Brexit Vote: 51.9% leave, 48.1% stay

[Kirkhill]

And this article is required reading to understand the Euromats' fears and the opportunities for Britain's negotiators.

http://www.pewglobal.org/2016/06/07/euroskepticism-beyond-brexit/

The Chief Euromat is already having to defend his title.

Brexit was Juncker's fault and he must go, says Czech foreign minister

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/26/brexit-was-junckers-fault-and-he-must-go-says-czech-foreign-mini/

And this from one of the sanest commentators today: Ambrose Evans-Pritchard

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/06/26/parliament-must-decide-what-brexit-means-in-the-interests-of-the/

 

[Fishbone Jones]

The 'common man' is starting to come into their own. They have, except in the most despotic of nations, begun to show the utter disdain and contempt for the politicos and are feeling empowered enough they have begun to fight back. The whoa is us crowd, the professional politicians, are seeing their sway and power disintegrating before their eyes. Big business and global financiers, that control those politicians are losing their grasp on their NWO.

Real people who are tired of living under, ever increasing, stupid rules that are designed to keep the elite in power, have had enough. The US election, BREXIT, et al are those road signs that are showing the disdain the working person feels for the power of demagogues who feel that it is their right to run the world, the way they want, in order to maximize their own profits.

All the 'Remain' propaganda is being fousted, on the world, by those elites and their PR firms, the MSM that they all own. News and talk programs are nothing more than big, long commercials for those in power. They are not to be believed. Which is another thing that the common working person has had just about enough of also. 

This will not be the end of Britain as we know it, but it probably is the end of the EU, period. France and Germany will just have to give up the idea of being Europe's rulers.

It might be a good time to start looking at retirement property in Greece or Italy.

 

[The Bread Guy]

A bit of "reverse tea leaf reading" via a paper prepared by the U.S. Congressional Research Service (attached) a few days before the big vote:

... Possible Aftermaths

Technically, the referendum is only advisory for Parliament, but the government has asserted that it "would have a democratic duty to give effect to the electorate's decision." There is no precedent for a country withdrawing from the EU, so a high degree of uncertainty exists about how the separation might work.

A vote to leave is unlikely to force the UK out of the EU immediately. Under its treaty framework, the way for a member country to withdraw from the EU is to invoke Article 50 of the Treaty on European Union, opening a two-year period in which the two sides would attempt to negotiate a withdrawal agreement.

There is no preset time frame for the notification that begins this process. The timing of the notification would be a political decision that could be delayed by holding a Parliamentary debate on the exit beforehand, for example.

The main purpose of the withdrawal agreement would be to settle transition arrangements in policy areas covered by EU treaties. Until the negotiation is concluded, the UK would remain a member of the EU and subject to its rules. Details about the future arrangement of the relationship between the UK and the EU likely would be negotiated as a separate agreement.

Many observers believe that the process of negotiating these agreements would likely take considerably longer than two years to complete. As expressed by the UK government itself, "a vote to leave the EU would be the start, not the end, of a process. It could lead to up to a decade or more of uncertainty."

Analysts have expressed concerns that a vote to withdraw from the EU could cause an economic shock that would leave the UK facing weaker economic growth, higher inflation, and depreciation of the pound, with potentially significant negative consequences for the U.S. and global economies. The UK might face a period of domestic political instability if a Brexit vote imperils the position of Prime Minister Cameron or fuels a renewed push for Scotland to separate from the UK.

Some are concerned that a Brexit could prompt a wider unraveling of the EU. At a time of growing skepticism toward the EU in many member countries, a UK departure could lead to more calls for special membership conditions or referendums on membership in other countries. Others suggest that the EU could emerge as a more like-minded bloc, able to pursue deeper integration without UK opposition.

A vote to stay in, on the other hand, could give Cameron a freer hand in shaping EU initiatives and restore the UK as a key player in the EU ...

 

[Brad Sallows]

For the past few years I've been reading increasing amounts of stuff written by economists, political scientists, and the occasional sociologist about the importance of studying politics and economics with a strong human behavioural component, rather than as a simple exercise in remorseless mathematically-driven rational calculations.

And now all the pundits who object to the result are bleating about how the benighted underclasses have done the wrong thing, by their failure to reach the conclusion that is so obvious if you do the remorseless mathematically-driven rational calculations correctly.

If the factor you treasure above all others had zero weight in someone else's estimate, it doesn't mean he is wrong.

 

[Furniture]

For the past few years I've been reading increasing amounts of stuff written by economists, political scientists, and the occasional sociologist about the importance of studying politics and economics with a strong human behavioural component, rather than as a simple exercise in remorseless mathematically-driven rational calculations.

And now all the pundits who object to the result are bleating about how the benighted underclasses have done the wrong thing, by their failure to reach the conclusion that is so obvious if you do the remorseless mathematically-driven rational calculations correctly.

If the factor you treasure above all others had zero weight in someone else's estimate, it doesn't mean he is wrong.

I believe this strikes at the key behind the Brexit, Trump and Ford... People are sick of the rich and powerful telling them how wonderful things are. The average Canadian/American/Brit doesn't own stocks or care about the exchanges. The average voter cares about how their individual standard of living compares to what they expect and are promised, and the reality is most have been sold a pipe dream by politicians who only care about being elected so they can draw exorbitant MP/Congress benefits and pay.

It doesn't matter that many of the people who run for office do so out of a sense of duty, all it takes is the perception that they are there to serve themselves first. In Canada the recent pay rtaise for MPs serves as a reminder that even at home the ruling class is out of touch with the average voter.

 

[jmt18325]

Yeah, common people, like Trump.

Anyway, I haven't turned down any pay raises lately.

 

[jollyjacktar]

Common people do like Trump, I agree.  Pay raises, haven't seen one of those for some time.

 

[jmt18325]

Common people do like Trump, I agree. 

I know that you know that I didn't mean that at all.

Won't they be ever so disappointed in him if he wins though.  There's nothing common about him.

 

[jollyjacktar]

I know that you know that I didn't mean that at all.

Won't they be ever so disappointed in him if he wins though.  There's nothing common about him.

I think they'll be disappointed with either option on the table.  Most options leave you wanting.  We are no different here.

 

[Lightguns]

Although I'd wager there's more than one ABC Veteran who's suffering buyer's regret seeing as they were gulled by false promise.

Not according to their twitter account, they re-tweet liberal propaganda like a partisan party member (which they likely are).  But speaking of regret, County Cornwall, poorest county in UK, is now changing their minds as most of their welfare benefits comes from the EU.

 

[jollyjacktar]

With the Labour party tearing itself to pieces, I'm sure there's more than on on the dole who's nervous now.

 

[Remius]

Interesting article from CNN on the Brexit broken promises that are already taking shape.

http://money.cnn.com/2016/06/27/news/economy/brexit-broken-promises/index.html

I think I agree with the first two.  Clearly the leaver side made some promises it can't or won't keep.  The third one though is too early to tell. But if the economy continues to tank, it might be a good thing for any country that might have issues with separatists and what not.  It may be something to discourage them from leaving their own unions.

 

[Kirkhill]

Surely the point is that the UK now has the authority to reallocate those funds as it sees fit.... and that could include a new hospital, or any other application foreign or domestic.  But that money will be controlled by Westminster and not Brussels.

 

[Remius]

Surely the point is that the UK now has the authority to reallocate those funds as it sees fit.... and that could include a new hospital, or any other application foreign or domestic.  But that money will be controlled by Westminster and not Brussels.

The point is that leaders on the leave side are backing away from statements they made prior to the referendum.  And yes they can allocate funds any way they want, the problem is that those sectors who were assured that those funds would still go to them are being told that now, that might not happen.

 

[YZT580]

One thing is certain.  The EU is going to play hardball right up until the final divorce papers are signed and acted upon.  They will make it as noticeably difficult as possible to discourage other would-be exiters. 

 

[Remius]

One thing is certain.  The EU is going to play hardball right up until the final divorce papers are signed and acted upon.  They will make it as noticeably difficult as possible to discourage other would-be exiters.

They have already stated that no discussions, formal or informal will be made until article 50 is initiated.

 

[The Bread Guy]

One thing is certain.  The EU is going to play hardball right up until the final divorce papers are signed and acted upon.  They will make it as noticeably difficult as possible to discourage other would-be exiters.

:nod:

So, out-of-left-field scenario:  is the UK government going to be craven enough to say, "well, a referendum provides us with INPUT from the public, but this'll have to be voted on" now that there's a lot of folks soiling their silks? 

 

[Kirkhill]

Germany has already said there is no reason to be nasty.  Britain is to take its time to get a negotiating team in place.

The Germans are leaning towards a modified Norwegian solution.  The French are leaning towards a modified Swiss solution.

German industry has said they don't want to lose access to the British market for cars.

Hollande has started to be less histrionic after a talk with Merkel.

A meeting of BeNeLux plus France, Germany and Italy has pissed off the other 21 who have decided to have their own meetings. 

The French and German foreign ministers have floated the prospect of eliminating all national sovereignty. Lead balloon.

The Czech Republic has called for Juncker's resignation.

It is all to play for.

The game of Rugby has an interesting history.  A game of football was being played.  At some point a chap name of William Webb Ellis picked up the ball and ran with it.  Chaos ensued.  Two sports emerged.  Rugby and Soccer.

Some of the Brits have just picked up the ball and run with it.  We wait to see what will emerge.

And by the way - on the subject of campaign statements - there are statements and there are statements and there are interpretations of statements.

"We can move money to health care."  "We will move money to health care." "They said they would move money to health care."

Equally:

"The universe will end."  "A black hole will ensue."  "Your pensions will disappear." "Nobody will trade with us ever again."

And let us not get into the subject of domestic Canadian politicians and campaign statements.



It is permissible to point out worst case scenarios during debate.  Equally it is permissible to point out best case scenarios.  Both scenarios are equally unlikely.

 

[Journeyman]

The game of Rugby has an interesting history.

Oh, and this whole scenario isn't tragic / magnificent enough (perspective dependent),  you had to bring up rugby.....after Canada's boring 20-18 defeat by Italy yesterday....    Bitch!



(That's all I've got on Brexit;  I'm still going through John Oliver's "analyses" (in the CBC sense of the word) on YouTube until the dust settles a bit  op: )

 

[daftandbarmy]

I'm with this 'MEPpit':

EU Debate - Oxford Union. Daniel Hannan MEP


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tzNj-hH8LkY