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Brit Diplomats in AFG: Too Late to Head Off Taliban Spring Push?

The Bread Guy

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Are these diplomats maybe leaning too FAR towards their "D" in the equation? 

Shared in accordance with the "fair dealing" provisions, Section 29, of the Copyright Act.

Softly, softly in the Taliban's den
Syed Saleem Shahzad, Asia Times Online, 27 Jan 07
Article Link

KABUL - In five years, US military might, from daisy-cutter bombs to high-tech weaponry, could not smoke out the Taliban, who retreated to the mountains of Afghanistan after being forced from power in 2001.

They emerged last year of their own volition after being welcomed back into the community by various tribal groups, many of which are ready to join in a mass uprising planned for the spring.

Seasoned British officers assigned in southern Afghanistan to clean up the mess created by the Americans can sense that big trouble is simmering, but they are convinced that any aggressive policy will aggravate the situation. (Poster's comment:  WTF???)

They realize that they have to accept the Taliban's existence as a reality, strike peace deals with them and allow them into the political power-sharing apparatus. This, they argue, can be done through extensive reconstruction, which is the only way to isolate hardline insurgents. Military might, therefore, is to be used only for the security of the people, not for aggressive armed campaigns.

In southwestern Afghanistan, the city of Kandahar and its environs are the Taliban's main focus. However, their main strategic back yard is Helmand province, from where they raise human and material resources with money flowing from poppy cultivation. In the spring, Helmand will be the main engine for the Taliban's planned capture of Kandahar and the proposed push to Kabul.

Helmand, understandably, has in recent months been the center of the International Security Assistance Force's (ISAF's) operations, with heavy US bombings and frequent engagements between the Taliban and British ground troops.

All the same, the Taliban claim that of 17 districts in the province, they are now in control of 13, either partially or completely. The deputy British Task Force commander of Helmand province, Colonel Ian Huntley, dismisses this claim. In an interview with Asia Times Online, however, he did agree that the Taliban had secured some pockets of Helmand.

In response, the ISAF is redefining its approach, ranging from a "definition of the enemy" to the role of foreign forces in society.

"There is no military solution to the insurgency," said Nic Kay, the British regional coordinator for southern Afghanistan. Kay is a seasoned official of the Foreign Commonwealth Office (FCO) and heads all operations in Helmand province. He previously served in Pakistan and Afghanistan, besides serving as a senior desk officer handling Afghanistan and Pakistan in the FCO.

"It would be a blunder if we assess the situation with a single-track mind. We need to appreciate the fact that 'Taliban' is a generic name and there are a whole lot of reasons behind the support for the Taliban in southwestern Afghanistan," Kay told Asia Times Online in his newly built office at the British task force camp in Lashkar Gah, Helmand province.

"One of the reasons for Taliban support is loyalty to local commanders, and the sense at the moment is one of injustice, poor governance, corruption and general incompetence. Once we tackle these problems, it will be easy for us to find solutions," Kay said.

"We have conducted research, which does not have any scientific basis but it is based on our feelings. After talking to the people, we believe there are two types of Taliban - one reconcilable and the other irreconcilable. The reconcilable Taliban are about 80%, and they are disgruntled because of bad governance and corruption. The irreconcilable Taliban are those who are ideologically motivated and loyal to their command structures. They are hardly 20%. We need to carefully assess both trends separately and deal with the situation accordingly," Kay said.

In a related move, the governor of Helmand province has been replaced by Asadullah Wafa, a former royalist and expert on tribal affairs. His task is to revive tribal structures destroyed by warlords and later by the Taliban.

District shuras (councils) have been established across the province to make contact with the Taliban. The traditional structures of tribal elders and mullahs are part of the shuras, which to date have struck peace deals in Sangeen and Nawzad districts. A peace agreement in Musa Qala was secured some months ago.

"These peace agreements are actually a blessing for the people of Helmand province as they have got rid of the fighting. In the meantime, it allows us to address people's concerns, like law and order and development work," said Kay.

"For instance, three weeks ago the Afghan Auxiliary Police were deployed in Musa Qala. The police have been stationed for the protection of specific development projects like the National Solidarity Program, which is being undertaken by the Bangladeshi NGO [non-governmental organization] BRAC [Bangladesh Rural Advancement Committee]. This includes the construction of new mosques and schools, and in the meantime, with the help of the shura, we have make sure that the Taliban do not disrupt these development works," Kay said.

Kay acknowledged that despite the peace agreements, the Taliban still move around relatively freely and that the shuras themselves comprise pro-Taliban people. But Kay is confident that as long as all the protocols of the agreements are implemented, gradually the writ of the Afghan government will become stronger and the hardline Taliban will be isolated.

Huntley reiterated: "Our whole counterinsurgency approach rotates around rebuilding, reconstruction and providing security. We do not aim to chase the Taliban in the population.

"In December, in Operation Baaz Tsuka, we cleared Taliban pockets around Highway 1, which is the main artery for the supplies of UK troops between Kandahar and Camp Bastion, Helmand. In addition, we aim to provide security at the Kajaki dam project [near the source of the Helmand River]. The dam will generate 500 megawatts of hydroelectric power. We conducted an operation in the north of Helmand to provide security to the whole infrastructure of dam and the transmission routes and cleared the area of insurgents," Huntley said.

The British task force in Helmand is clearly taking careful steps not to challenge the Taliban directly, but through invoking tribal structures to isolate them, and through measures such as permanent vehicle control points, which limit their movements.

These are practical steps, but some feel it might be a case of too little too late. "Had our plans been implemented two years ago, the situation now would be diametrically opposite," commented a junior official of the FCO on condition of anonymity. "We have just started our plans, and the Taliban have already reinforced their positions and geared up for their massive spring offensive. I am afraid we missed the boat."

Syed Saleem Shahzad is Asia Times Online's Pakistan Bureau Chief. He can be reached at [email protected].
 
Maybe they just read Ruxted’s “More than a hammer” at: http://ruxted.ca/index.php?/archives/35-More-than-a-hammer.html

It encouraged ISAF to remember that: “The clan is the basic building block of Afghan culture. In pushing so fast to democratize the country we isolated powerful forces that should have been (and had been) our allies in ousting the Taliban. Forces for leadership in the community where ignored and shunted aside in order to create a version of republican democracy.”

The Brits appear to be going in what I consider the right direction: letting Afghans use their own, tried and true, traditional structures to address their own problems in their own ways.

As Ruxted said, some issues – like basic human rights – are non-negotiable.  ISAF nations, especially Canada, must not stand by while the Taliban’s goals are accomplished by stealth.  On the other hand, Canada and ISAF should not dream of making Afghanistan into a modern, secular, liberal democracy – not overnight and, most likely not ever.  Afghans are blessed (or cursed) with a long history; they are a deeply conservative, religious and tradition bound people; their social structures reflect those facts; their social structures work, for them.

The enemy is Afghanistan is not just the Taliban.  There are many insurgent groups which have clustered around local, mostly Taliban, leaders and which coordinate their operations with a Taliban high command.  Even the Taliban is not monolithic, according to what I think I have read; it appears to have factions – some of which are willing to work within a larger Afghan state.

Canada and Britain are working in the Taliban’s homeland.  It is not surprising that the Taliban is still strong there.  It is not beyond the realm of possibility that some of the Taliban have the best interests of the local people at heart and that is one of the many and varied reasons they continue to enjoy strong support.

Recognizing that, at the end of the process, we, Westerners must go home and the Afghans must manage Afghanistan to suit their own needs and in their own way is not ‘going too far’, it is accepting reality and working within it’s proper limits.  Those limits may, perhaps must include finding some places for some of the Taliban in that management process.
 
Nothing. Absolutely nothing, will be accomplished in Afghanistan until Pakistan secures its own border against the entry of "foreign" fighters into the region. Until this ridiculously obvious course of action takes place, NATO,( I should say the A,B,C,and D alliance, the rest are just "combat pretty")will just slowly bleed away.
 
I cannot just wrap my head around what so many people are saying. Because the Taliban were beaten in the fall, and havnt conducted any major offensives lately, all of a sudden the situation is stabilizing, we're going back to rebuilding and everything is happy joy time.

A) The winter has always been traditionally slower with attacks mostly focused on suicide and ied bombings
B) Untill we go through several years of relative calm in the south, I refuse to beleive the Taliban are beaten

No disrespect but how can that American Maj General (Freakly?) Say that he doubts the taliban will be able to muster another spring offensive? Last I was informed, the amount of holy warriors the taliban has at their disposal throughout the middle east is vast, weapons and plentiful, and I just refuse to beleive that a few months of kicking them around in the summer/fall has totally annihilated their ability to fight back.

Maybe im just being paranoid but with America in Vietnam and Soviet Russia in Afghanistan, militarily they creamed the NVA and the Rebels up and down the countryside, for the most part... but they were always there the next day ready to go again.

The taliban/iraqi insurgency/islamic extremists are fighting a war of attrition against us and if public support continues to drop back home, they are winning...
 
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