British Columbia NDP Majority Government 2024-(no later than) 2029

[Brad Sallows]

The BC NDP blew a $6B surplus and went into a $9B deficit within only a year.

That too. Eby and his followers (I assume like most parties the provincial NDP has at least two major sub-factions) have dug themselves some big holes.

A thing people ought to realize before it blows up in their faces is that when the provincial government trades the interests of provincial voters for other political entities claiming their own direct relationships with the federal government, the provincial government is effectively abdicating its responsibility and abandoning the consent necessary to justify its existence.

 

[daftandbarmy]

Now the wheels are coming off of Brodie's bus...

https://twitter.com/x/status/1999561024064676051

 

[Colin Parkinson]

Conservatives just can't play nice with each other.

 

[Brad Sallows]

Conservatives just can't play nice with each other.

Conservatives are ideologically disinclined to pay for everything that everyone in the tent wants. LPC and NDP can always find agreement in spending more of someone else's money.

The gaps are where no-one agrees or even understands "what are you trying to conserve?"

In Canada particularly the "centrist" conservative doesn't seem to have much more ambition than to conserve whatever the last liberal government legislated. People unwilling to turn off a recent spending program that benefits them or overturn a narrowing of former liberties aren't conserving much of anything.

Brodie is expressing sentiments that the NDP establishment in particular, and of course everyone with money interests milking rents from the current legal/political tangle/regime, would like to squash right quick. So there'll be a lot of external pressure, much of which will be hidden from public view and very personally targeted. Expect fractures.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

It is tremendous difficult to wean the public off of a perk/funding, etc. Previous Liberal governments (Chreatin, Martin) were actually good at cutting. They never announced that X was permanently going away, they just reduce or defund the program. If it blew up in their face, then they just push money back into the shell. The Conservatives, would announce the cut and do it and then have to wear the heat, with very little room to manoeuvre. When Harper took over, there was a huge number of empty program shells that took years to clean up.

If you want to form a government here in Canada now, you will need to be near the centre and work slowly and carefully to reduce it. The CPC is to quick with the knife. The Conservatives in BC are a total mess, who need a fresh face with good experience behind them, not to far right and willing to be a harsh disciplinarian with party members and keeping policy statements and promises within provincial matters and not allow the party to get baited by the NDP.

I have always said the Liberals are much better lairs than the Conservatives. A Liberal will tell people what they want to hear and then do something else. The Conservatives just are not that good at that.

 

[Halifax Tar]

It is tremendous difficult to wean the public off of a perk/funding, etc. Previous Liberal governments (Chreatin, Martin) were actually good at cutting. They never announced that X was permanently going away, they just reduce or defund the program. If it blew up in their face, then they just push money back into the shell. The Conservatives, would announce the cut and do it and then have to wear the heat, with very little room to manoeuvre. When Harper took over, there was a huge number of empty program shells that took years to clean up.

If you want to form a government here in Canada now, you will need to be near the centre and work slowly and carefully to reduce it. The CPC is to quick with the knife. The Conservatives in BC are a total mess, who need a fresh face with good experience behind them, not to far right and willing to be a harsh disciplinarian with party members and keeping policy statements and promises within provincial matters and not allow the party to get baited by the NDP.

I have always said the Liberals are much better lairs than the Conservatives. A Liberal will tell people what they want to hear and then do something else. The Conservatives just are not that good at that.

I don't think we have a party or politician that is willing to take social spending away from Canadians. Its a tried and true method to buy votes with it.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

I don't think we have a party or politician that is willing to take social spending away from Canadians. Its a tried and true method to buy votes with it.

Eventually we will have to. Better to do gradual reductions and to put grandfather clauses on them, so younger people don't get them. It sucks, but if it leads to some tax reductions then it will be palatable.

 

[Halifax Tar]

Eventually we will have to. Better to do gradual reductions and to put grandfather clauses on them, so younger people don't get them. It sucks, but if it leads to some tax reductions then it will be palatable.

I fully disagree with that. I'm not interested in locking horns another generational debate, but I will firmly stand against the youth being asked to sacrifice any more.

 

[Kirkhill]

I don't think we have a party or politician that is willing to take social spending away from Canadians. Its a tried and true method to buy votes with it.

It is the basis of the universal franchise. Governing parties under threat of replacement expanded their base of support by promising access to education, health plans and pensions.

 

[Halifax Tar]

It is the basis of the universal franchise. Governing parties under threat of replacement expanded their base of support by promising access to education, health plans and pensions.

Oh I understand the why. I just wish Canadians were ambitious enough to not need so many hand outs, and not simple enough to fall for them as vote bait.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

I fully disagree with that. I'm not interested in locking horns another generational debate, but I will firmly stand against the youth being asked to sacrifice any more.

Unless we find some massive new tax revenue base, I am not sure how sustainable the current situation is.

 

[Kirkhill]

Canadian young men are making $8,300 less while older men make $26,000 more in last 50 years: Report

thehub.ca

Visualized: Average Monthly Salary in Major Global Cities in 2025

See how salaries compare across 69 major cities around the world, along with their five-year cumulative change since 2020.

www.visualcapitalist.com

Unless we find some massive new tax revenue base, I am not sure how sustainable the current situation is.

Make more money.
Sell more stuff.

Ranked: Top 10 Countries by Value of All Their Natural Resources

Russia leads the pack with natural resources valued at $75 trillion.

www.visualcapitalist.com

 

[brihard]

The two OneBC MLAs seem to have divorced…

https://twitter.com/x/status/2000114498510914024

 

[RangerRay]

Right wing parties (not centre-right like the Socreds prior to 1991, BC Liberals post 1991) have been always been a weird collection of fruits and nuts. You usually see the same names in each iteration, whether it’s BC Reform after Jack Weisgerber and Richard Neufeld left, BC Unity (NOT to be confused with BC United), what was left of the Socreds after they imploded (a website in some guy’s basement) the B.C. Conservatives before Rustad took over, or a half dozen other parties that sprang up and died. Those parties did not have the serious backers and donors, nor did they have the Howe Street crowd. And there were usually the same fruits and nuts in each iteration.

It seems the B.C. Conservatives found a perfect storm and came close to defeating the NDP, though it is the first time a single free-enterprise party on the ballot did not defeat them. Now their bat-shittery is coming home to roost. Whether a more viable Liberal/Conservative free-enterprise coalition can rise from the ashes remains to be seen.

 

[Kirkhill]

Adam Pankratz: Cowichan ruling is scaring away investors. Don't let anyone say otherwise

The NDP is now suddenly the champion of private property, but they have zero credibility

nationalpost.com

"For B.C.’s economy, worse seems almost certainly on the way. There may be new press releases as businesses simply start “quiet quitting” B.C. without any fanfare, but rather march their investment dollars to provinces and countries where property rights and the investment climate can be relied on. This won’t just be real estate deals either, but also investments in mines, pipelines, factories and any other type of physical infrastructure."

Potash and pipelines....

 

[Kirkhill]

Plan C

Ship from Prince Rupert in 12,500 tonne barges to the Drift River Oil Terminal on Cook Inlet. A four day round trip would suggest a fleet of 40 barges required with a sailing frequency of 10 a day or one every 2 to 3 hours. Valdez would be an alternate trans-shipment point.

1,000,000 barrels a day could also be delivered to Rupert by 800 to 1000 railcars a days or 5 to 10 trains with 100 to 120 cars.

The barges and tugs are there....

....

AI Overview
It is difficult to provide an exact, real-time number of unpiloted oil barges in the Inside Passage as the exact figure is not publicly available and traffic varies, but data from the mid-2010s offers insight into the frequency of these voyages.

Pilotage Waivers: The Pacific Pilotage Authority (PPA) grants pilotage waivers to approximately 250 barges (carrying various cargo, including fuel) for the compulsory pilotage waters of the Inside Passage. These waivers allow the tug companies to use their own certified mariners instead of a local Canadian pilot.

Transit Frequency: In 2011-2012, two companies alone were responsible for about 370 transits per year through the BC portion of the Inside Passage with American tanker barges without Canadian pilots.

Fuel Deliveries: American tanker barges, typically 10,000 tons and transporting diesel, heating oil, aviation gas, and gasoline, make dozens of round trips annually from Anacortes, Washington, to supply ports in both the US and Canada (including Alaska).

These barges are part of an articulated tug-barge (ATB) system, meaning a tug is fitted into a notch at the stern of the non-self-propelled barge to push it. The tug is crewed, but the barge itself is non-self-propelled and thus "unpiloted" in the sense that it doesn't have an independent crew or engine.

Anacortes might even be better....

Rail to Rupert
Barge to Anacortes with WCS
Barge from Anacortes with refined products.

And all working within the 12,500 tonne limit.

Notley considered buying 7000 railcars and ended up leasing 4000. That would allow for a 2 to 5 day turnaround from the Bruderheim Oil Rail Terminal to Prince Rupert.

 

[Rifleman62]

It is not only businesses leaving BC.

BC Premier SHOCKED as 70,000 BC Families FLEE to Alberta​

 

[Colin Parkinson]

Plan C

Ship from Prince Rupert in 12,500 tonne barges to the Drift River Oil Terminal on Cook Inlet. A four day round trip would suggest a fleet of 40 barges required with a sailing frequency of 10 a day or one every 2 to 3 hours. Valdez would be an alternate trans-shipment point.

1,000,000 barrels a day could also be delivered to Rupert by 800 to 1000 railcars a days or 5 to 10 trains with 100 to 120 cars.

The barges and tugs are there....

....

AI Overview
It is difficult to provide an exact, real-time number of unpiloted oil barges in the Inside Passage as the exact figure is not publicly available and traffic varies, but data from the mid-2010s offers insight into the frequency of these voyages.

Pilotage Waivers: The Pacific Pilotage Authority (PPA) grants pilotage waivers to approximately 250 barges (carrying various cargo, including fuel) for the compulsory pilotage waters of the Inside Passage. These waivers allow the tug companies to use their own certified mariners instead of a local Canadian pilot.

Transit Frequency: In 2011-2012, two companies alone were responsible for about 370 transits per year through the BC portion of the Inside Passage with American tanker barges without Canadian pilots.

Fuel Deliveries: American tanker barges, typically 10,000 tons and transporting diesel, heating oil, aviation gas, and gasoline, make dozens of round trips annually from Anacortes, Washington, to supply ports in both the US and Canada (including Alaska).

These barges are part of an articulated tug-barge (ATB) system, meaning a tug is fitted into a notch at the stern of the non-self-propelled barge to push it. The tug is crewed, but the barge itself is non-self-propelled and thus "unpiloted" in the sense that it doesn't have an independent crew or engine.

Anacortes might even be better....

Rail to Rupert
Barge to Anacortes with WCS
Barge from Anacortes with refined products.

And all working within the 12,500 tonne limit.

Notley considered buying 7000 railcars and ended up leasing 4000. That would allow for a 2 to 5 day turnaround from the Bruderheim Oil Rail Terminal to Prince Rupert.

I doubt very much that the railline in PR could handle that increase in traffic. There are several choke points along the route that prevent expansion and the only "loop" to get trains out was recently built on Ridely Island to service the terminals there. Add in a complex traditional territorially claim network in the area, that makes every expansion difficult.

 

[daftandbarmy]

It is not only businesses leaving BC.

BC Premier SHOCKED as 70,000 BC Families FLEE to Alberta​

An article from July, so a trend that's been building for awhile.

Who needs those keen, young, hardworking professionals though, right?

So long, farewell… the number of people leaving B.C. hit a new record​

Who is the typical interprovincial migrant? ​

Interprovincial migrants tend to be young, highly educated, and economically motivated. B.C. data shows that younger people, particularly those aged 25-39 years and 15-24 years, consistently account for the largest shares of interprovincial out-migrants (Figure 4). In fact, 77% of all B.C. interprovincial out-migrants since 1971 have been under the age of 40.

According to Coulombe and Tremblay (2009), interprovincial migrants are also more skilled and better educated than the residents who remain, contributing to a redistribution of human capital across provinces. Serlenga and Shin (2020) find that higher income levels and lower unemployment rates in destination provinces increase inflows, while the opposite in origin provinces encourages outflows. Thus, income and employment opportunities are important drivers of interprovincial migration. Taken together, the evidence suggests that interprovincial migrants tend to be younger adults with higher levels of skills and education who are responsive to economic conditions.

So long, farewell… the number of people leaving B.C. hit a new record — Business Council of British Columbia

In the musical, The Sound of Music , the von Trapp children sing the chorus of the famous song, “So long, farewell,” before a ballroom filled with their father’s assembled guests. One of the children, seven-year-old Marta, then steps forward to sing the next line, “I hate to go and leave t

www.bcbc.com

 

[Kirkhill]

I doubt very much that the railline in PR could handle that increase in traffic. There are several choke points along the route that prevent expansion and the only "loop" to get trains out was recently built on Ridely Island to service the terminals there. Add in a complex traditional territorially claim network in the area, that makes every expansion difficult.

In my way of thinking it doesn't really matter if the rail can't handle that traffic.

Today we are legally allowed to send rail cars of WCS from Bruderheim to Prince Rupert.

At Prince Rupert we are permitted to load 12,500 tonnes of that oil on to barges and tankers. There is a fleet of such vessels available and trading up and down the Inside Passage already.

Those vessels could transport that oil to Cook Inlet, Valdez, Anacortes or even Burrard for transshipment into VLCCs.

Excess costs beyond those occasioned by having our own pipeline could be covered by subsidies resulting from the CO2 taxes on those AI data centres.

And then BC can decide if it wants the pipeline and a few VLCCs going straight out through the Entrance or a larger railway, with more cars and more frequent oil traffic in the Insixe Passage.