CAN-USA Tariff Strife (split from various pol threads)

[Furniture]

Pax Britannica made a lot of people rich and angry at the same time as it made Britain poor. The Georgians were rich. The Edwardians were poor.

America is in it's Edwardian era... But unlike the empire, America is intentionally accelerating it's demise.

 

[Kirkhill]

Who is going to play Britain's Wilson and Roosevelt to America? Do we bet on 70 years of Pax Sinae?

But those of us who love America must acknowledge how the US ruthlessly exploited its participation in the wars to demolish Britain’s financial, maritime and geopolitical power. It treats its allies as vassals, rather than equals. In Stalin’s War, Sean McMeekin recounts how Roosevelt suggested to Stalin in 1943 that India be taken away from Britain. It was best “not to discuss the question of India with Mr Churchill”, the US president said, arguing that America and Russia should remake India “from the bottom, somewhat on the Soviet line”. Stalin couldn’t believe his luck, or the way Roosevelt spoke of the greatest Englishman of all time.

John Maynard Keynes was sidelined at Bretton Woods. The 1947 sterling crisis was precipitated by America. The US betrayed us over Suez. Ronald Reagan disappointed on the Falklands, and invaded Grenada, a Commonwealth member, without properly informing Lady Thatcher. The IRA spent decades fundraising in the US while murdering in Britain. The UK sacrificed much in Iraq and Afghanistan after 9/11 for no return; the “special relationship” started to feel abusive. Barack Obama and Joe Biden disliked the UK, and removed Churchill’s bust from the Oval Office. Obama took the EU’s side over Brexit. Trump is an Anglophile, and may offer us a trade deal, but has no interest in our perspective.

 

[RangerRay]

Mods: If there’s a better thread for this, please feel free to move it.

I always love to hear former politicians talk. Their honesty can sometimes be brutal!

Jason Kenney is mad

Podcast Episode · The Paul Wells Show · 2025-03-12 · 37m

podcasts.apple.com

 

[daftandbarmy]

Does he mean the cruise ships that aren't US flagged owned by companies that aren't US domiciled. Exactly how does that work?

https://www.cruisecritic.com/articles/who-owns-my-cruise-line-a-guide-to-cruise-line-parent-companies

There's legislation in place that requires US cruise ships to stop at a Canadian port (mainly Victoria and Vancouver) when transiting Canadian waters. If they wave that you can say bye bye to many millions in revenue for the BC tourism industry this summer. Hundreds of small businesses would likely go under.

My guess is the charges to US trucks transiting BC to/from Alaska would be a fraction of that revenue stream. And yes, our politicians are that dumb...

B.C. ports monitoring Alaska senator’s cruise-ship bypass threat​

Trade war sparking division between B.C. and Alaska as cruise ships appear to be next collateral damage

The U.S. Passenger Vessel Services Act prohibits foreign-flagged vessels (such as cruise ships) from transporting passengers between U.S. ports (such as Seattle and Anchorage) without stopping at a foreign port. The act is a protectionist measure for U.S. maritime industries and there are some exceptions.

The act was last raised as an impediment during the COVID-19 pandemic, when American officials sought a broad exemption.

The Greater Victoria Harbour Authority’s Lewis-Manning said there are 320 cruise ships scheduled to visit his city in 2025.

B.C. ports monitoring Alaska senator’s cruise-ship bypass threat

Trade war sparking division between B.C. and Alaska as cruise ships appear to be next collateral damage

www.biv.com

 

[HavokFour]

There's legislation in place that requires US cruise ships to stop at a Canadian port (mainly Victoria and Vancouver) when transiting Canadian waters. If they wave that you can say bye bye to many millions in revenue for the BC tourism industry this summer. Hundreds of small businesses would likely go under.

My guess is the charges to US trucks transiting BC to/from Alaska would be a fraction of that revenue stream. And yes, our politicians are that dumb...

B.C. ports monitoring Alaska senator’s cruise-ship bypass threat​

Trade war sparking division between B.C. and Alaska as cruise ships appear to be next collateral damage

The U.S. Passenger Vessel Services Act prohibits foreign-flagged vessels (such as cruise ships) from transporting passengers between U.S. ports (such as Seattle and Anchorage) without stopping at a foreign port. The act is a protectionist measure for U.S. maritime industries and there are some exceptions.

The act was last raised as an impediment during the COVID-19 pandemic, when American officials sought a broad exemption.

The Greater Victoria Harbour Authority’s Lewis-Manning said there are 320 cruise ships scheduled to visit his city in 2025.

B.C. ports monitoring Alaska senator’s cruise-ship bypass threat

Trade war sparking division between B.C. and Alaska as cruise ships appear to be next collateral damage

www.biv.com

The Jones Act is exactly the reason why those cruise ships stop at B.C. ports, it's a loophole. Good luck getting any of the cruise ship companies to comply because said act requires the ships to be American made, flagged, and crewed. The ones with room for 3000+ passengers cost almost a billion each to build, and that's not even the "made in the USA" price.

 

[dapaterson]

Given how many Victoria residents seem to act, getting rid of those greasy unwashed tourists might be seen as a net win.

 

[Genetk44]

An interesting read with some more little known nfo

https://www.producer.com/news/u-s-dairy-exports-to-canada-up-67-per-cent/

 

[Kirkhill]

Where is this madness leading?

Trump’s game plan for devaluing the mighty dollar

Attempts to boost US exports risk undermining the foundations of American exceptionalism

www.telegraph.co.uk

Rewind to the mid-1980s, when Ronald Reagan was the US president, and America was cursed by a similarly large trade deficit, and thanks to the administration’s expansionary fiscal policies, a relatively strong currency buoyed by high interest rates.

Under threat of tariffs, the US’s four largest trading partners at the time – Japan, Germany, France and the UK – were persuaded to intervene in currency markets to weaken the dollar, an agreement that became known as the Plaza Accord.

It worked; from peak to trough, the dollar lost about 40pc of its trade weighted value. That success has galvanised calls from some in the Trump administration for a sequel, already dubbed for obvious reasons the “Mar-a-Lago Accord”.

Yet the world is a very different place today,

To be sustainable, moreover, would require the US to run artificially low interest rates and everywhere else to run them high. This would be doubly inflationary in the US and is scarcely likely to appeal to either Europe or China, where economic conditions are currently weak.

...

Alternatively, countries could be strong-armed into submission. Stephen Miran, who was confirmed last week as chairman of the US council of economic advisers, suggests that surplus countries should be forced to peg their currencies against the dollar at a beneficial rate to the US by threatening them with even higher trade tariffs should they refuse.

So what is Trump really after? Defence? Fentanyl? Dairy? Land? Water? Or just to unsettle us?
...

Yet even if this form of competitive devaluation via blackmail were initially successful, it wouldn’t necessarily stop the flow of foreign capital into US markets, and would therefore be hard to maintain.

Miran has got an answer for that, which is to tax the coupon on US treasury securities for overseas buyers so as to discourage foreign demand for them.

The same effect could be achieved, Miran argued in a paper last November, by forcing countries to swap their holdings of US Treasuries for 100-year bonds. In return they would receive security guarantees.

It scarcely needs saying that both these lines of attack would be regarded as a default, and would therefore play havoc with US debt markets and the federal government’s ability to fund its burgeoning budget deficit.

https://ticdata.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/tic/Documents/slt_table5.html

Canada holds 378.8 BUSD in Treasuries. Number 6 (there's that number again) behind Japan (1060), China (759), UK (723), Luxembourg (424) and Cayman Islands (419).

The whole ghastly, divisive mess we see unfolding before us was perfectly foreseen by the British economist John Maynard Keynes, and is in a sense a direct consequence of the dollar’s global reserve currency status.

Without going into the precise mechanisms, this in effect requires the US to run big, compensating fiscal and trade deficits so as to supply the rest of the world with the dollars it demands.

Keynes’s solution was to establish a separate international reserve currency which he called the “bancor”, but it never flew.

And in any case, would Trump really want to give up the dollar’s “exorbitant privilege”? It’s a fair bet that he would not. Nor does he seem minded to run the balanced budgets that would help mitigate the trade deficit.

There’s no telling where this will end. Badly, would be a reasonable guess.

 

[Good2Golf]

So what is Trump really after? Defence? Fentanyl? Dairy? Land? Water? Or just to unsettle us?

Yes…

 

[OldSolduer]

Yes…

I don’t think he has a clear idea either. It seems he has a political version ofADHD

 

[Kirkhill]

I don’t think he has a clear idea either. It seems he has a political version ofADHD

I still think it unwise to make that assumption. How do you create surprise in a transparent world?

 

[MilEME09]

Humor break for you all
.

 

[Fishbone Jones]

I don’t think he has a clear idea either. It seems he has a political version ofADHD

On the contrary. I think he knows exactly what he's doing.

He doesn't want to deal with a transitional government. Or a liberal one.

I think we can probably expect more of this until he knows exactly who he's dealing with after an election.

Right now, his goal is to keep people off balance. They can't solidify a response to him because he keeps moving the goalposts, on purpose.

Currently, with his talk of "they have nothing we need", he is attempting to nullify and cheapen our contribution. Which just leads people to believe that whatever they do buy, they are just being nice to us and doing us a favour. Right or wrong, that lowers the price we can ask for it. All the posturing is prep work for a final, serious sit down. Facts can come out, but the psychological impacts will remain in the back of everyone's mind and can sway decisions.

One thing I will state, almost categorically is, he knows who carney is, he knows what carney has done and he knows how carney will act. There are no secrets about carney he doesn't already know. Carney has zero advantage over Trump, in that department.

 

[Kirkhill]

On the contrary. I think he knows exactly what he's doing.

He doesn't want to deal with a transitional government. Or a liberal one.

I think we can probably expect more of this until he knows exactly who he's dealing with after an election.

Right now, his goal is to keep people off balance. They can't solidify a response to him because he keeps moving the goalposts, on purpose.

Currently, with his talk of "they have nothing we need", he is attempting to nullify and cheapen our contribution. Which just leads people to believe that whatever they do buy, they are just being nice to us and doing us a favour. Right or wrong, that lowers the price we can ask for it. All the posturing is prep work for a final, serious sit down. Facts can come out, but the psychological impacts will remain in the back of everyone's mind and can sway decisions.

One thing I will state, almost categorically is, he knows who carney is, he knows what carney has done and he knows how carney will act. There are no secrets about carney he doesn't already know. Carney has zero advantage over Trump, in that department.

I wouldn't forget that while Canada is on his list he is getting similar reactions for similar reasons in virtually every country on the planet. Everybody, including Putin and Xi, is trying to figure out him and his administration.

We can't afford to take everything personally.

 

[Brad Sallows]

Trump has demonstrated 180-degree incorrectness on almost every possible aspect of international trade. That suggests deep-seated ignorance, not 4-D chess political manoeuvres.

The simplest explanation is that he can't see past the basic economic advantages of being part of the US to understand all the other factors.

If someone could convince him it is good for America and Americans when other countries sell them things more cheaply than other Americans will, and discredit the advisors making contrary arguments, the problem would go away. Even if he can't be made to understand, he will pay attention to his ratings, for which the lever is educating everyone else. Meanwhile, we should do the same thing with our own politicians instead of making the trough deeper than it has to be and the inevitable recovery harder than it has to be.

 

[brihard]

Trump has demonstrated 180-degree incorrectness on almost every possible aspect of international trade. That suggests deep-seated ignorance, not 4-D chess political manoeuvres.

The simplest explanation is that he can't see past the basic economic advantages of being part of the US to understand all the other factors.

If someone could convince him it is good for America and Americans when other countries sell them things more cheaply than other Americans will, and discredit the advisors making contrary arguments, the problem would go away. Even if he can't be made to understand, he will pay attention to his ratings, for which the lever is educating everyone else. Meanwhile, we should do the same thing with our own politicians instead of making the trough deeper than it has to be and the inevitable recovery harder than it has to be.

Unfortunately he’s had a mercantilist bent for decades. I doubt that will change now.

 

[suffolkowner]

Trump has demonstrated 180-degree incorrectness on almost every possible aspect of international trade. That suggests deep-seated ignorance, not 4-D chess political manoeuvres.

The simplest explanation is that he can't see past the basic economic advantages of being part of the US to understand all the other factors.

If someone could convince him it is good for America and Americans when other countries sell them things more cheaply than other Americans will, and discredit the advisors making contrary arguments, the problem would go away. Even if he can't be made to understand, he will pay attention to his ratings, for which the lever is educating everyone else. Meanwhile, we should do the same thing with our own politicians instead of making the trough deeper than it has to be and the inevitable recovery harder than it has to be.

why would he care about his ratings?

 

[Kirkhill]

Trump has demonstrated 180-degree incorrectness on almost every possible aspect of international trade. That suggests deep-seated ignorance, not 4-D chess political manoeuvres.

The simplest explanation is that he can't see past the basic economic advantages of being part of the US to understand all the other factors.

If someone could convince him it is good for America and Americans when other countries sell them things more cheaply than other Americans will, and discredit the advisors making contrary arguments, the problem would go away. Even if he can't be made to understand, he will pay attention to his ratings, for which the lever is educating everyone else. Meanwhile, we should do the same thing with our own politicians instead of making the trough deeper than it has to be and the inevitable recovery harder than it has to be.

I don't know if he has a plan. I don't know if it is good or bad. I just think it is better to assume a plan than to assume no plan. Maybe chaos is his plan.

 

[Good2Golf]

Trump has demonstrated 180-degree incorrectness on almost every possible aspect of international trade. That suggests deep-seated ignorance, not 4-D chess political manoeuvres.

The simplest explanation is that he can't see past the basic economic advantages of being part of the US to understand all the other factors.

If someone could convince him it is good for America and Americans when other countries sell them things more cheaply than other Americans will, and discredit the advisors making contrary arguments, the problem would go away.

Only one person can…

 

[Oldgateboatdriver]

You know, I feel bad for the people of Pont Roberts.

But I have a solution for them. Repeat after me: "I swear (or affirm) that I will be faithful and bear true allegiance to His Majesty King Charles III, King of Canada, His Heirs and Successors, and that I will faithfully observe the laws of Canada and fulfil my duties as a Canadian citizen."

Then, we can contact Trump and tell him: We agree with you that the line between our countries needs to change. It has to go along the Southern edge of Point Roberts from now on.