CAN-USA Tariff Strife (split from various pol threads)

[Colin Parkinson]

Diversification, diversification, diversification

The tariff threat is just a weapon. It's a tool the US Administration is going to use to achieve a policy aim.

Border Security, Drugs, Organized Crime, Immigration, Intelligence, Defence Spending, etc. These can all be captured under a big tent known as 'National Security'. The Americans want us to take National Security seriously because they believe that they are impacted by us.

I believe there is a lot of validity to it:

Port of Montreal: a long history of crime—and a lack of adequate responses

Organized crime and the inability on the part of elected leaders and bureaucrats to take the issue seriously has made Canada the source for stolen vehicle used car lots around the Middle East and Africa.

www.hilltimes.com

Article is behind a paywall but the tidbit from the end of the article is on point:

So a port strike in Quebec should help with the car theft problem?

 

[brihard]

And given the email we just got it doesn’t look promising without pissing off a lot of people in the process.

I can think of some business lines that are gonna read that email and pucker a bit. I can also think of a lot of PONTIs who absolutely will not be but very much should be affected.

 

[Humphrey Bogart]

Any infrastructure investment would be good at this point. And tie it to defence. Building functional armouries and permanent installations up north to allow 365 day coverage up north would be an easy way. It’s all needed and wanted and infrastructure building can stimulate economies

Western Energy Corridor — Home Page

www.westernenergycorridor.ca

I want development and I want exploration & exploitation.

 

[Remius]

Rambling on about stuff that is in my orbit but I know here at work they’ve been talking about creating a federal police academy for some time. Not sure why a joint facility to house that and most of 33 CBG NCR Units.

Could have shared ranges, gym/parade square, classroom space etc.

Two birds and one stone on helping to reach 2% and increasing commitment to whatever immigration and drug issues (real or imagined) that Trump wants.

 

[Remius]

Western Energy Corridor — Home Page

www.westernenergycorridor.ca

I want development and I want exploration & exploitation.

No reason why military installations up north can’t support that

 

[Remius]

I can think of some business lines that are gonna read that email and pucker a bit. I can also think of a lot of PONTIs who absolutely will not be but very much should be affected.

Absolutely. I know we could easily merge a few teams here. Hold overs from when national merged with us but still do their own thing.

 

[Humphrey Bogart]

No reason why military installations up north can’t support that

Which is what would need to happen before any commercial development happens.

Almost all major Nation building projects originally started with Military imperatives.

 

[The Bread Guy]

... I saw a trump Surrogate state that Canada has decriminalize all sorts of hard drugs. Not exactly the truth of that matter but that’s what they are selling to their audience ...

Not to mention the difference in tariffs being threatened compared to, say, China (10%), which DJT's said is a bad player.

Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump)

I have had many talks with China about the massive amounts of drugs, in particular Fentanyl, being sent into the United States – But to no avail. Representatives of China told me that they would institute their maximum penalty, that of death, for any drug dealers caught doing this but...

truthsocial.com

 

[Remius]

Not to mention the difference in tariffs being threatened compared to, say, China (10%), which DJT's said is a bad player.

Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump)

I have had many talks with China about the massive amounts of drugs, in particular Fentanyl, being sent into the United States – But to no avail. Representatives of China told me that they would institute their maximum penalty, that of death, for any drug dealers caught doing this but...

truthsocial.com

I believe it’s 10% more than what is already happening so they would be at 60% or something like that

 

[Remius]

Looks like Mexican officials have said they could reciprocate tariffs.

I hope our government keeps quiet and doesn’t litigate this in public. Or stay diplomatic about it.

I’ll likely be disappointed…

 

[Good2Golf]

hope our government keeps quiet and doesn’t litigate this in public. Or stay diplomatic about it.

I’ll likely be di

GAC typing the retaliation Xeet as we speak…

 

[Remius]

So a port strike in Quebec should help with the car theft problem?

in an odd turn of events no one is stealing EVs. The countries cars get shipped to can’t support EVs since they don’t have the infrastructure for it. So they don’t want them…

 

[Remius]

GAC typing the retaliation Xeet as we speak…
View attachment 89368

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/trudeau-meet-with-premiers-trump-tariffs-1.7393419

So far I like that type of response.

 

[Good2Golf]

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/trudeau-meet-with-premiers-trump-tariffs-1.7393419

So far I like that type of response.

Also good to see that Doug Ford isn’t shy getting out the gates early on signaling his disappointment about the potential business impact of Trump’s planned tariffs…Ontario alone trades $0.5T with the US…some Governors will take that to heart, no doubt.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/ford-trump-tariffs-canada-reaction-1.7393414

 

[Kirkhill]

My suggestions for Trudeau's To Do List.

25% of US Trade is 155 BCAD.

Trump's shortfall.

Defence Deficit (delta between current 1% and new target of 3%) = 60 BCAD

Where do we find an extra 60 BCAD?

Reallocate Trudeau's Bureaucrats and Consultants - if not to DND then to Public Safety and Emergency Preparedness.

Trudeau balloons bureaucracy by 42 per cent, adds 108,000 employees

The feds hired more than 10,000 bureaucrats last year. That means Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has hired 108,793 federal employees since taking power, according to Treasury Board data.

www.taxpayer.com

The cost of the federal payroll hit $67.4 billion in 2023, a record high, according to a report from the Parliamentary Budget Officer, Ottawa’s independent, non-partisan budget watchdog.

That’s a 68 per cent increase over 2016, when the federal payroll sat at 40.2 billion.

Meanwhile, despite the bureaucratic hiring spree, spending on consultants has also skyrocketed under the Trudeau government. Consultant spending now sits at $21.6 billion annually.

...

Border and Immigration issues - policy shift to continue
Harden the Ports of Vancouver and Prince Rupert - may require more automation (talk to unions)
Cut ties with the CCP

....

Sell Coal, Oil and Gas - lots of First Nations support and the Crows Nest Pass just voted to open a new coal mine
Lift Moratorium on West Coast Tankers
Invest in the Western Energy Corridor from Prince George to Churchill - same rationale as the Rideau Canal and the Trent-Severn Waterway - bypass the US with interior lines of communication.

Trudeau has been beating the WEF drum on resets and greenery which Trump has been fighting. Trump sees that agenda as part of the problem and targeting US workers, their jobs and cheap energy.

To make matters worse Trudeau has been criticizing the Americans for not being green enough while financing his government by selling oil and gas to the US. Hypocrisy while impoverishing America. Trump doesn't need Canadian Hydrocarbons. He has enough of those of his own. Why should he have to buy Canadian Hydrocarbons AND pay to secure Canada while not getting any benefit from it?

He is shutting off the taps and telling Junior it is time to stop attending protests and get a job. Welcome to the real world.

...

Spend the money already in the budget, including the money in escrow that has been delayed from previous years.
Place ammunition orders immediately
Buy GM Defence vehicles
Kit out six battalions for Arctic Warfare (2 Brigades (-) = 4x Light/Abn Bns and 2x ISR Bns) for operations with 11th Abn Div.

Kit out three battalions and three armoured regiments for Europe.

....

Take a walk in the snow...

 

[Brad Sallows]

Broad tariffs set at 25% are likely to go away without Canada and Mexico having to panic.

Tariffs are effectively a sales tax charged at a particular point in the flow of goods, and thus a cost which ultimately is borne by consumers. That includes all enterprises using goods as inputs. Retail prices on everything downstream of those inputs are affected. Economists already picked apart the impact of tariffs on steel alone and showed that it was likely hurting more US interests than the steel interests which were the beneficiaries. Expect more of that, amplified. The tariffs will militate against the promises to cut costs of living.

I am curious to see how energy costs might be affected. There will be price floors for Canadian supplies, but I suspect the US still absolutely needs those supplies to prevent shortages and outages. In principle some US suppliers could lift their own prices a little closer to the Canadian floor and still not suffer a crimp in sales.

The tariffs are a bargaining threat. I am among those who will look for some political deals to be made in areas not necessarily related to trade (mostly in the realm of improving US and collective security) in exchange for dropping tariffs. Those are kinds of costs which will truly be borne by foreigners.

 

[Kirkhill]

Border and Immigration issues - policy shift to continue

Miller to propose changes to immigration and asylum

Announcement follows significant cut to the targeted number of permanent residents admitted to Canada in the next two years.

nationalpost.com

OTTAWA — Immigration Minister Marc Miller says further reforms to Canada’s immigration and asylum systems will be proposed in the coming weeks.

This comes on the heels of a significant cut to the targeted number of permanent residents admitted to Canada in the next two years, and tighter rules around temporary worker permits.

Statistics provided by Canadian officials show the average wait time to process refugee and asylum claims is around 44 months.

...

“It is not a right to become a permanent resident. It is not a right to become a Canadian citizen, otherwise you dilute the value of it. That’s something I firmly believe in,” Miller said. “It doesn’t mean at the same time that you treat people unfairly, and those that have undertaken in their own visas that they will leave at the end of this obviously have to respect that.”

Miller added there are nuances to the issue, which is why there is a target to draw 40 per cent of new permanent residents from people already in Canada.

There were nearly 250,000 refugee claims that need to be decided as of the end of September. In that same time frame, 48,000 asylum claims had been processed since the beginning of this year.

 

[Remius]

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/ford-trump-tariffs-canada-reaction-1.7393414

Doug Ford not mincing words.

And PP stating that these tariff threats are unjustified and that as PM he would retaliate if needed

 

[Kirkhill]

I saw Trump's reference to Fentanyl wrt the 25% tariff. I noted it and didn't think much more of it.

Then I saw this article about a Democrat getting elected in one of the Trumpier parts of the US - South West Washington State - back of the mountains and out in the scrublands.

This resonated.

Marie Gluesenkamp Perez​

I was talking to the director of one of our largest labor and delivery wards, and she told me that right now 40 percent of the babies born in her hospital have at least one parent addicted to fentanyl. Forty percent — this is generational carnage and it’s everywhere. People want to stop the flow of fentanyl. I think a lot of us have felt like if this was a thing in the lives of people with more money and influence, it would have been addressed sooner.

Noel King​

And so [you’re talking about] immigration, right?

Marie Gluesenkamp Perez​

We’re talking about border security. For so long they’ve been married, but together there’s two issues: immigration and border security. And we’re saying we cannot wait for a perfect immigration policy to have a secure border to stop the flow of fentanyl. And so that was a big point for me.

The Democrat who won in Trump country

Washington Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez on where she thinks her party went wrong in 2024.

www.vox.com

A good buddy and mentor came from that neck of the woods. Like Ms Perez he tends to vote Democrat. After reading that article I could be convinced to vote for her as well.

Marie Gluesenkamp Perez​

Well, again, look, I’m not a strategist, but I think 90 percent of Americans agree about 90 percent of the issues. And they have found the 10 things we disagree about to drive a stake through the heart of our community.

....

Canadian fentanyl made from Chinese precursors.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/fentanyl-produced-in-canada-1.7275200

 

[TangoTwoBravo]

If these tariffs are about Fentanyl smuggling across the border, then the following numbers are a useful frame:

a. 2024 US FY CBP seizures of Fentanyl from Canada - 43 pounds

b. 2024 US FY CBP seizures of Fentanyl from Mexico - 21,000 pounds

So either the Canadian Fentanyl smugglers are really really really good, or the problem lies elsewhere.