CAN-USA Tariff Strife (split from various pol threads)

[Remius]

We already are or at least were economically integrated under CUSMA.

As we have now seen, agreements with the USA cannot be relied on. The US has turned isolationist.

The alignment is not towards further integration. We are already looking the other partners.

The damage is done.

 

[Genetk44]

Prediction:

The US is divided on whether it would accept Canada as a state or combination of states and likewise there is a large majority in Canada against such a union. The 51st state scenario has shallow support for all the numerous reasons already posted here by others, but namely for Canada the loss of sovereignty and identity, and for the US an unacceptable tilt to the left and all that brings.

Right now Trump has created a narrative where there are two extremes. One extreme being the 51st state and the other is status quo. Both are untenable. Most of Canada and a large part of the US will resist the 51st state scenario. But the US won't allow and Canada won't be able to maintain status quo. Canada will not survive a full blown economic war with the US and we are too far behind on defence, resource development, and economic diversity to put up a serious fight, we would crater our country. Trump through his chaotic approach has made the tariff issue a top priority of Canada, who now can't ignore the issue and kick the can down the road.

I think we are going to land right where I stated at the start of this thing. In the middle. A far more integrated North America both economically and militarily. There will be some winners and some losers in this scenario. I don't know exactly how that will look but at the end of the day both countries will be far better off in the long run.

If a more integrated North America both economically and militarily is really what Trump wants then there are certainly less hostile and destructive ways to accomplish it than what Trump is doing. So far all he has managed to do is piss off 40 million Canadians, destroy the trust between our two countries, re-energize the Liberal Party of Canada and cause chaos to the stock-markets. Not to mention that this all could go in a very unwanted and unforseen direction that even the mango-mussolini wasn’t expecting or wanting.

 

[QV]

If a more integrated North America both economically and militarily is really what Trump wants then there are certainly less hostile and destructive ways to accomplish it than what Trump is doing. So far all he has managed to do is piss off 40 million Canadians, destroy the trust between our two countries, re-energize the Liberal Party of Canada and cause chaos to the stock-markets. Not to mention that this all could go in a very unwanted and unforseen direction that even the mango-mussolini wasn’t expecting or wanting.

The Canadian commitment to NATO 2% says you're wrong. Canada has displayed master class dithering across all governments. Trump has forced the issue he thinks is important to be the top priority for others. Not a single Canadian politician is now waking up in the morning and not thinking about Trump's tariff threats. Trump's chaotic approach has forced Canada's hand where the normal reaction would have been platitudes and can kicking (the 'we'll meet 2% by the year 2085' kind of bs).

 

[QV]

While I agree that our dithering about our NATO commitment was egregious and should have been fixed long ago, it and Trumps other issues that he is unhappy with were not done in a vacuum. Other countries are below their NATO commitments also, the CUSMA trade issues and tariffs he claims are unfair that he is so upset about were negotiated and signed-off by Trump himself and he touted it as the greatest trade-deal in history. My point is, he came in and didn’t just kick-over the gameboard but he did it in such a way that he has destroyed a hundred years of trust, goodwill and civil co-operation that has been in play for a hundred years……and now will take a generation at least to rebuild. It’s a pretty stupid, destructive and unevolved way to try and correct percieved grievences among supposed allies.

The problem for Canada is that it's not just that it doesn't meet, it's at the very bottom. Secondly, Canada's contribution (or lack of) directly impacts defence of North America which is of prime concern for the US. So the issues created by Canada are far more compounded for the US than other NATO countries.

We should know by now that Trump will wield any stick (trade issues etc) he can to achieve the outcomes (defence spending, access etc) he's looking for.

 

[Remius]

Another m

The Canadian commitment to NATO 2% says you're wrong. Canada has displayed master class dithering across all governments. Trump has forced the issue he thinks is important to be the top priority for others. Not a single Canadian politician is now waking up in the morning and not thinking about Trump's tariff threats. Trump's chaotic approach has forced Canada's hand where the normal reaction would have been platitudes and can kicking (the 'we'll meet 2% by the year 2085' kind of bs).

Another moving goal post.

2%, 5% etc. None of that matters.

 

[PrairieFella]

The problem for Canada is that it's not just that it doesn't meet, it's at the very bottom.

Accuracy is important in these discussions, Canada's spending is 6th from the bottom in terms of percentage of GDP ahead of Iceland, Spain, Luxembourg, Slovenia and Belgium and is 6th in total spending behind the USA, Germany, the UK, France and Italy.

Obviously not good and we desperately need that moolah but it isn't true that we're at the bottom.

 

[Seyek]

The Canadian commitment to NATO 2% says you're wrong. Canada has displayed master class dithering across all governments. Trump has forced the issue he thinks is important to be the top priority for others. Not a single Canadian politician is now waking up in the morning and not thinking about Trump's tariff threats. Trump's chaotic approach has forced Canada's hand where the normal reaction would have been platitudes and can kicking (the 'we'll meet 2% by the year 2085' kind of bs).

If he had come out and said we're going to put tariffs on Canada until they are paying 2% (or more to make up for previous lack of funding), make changes to border controls, and other security related issues, and include defence and security clauses into future trade deals, I'd say you have a point. Hell, I'd even say he's right. But he didn't, he's lied and misrepresented Canada's role in US drug and border problems, he has pushed annexation, and lied and misrepresented the trade deal he negotiated and signed. Hell, he even torpedoed the border bill last year that would have helped address some of the actual border issues with Mexico, supported by his own party. I'm all for good faith negotiations - but they need be good faith negotiations, based on real issues, with realistic goals that are mutually beneficial.

 

[MrWhyt]

We should know by now that Trump will wield any stick (trade issues etc) he can to achieve the outcomes (defence spending, access etc) he's looking for.

he's wielding a stick cause he's got a stick and he wants to wield it cause he thinks it makes him look tough like the dictators he admires.

 

[McG]

Accuracy is important in these discussions, Canada's spending is 6th from the bottom in terms of percentage of GDP …

But Canada is very bottom in terms of the commitment for equipment spending to be at least 20% of 2% of GDP.

 

[brihard]

BBC has good coverage of the tariff issues today.

Trump threatens 200% tariff on alcohol from EU countries - latest

The US president says it will happen unless the EU stops a "nasty 50% tariff on whisky".

www.bbc.com

Lots of European focus today of course, but very importantly, earlier today Lutnick was commenting about what’s on the table and what’s not:

“We have identified some strategic industries – steel and aluminium, likely autos – but everything else is up for grabs,” he says in response to a question about the possibility of the trade fights leading to lower trade barriers.

Steel, aluminum, and probably cars- we’re in this for the long haul, and Trump may ride those tariffs all the way to and through certain industries crashing.

Trump also spoke further on Canada in the past hour:

"We don't need anything they have," the US president says of Canada, adding that he believes the nation would be a good addition to the United States.

“We don’t need their lumber, we don’t need their energy," he says.

Trump also acknowledged that there would be "disruption" as a result of the tariffs and counter-tariffs.

"But it won't be long," he says.[/Trump]

Not sure why he thinks it won’t be long. These are not industries that can pivot onshore quickly.

 

[RangerRay]

If a more integrated North America both economically and militarily is really what Trump wants then there are certainly less hostile and destructive ways to accomplish it than what Trump is doing. So far all he has managed to do is piss off 40 million Canadians, destroy the trust between our two countries, re-energize the Liberal Party of Canada and cause chaos to the stock-markets. Not to mention that this all could go in a very unwanted and unforseen direction that even the mango-mussolini wasn’t expecting or wanting.

In short, he’s doing it wrong.

 

[Kirkhill]

The Canadian commitment to NATO 2% says you're wrong. Canada has displayed master class dithering across all governments. Trump has forced the issue he thinks is important to be the top priority for others. Not a single Canadian politician is now waking up in the morning and not thinking about Trump's tariff threats. Trump's chaotic approach has forced Canada's hand where the normal reaction would have been platitudes and can kicking (the 'we'll meet 2% by the year 2085' kind of bs).

But dithering is.

Making decisions isn't.

That is the essence of Canada. In all fields.

All it takes is for somebody to start generating headlines and our politicians scuttle. We love our consensus and turf people with convictions as scary and/or arrogant. That applies to both teams red and blue.

 

[Good2Golf]

The problem for Canada is that it's not just that it doesn't meet, it's at the very bottom. Secondly, Canada's contribution (or lack of) directly impacts defence of North America which is of prime concern for the US. So the issues created by Canada are far more compounded for the US than other NATO countries.

We should know by now that Trump will wield any stick (trade issues etc) he can to achieve the outcomes (defence spending, access etc) he's looking for.

Interestingly, Trump started the tariff thing after Canada ordered tens of billions worth of F-35s, P-8s and AEGIS/SPY-7 radar/anti-missile capabilities …which is forward commitment to NATO AND continental defence…if someone wants to play the ‘you were deficient in the past’ game forever, then maybe they’ll never appreciate the now and future…

BBC has good coverage of the tariff issues today.

Trump threatens 200% tariff on alcohol from EU countries - latest

The US president says it will happen unless the EU stops a "nasty 50% tariff on whisky".

www.bbc.com

Lots of European focus today of course, but very importantly, earlier today Lutnick was commenting about what’s on the table and what’s not:



Steel, aluminum, and probably cars- we’re in this for the long haul, and Trump may ride those tariffs all the way to and through certain industries crashing.

Trump also spoke further on Canada in the past hour:

Ah yes…’we don’t need Canada’s energy’ so much, that he double the 25% tariff to 50% because of Ford’s surcharge on electricity (that they don’t need ).

 

[QV]

I also estimate that Carney will be the one most likely to negotiate a closer CAN/USA relationship. He favored the EU over BREXIT, I could see him leading the charge to make "NAU" happen.

 

[QV]

Interestingly, Trump started the tariff thing after Canada ordered tens of billions worth of F-35s, P-8s and AEGIS/SPY-7 radar/anti-missile capabilities …which is forward commitment to NATO AND continental defence…if someone wants to play the ‘you were deficient in the past’ game forever, then maybe they’ll never appreciate the now and future…


Ah yes…’we don’t need Canada’s energy’ so much, that he double the 25% tariff to 50% because of Ford’s surcharge on electricity (that they don’t need ).

10's of billions is probably not enough to Trump. He wants to see 100's. That kind of scale up.

 

[Czech_pivo]

I can be in favour of certain aspects of this. Such as, a Schegen like agreement on standards of individuals being granted the privilege to enter into North America, a 'commonality approach' between us. I could be potentially in favour of allowing citizens (not certain if I'm on board with 'landed immigrants, green card holders, individuals on student visa or international recognised refugees or alyssum seekers and of course undocumented individuals) to freely cross the border.

I also estimate that Carney will be the one most likely to negotiate a closer CAN/USA relationship. He favored the EU over BREXIT, I could see him leading the charge to make "NAU" happen.

 

[Good2Golf]

10's of billions is probably not enough to Trump. He wants to see 100's. That kind of scale up.

Over the life of the programs it will be 100s of billions, but at this rate, I’d trust the Europeans more not to screw us over, so I’d gladly transition from USD to EUR…

 

[QV]

Over the life of the programs it will be 100s of billions, but at this rate, I’d trust the Europeans more not to screw us over, so I’d gladly transition from USD to EUR…

Again, saying we'll spend XX now but over 40 years it will be XXX might not be enough.

And I wouldn't get your hopes up trusting the EU more than the US, it doesn't look too shit hot over there. The Americans are and will remain our closest and most trusted ally despite the temporary orange wrecking ball.

Our biggest challenge is to obtain a credible military for a G7 in the shortest amount of time. One of the ways to raise the funds for that is through our resources. And will includes supplying one of the world's largest economies - the US.

 

[KevinB]

Interestingly, Trump started the tariff thing after Canada ordered tens of billions worth of F-35s, P-8s and AEGIS/SPY-7 radar/anti-missile capabilities …which is forward commitment to NATO AND continental defence…if someone wants to play the ‘you were deficient in the past’ game forever, then maybe they’ll never appreciate the now and future…

But 1.34% for FY25 is still nowhere near 2%, and Canada is absolutely nowhere near the 20% of DND Budget for Capital Equipment purchases.

While I do not agree with P47's Tariff approach, Canada is a Defense Freeloader, and has been for decades.

Ah yes…’we don’t need Canada’s energy’ so much, that he double the 25% tariff to 50% because of Ford’s surcharge on electricity (that they don’t need ).

Who needs power after all

 

[dapaterson]

We already are or at least were economically integrated under CUSMA.

We can rename it the Canada Usa Mexico Strategic Trade Alliance Integrated Network.