CAN-USA Tariff Strife (split from various pol threads)

[Remius]

Just out on Truth social and picket up on P&P by David Cochrane during his panel as breaking news.

25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico as of 20 Jan.

Watch your RRSPs everyone…

 

[brihard]

World News – Top International Stories Today – CTV News

Get the latest news on the Israel-Hamas war and the war between Russia and Ukraine as well as top international stories and videos from Asia, Africa, Europe, the Middle East and the Americas.

www.ctvnews.ca

If this happens it’ll be economically disastrous.

 

[SeaKingTacco]

World News – Top International Stories Today – CTV News

Get the latest news on the Israel-Hamas war and the war between Russia and Ukraine as well as top international stories and videos from Asia, Africa, Europe, the Middle East and the Americas.

www.ctvnews.ca

If this happens it’ll be economically disastrous.

For everyone, including the US.

 

[Remius]

Inflation is back on menu…

 

[brihard]

Our oil is already more expensive to produce and more expensive to sell. I can’t imagine a 25% tariff on our oil being exported to the U.S. would be great for our energy sector.

Watch your RRSPs everyone…

I never worry about my investments day by day, or even month by month- but for sure out of curiosity I’ll see how the markets respond to this announcement.

 

[Remius]

Our oil is already more expensive to produce and more expensive to sell. I can’t imagine a 25% tariff on our oil being exported to the U.S. would be great for our energy sector.


I never worry about my investments day by day, or even month by month- but for sure out of curiosity I’ll see how the markets respond to this announcement.

Alberta was hoping for a carve out. That’s going to hurt.

Trudeau absolutely needs to call a first minister’s conference. Best things leaders can do is just not respond but come with a plan.

 

[MJP]

Our oil is already more expensive to produce and more expensive to sell. I can’t imagine a 25% tariff on our oil being exported to the U.S. would be great for our energy sector.


I never worry about my investments day by day, or even month by month- but for sure out of curiosity I’ll see how the markets respond to this announcement.

Which is why I wish we would have put more emphasis on Canadian resource extraction like refineries and LNG hubs. We can smartly extract resources despite what the anti-pipeline folks think. We are a rich country afraid to use our resources.

 

[brihard]

Which is why I wish we would have put more emphasis on Canadian resource extraction like refineries and LNG hubs. We can smartly extract resources despite what the anti-pipeline folks think. We are a rich country afraid to use our resources.

Agreed. I’ve always been in favour of trying to get more of the value added supply chain in country. Unfortunately it’s an inescapable reality that a lot of Canadian oil is very expensive to extract and process, and needs high spot prices to remain viable. If these tariffs happen… Ouch.

On the plus side, if the economy gets wrecked by American tariffs, that should be good for CAF recruiting. And it’s easier to hit 2% of GDP in defence spending if you shrink the denominator.

 

[TangoTwoBravo]

If I am reading the article correctly, this tariff is punishment for our having a border that allows a flow of drugs and illegal migrants into the US. Reasoning will probably not work here, so maybe some token concessions to allow all to save face?

 

[Remius]

If I am reading the article correctly, this tariff is punishment for our having a border that allows a flow of drugs and illegal migrants into the US. Reasoning will probably not work here, so maybe some token concessions to allow all to save face?

I’m not sure where the money will come from but CBSA and RCMP Federal Policing are going to need some serious expansion. There was already talk of Border Integrity looking at some growth in the wake of the election (ie asylum seekers headed this way).

Going to be a lot of phones ringing all over the place for the next little while.

 

[Kirkhill]

Canada Exports to United States was US$439.6 Billion during 2023, according to the United Nations COMTRADE database on international trade.

25% of 440 BUSD = 110 BUSD = 155 BCAD

Canadian GDP = 2.14 TrUSD = 3.03 TrCAD
1% of GDP = 30 BCAD
2% of GDP = 60 BCAD
3% of GDP = 90 BCAD
4% of GDP = 120 BCAD
5% of GDP = 150 BCAD

Opening bids ladies and gentlemen.

PS - Canadian Dairy Industry - 8.7 BCAD

In 2023, Canada exported 81% of its crude oil to the United States, which was valued at $124 billion. This was a record high for Canadian crude oil exports, and represented 16% of Canada's total export value

In 2022, Canada exported natural gas worth CAN$24.6 billion to the U.S.¹

In 2023, the value of electricity exports from the United States to Canada was $1.2 billion, an increase of $454.5 million from the previous year. In contrast, the value of power sales from Canada to the United States was $3.2 billion, a decrease of nearly 30% from 2022

...

How much is that pipeline to Churchill worth to you now?
How about 3% of GDP to Defence?
Access to AUKUS Pillar 2?

 

[brihard]

I’m not sure where the money will come from but CBSA and RCMP Federal Policing are going to need some serious expansion. There was already talk of Border Integrity looking at some growth in the wake of the election (ie asylum seekers headed this way).

Going to be a lot of phones ringing all over the place for the next little while.

IBET’s going to be growing for sure, at the expense of the transnational organized crime unit.

I’m teaching on our Federal Investigations course this week and last, we’ve got members and staff from across the country. Lots of rumbling already of federal units generally having been told to be prepared to cough up significant bodies for border work, particularly with the impending flood of asylum seekers in Quebec.

Kinda rich for the Americans to be shitting U.S. U.S. for people traveling south given their history, and imminent future repetition, of driving massive numbers of people north.

By all means let’s beef up border enforcement, and go hard against human smugglers on our side- but included in that, the U.S. can keep and deal with anyone we catch trying to cross northbound.

 

[Cloud Cover]

Cleaning up drugs and illegal immigration isn’t just a border issue. It’s pretty much every street, avenue, school, campus, institution, prison, business and regional district. Done ethically and not recklessly we can do this but it will take years. It starts with attitude and especially determination. Now we have no choice so hopefully this country develops a pragmatic and results orientated strategy to deal with it.

 

[rmc_wannabe]

So did no one mention to Trump that we supply most of the lithium, cobalt, and other crucial raw materials they need to feed their manufacturing?

The tariffs aren't paid by the suppliers, but by the manufacturers importing the goods under tariff. They can't avoid tariffs by seeking American suppliers that don't exist for those materials. This is going to make American made goods even more expensive.

For someone with a supposed business acumen, this is a terrible economic move.

 

[McG]

This is going to hurt the economy on both sides of the border.

 

[Good2Golf]

Watch your RRSPs everyone…

…and TFSAs, etc.

I’m good, I have a metric boatload of US funds in my portfolio and a chunk of crypto in a non-registered wallet. Trudeau’s increased Capital Gains Tax notwithstanding, I already have seen a stupid increase in my investment’s ROI since the election…my view of other lands doesn’t overshadow my awareness of my own backyard so to speak and take action to ensure my future that doesn’t depend on cultish faith in a person’s here at home.

 

[dimsum]

So did no one mention to Trump that we supply most of the lithium, cobalt, and other crucial raw materials they need to feed their manufacturing?

You mean all of the economists? But hey, as Don Jr. says, he wants a cabinet who isn’t as smart as he is. As opposed to, you know, SMEs to advise the President.

The tariffs aren't paid by the suppliers, but by the manufacturers importing the goods under tariff. They can't avoid tariffs by seeking American suppliers that don't exist for those materials. This is going to make American made goods even more expensive.

For someone with a supposed business acumen, this is a terrible economic move.

Dude somehow managed to bankrupt a casino, and was hawking Bibles and shoes in the past few months. “Business acumen” is not his strong suit.

 

[Humphrey Bogart]

…and TFSAs, etc.

I’m good, I have a metric boatload of US funds in my portfolio and a chunk of crypto in an non-registered wallet. Trudeau’s increased Capital Gains Tax notwithstanding, I already have seen a stupid increase in my investment’s ROI since the election…my view of other lands doesn’t overshadow my awareness of my own backyard so to speak and take action to ensure my future that doesn’t depend on cultish faith in a person’s here at home.

Diversification, diversification, diversification

The tariff threat is just a weapon. It's a tool the US Administration is going to use to achieve a policy aim.

Border Security, Drugs, Organized Crime, Immigration, Intelligence, Defence Spending, etc. These can all be captured under a big tent known as 'National Security'. The Americans want us to take National Security seriously because they believe that they are impacted by us.

I believe there is a lot of validity to it:

Port of Montreal: a long history of crime—and a lack of adequate responses

Organized crime and the inability on the part of elected leaders and bureaucrats to take the issue seriously has made Canada the source for stolen vehicle used car lots around the Middle East and Africa.

www.hilltimes.com

Port of Montreal: a long history of crime—and a lack of adequate responses​

Organized crime and the inability on the part of elected leaders and bureaucrats to take the issue seriously has made Canada the source for stolen vehicle used car lots around the Middle East and Africa.​

OTTAWA—There’s no mystery about what’s going on in Canada’s large ports, including Montreal.

Despite the Trudeau government’s convening of national leaders in Ottawa on Feb. 8 to explore the problem, and all the earnest discussion and hand-wringing about the export of tens of thousands of stolen cars, the cause of this crime-fest has been studied, documented, and made clear to governments as far back as you want to look.

​

What has made Canada the source for stolen vehicle used car lots around the Middle East and Africa is organized crime and the inability—or unwillingness—on the part of elected leaders and the bureaucrats who work for them to take the issue seriously for years.

Article is behind a paywall but the tidbit from the end of the article is on point:

The result has been an explosion of thefts, particularly in Ontario and Quebec. Across Canada, some 90,000 cars are being stolen per year now, with many of them going overseas. This adds $1-billion to Canadians’ insurance bill.

It’s a classic case of government inertia and official indifference. And finally doing something about it will require a lot more than gathering people around a table in Ottawa to talk it over.

Then there is the ever persistent labour disruptions that seem to be a weekly occurrence now. One CEO has stated quite clearly what the threats are to this Country from those disruptions:

Opinion: We must do something about the frequent labour disruptions harming Canada

The labour dispute at B.C. ports follows one at the Port of Montreal – the third in four years. Canadian labour instability has become a chronic problem

www.theglobeandmail.com

These are self-inflicted harm to our supply chains. A work stoppage of any duration or even the threat of a work stoppage at a port, major freight railway or other cargo handler causes serious disruption to Canada’s supply chains and harms the country’s reputation as a stable, dependable trading partner. The adverse impacts have ripple effects beyond the supply chain and endure beyond the work stoppage itself.

Increasingly, Canada’s message to the world is not one of efficiency, affordability and reliability. Lately, and repeatedly, it’s been the opposite: Disruptions. Delays. Diversions.

Frequent and continual labour disruptions compound the damage. The dispute at the Port of Montreal is the third in four years. Canadian labour instability has become a chronic problem. The pattern of disruption is forcing global shipping companies to look elsewhere and ship through alternative U.S. ports. They have choices and those shippers are choosing less efficient, more expensive routes simply because Canada has become unreliable and unpredictable. Added costs get passed on to Canadian consumers, unnecessarily driving up the cost of living.

We also have a huge immigration issue which is both a drag on our productivity and a massive suck on Govt coffers. The optics of our Govt's policies also look terrible to our Southern Neighbors:

Canada's productivity 'emergency' and the role newcomers play

The Financial Post's Naimul Karim breaks down the link between immigration and Canada's struggling productivity. Find out more.

financialpost.com

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/illegal-migration-canada-united-states-1.7320623

All things considered we need a massive shift of attitude, culture and ideas in Ottawa to dig us out of the hole we have dug ourselves. The question is, looking at our Govt budget, how would you solve these issues?

Here is a nice diagram that breaks down where the money is going:



Govt Revenues = $498 Billion
Deficit = $40 Billion
Spending = $545 Billion
Public Debt Charges = $54 Billion

The amount we are paying to service our debt is basically the same amount we are paying in Healthcare Transfer Payments.

We are paying almost the same amount I'm "Other Transfer Payments" aka Corruption/Pork & Barrel Schemes as we are spending on Operating Expenses.

Operating Expenses: $123 Billion
Other Transfer Payments: $102 Billion

Want to save money, run a balanced budget and reallocate towards programs we want and need?

Cancel the $102 billion in "Other transfer payments". That's money going to Ukraine, the UN, WEF, Govt insiders, and other corruption schemes of this Government.

 

[Good2Golf]

The tariff threat is just a weapon. It's a tool the US Administration is going to use to achieve a policy aim.

Border Security, Drugs, Organized Crime, Immigration, Intelligence, Defence Spending, etc. These can all be captured under a big tent known as 'National Security'. The Americans want us to take National Security seriously because they believe that they are impacted by us.

Yup. Many Canadians are taking Trump’s threatened tariffs as an afront to Canadians personally, and not appreciating that it’s a signal to Canada to take continental security seriously…which has been noted with a few examples (foreign political and fiscal interference, drugs, criminal exportation, etc.) is an undeniable fact.

Canada is getting called up on the carpet by America, with the one lever that will work…money, because Lord knows, Canada writ large, has no shame…

 

[dimsum]

One of the best comments about this has been “he’s like that kid who’s playing Street Fighter and just figured out how to Sonic Boom consistently, so he only does that.”