Alleged PMO obstruction in SNC Lavalin case
- Thread starter Loachman
- Start date
Not a chance we'll see Trudeau step down before the election. We're eight months out, we're about to enter a really gross and protracted campaign... SNC is going to be a weight around his ankle, but at present there's no smoking gun for anything illegal, and even JWR characterized is as not illegal. This won't sink the government, it will just make te election suck more for them and will firm up some voting intentions while swaying a limited number of others. I don't think many votes will actually really swing on this over the course of the entire campaign.
That said, the election looks pretty set to be a toss up at this point, with the usual 'anything can happen' caveat.
Would Trudeau step down if the LPC win a minority? Probably not- if he can weather this storm he'll probably keep the helm. For a Liberal leadership replacement we would probably need to see a CPC victory.
There's really not a lot of name recognition outside of the top half of Cabinet. Freeland immediately jumps to the top of my mind - she has stickhandled foreign affairs, particularly with the US, about as well as could be hoped. Being orn in Alberta wouldn't hurt her much, and she has good business experience- I think she's firm grounded in the 'real world' when it comes to trade and finance. Goodale has the political clout to potentially put it off, but I think people would be looking for someone a bit more fresh... That said, he is very highly experienced in Parliament and in the senior levels of the party, and that has something to be said for it. He would avoid many of the missteps that have plagued PMJT.
Outside of those two, nobody really stands out, though several have kept their noses suitably clean.
That said, the election looks pretty set to be a toss up at this point, with the usual 'anything can happen' caveat.
Would Trudeau step down if the LPC win a minority? Probably not- if he can weather this storm he'll probably keep the helm. For a Liberal leadership replacement we would probably need to see a CPC victory.
There's really not a lot of name recognition outside of the top half of Cabinet. Freeland immediately jumps to the top of my mind - she has stickhandled foreign affairs, particularly with the US, about as well as could be hoped. Being orn in Alberta wouldn't hurt her much, and she has good business experience- I think she's firm grounded in the 'real world' when it comes to trade and finance. Goodale has the political clout to potentially put it off, but I think people would be looking for someone a bit more fresh... That said, he is very highly experienced in Parliament and in the senior levels of the party, and that has something to be said for it. He would avoid many of the missteps that have plagued PMJT.
Outside of those two, nobody really stands out, though several have kept their noses suitably clean.
Philpott: "I must abide by my core values, my ethical responsibilities and constitutional obligations," she said in a statement.
"There can be a cost to acting on one's principles, but there is a bigger cost to abandoning them."
Oh boy. Something’s up.
"There can be a cost to acting on one's principles, but there is a bigger cost to abandoning them."
Oh boy. Something’s up.
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Given the current rate of change, we must amend "A week is a long time in politics" to read "A day is a long time in politics."
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American Thinker suggests there is a much, much greater issue that will bring the Liberals down: the Economy.
https://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2019/03/can_prettyboy_justin_trudeau_survive.html
Relevant quote:
Considering we are tied at the hip to the world's largest economy, and the US economy has seen an explosive 100% jump in economic growth from 2% to 4% since 2016, this result seems incredible. Of course since Canada did not adjust tax rates to meet the challenge of US tax reform we hav lost $100 billion in foreign investment, and the blockade on pipeline construction deprives the canadian economy of millions of dollars per day (and to add insult to injury, we also spend millions of dollars to import Saudi Arabian oil to supply the East Coast...).
People may not remember all the scandals and gaffes, but they will be very aware of their pocketbooks....
https://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2019/03/can_prettyboy_justin_trudeau_survive.html
Relevant quote:
Considering we are tied at the hip to the world's largest economy, and the US economy has seen an explosive 100% jump in economic growth from 2% to 4% since 2016, this result seems incredible. Of course since Canada did not adjust tax rates to meet the challenge of US tax reform we hav lost $100 billion in foreign investment, and the blockade on pipeline construction deprives the canadian economy of millions of dollars per day (and to add insult to injury, we also spend millions of dollars to import Saudi Arabian oil to supply the East Coast...).
People may not remember all the scandals and gaffes, but they will be very aware of their pocketbooks....
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I think it's still a touch early for that (as of this post, anyway), but stand by for further evacuees ...Remius said:
:nod:dapaterson said:
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Fair enough, but my :2c: is still that we're not seeing rebellion -- the crack in the dyke IS getting bigger, though.Remius said:
To fuel thought experiments and to act as a "speculation score card" of sorts, here's the list of Ministers in order of precedence as of JUST before Philpott leaving ...
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QV said:
Could be I’m wrong- for the time being, we’ll have to see if this turns into real momentum. The possibility also exists that if cabinet revolts hard and fast, that may allow for consolidation in time for the election. But a cabinet shakeup and a couple resignations eight months out is not a definite death knell for the current government.
In case it’s been lost or forgotten, I do hope to see the LPC defeated in the next election, but I’m still going to be pragmatic and objective as I watch what’s happening.
Brihard said:
Part of this will be Gerald Butts and his testimony. If it goes bad...
I heard a really good point on talk radio this aft. JWR and Jane Philpott resigned on principle and not policy differences or because they themselves did something bad. That resonates with people.
QV
Army.ca Veteran
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Brihard said:
Maybe. Although, it's been many years since a sitting government has been rocked by this level of scandal...
While we are on predictions... If he doesn't just contradict JWR, I think it possible Gerry Butts will try and take full blame for all of this to save the PM. But it's too late for that IMHO.
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Brihard said:
Better... The Minister Responsible for Spending Money (Public Services and Procurement Canada) has just been double-hatted as being also The Minister for Writing Cheques (President of the Treasury Board) - Carla Qualtrough - Qhat type of Trough was that?
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You're not supposed to use political pressure to get your friends off the hook on federal bribery charges either, but here we are.QV said:I didn't think you could 32 and 33?
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