CAN-USA Tariff Strife (split from various pol threads)

[Colin Parkinson]

The amount of times a beef cow crosses back and forth across the border makes this sort of labelling of beef difficult.

EDIT: Added from AI

It's very common and routine for cattle to cross the US-Canada border back and forth, as the North American beef industry is highly integrated, with hundreds of thousands of live cattle (feeder, slaughter, purebred) moving annually to balance feedlot capacity, processing needs, and genetics, operating almost like one large market with strong two-way trade despite strict health rules.
Why It Happens:

• Market Integration: The US and Canadian beef industries are deeply linked, functioning as one large market where cattle flow to where they're needed.
• Feeder Cattle: Many Canadian-born cattle go to US feedlots to be finished (fattened) before slaughter.
• Slaughter Cattle: Canadian cattle are also sent to US processing plants, while US cattle can come to Canada.
• Genetic Improvement: Farmers import purebred animals to improve their herds.

How Common Are the Numbers?

• Daily Movement: Significant numbers of live cattle cross daily.
• Annual Totals: In 2024, the US imported over 155,000 Canadian cattle, representing a large chunk of Canadian exports, and similar large numbers flow the other way.

The last 60 days of the life of the animal would make a good benchmark for country of origin. Most cattle spend much of their lives on the range, until the last few months, where they are fattened up in the stock yards.

 

[brihard]

So kill the dairy quotas, hold firm on health/safety/quality regulations, and invite their producers to compete with ours against an equal bar of quality to be met. If they can’t or choose not to produce good enough product at a good enough price to enter our market, that’s on them. The biggest aspect of that is probably going to be relative currency values.

 

[Altair]

So kill the dairy quotas, hold firm on health/safety/quality regulations, and invite their producers to compete with ours against an equal bar of quality to be met. If they can’t or choose not to produce good enough product at a good enough price to enter our market, that’s on them. The biggest aspect of that is probably going to be relative currency values.

Can we kill the quotas?

The current quotas are probably not enough to entice a US manufacturer to meet the higher standards to go toe to toe with Canadian producers.

But full access to a market of 40+ million? Someone would do it. And if they felt Canadian producers are weak and they have enough capital they would sell at a loss until Canadian producers cry uncle.

 

[dapaterson]

They'll argue that our health standards are barriers that need to be repealed.

 

[brihard]

They'll argue that our health standards are barriers that need to be repealed.

Fuck ‘em. That’s where a line can be drawn that we stick to and defend.

Can we kill the quotas?

The current quotas are probably not enough to entice a US manufacturer to meet the higher standards to go toe to toe with Canadian producers.

But full access to a market of 40+ million? Someone would do it. And if they felt Canadian producers are weak and they have enough capital they would sell at a loss until Canadian producers cry uncle.

If they engage in anticompetitive practices like that, that’s another issue that can be addressed through regulation.

The US wants to bitch about quotas they don’t come close to hitting anyway? Ok, fine. Remove the quotas - they are, after all, an anticompetitive measure that is entirely our own doing - but make it clear we won’t compromise on quality and safety standards.

 

[Altair]

If they engage in anticompetitive practices like that, that’s another issue that can be addressed through regulation.

We have a long and storied history of not doing that, allowing American businesses to swoop in and buy up Canadian businesses and make us into their branch plant, only to them kill our industry wholesale when it suits them, and then because we have no domestic industry left, impose their standards on us.

Wouldn't happen overnight, but 30-50 years, that's what I would forsee if we just removed the quotas outright.

 

[HavokFour]

If they engage in anticompetitive practices like that, that’s another issue that can be addressed through regulation.

And that is why I believe this part was included. Even if they'll have to use some Olympian levels of convoluted reasoning.

Developing mechanisms to penalize offshoring of U.S. production to Mexico or Canada as the result of regulatory and other arbitrages;

In any case, I am in agreement that we should wait it out. Congress isn't going to let him pull the trigger on that 6 month countdown in a mid-term year. Not to mention he is likely to lose even more "cards" when SCOTUS makes their tariff ruling.

 

[brihard]

Congress isn't going to let him…

Say that again, but slowly…

Not to mention he is likely to lose even more "cards" when SCOTUS makes their tariff ruling.

He had multiple other tariff authorities that he’s likely to abuse to a similar extend, and that would similarly take a while for the courts to rule on. Remember that businesses need predictability more than they need a win on a particular issue. With a less favourable but reliable rule set, business and capital flows adapt. But when you don’t and can’t know what the rules will be in two months, you deploy your capital elsewhere.

 

[Altair]

Add to this, next year we have the Quebec provincial election.

The CAQ is about to be decimated, currently projecting to win zero seats, the PLQ is in self immolation mode, and the PQ is probably going to win a huge majority, and have promised a referendum.

A large chunk of the dairy industry is based in Quebec, what greater way to piss off that province than to open up the Canadian dairy market to the yanks.

 

[Czech_pivo]

So kill the dairy quotas, hold firm on health/safety/quality regulations, and invite their producers to compete with ours against an equal bar of quality to be met. If they can’t or choose not to produce good enough product at a good enough price to enter our market, that’s on them. The biggest aspect of that is probably going to be relative currency values.

Question - what is the typical distance milk travels from farm, to a pastoralize facility and then on to a supermarket?

Attempting to address the concern of the following: Can raw milk from Wisconsin travel to a facility in southern Ontario to be pastoralized and then sold in a supermarket in Mississauga?

 

[HavokFour]

Question - what is the typical distance milk travels from farm, to a pastoralize facility and then on to a supermarket?

Attempting to address the concern of the following: Can raw milk from Wisconsin travel to a facility in southern Ontario to be pastoralized and then sold in a supermarket in Mississauga?

It's been many years, but I actually went on a field trip to a bottling facility in the 8th grade and I believe they said it was 2-3 days from farm to store with a farm sending a off a tanker full every 2 days. Seems to line up with this I've found online, from down south.

https://www.multivu.com/players/English/8158451-milk-life-glass-is-in-session-farm-to-glass/docs/surveyfactsheet-1502741690058-2103218765.pdf

 

[QV]

Add to this, next year we have the Quebec provincial election.

The CAQ is about to be decimated, currently projecting to win zero seats, the PLQ is in self immolation mode, and the PQ is probably going to win a huge majority, and have promised a referendum.

A large chunk of the dairy industry is based in Quebec, what greater way to piss off that province than to open up the Canadian dairy market to the yanks.

Tinfoil hat time: The US has been tracking these developments in Quebec. They want to see a resurgence of the PQ and a new referendum. A broken up Canada is much easier to pillage than a strong united one.

 

[Genetk44]

Don't forget.... the US has has a substantial dairy surplus that they need to move... what the Europeans called a butter mountain and a dairy lake back in the 1970s..... and guess whose market they want to flood with that dairy surplus?

 

[dapaterson]

Tinfoil hat time: The US has been tracking these developments in Quebec. They want to see a resurgence of the PQ and a new referendum. A broken up Canada is much easier to pillage than a strong united one.

Or...

They want Quebec in Canada so they will continue to boycott travel to the US because they're terrified of Quebecois in Florida wearing Speedos.

 

[Brad Sallows]

A problem with always focusing on "Trump" as the root of a trade issue is it tends to remove the burden of thinking about and realizing to what extent a majority in Congress also holds the position. They're getting what they seek without having to take any flak.

 

[Altair]

Tinfoil hat time: The US has been tracking these developments in Quebec. They want to see a resurgence of the PQ and a new referendum. A broken up Canada is much easier to pillage than a strong united one.

I would be surprised if the administration in Washington knew that Quebec has a dairy industry, has an election next year, and is part of Canada to begin with.

 

[Altair]

Don't forget.... the US has has a substantial dairy surplus that they need to move... what the Europeans called a butter mountain and a dairy lake back in the 1970s..... and guess whose market they want to flood with that dairy surplus?

100 percent. We need to keep the quota and the food standards.

We can adjust the quota certainly, but the food regulations needs to be a hard no.

 

[Czech_pivo]

It's been many years, but I actually went on a field trip to a bottling facility in the 8th grade and I believe they said it was 2-3 days from farm to store with a farm sending a off a tanker full every 2 days. Seems to line up with this I've found online, from down south.

https://www.multivu.com/players/English/8158451-milk-life-glass-is-in-session-farm-to-glass/docs/surveyfactsheet-1502741690058-2103218765.pdf

Interesting read.

According to that info, in the US, 16% of fresh milk travels in excess of 1,000miles from farm to store. Milk typically arrives to the store in under 48hrs from leaving the farm - I find that quite surprising as it must mean that milk has an extremely quick turn around at the pasteurization plant and then off to the supermarket.

 

[HavokFour]

Interesting read.

According to that info, in the US, 16% of fresh milk travels in excess of 1,000miles from farm to store. Milk typically arrives to the store in under 48hrs from leaving the farm - I find that quite surprising as it must mean that milk has an extremely quick turn around at the pasteurization plant and then off to the supermarket.

Found a little more detail of the process in Canada. I have a feeling any unpasteurized milk from the US would fail our current standards very early on if it had to travel more than 300km, or possibly less.

EDIT: In fact I think the initial quality test before the truck starts moving is enough disincentive for any US farm to even consider shipping it here, if they wont even be paid if it fails.

Milk’s Journey to You - BC Dairy

Wondering how milk travels from farm to table? Get the inside scoop on how milk is collected from local dairy farms and delivered fresh to a retailer near

bcdairy.ca

 

[Blackadder1916]

. . . enough disincentive for any US farm to even consider shipping it here . . .

Milk’s Journey to You - BC Dairy

Wondering how milk travels from farm to table? Get the inside scoop on how milk is collected from local dairy farms and delivered fresh to a retailer near

bcdairy.ca

But it won't be "farmers" that are shipping fresh milk to Canadian processing plants. Just as it now works in Canada (and the US) the guy (or corporation) who owns and handles the teats has standing agreement with a major processor (or is part of a cooperative) that picks up the milk, tests it, transports it and processes it. Even with the unfulfilled quotas that the US now has, liquid product (milk. cream, etc) is less than 20% of the total exported to Canada. It is the less perishable, processed products that make up most of their exports; a lot of that being products that are used in manufacturing other food items. One of the largest finished, direct to consumer dairy products that they export to us is infant formula - even though Canada has a surplus of the needed milk components, we don't have the manufacturing capacity.

What happens when it becomes easier to buy from south of the border.

Why doesn't Canada make its own baby formula when we have the raw ingredients?

OTTAWA — If infant formula has become akin to liquid gold for parents stressed about empty store shelves this year, Canada may be sitting on a potential treasure trove — if only it could process the raw elements. There is a surplus of the main ingredient for infant formula, but without...

toronto.citynews.ca

That shortage started when a manufacturing plant in the United States that made a large portion of Canada’s baby formula supply closed for several months after a product recall in February 2022.

It reopened four months later but still isn’t up to full capacity.

There used to be plants in Canada, but over time they moved across the border. Now the country relies entirely on imports to feed babies that aren’t breastfed.