For people relying on AI calculations, caution. Google AI got 1RCHA and 1RCR mixed up on me one time, it also told me on another Google AI brief that the Canadian Airborne Regiment was stood in 2006 at Petawawa as part of CANSOFCOM. See where I am going with this?
For separation of various provinces and most likely outcomes, I think you can use AI to assist, but you will need more in depth analysis. Enter political academics and long time political pundits (The Kinsella and Lilley types, who openly have biases but can shelve them to give a good solid view on things).
For any province separating, it creates a cascading series of new events
-Human emotional reaction
-Economic reactions
-Security reactions
-International relationships (based on trade, economy, resources and defence to name but a few)
-What other nations would seek to exploit the events (Does the USA or China rush in to make sweetheart deals with the newly independent states?)
-Does war break out (Yup, I said it. A civil war can happen here, thats brutal reality)
So, if Alberta or Alberta-Saskatchewan or Quebec separate or all three, I wouldn't be so quick to cough a knee jerk answer, or overly rely on AI. (Use AI to collect and evaluate data points and then draw your own conclusions is my recommendation)