company ...
MONTREAL, Nov. 7, 2019 /CNW Telbec/ - SEMAFO Inc. (TSX: SMF) (OMX: SMF) ("SEMAFO") provides an update on yesterday's attack on the public road between Fada and the Boungou Mine site in the Est region of Burkina Faso. The incident happened approximately 40 kilometers from the Boungou Mine. The convoy, escorted by military personnel, comprised five buses transporting SEMAFO national employees, contractors and suppliers. Information from Burkina Faso authorities, currently has 37 fatalities and 60 wounded.

Benoit Desormeaux, President and CEO of SEMAFO, states: "We are devastated by this unprecedented attack. Our sincerest sympathies go out to the families and colleagues of the victims. Our priority is their safety, security and well being. Given the scale of the attack it will take some time to properly deal with it and we will do our utmost to support all those affected." 

Boungou mine site remains secured, but we have suspended operations out of respect to the victims and those impacted and to ensure the highest levels of operational safety. We continue to actively work with all levels of authorities to ensure the ongoing safety, security and well-being of our employees, contractors and suppliers.

The Company would like to express again its sincere condolences to families of the victims in addition to its firm support of Burkina Faso's security forces ...
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https://www.660citynews.com/2020/11/15/canada-faces-fresh-calls-to-help-fight-terrorism-facilitate-peace-talks-in-mali/

Canadian press is reporting the French are courting us to return to mali and provide assistance. With this government it would probably be a token support effort. Though with the situation destabilizing, a battle group would be more appropriate.
 
MilEME09 said:
https://www.660citynews.com/2020/11/15/canada-faces-fresh-calls-to-help-fight-terrorism-facilitate-peace-talks-in-mali/

Canadian press is reporting the French are courting us to return to mali and provide assistance. With this government it would probably be a token support effort. Though with the situation destabilizing, a battle group would be more appropriate.
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IF we went back to Mali, it best be part of the French counter-terrorism mission there.  NOT for the UN.

That would allow us to contribute in far more meaningful ways (I have no idea what that might look like, but my main point is we would have more flexibility outside of the UN)



Sad thing is, with this government, they'd probably insist that it be under the UN flag.  Look how streamlined that was for the Chinook crews  ::)
 
CBH99 said:
IF we went back to Mali, it best be part of the French counter-terrorism mission there.  NOT for the UN.

That would allow us to contribute in far more meaningful ways (I have no idea what that might look like, but my main point is we would have more flexibility outside of the UN)



Sad thing is, with this government, they'd probably insist that it be under the UN flag.  Look how streamlined that was for the Chinook crews  ::)
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Based on the fact that one side keeps attacking the other, I doubt this would be a great 'peacekeeping' option:

Terrorists are very likely to try to carry out attacks in Mali, including in the capital Bamako.

UK Counter Terrorism Policing has information and advice on staying safe abroad and what to do in the event of a terrorist attack. Find out more about the global threat from terrorism.

Attacks could be indiscriminate, including in places visited by foreigners. You should be especially vigilant in places such as hotels, restaurants, bars, nightclubs, shopping areas, markets, public areas such as tourist attractions, transport hubs, places of worship and businesses with western interests.

Avoid all large gatherings, including music festivals, sporting events and any public marches or demonstrations. The Festival au Désert in Timbuktu was cancelled in January 2017 and has not taken place since due to security concerns. Festivals in other parts of the country are also vulnerable to attack. There may be a heightened risk of attack during election periods.

During public holidays and festivals, including New Year celebrations, security measures in Mali can be heightened due to the ongoing threat posed by terrorist organisations. During such periods you should exercise increased vigilance, limit your movements and continue to avoid large gatherings. If you think a particular venue would present a good target for terrorist activities then you should consider whether you need to visit it.

Notable attacks include:

- On 14 June 2020, terrorists attacked a Malian military convey approximately 160km north of Segou town, killing 24 soldiers.
- On 6 June 2020, terrorists conducted an attack in the area of Sarakala, Segou region, resulting in Malian Army vehicles and weapons being stolen.
- On 6 April 2020, terrorists attacked a Malian military base in Bamba, Gao region, killing 25 soldiers.
- On 26 January 2020, terrorists attacked a Malian military camp in Sokolo, Segou region, killing 20 soldiers
- On 24 February 2019, insurgents attacked the Koulikoro Training Centre, the main training base in Mali for the European Union Training Mission, approximately 55km northeast of Bamako. Four Malian military personnel were injured
- In June 2017, terrorists attacked Le Campement resort in Kangaba, on the outskirts of Bamako, which resulted in a number of deaths
- In March 2016, gunmen attacked the headquarters of the European Union Training Mission in the centre of Bamako
- In November 2015, terrorists attacked the Radisson Hotel in Bamako, killing a number of hostages including foreign nationals.

https://www.gov.uk/foreign-travel-advice/mali/terrorism
 
Totally agree with you daft. 


Just to be clear, I didn't mention 'peacekeeping' once in my post.

IF we decided to get involved, I believe it should be in support of the French counter terrorism mission there.  Plenty of lessons to be crossed over from Afghanistan, our kit is more or less optimized for that kind of warfare, and we would have the potential to have a far greater impact than if we deployed under the UN.


Let the 3rd world countries who use the UN peacekeeping operations as a fundraiser continue to do that.  If we were to get involved, I'd prefer it be under our own flag.  :2c:
 
CBH99 said:
Totally agree with you daft. 


Just to be clear, I didn't mention 'peacekeeping' once in my post.

IF we decided to get involved, I believe it should be in support of the French counter terrorism mission there.  Plenty of lessons to be crossed over from Afghanistan, our kit is more or less optimized for that kind of warfare, and we would have the potential to have a far greater impact than if we deployed under the UN.


Let the 3rd world countries who use the UN peacekeeping operations as a fundraiser continue to do that.  If we were to get involved, I'd prefer it be under our own flag.  :2c:
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Agreed. However, the list of 'short and successful' counter-insurgency/terrorist campaign is terribly short.

Once we go through that looking glass we should be prepared to stay for a decade or so...
 
daftandbarmy said:
Agreed. However, the list of 'short and successful' counter-insurgency/terrorist campaign is terribly short.

Once we go through that looking glass we should be prepared to stay for a decade or so...
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Agreed especially if we only commit some token force. A full battle group, with air support including fast air would be the minimal in my opinion to be effective.
 
MilEME09 said:
Agreed especially if we only commit some token force. A full battle group, with air support including fast air would be the minimal in my opinion to be effective.
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Unlike France, our national interests as they relate to Mali are nowhere near the levels that would justify that deep a commitment, I'm thinking.
 
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