CAN-USA 2025 Tariff Strife (split from various pol threads)

[ModlrMike]

Accepting that hope is not a COA, our best hope is that the balance of power in Congress changes on November 3, 2026. A more militant, anti Trump congress would be a real barn-burner as it works to take back it's enshrined powers.

 

[Brad Sallows]

Accepting that hope is not a COA, our best hope is that the balance of power in Congress changes on November 3, 2026. A more militant, anti Trump congress would be a real barn-burner as it works to take back it's enshrined powers.

Our best hope is the case in the courts. As much as people like to crow over Trump's slipping approval numbers, Democrats collectively are slipping more. They seem to be aiming for another "double-down" election cycle*.

(*Losing parties often go through a cycle or two or three convincing themselves that they weren't true enough to their ideology, or just didn't get the message across to voters, or both. Democrats are still visibly fighting for the "20" side of the proverbial "80/20" issues.)

 

[HavokFour]

We might be talking to Brazil again, soon.

Brazil Pushes Trade Deals in Response to Trump, Plans to Relaunch Talks with Canada

Lula government aims to sign treaty with EFTA and conclude talks with UAE this semester

www1.folha.uol.com.br

This may become one of the discussion points.

That would be one hell of a powerhouse, should such a deal happen.

Canada eyes Mercosur trade pact to reduce US reliance, minister says

Mercosur

 

[The Bread Guy]

Torn between here & "Bought & Paid For Media", but put this here given potential trade deal implications.

Another potential bargaining chip PMMC could consider dropping down the line???

U.S. State Department targets Online News Act in human rights report

OTTAWA - The U.S. State Department is taking aim at Canada’s Online News Act in a human rights report that criticizes press freedom in Canada — which experts characterized Thursday

www.thecanadianpressnews.ca

From the State Department report bit about Canada (highlights mine):

... During the year (2024), the Online News Act of 2023 came into force. The law required large digital media platforms pay news businesses when their content appeared on the platform. The law empowered the Canadian Radio-Television and Telecommunications Commission to set mandatory bargaining guidelines between platforms and news businesses and to otherwise enforce and set regulatory guidance for the act, including codes of conduct and eligibility of news businesses to participate, powers which could be used to discriminate against political speech or disfavored independent media outlets ...

They mention the Rebel News court case from late last year, saying, "The organization was one of the few in the country that produced critical reporting on the government’s response to protests of the COVID-19 lockdowns." The report had this to say on media subsidies:

... The public media and majority of private media were substantially dependent on government sources of funding for their activities. Government intervention in the media market favored means of communication that did not diverge from government-suggested bounds of political speech, and government policy and practices often disadvantaged independent media.

The government used a variety of mechanisms to fund public and private sector media in the country, ranging from direct grants and tax credits to mandatory payments and funds collected from broadcasters, streaming services, and news platforms, but distributed or regulated by the government. News organizations faced direct and indirect pressure to conform their political speech in order to gain or maintain access to these funds, leading to self-censorship. Independent news organizations that did not take government funds faced a substantial market disadvantage ...

Only problem with dropping C-18, though, is that media outlets now getting $ via Google will see that disappear.

The good news, though, is that Meta and Google will be able to harvest content & make money off of it without having to pay for it - hurrah!

 

[GR66]

It's been announced that Canada is removing counter-tariffs on some US goods (those that are compliant with CUSMA) and a goodwill gesture to try and move the trade talks forward. Auto, steel and aluminum tariffs will remain.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canada-removing-retaliatory-tariffs-1.7614909

 

[Quirky]

It's been announced that Canada is removing counter-tariffs on some US goods (those that are compliant with CUSMA) and a goodwill gesture to try and move the trade talks forward. Auto, steel and aluminum tariffs will remain.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canada-removing-retaliatory-tariffs-1.7614909

Having all those elbows up will give you a cramp after a while.

 

[brihard]

It's been announced that Canada is removing counter-tariffs on some US goods (those that are compliant with CUSMA) and a goodwill gesture to try and move the trade talks forward. Auto, steel and aluminum tariffs will remain.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canada-removing-retaliatory-tariffs-1.7614909

CUSMA is our vital ground. If we want to keep that we have to honour it. I would not be surprised if Trump threatened to walk away from the CUSMA agreement, though I’m surprised none of the reporters bluntly asked that.

Loss of CUSMA and eating a flat rate tariff would be economically devastating, and Trump would be belligerent enough to do that. This may be part of weathering the Trump storm and improving our trade ties again in future when someone more economically competent is in charge down there.

 

[Remius]

Having all those elbows up will give you a cramp after a while.

Is that what someone told you?

 

[Czech_pivo]

CUSMA is our vital ground. If we want to keep that we have to honour it. I would not be surprised if Trump threatened to walk away from the CUSMA agreement, though I’m surprised none of the reporters bluntly asked that.

Loss of CUSMA and eating a flat rate tariff would be economically devastating, and Trump would be belligerent enough to do that. This may be part of weathering the Trump storm and improving our trade ties again in future when someone more economically competent is in charge down there.

Trump could easily say, 'You know what, we are going to only have USMA going forward, we don't want to deal with those nasty Canadians anymore', and where would that leave us?

 

[brihard]

Trump could easily say, 'You know what, we are going to only have USMA going forward, we don't want to deal with those nasty Canadians anymore', and where would that leave us?

High and dry with 10% baseline plus sectoral, and a crippling recession.

 

[QV]

Mexico’s Sheinbaum says ‘no need’ for bilateral trade deal with Canada - National | Globalnews.ca

'We have the trade deal with the United States, Canada and Mexico... There is no need,' Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum said Wednesday.

globalnews.ca

Earlier this month Mexico rebuffed Canada's attempt at a bi-lateral trade deal...

 

[Czech_pivo]

High and dry with 10% baseline plus sectoral, and a crippling recession.

10%, you're being optimistic. Only UK and Oz have gotten 10%, it could be 15% across the board, with oil/gas maybe, maybe at 0% or 10%.

Putting oil/gas at 0% will stoke, for certain, Alberta (maybe Sask) vs Ontario and the rest of Canada tension, which will in turn create fodder for Trump to use.

 

[Jarnhamar]

#Elbows up


Prime minister says Canada will remove all tariffs on CUSMA-compliant U.S. goods by Sept. 1

U.S. President Donald Trump commended the tariff removal, calling it "nice" and saying he wanted to "be good to Canada."

 

[Quirky]

#Elbows up


Prime minister says Canada will remove all tariffs on CUSMA-compliant U.S. goods by Sept. 1

The liberal chicken dance.

 

[Furniture]

#Elbows up


Prime minister says Canada will remove all tariffs on CUSMA-compliant U.S. goods by Sept. 1

As much as I have mostly liked PMMC, this is a weird about face for the #Elbowsup PM.

Perhaps Europe wasn't as willing to deal with us as some had hoped.

I'd rather look elsewhere, like Asia for partners. I imagine Japan and SK are more willing to work with us than France and Germany. Old biases run deep, and the "new world" is just colonial to the Euro purists.

 

[Czech_pivo]

As much as I have mostly liked PMMC, this is a weird about face for the #Elbowsup PM.

Perhaps Europe wasn't as willing to deal with us as some had hoped.

I'd rather look elsewhere, like Asia for partners. I imagine Japan and SK are more willing to work with us than France and Germany. Old biases run deep, and the "new world" is just colonial to the Euro purists.

No matter where we look for ‘replacing ‘ the US, no one or no combination of places, will be able to replace all of our trade with the US.
Reduce as much as we can, but understand and accept that it will never go below 50-60 of all our trade - geography dictates this.

 

[Halifax Tar]

 

[brihard]

As much as I have mostly liked PMMC, this is a weird about face for the #Elbowsup PM.

Perhaps Europe wasn't as willing to deal with us as some had hoped.

I'd rather look elsewhere, like Asia for partners. I imagine Japan and SK are more willing to work with us than France and Germany. Old biases run deep, and the "new world" is just colonial to the Euro purists.

One factor may be that, with a bunch of other countries having essentially already caved, that leaves us in a materially different and somewhat more isolated position than a few months ago, forcing a reassessment.

We do still have what appears to be the best trade deal with the Americans out of anyone, allowing that there’s some room for debate over whether we or Mexico have the absolute best depending on how CUSMA goods are reckoned. Where the U.S. has arbitrarily slapped trade barriers on literally everybody, retaining an agreement that keeps ours the lowest may be the best achievable outcome.

America has chosen to make its economic bed with old school mercantilist policies, and we don’t have the ability to change that, so we have to adapt. We can still seek trade liberalization with the rest of the world, and hopefully some more global trade flows around the U.S. and to/through Canada instead. Eventually Americans will realize that they’re needlessly paying more for a lot of goods than everyone else due to tariffs and they’ll have their own internal clamor for change. When that happens we’ll be in a position to reassess. For now, CUSMA must be protected, and the reconsiderations thereof kept as advantageous for Canada as possible.

 

[The Bread Guy]

#Elbows up


Prime minister says Canada will remove all tariffs on CUSMA-compliant U.S. goods by Sept. 1

The liberal chicken dance.

Hey, if Toronto Sun's Brian Lilley can back the idea ...

LILLEY: Mark Carney's elbows disappear but he's making the right move

The Prime Minister says he will drop tariffs on many American goods to kickstart trade talks

ca.news.yahoo.com

 

[Brad Sallows]

Eventually Americans will realize that they’re needlessly paying more for a lot of goods than everyone else due to tariffs and they’ll have their own internal clamor for change.

They might not be noticing on the scale required.

From their PoV, the combination of tariffs and tax cuts may be playing out the same way as our carbon taxes and rebates. People notice the pain point (imported goods, fuels) and spend a little less on those, but also find that their total financial position is not as imbalanced as considering only one side (the costs, and not the tax breaks) would suggest. If US domestic producers have been and are able to meet increased demand (which necessarily happens if their exports drop, encouraged by things like "buy Canadian" here), again the pain point is reduced.

The fundamental factor is that consumers adapt, and the US has more room to adapt because of the breadth of its productive capabilities.