CAN-USA Tariff Strife (split from various pol threads)

[HavokFour]

That would be one hell of a powerhouse, should such a deal happen.

Canada eyes Mercosur trade pact to reduce US reliance, minister says

Mercosur

 

[Genetk44]

Not sure how much the cutting head on a combine costs, but farmers would need to buy a cutter head for other crops if they only had a corn head…

I asked my buddy in Indiana…a brand new cutting head costs US$100K+ but a good used one is about $45K. He has one each for soyabean and corn….he can switch them out in 2-3 minutes.

 

[RangerRay]

PM Harper comes out and says we should diversify trade away from the US. Admits it’s exact opposite advice he would have given a year ago. Carney PMO apparently sought his advice.

Harper says Carney team sought his trade advice, suggests looking…

National Newswatch: Canada's most comprehensive site for political news and views.

nationalnewswatch.com

 

[Remius]

PM Harper comes out and says we should diversify trade away from the US. Admits it’s exact opposite advice he would have given a year ago. Carney PMO apparently sought his advice.

Harper says Carney team sought his trade advice, suggests looking…

National Newswatch: Canada's most comprehensive site for political news and views.

nationalnewswatch.com

Even he sees the writing on the wall.

 

[brihard]

The U.S. Federal Court of Appeals is currently hearing the U.S. Government appeal of the earlier U.S. Court of International Trafe ruling striking down Trump’s unilaterally imposed ‘emergency’ tariffs, including the ones on Canada that are slated to increase to 35%. That decision was administratively stayed pending appeal, and that’s the appeal being heard right now. If the government doesn’t win this appeal, good chance the lower court decision striking down the tariffs goes into effect and the tariffs disappear, unless therems another stay pending SCOTUS appeal- and it’s not a given that SCOTUS would hear it.

This is fundamentally a question of whether the president has the tariff authority he claims, or whether the constitutional reservation of taxation powers to Congress is what matters here.

A decision is not expected today but hopefully it’s not long. A loss by the government will pull the rug out from under a lot of Trump’s current trade policy- another reason Canada shouldn’t have yeh to sign a bad trade deal if Trump’s tariffs prove illegal.

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www.cnbc.com

 

[ModlrMike]

This presumes that the administration will actually abide by the decision. Current evidence suggests the opposite.

 

[Czech_pivo]

The U.S. Federal Court of Appeals is currently hearing the U.S. Government appeal of the earlier U.S. Court of International Trafe ruling striking down Trump’s unilaterally imposed ‘emergency’ tariffs, including the ones on Canada that are slated to increase to 35%. That decision was administratively stayed pending appeal, and that’s the appeal being heard right now. If the government doesn’t win this appeal, good chance the lower court decision striking down the tariffs goes into effect and the tariffs disappear, unless therems another stay pending SCOTUS appeal- and it’s not a given that SCOTUS would hear it.

This is fundamentally a question of whether the president has the tariff authority he claims, or whether the constitutional reservation of taxation powers to Congress is what matters here.

A decision is not expected today but hopefully it’s not long. A loss by the government will pull the rug out from under a lot of Trump’s current trade policy- another reason Canada shouldn’t have yeh to sign a bad trade deal if Trump’s tariffs prove illegal.

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www.cnbc.com

A loss on this by the WH would result in this going to the Supreme Court and them most likely ruling before the end of September

 

[Remius]

https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/big-3-tariff-impact-1.7597859

Effects finally hitting home…

 

[QV]

This presumes that the administration will actually abide by the decision. Current evidence suggests the opposite.

What evidence do you have this administration doesn't abide by court decisions? Taking lower court decisions to the next level of appeal is a legal mechanism.

 

[Kirkhill]

Canada is stuck with 35pc. The EU is on 15pc. Switzerland is on 39pc while India is on 25pc, with the rest of the world somewhere between those levels.

Trump has handed Britain a Brexit dividend – now let’s exploit it

The UK’s trade deal with America is the best in the world. Starmer must use this to boost investment

www.telegraph.co.uk

The basic rate of 15 per cent that will now be charged on most European goods entering the US was perhaps not coincidentally the same rate that Trump had extracted from Japan in a similar deal last week. It is the same rate that could, pending an announced review, become a new general norm in US foreign trade relations. It is also substantially higher than the less than 2 per cent effective rate that the US charged the EU before Trump returned to office.

Trump is winning his trade war. Only the Left-wing media refuses to admit it

The sneering reaction to his agreement with the EU fails to capture the upsides of his approach

www.telegraph.co.uk

I just did a fast check of exchange rate histories.

The market has regularly revalued currencies by more that 15% within the last 10 years. On Aug 10 2024 the Japanese Yen was trading at .0062 of a USD. That is its 5 year low. Currently it is trading at .0068. Its 5 year high is December 26 2020 when it traded at .0097. On that date the American consumers were paying 52% more for Japanese goods than they were on Aug 10 of last year, and 42% more than they are now. Adding 15% to the current .0068 level only brings the cost of Japanese imports to the US up to .0078 or the level last seen due solely to market exchange rates in August 2023. It was consistently above that for years prior.

The Euro is currently trading at 1.16 to the USD. The 5 year low is .97 and the high is 1.21. The hi-lo difference is 25%. The tariff is 15%.

The CAD is currently trading at .73 USD to the CAD. The 5 year low is 0.56 (Dec 21, 2024) and the high is .83. Difference is 43%.
If I go back a little farther to the Harper era, coming out of the Chretien-Martin era when the rate was as low as .63, the rate was allowed to rise to 1.07. That swing was 70%.
Our tariff is assessed at 35%.

I don't deny that these tariffs hurt. I do deny that they are economy killers. The market itself provides, and manages, much greater volatility.

The difference is that Donald has taken some of that volatility into his own hands and normalized its use in pursuit of government objectives. He has added.

And the markets are reacting accordingly. Which is to say they are not over-reacting. Unlike some politicians.

Politicians require stability a lot more than markets do. Markets are quite happy with a bit of chaos. That used to be the difference between London and Paris - the Stock Exchange versus the dirigistes.

Teddy Roosevelt believed in talking softly and carrying a big stick. He had two of them that he brandished comfortably - the White Fleet and tariffs.

 

[Navy_Pete]

What evidence do you have this administration doesn't abide by court decisions? Taking lower court decisions to the next level of appeal is a legal mechanism.

Aside from them ignoring a number of court injunctions on the deportations?

 

[Colin Parkinson]

Its my personal opinion (that many MDs share) zero is the safe amount of canola to consume.

I wouldn't be quick to quote things from heartandstroke. Its a deep rabbit hole but there are many cardiologist fed up with recommendations by H and S.

Its a topic better to split off. Myself, being a 90-95% carnivore and I frequently fast 24-48 hours, I have very "unconventional" views and not the least bit interested in sharing them here.

We had our daughter on a carnivore diet for a year after her diagnose, because pretty much everything was causing a reaction. We did take great care in ensuring she took supplements. Over the last few years we have been slowly reintroducing foods to her diet as her system has repaired itself.

 

[PPCLI Guy]

What evidence do you have this administration doesn't abide by court decisions? Taking lower court decisions to the next level of appeal is a legal mechanism.

What order? Trump team ignoring 1 in 3 major judicial rulings against them, analysis finds

Trump versus the judiciary​

Trump officials accused of defying 1 in 3 judges who ruled against him​

For counterpoint

Donald Trump is one of the most law-abiding presidents in American history, says Mark Levin​

 

[daftandbarmy]

Elbows up?

Anxiety up, more like...

Recap Week ending August 1, 2025 – As Canada awaits a breakthrough in stalled US trade negotiations, public anxiety has risen. A Nanos report shows economic concerns now rival US-Canada relations as the nation’s top issue. Consumer confidence remains stagnant, with “uncertainty” the only certainty amid tense talks. Meanwhile, evolving public attitudes toward defence spending and America suggest a complex recalibration of Canada’s priorities. Canadians appear apprehensive, yet watchful—eyes fixed on Washington, wallets gripped at home.

Jobs/economy and Trump/US relations now tied as the top national issue of concern. (Nanos) – Nanos Research

nanos.co

 

[lenaitch]

"Donald Trump is One of the Most Law-Abiding Presidents in American History"

Except for the whole convicted felon thing; although that did happen between presidencies.

Doesn't say might about US presidents.

 

[Remius]

Canada’s economy is showing ‘resilience’ against U.S. tariffs. Why?

“Some resilience” — those were the two words Bank of Canada governor Tiff Macklem used last week to describe how the Canadian economy is holding up under the weight of U.S. tariffs.

www.ctvnews.ca

Interesting. Need to keep diversifying trade and break down internal barriers.

 

[The Bread Guy]

What order? Trump team ignoring 1 in 3 major judicial rulings against them, analysis finds

Trump versus the judiciary​

Trump officials accused of defying 1 in 3 judges who ruled against him​

For counterpoint

Donald Trump is one of the most law-abiding presidents in American history, says Mark Levin​

There you go again, getting all facty and ruining the narrative

 

[Quirky]

Need to keep diversifying trade and break down internal barriers.

This needs to happen regardless of what happens with the Americans.

 

[RangerRay]

Canada’s economy is showing ‘resilience’ against U.S. tariffs. Why?

“Some resilience” — those were the two words Bank of Canada governor Tiff Macklem used last week to describe how the Canadian economy is holding up under the weight of U.S. tariffs.

www.ctvnews.ca

Interesting. Need to keep diversifying trade and break down internal barriers.

Yep. But that may require the slaughter of some sacred cows.

 

[The Bread Guy]

Yep. But that may require the slaughter of some sacred cows.

I'll take "Clever Allusions to Big Dairy for $400, Alex"