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CAN-USA 2025 Tariff Strife (split from various pol threads)

Okay...What???

I've been living under a rock my entire adult life, because I had ABSOLUTELY NO IDEA this was even a thing!

This article is telling me that if I wanted to order a bottle of wine from the winery mentioned, there's a decent chance I actually couldn't, even though we're both Canadian??

If that's true, that's the dumbest f**king thing I've heard since Monday!!



Why is the elimination of these inter-provincial barriers just happening now? Why, after 10 years in power, is this matter just being addressed now? You'd think if it could potentially grow our economy by $200M, they'd have been ontop of it all while ago!?

I'm just speechless...honestly...
Interprovincial also got is none of the most egregious examples. Hell, it even went all the way to the Supreme Court in 2018 and was upheld as a valid exercise of provincial authority. Shows how strong these internal barriers can be.

The labour mobility is a big deal too, opening that up would foster competition.
 
This kind of inflexibility irritates the Americans, and also resulted in Britain walking away from free trade talks:


It's unfortunate, but there will be some pain to some industries to protect the rest of Canada from punitive tariffs.
 
This kind of inflexibility irritates the Americans, and also resulted in Britain walking away from free trade talks:


It's unfortunate, but there will be some pain to some industries to protect the rest of Canada from punitive tariffs.
I have mixed feelings about this. My grandfather was a founding member of the dairy board in Ontario and help install the dairy quota system. Which according to Gramps (he died in 2012 at the young age of 99), the original intention of the quota system and was to protect farmers. Specifically from American Dairy (cheaper and easier but lower quality to produce). However in the last 60 some odd years the number of Ontario dairy farms have shrunk significantly and the cost to get in is ludicrous. I have spoken with my dairy friends (I have helped them out at times with milking and purchased steers from them), many of the younger ones (not that many of them, young being under 50 BTW) realize its a big steep uphill climb to maintain the status quo.

Ironically, I am also friends with Michael Schmidt, raw dairy activist (and anti-supply management). When he was last visiting my farm, we had a lot of discussions about the unintended consequences and basically legal bullying he put up with from Ag Canada.

There are lots of pros and cons to the supply management argument. I do think, no matter what, supply management will be done away with sonner or later.
 
I have mixed feelings about this. My grandfather was a founding member of the dairy board in Ontario and help install the dairy quota system. Which according to Gramps (he died in 2012 at the young age of 99), the original intention of the quota system and was to protect farmers. Specifically from American Dairy (cheaper and easier but lower quality to produce). However in the last 60 some odd years the number of Ontario dairy farms have shrunk significantly and the cost to get in is ludicrous. I have spoken with my dairy friends (I have helped them out at times with milking and purchased steers from them), many of the younger ones (not that many of them, young being under 50 BTW) realize its a big steep uphill climb to maintain the status quo.

Ironically, I am also friends with Michael Schmidt, raw dairy activist (and anti-supply management). When he was last visiting my farm, we had a lot of discussions about the unintended consequences and basically legal bullying he put up with from Ag Canada.

There are lots of pros and cons to the supply management argument. I do think, no matter what, supply management will be done away with sonner or later.

Quebec's 'unique culture' won't last either, for similar reasons, and it will be interesting to see how Trump's vigorous free market philosophy will impact these tottering, centrally controlled, economic structures.
 
I have mixed feelings about this. My grandfather was a founding member of the dairy board in Ontario and help install the dairy quota system. Which according to Gramps (he died in 2012 at the young age of 99), the original intention of the quota system and was to protect farmers. Specifically from American Dairy (cheaper and easier but lower quality to produce). However in the last 60 some odd years the number of Ontario dairy farms have shrunk significantly and the cost to get in is ludicrous. I have spoken with my dairy friends (I have helped them out at times with milking and purchased steers from them), many of the younger ones (not that many of them, young being under 50 BTW) realize its a big steep uphill climb to maintain the status quo.

Ironically, I am also friends with Michael Schmidt, raw dairy activist (and anti-supply management). When he was last visiting my farm, we had a lot of discussions about the unintended consequences and basically legal bullying he put up with from Ag Canada.

There are lots of pros and cons to the supply management argument. I do think, no matter what, supply management will be done away with sonner or later.
The family farm that they were trying to protect is largely dead. The concept setting up 20 head dairy herd to provide a regular paycheque to a small mixed livestock operation is almost unfathomable at this point.


Agreed with the bold- I just wish there was some creativity in finding a soft, long term landing. Find a way to protect as many of the "pro's" as possible while gradually unwinding to mitigate the debt/financial impact. Giving no ground until the moment we break completely and scrap the system is the worst possible path.
 
I've read that bi-lingualism costs upwards of $1B / year. How about French labels in Que and English labels everywhere else. Maybe we save $750M that way.
Labels are not the big money issue here.

Training, testing and translation and bilingual bonus payments.

It needs a big overhaul and smarter way to do this.
 
The family farm that they were trying to protect is largely dead.
No it isn't. A huge chunk of your beef and lamb come from small farm operations (Beef farm less than 200-300 head is small). They may be concentrated in feedlots for finish but they start in typical 30-100 head cow-calf operation in Ontario. Similar to sheep, you have everything from a 20 head operation to up over a few thousand. The advantage of small farms is the family can still work part time or full time OFF farm and get supplemental income (or mainstay income).

The small farm can adapt very quickly and sometimes survive economic hardships (our farm is surviving due to off farm income for the time being).

Hogs, Layersw, meat chickens, turkeys are all usually larger concentrated operations.

Small farms are not dead and they never will be.

They said in 1950s small farms are done, same with the 1960s, 1970s, 1980s, 1990s, 2000s, 2010s.
 
Yea but the bulk of this stuff is provincial legislation/regulation. That’s the point I’m making. From what I’ve read when trying to discern what these interprovincial barriers actually are, it tends to vary across things like product specifications, to professional licensure and trade tickets, to transportation regulations and such.

I’m not saying there’s no federal legislation in play- maybe in some cases there is. But there’s a lot to be gained by provinces identifying regulatory disparities and getting on the same page.

I guess Ontario will be a challenge for another month or so…
For sure. I read somewhere that there are about 140 'exemptions' to the Canada Free Trade Agreement and that the feds recently agreed in principle to eliminate 17 (I don't know if that represents all of the federal exemptions). Unfortunately, I cannot find those links this morning. If nothing else, the federal Importation of Intoxicating Liquors Act comes to mind.

I see greater mobility in goods between provinces an easier nut to crack. Areas such as labour mobility, certificate and government contract access will be tougher. I simply can't see a unilingual English person or company being allowed to operate in Quebec. A friend of ours is a unilingual Ontario-certified veterinarian and relocated to Quebec (military partner). All she had to do was pass an all-French exam and practice in French.
 
Interprovincial also got is none of the most egregious examples. Hell, it even went all the way to the Supreme Court in 2018 and was upheld as a valid exercise of provincial authority. Shows how strong these internal barriers can be.

The labour mobility is a big deal too, opening that up would foster competition.
And if I recall correctly, the lower courts all struck down the provincial trade barriers as unconstitutional. The Supreme Court disagreed with all lower courts.
 
No it isn't. A huge chunk of your beef and lamb come from small farm operations (Beef farm less than 200-300 head is small). They may be concentrated in feedlots for finish but they start in typical 30-100 head cow-calf operation in Ontario. Similar to sheep, you have everything from a 20 head operation to up over a few thousand. The advantage of small farms is the family can still work part time or full time OFF farm and get supplemental income (or mainstay income).

The small farm can adapt very quickly and sometimes survive economic hardships (our farm is surviving due to off farm income for the time being).

Hogs, Layersw, meat chickens, turkeys are all usually larger concentrated operations.

Small farms are not dead and they never will be.

They said in 1950s small farms are done, same with the 1960s, 1970s, 1980s, 1990s, 2000s, 2010s.
Let me clarify- the financially viable, family supporting, small farm is largely dead.
My family has farmed the same land since 1850. I'm not talking out of my ass here. We've lived the shift from the 60's to now, watched the school filled with 400+ farm kids dwindle to under 200.

The lands and operations that once provided for families of 5,6,7,8 now primarily fit somewhere on the scale between
"break even passion project that subsidizes the grocery bill and provides tax advantages" and " profitable side hustle that provides some additional income", and more and more of those operations are disappearing as their land is swallowed into larger and larger financially viable businesses.

That isn't to say that those smaller operations don't play a vital role in our food supply chain- but we're not talking apples to apples with the family farms of the past, or with the commercial operations of today. From a national policy standpoint- failing to acknowledge that will lead to failure to protect them for what they are, and contribute to them continuing to disappear.
 
No it isn't. A huge chunk of your beef and lamb come from small farm operations (Beef farm less than 200-300 head is small). They may be concentrated in feedlots for finish but they start in typical 30-100 head cow-calf operation in Ontario. Similar to sheep, you have everything from a 20 head operation to up over a few thousand. The advantage of small farms is the family can still work part time or full time OFF farm and get supplemental income (or mainstay income).

The small farm can adapt very quickly and sometimes survive economic hardships (our farm is surviving due to off farm income for the time being).

Hogs, Layersw, meat chickens, turkeys are all usually larger concentrated operations.

Small farms are not dead and they never will be.

They said in 1950s small farms are done, same with the 1960s, 1970s, 1980s, 1990s, 2000s, 2010s.
Absolutely. According to StasCan, about 97% of Canadian farms are family owned and operated (2016 I think). Maybe there are some large, corporate feedlots out west, I don't know. As you are well aware, may farms are incorporated for business purposes but that doesn't mean that the offices of the corporation aren't family members.
 
And if I recall correctly, the lower courts all struck down the provincial trade barriers as unconstitutional. The Supreme Court disagreed with all lower courts.
Yup, and once the Supreme Court rules on such a thing, that’s the ball game. SCC doesn’t rule on the wisdom or usefulness of such legislation, that’s not their job. They determine whether such public policy is within the lawful purview of that level of government. So this one goes back to the government and, ultimately if necessary, the voters. The winds have changed and we may hopefully see a bunch of these barriers fall.
 
Absolutely. According to StasCan, about 97% of Canadian farms are family owned and operated (2016 I think). Maybe there are some large, corporate feedlots out west, I don't know. As you are well aware, may farms are incorporated for business purposes but that doesn't mean that the offices of the corporation aren't family members.
20th century 100-200 acre family farm =/= 21st century financially viable farm operation owned by a family.

"In 2021, farms with a total land area of 2,240 acres and over accounted for only 8.9% of the total number of farms in Canada and contributed 37.3%($32.5 billion) of Canada’s total operating revenues (Chen and Clark 2023). ... By contrast, farms with a total land area of under 240 acres accounted for over half (52.3%) of the total farms in Canada in 2021 (Figure2), and contributed around one-quarter of Canada’s total operating revenues (24.9%; $21.6 billion)"

 
Yep. If you want to practice forestry in B.C., Alberta and some other provinces, you have to be a Registered Professional Forester in that province. You’re a RPF from another province? You’re going to have apply, mentor and write the exam again in the new province. I’m sure that’s the same for many other professions as well.

Meanwhile, in other provinces like Manitoba, you just have to meet your employer’s requirements. If you go into business for yourself, you can just hang a shingle and call yourself a forester.
Seeing as how this is my profession I'll add a bit more. For most provinces there is a practical application period between applying to the provincial registration body before your write your exam that usually means you have 1-2 years experience + educational requirements. Differences in professional obligations vary a lot between provinces...
  • an Registered Professional Forester (RPF) in BC is legally liable for their calls and certain roles legally require the designation to practice. Folks have gone to jail in BC for professional fraud within the profession.
  • in Alberta you are required to register with the professional college to practice but it's not role binding on what jobs you can do as much (RPF, RPFT, P.Ag all overlap a ot)
  • In Ontario its a requirement to have an RPF sign off on certain submissions (mostly management plans) but most operations do not require the designation.
If you are transferring from one province to another, as an already recognized professional that window is generally waived. Not all provinces have the professional college either so it varies significantly around the country.

This is not all bad as there are differences in the provincial legislation between working in Ontario vs. BC vs. Alberta and the employment market is also very different. I still struggle to wrap my mind around southern Ontario hardwood forest management but in Alberta I might be working for an oil and gas company dealing with surface rights....all within the same profession.

Frankly the system I prefer the most is the Ontario college where they have broken down the profession to a list of 27 competencies. If you graduate from a nationally accredited college program you get credit for 14 subjects...a university program gives you all 27. If you attend schooling in a related field (i.e. Biology) and have some work experience in the field you may fit somewhere between the two. The advantage of this system though is it is about 1) competency in the field - achieved through either education or experience - and 2) and is not tied directly to a single school's curriculum and 3) allows for professional progression/entry of more folks than other provinces allow.
 
20th century 100-200 acre family farm =/= 21st century financially viable farm operation owned by a family.

"In 2021, farms with a total land area of 2,240 acres and over accounted for only 8.9% of the total number of farms in Canada and contributed 37.3%($32.5 billion) of Canada’s total operating revenues (Chen and Clark 2023). ... By contrast, farms with a total land area of under 240 acres accounted for over half (52.3%) of the total farms in Canada in 2021 (Figure2), and contributed around one-quarter of Canada’s total operating revenues (24.9%; $21.6 billion)"

I don't think many are arguing that farming is as profitable as it once was or that in many cases, off-farm income is required. I don't know how data is calculated, or how things operate out west, but in Ontario, it seems that it is increasingly common to lease land for farming. We leased most of our land to a farmer who, himself owned about 200 acres but he farmed about 1200 in the area. We leased it to him for less than the going rate; we primarily wanted the reduced property tax rate. Primarily, it seems the only farms that are owned by large corporations were purchased for other uses (developers, etc.) and are simply in a holding pattern until whatever conditions are right.

Then there is New Brunswick, which seems to be divided between two corporations.
 
This kind of inflexibility irritates the Americans, and also resulted in Britain walking away from free trade talks:


It's unfortunate, but there will be some pain to some industries to protect the rest of Canada from punitive tariffs.
They may be different than other countries or not to the same extent, but, the US has restrictions or limitations on the movement of goods, services and labour between states. They just don't like other nations' protections. It is similar to the myth that their agricultural sector isn't subsidized.
 
Team Canada Quebec

Time for Quebec to join Canada. If they do not then say goodby to 2025-26 $13.6 billion, up a quarter billion from 2024-25 in annual equalization payments. This is included in the 2025-26 $29.3 billion through major transfers to Quebec.

Look at the savings. Nothing would have to be translated from English, you would not have to have a language profile for promotion, etc, etc.

Rifleman62:: If that's what Quebec wants, then analyze how much of the equalization payments Quebec gets from all sources of the oil and gas industry and deduct that from the payments. There is "no socially acceptability " reason to give Quebec dirty money.
Y.F Blanchet says he strongly opposes ANY pipeline from Western Canada through Quebec to the the Atlantic...Because it would sacrifice the prosperity and undermine the sovereignty of Quebec.



 
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