Arctic/Offshore Patrol Ship AOPS

[YZT580]

With Seaspan wrapped up with their current work load of the 3 OFSV, the 2 JSS and 1 OOSV ships, added into the mix the up to 16 other CCGS ships just announced.  I think that its safe to say that Davie will get the contract for the Dief, as well as any other vessels for the CCG and they'll most likely get the Kingston replacements once that's decided upon.
Neither Irving nor Seaspan will have any capacity left to build anything over the next 25+yrs.

Also looks like the Thales contract to maintain the AOPS's just got a bit bigger as I assume (a mistake to do so?) they will get the maintenance for the 2 CCG AOPS's as well.

I wouldn't bet on it.  There is no love lost between the liberals and Davie, especially after the Norman fiasco.  Either Seaspan or Irving could use the guaranteed business to expand their yard or to partner with another shipyard i.e. Port Weller so as to keep the profits in house.

 

[Journeyman]

….partner with another shipyard i.e. Port Weller...

Well, Port Weller does have a Liberal MP, not like those Lévis voters (Davie) who elected a Conservative.

….not that any of this is politicized in any way. 

 

[Czech_pivo]

I wouldn't bet on it.  There is no love lost between the liberals and Davie, especially after the Norman fiasco.  Either Seaspan or Irving could use the guaranteed business to expand their yard or to partner with another shipyard i.e. Port Weller so as to keep the profits in house.

Could be.
But if you look on the updated NSS website under the PWC site it lists the shipbuilder for the Dief as 'TBD'. 

 

[Underway]

Well, Port Weller does have a Liberal MP, not like those Lévis voters (Davie) who elected a Conservative.

….not that any of this is politicized in any way. 

I don't even know if Port Weller is solvent...  Davie is going to win this easy.  But you can say you had a competition to avoid issues.

Could be.
But if you look on the updated NSS website under the PWC site it lists the shipbuilder for the Dief as 'TBD'. 

Because the contract hasn't been awarded yet.  It seems a formality to me.  I would argue that midshore support ships are much more important then a heavy ice breaker.  They will service more populated and more travelled navigational routes.  Arctic is really a minor side show to the Gulf of St. Laurence,  and the approaches to Halifax/Vancouver.

 

[Kirkhill]

So the original NSS called for Irving to get the Combat work and Seaspan to get the Non-Combat work.

In my mind that meant that Irving would be getting the frigates while Seaspan would be getting the AOPS - a west coast designed ship built to commercial standards and following on from a similarly designed and built Norwegian ship supplied by a company with a long association to the west coast.

Instead the AOPS was navified and canadianized and given to Irving until decisions could be made on the CSC.

Seaspan got 3 OFSV, 1 OOSV, 2 JSS and 1 PI.  - Arguably a more difficult and less profitable build due to all the concurrent designs to be managed to meet the needs of different customers.

Then Irving's work load was cut from 8 AOPS to 6 to 5 for a larger budget.

Seaspan was presented with the possibility of an additional 3.8 BCAD of work for a mix of 10 MEMTV and OPV at some point in the future.

Then Irving develops a gap due to the lack of decision making on the CSC - a decision making process in which it is intimately involved - and the government decides to buy another AOPS at a higher price than the original 5.

That still doesn't cover the gap so the government decides to award non-combat work, in the form of two civil duties AOPS, arguably poaching work from Seaspan for Irving.

And, in best Ottawa fashion, the government announces that Seaspan will be getting, at some point in the future, a contract for 16 MEMTVs - 10 of which were proposed back in 2013 (as a mix of OPVs and MEMTVs).  None of the OPVs or MEMTVs have yet been designed.

Meanwhile the Diefenbaker work has been pulled and sent to political never-never land - probably to go to a competing yard.

I can see how Seaspan would be thrilled.

 

[Kirkhill]

... Arctic is really a minor side show to the Gulf of St. Laurence,  and the approaches to Halifax/Vancouver.

And that is why the arctic islands have Brit and Norwegian names...

The arctic is a minor side show.

 

[Underway]

So the original NSS called for Irving to get the Combat work and Seaspan to get the Non-Combat work.

In my mind that meant that Irving would be getting the frigates while Seaspan would be getting the AOPS - a west coast designed ship built to commercial standards and following on from a similarly designed and built Norwegian ship supplied by a company with a long association to the west coast.

Instead the AOPS was navified and canadianized and given to Irving until decisions could be made on the CSC.

Seaspan got 3 OFSV, 1 OOSV, 2 JSS and 1 PI.  - Arguably a more difficult and less profitable build due to all the concurrent designs to be managed to meet the needs of different customers.

Then Irving's work load was cut from 8 AOPS to 6 to 5 for a larger budget.

Seaspan was presented with the possibility of an additional 3.8 BCAD of work for a mix of 10 MEMTV and OPV at some point in the future.

Then Irving develops a gap due to the lack of decision making on the CSC - a decision making process in which it is intimately involved - and the government decides to buy another AOPS at a higher price than the original 5.

That still doesn't cover the gap so the government decides to award non-combat work, in the form of two civil duties AOPS, arguably poaching work from Seaspan for Irving.

And, in best Ottawa fashion, the government announces that Seaspan will be getting, at some point in the future, a contract for 16 MEMTVs - 10 of which were proposed back in 2013 (as a mix of OPVs and MEMTVs).  None of the OPVs or MEMTVs have yet been designed.

Meanwhile the Diefenbaker work has been pulled and sent to political never-never land - probably to go to a competing yard.

I can see how Seaspan would be thrilled.

I don't see Seaspan running out of ships to build any time soon.  They were originally thrilled because they though Davie would win because of politics.  I'm sure they have their hands full dealing with what they have to deal with right now.  They don't have any production gap worries.

And that is why the arctic islands have Brit and Norwegian names...

The arctic is a minor side show.

Simplifies the issue extraordinary.  Competition between the UK and Norway to discover and reach all the random corners of the world was a national obsession and much of it was done by private individuals.  Explorers were the professional athletes of their time.  Not to mention that Canada was British at the time.

 

[Underway]

Very well written article on the impacts and uses of the AOPV for the CCG from Eye on the Arctic section of CBC news.

Few tidbits that I really like:

Choi said if the purchase of the two ships does indeed go through, it would be a rare case in Canadian, and indeed Western, military/paramilitary procurement where the number of equipment purchased is the same as initially promised.

This made me laugh.  Actually getting the full 8 ships initially promised. Much increased cost but actually getting them never happens in world military procurement circles.

For the coast guard, the most obvious advantage of having the two AOPS would be that its ageing fleet will receive two long-endurance, helicopter-carrying, offshore vessels much earlier than expected, Choi said.

...the first of the new CCG offshore patrol vessels would not likely enter service until the late 2020s if they are contracted at all – there have been no movements in that regard,” Choi said. “Whereas the two AOPS could be built at the end of the currently ‘hot’ construction line and be completed much earlier to help replace older ships like the Cape Roger and its sister Cygnus as they reach the end of their service lives.”

This is a big improvement to relieve some of the older ships their yeomans work. 

Some experts have noted that AOPS may not be fast enough for fisheries patrol duties, though the ships they would replace, the Cape Roger and Cygnus, are only a knot faster and that is without accounting for their greater age that might reduce their actual top speed, Choi said.

“In any case, the AOPS benefits from having the much faster helicopter and room for fast boats that can make up for the platform’s moderate speed: a combination used by the Norwegian and United States coast guards, for example, who rarely depend on their ships to chase down violators and instead employ tactics that leverage their helicopter and fast boats,” Choi said.

This.  The MCDV's can do their job because of using these tactics.  AOPV both CCG and RCN versions will be even better at it because of the ability to take a helo and bigger/faster ships boats.  These ships go fast enough to do the job they need to do with the right ancillary kit.

To stave off the expected layoffs, the federal announced in November that it would order a sixth AOPS, but at nearly $800 million this ship was expected cost almost twice as much as its predecessors.

However, adding two more ships to the production queue means that the shipyard no longer needs to artificially extend the construction time for the sixth AOPS.

“The amount of time required to build AOPS 7 and 8 should be more than enough to span the gap until the Canadian Surface Combatants can be built, eliminating the need to pay the shipyard to artificially extend any of the AOPS’ construction times or to retain idle workers,” Choi said. “In sum, the logic of it may be, ‘If we’re paying double for AOPS 6, why don’t we just use the extra cost to help pay for a seventh and eight ship, and also skip the whole workforce retention issue?’”

What is said here makes sense.  I just don't expect the contract to make sense.  I expect the CCG ships will be $800 mil each.  Perhaps it will work out. But if I'm Irving, I would say tough, you already signed for $800mil for the 6th ship.

 

[MarkOttawa]

Tweet from Finnish icebreaker-design firm:

Aker Arctic
‏@AkerArctic

Despite yesterday's news for fleet renewal, there are still no publicized plans to fully replace CCG's aging medium-heavy #icebreaker fleet.
https://twitter.com/AkerArctic/status/1131547448659329024

Besides maybe the now one only polar icebreaker planned, might some further icebreakers go the Davie?

Mark
Ottawa

 

[Colin Parkinson]

So the original NSS called for Irving to get the Combat work and Seaspan to get the Non-Combat work.

In my mind that meant that Irving would be getting the frigates while Seaspan would be getting the AOPS - a west coast designed ship built to commercial standards and following on from a similarly designed and built Norwegian ship supplied by a company with a long association to the west coast.

Instead the AOPS was navified and canadianized and given to Irving until decisions could be made on the CSC.

Seaspan got 3 OFSV, 1 OOSV, 2 JSS and 1 PI.  - Arguably a more difficult and less profitable build due to all the concurrent designs to be managed to meet the needs of different customers.

Then Irving's work load was cut from 8 AOPS to 6 to 5 for a larger budget.

Seaspan was presented with the possibility of an additional 3.8 BCAD of work for a mix of 10 MEMTV and OPV at some point in the future.

Then Irving develops a gap due to the lack of decision making on the CSC - a decision making process in which it is intimately involved - and the government decides to buy another AOPS at a higher price than the original 5.

That still doesn't cover the gap so the government decides to award non-combat work, in the form of two civil duties AOPS, arguably poaching work from Seaspan for Irving.

And, in best Ottawa fashion, the government announces that Seaspan will be getting, at some point in the future, a contract for 16 MEMTVs - 10 of which were proposed back in 2013 (as a mix of OPVs and MEMTVs).  None of the OPVs or MEMTVs have yet been designed.

Meanwhile the Diefenbaker work has been pulled and sent to political never-never land - probably to go to a competing yard.

I can see how Seaspan would be thrilled.

Seaspan also has the sub contract and is the only Canadian yard that I am aware of doing work on foreign naval vessels, hopefully a trend that will continue.

 

[Czech_pivo]

And that is why the arctic islands have Brit and Norwegian names...

The arctic is a minor side show.

Maybe in a generation or two those Brit and Norwegian names will be Russian and/or Chinese instead....

 

[Czech_pivo]

What is said here makes sense.  I just don't expect the contract to make sense.  I expect the CCG ships will be $800 mil each.  Perhaps it will work out. But if I'm Irving, I would say tough, you already signed for $800mil for the 6th ship.

Coming from the Sackville Tribune "The two AOPS are expected to cost $1.5 billion, and the other 16 vessels approximately $14.2 billion"

So, I guess one can surmise that the BAE 25mm cannon, related C&C infrastructure and military grade radar costs only 50$ million per ship if the 6th AOPS cost us 800$ million and these run us 750$ million.

Any thoughts if the CCG will need to be buying any new helo's for these ships?

 

[Colin Parkinson]

CCG does not base their helo's to a ship, but assigns them as needed, the Helo's and crews are actually on contract from Transport Canada, the helicopters were recently replaced so they would use the existing fleet. Tasks would include ice reconnaissance and navaids repair.

 

[MarkOttawa]

In 2015 cost of five RCN A/OPS from Irving was $3.5B or $700M each:
https://www.cgai.ca2015_status_report_on_major_defence_equipment_procurements#ArcticOffshorePatrolShip

Sixth ship added and cost went to $4.3B, last ship most expensive (!) at $800M:
https://www.canada.ca/en/department-national-defence/services/procurement/arctic-offshore-patrol-ships.html

Cost of two more for CCG "Under review":
https://www.tpsgc-pwgsc.gc.ca/app-acq/amd-dp/mer-sea/sncn-nss/projets-projects-eng.html#s7

So the costing for Justin's big 18 new vessels for CCG announced May 22 is thin to say the least. Last minute effort to buy votes without proper procurement groundwork having been done.

Mark
Ottawa

 

[MarkOttawa]

Further to this post,
https://milnet.ca/forums/threads/64037/post-1572544.html#msg1572544

other icebreakers that might go to Davie?

Vard explores concepts for Canadian Coast Guard future fleet

Vancouver, B.C., based Vard Marine, Inc. reports that the Canadian Coast Guard has awarded it an engineering services contract to explore concepts for the Coast Guard’s future fleet renewal program.

Vard says that the work scope is aligned with the company’s core competencies in tailored, fit for purpose, multi-mission ship design. It includes parametric concept design, feasibility studies and operational analysis, system design studies, trade-off analysis, and cost modeling. The work is intended to explore requirements for multiple future fleet ship types and could stretch over several years.

The contract continues a relationship between the Canadian Coast Guard and Vard Marine that began with Vard Marine designed patrol and science vessels built in the mid 1980’s and carrying on with the development of the designs for the Offshore Oceanographic Science Vessel and the Polar Icebreaker.

https://www.marinelog.com/news/vard-explores-concepts-for-canadian-coast-guard-future-fleet/

Mark
Ottawa

 

[Oldgateboatdriver]

Besides maybe the now one only polar icebreaker planned, might some further icebreakers go the Davie?

Mark
Ottawa

That is actually the thought that entered my mind: There as been no mention whatsoever of the replacement of the CCG icebreaker fleet. The Multi-Task vessels are considered light icebreakers - they can give an extra hand, especially in spring lighter ice that has already partially melted and is starting to break on its own, but they cannot do the heavy River and Arctic lifting required during the coldest part of the season. For that last part, the Coast Guard needs its six actual icebreakers  (Seven with Captain Molly Kool?).

The icebreakers - not mentioned - go from 32 years old for the Henry Larsen to 50 for the Louis-St-Laurent, with three of them (the Type 1200) basically at 40.

So the lack of mention is either indicative of the Liberal intending to go with the three interim icebreakers being updated at Davie as permanent replacement of the Type 1200, the Diefenbaker replacing the Louis and the Terry-Fox and Henry-Larsen going on for an odd 20 more years ...

Or, the real idea is to "select"* Davie as the third NSS yard, after a "rigorous" selection process and then announce that it will get the icebreakers.

P.S.: That would certainly be a smart move, IMHO, as building actual icebreakers is a more specialized form of shipbuilding and it makes sense to concentrate it at a single specialist yard.


*: Magically!

 

[suffolkowner]

Are all these ships possible? Even adding Davie into the mix we will have three yards building non stop for 30 years at current rate.

That sounds about right though 3 yards at a ship a year each gives you 90 ships over 30 years, then start over. Might be some ongoing issues for the first 30 year cycle but if the government stays the course we should end up with a logical progression plan. History suggests that wont happen but I can hope.

The costing has never made any sense on this program partly due to funding yard modernization, but mostly since the government seems to have given away its negotiating leverage. Perhaps going forward it would be wiser for the yards to have to actually submit/compete among each other for the work. Probably the only comparable on ship construction would come from South Korea as it seems that every other national endeavor seems to have subsidies buried in there somewhere.

Lots of questions and concerns about the NSS but more about the execution than the premise.

Hopefully these next two AOPS don't cost more than the sixth one? Usually it is claimed that shipbuilding cost go down over longer production runs
Meanwhile Seaspan is building the AOR without a contract in place!
Does a 2:6 ratio of AOPS for the CCG:RCN even make sense?
To me they should almost be reversed. Correct me if I am wrong but does not the CCG only have 6 ships with a greater Ice Class than the AOPS?

Years ago I was told by Minister O'Connor that it would be impossible for the ship construction assignments to be switched between Irving and Seaspan due to the commitments already made and that the ship yard modernization completed prohibited the ability of Irving for example building the AOR's. I did not believe it then and I do not today, but most of what i know about ships I have learned from this site.

 

[Czech_pivo]

I had mentioned the pricing of the 2 AOPS CCG ships previously.  Here is the article that discusses prices.

https://www.sackvilletribunepost.com/news/irving-to-build-two-more-arctic-patrol-ships-in-halifax-314621/

Irving to build two more Arctic patrol ships in Halifax
$1.5-billion purchase to offset production gap

 

[suffolkowner]

I had mentioned the pricing of the 2 AOPS CCG ships previously.  Here is the article that discusses prices.

https://www.sackvilletribunepost.com/news/irving-to-build-two-more-arctic-patrol-ships-in-halifax-314621/

Irving to build two more Arctic patrol ships in Halifax
$1.5-billion purchase to offset production gap

I took that as more of a guestimate as it is a crazy number. We were told the sixth ship cost twice as much because the government was paying for the slowed down production. What is the excuse for the 7th and 8th ship?

Ships 1-5  $460 per
Ship 6      $810 or $518 per
Ships 7-8  $750 or $576 per

I have read in the past in regards to ship costing from USN that you basically flatten out at 9 platforms, nowhere have I seen an explanation for the cost to increase as production maturity is reached. If this is true then there is obviously no incentive for either Irving or Seaspan to even try to be competitive.

 

[Uzlu]

I took that as more of a guestimate as it is a crazy number.

Numbers seven and eight are not Harry DeWolfs.  They are modified Harry DeWolfs.  And, as such, they will cost extra for re-design work and government program management.  I suspect, however, that the vast majority of the extra cost is a—nudge nudge wink wink—subsidy for Irving to help them prepare for the surface combatants.