CAN-USA Tariff Strife (split from various pol threads)

[JLB50]

From the Telegraph article above. Ms Leavitt is the new White House press secretary.

Leavitt considers Trudeau’s “forceful” and “immediate” retaliation comments to be “outlandish” despite what Trump has said and done?

On top of that, Trump is now talking about tariffs on the EU as well. I wonder how long it’s going to take for the senators and congressmen who are currently supporting Trump to finally realize that he has serious mental problems.

 

[Cloud Cover]

Leavitt considers Trudeau’s “forceful” and “immediate” retaliation comments to be “outlandish” despite what Trump has said and done?

On top of that, Trump is now talking about tariffs on the EU as well. I wonder how long it’s going to take for the senators and congressmen who are currently supporting Trump to finally realize that he has serious mental problems.

Oh everybody knows that. They are too scared to do anything about it.
Imagine being the family of the BlackHawk pilot right now. Nobody reaching out, the US Army too scared to ask him to back off for a bit.

 

[Fishbone Jones]

And so it begins. Never let a crisis go to waste.

Carney says he'll dump consumer carbon tax, charge 'carbon border adjustment' tariffs on imports

Liberal leadership candidate Mark Carney added his name to the list of Liberals promising to scrap the Trudeau government’s consumer carbon tax.

nationalpost.com

The return of the tariff economy - carbonmail.

To be honest I actually prefer that solution over the carbon sales tax. But that's just me.

It's still a carbon tax. Basic economics says if the manufacturer and supplier are paying the tax, so will you. Those people are not prepared, nor should they be, to carry your burden. Carney must think we're stupid peasants.

 

[Fishbone Jones]

If your getting upset at bumper stickers you need to rethink your focus. You may not like it, but there is SFA you can do about it. It's someone's opinion and they are entitled to it just like you are yours.

Just like it's just an opinion about Trumps mental acuity.

 

[The Bread Guy]

Trump threatens trade war with EU

President hits China, Canada and Mexico with tariffs – and says Europe will be next

www.telegraph.co.uk

One way the temperature of these discussions could be lowered is by removing the word "war" from the vocabulary. Along with "existential" and "devastating".

Maybe our neighbour should get that memo about using more temperate language, too, then?

So, bets on quick (US starts collecting its new tax Saturday?) or slow (declare an emergency & go through some process before the sweet revenues start pouring into US coffers)? Some guesses from CNN:

‘Nothing’ Canada can do to prevent tariffs, says Trump

U.S. President Donald Trump said there is 'nothing' Canada can do to prevent the punishing tariffs expected to be unleashed tomorrow.

www.ctvnews.ca

Oh look, Trump himself says there is nothing that can be done to stop tariffs.

It makes no difference what we do. We are not dealing with a stable ally.

 

[Navy_Pete]

Oh everybody knows that. They are too scared to do anything about it.
Imagine being the family of the BlackHawk pilot right now. Nobody reaching out, the US Army too scared to ask him to back off for a bit.

Yeah, no kidding, imagine still getting through the shock of having your family killed, and having POTUS coming on tv blaming them while they are still fishing people out of the water and barely started any kind of investigation. What a POS.

 

[Fishbone Jones]

If I had one wish, it would be that Trump put this on the back burner until after the election. The liberals can't be trusted to bargain Canada's position from a position of what’s good for the country.

 

[IKnowNothing]

I'd really like to see a creative and nuanced approah to our response on this.

There's been a lot of ink spilled about the reality that while Trump's tariffs will be damaging to our economy, the actual financial cost will be paid by American consumers. Hopefully we don't jump right in after him and cut off our consumers and manufacturers nose to spite our face with dollar for dollar broadbased tariffs


Targetted tariffs on goods that are at the end of the supply chain, and either extremely elastic in their demand (non-essential) or substitutable for goods made elsewhere- Canada is ideal, but EU, Korea, Japan good to. Ex. Farm machinery, vehicle models that compete against those assembled in Ontario, Ford's liquor idea. We can't win trading economic broadsides- but targetted measures should be able to punch back while funnell8ng domestic demand into domestic products

 

[Brad Sallows]

Some of our politicians are playing the same game as Trump - pointing abroad to distract from problems at home, with plenty of unhelpful heated rhetoric. I suppose along with "trade war against Americans" and "war rooms" we'll soon be forming small sub-groups of cabinet MPs and MLAs and calling them "war cabinets". Bellicose language is easy. Substantive policy to offset recessionary effects is hard.

I haven't heard of even the simplest inter-provincial trade barrier being dropped by anyone, yet.

 

[Good2Golf]

My bingo card has: “Trump will keep beasting Canada until Trudeau and any subsequent Liberal PM is gone…”

We’ll see if I’m wrong…

 

[Cloud Cover]

My bingo card has: “Trump will keep beasting Canada until Trudeau and any subsequent Liberal PM is gone…”

We’ll see if I’m wrong…

I think you’re right.

 

[Good2Golf]

I think you’re right.

And if PM Carney ask for and gets the GG’s approval to extend the Givernment beyond the legislative date for the election as an emergency measure to ‘deal with President Trump’ the tariffs will be further increased…

 

[JLB50]

Damn, if that’s the case, then it’s a pretty good reason to vote Liberal.

 

[Remius]

Negotiations have been tried for months?

Trump was inaugurated 11 days ago.

Could you clarify your statement please?

Yes. Trudeau went down to maralago to discuss. This isn’t news.

 

[NearingZenith]

Trump threatens trade war with EU

President hits China, Canada and Mexico with tariffs – and says Europe will be next

www.telegraph.co.uk

One way the temperature of these discussions could be lowered is by removing the word "war" from the vocabulary. Along with "existential" and "devastating".

We are not looking at a short, sharp shock here. We are looking at a change of course.

Most Americans oppose tariffs on Canadian imports, annexation: poll

It’s also important that we keep our rhetoric properly calibrated to keep the American public/voters on our side. Right now the majority of Americans oppose tariffs, believe tariffs will increase prices, and are opposed to Trump’s talk of annexing Canada.

It pretty clear now that Canadian officials won’t be able to dissuade Trump from tariffs and other American politicians and business executives seem unlikely to do so either. We’ll have to rely on the American people’s opposition to tariffs to change Trump’s mind. Americans are very patriotic of course, so Canada needs to make sure our rhetoric and counter-tariffs don’t make the American people feel personally targeted or under attack and that they continue to blame the impacts of tariffs on Trump rather than Canada to prevent them from simply rallying around their flag and their President which will drag out this “special tariff operation” indefinitely.

 

[brihard]

And if PM Carney ask for and gets the GG’s approval to extend the Givernment beyond the legislative date for the election as an emergency measure to ‘deal with President Trump’ the tariffs will be further increased…

Why are people pretending this is a thing he can unilaterally do? It’s codified into the Canada Elections Act. Is this the week’s new conspiracy theory, Carney will get voted in by the party and then somehow just blow through election law without it being succesfully challenged in court on the strength of a clear legislative requirement?

 

[ModlrMike]

So, tariffs on Canada and Mexico, plus the threat of tariffs on Europe. I'm not sure a global trade war is going to have the outcome he expects.

 

[ModlrMike]

Why are people pretending this is a thing he can unilaterally do? It’s codified into the Canada Elections Act. Is this the week’s new conspiracy theory, Carney will get voted in by the party and then somehow just blow through election law without it being succesfully challenged in court on the strength of a clear legislative requirement?

If the opposition parties get even the slightest whiff that this option is in play, there will be a rapid non-confidence motion. The GG will then be forced to make a choice.

 

[Kirkhill]

Some back of the envelope economics from a poor salesman.

September 1st 2024, before Trump was elected and before any tariffs had been discussed Alberta Oil (WCS) was selling in the States at 55.90 USD per barrel.
The WCS was displacing the homegrown WTI which the US was selling on the open market at 70.24 USD per barrel allowing the States to pocket 14.34 USD per barrel as gross revenue.

At that time the Canadian Dollar was trading at 74 US Cents on the Canadian Dollar.
At that price and exchange rate Alberta was pocketing 75.54 CAD per barrel.
And the Alberta budget was looking pretty healthy.

...

Changes.

...

Today WCS is selling in the States at 61.42 USD per barrel. The price the US refineries are paying has risen 10%.
WTI is selling for 72.53 USD per barrel giving allowing the US to pocket 11.11 USD per barrel as gross revenue. The revenue has fallen 22%.

Today the Canadian Dollar is trading at 69 US Cents on the Canadian Dollar. A 7% reduction in the value of the Canadian Dollar.
At today's price and exchange rate Alberta is pocketing 89.01 CAD per barrel. An 18% increase in the revenue stream to Alberta.
And the Alberta budget is looking even healthier.

...

Future with a 10% tariff added.

With a 10% tariff on top of today's price the US refineries will be paying 67.56 USD per barrel.
Assuming that WTI is still selling at today's price of 72.53 USD (a poor assumption) then the US will only be pocketing 4.97 USD per barrel

Alberta will still be pocketing 89.01 CAD per barrel.

Is it still worth the US refineries' effort? Possibly not.

...

Solution

Alberta sells oil at 75.54 CAD per barrel, its Sept 1 2024 price. With the weaker dollar and the reduced price then the US refineries will be paying 57.34 USD per barrel for the WCS and be selling WTI at 72.53 USD resulting in a revenue stream of 15.19 USD per barrel.

The refineries will actually be making 85 Cents a barrel more than they were before the tariff was imposed and Alberta is making exactly the same.

...

These types of changes are well within the "natural" flux the markets experience. There is nothing world ending about them.

 

[brihard]

If the opposition parties get even the slightest whiff that this option is in play, there will be a rapid non-confidence motion. The GG will then be forced to make a choice.

Not really. The next possible confidence motion would result in the government losing confidence in the house and the GG, as is convention, would dissolve Parliament.