CAN-USA Tariff Strife (split from various pol threads)

[foresterab]

Maybe someone here with more knowledge on this subject can shed some more light on this.

A few years back a person that I know who works in Real Estate in the GTA once told that that an immigrant from China can only legally bring with them 30k USD when they leave China to immigrant elsewhere. When I asked them how it was possible for them to come here (or the US) and buy a house in the GTA with that little money. They kind of laughed and said, why they smuggle it in of course, either through a shell company or gold or bank wires.

Anyone here know if the 30k USD amount when leaving China is correct?

I sure as heck don't know all the ins and outs but I have been told alot also depends on the context of the money coming into the country.

So if you are immigrating as an "investor class" immigrant which if I understand correctly was a minimum $100k CAD into a Canadian business then it makes sense to allow for large scale fund transfers as part of the financing. FINTRAC rules might apply - not a banker so don't know it all.

Real estate transactions...again makes sense for larger transactions to occur although FINTRAC rules might apply.

Some joke/make a habit of bringing in 9,900 CAD in cash, per adult each trip home as it's just below the declarable limit and over time ads up especially with multiple family members/trips. Folks also get caught doing this at customs due to having extra funds in their pocket tipping them over the limit so it's not always risk free but it's well established rules too.

Gold/jewelry/personal items...tough to value and some cultures place more emphasis upon this type of visual wealth than my WASP family does. A person with 5 golden bracelets on their arm...are they personal possessions or smuggling in 5 bracelets worth of gold? How does a customs officer prove intent or what they left the country with pre-trip?

Just know there are so many different ways to game the system under our current mis-mash of rules that some abuse them. Most Canadians are good about following most rules but I also think of how many people under declare values when cross border shopping so it's not just immigrants but maybe a symptom of our friendly, often lax but occasionally strict border checks.

 

[Czech_pivo]

Interesting bit of news.

If this does occur expect the CAD to be around 63-66 cents to the USD, if the USD Fed continues in its modest reduction of US interest rates.

A CAD at the level will mean that CDN produced products will on fire sale in the US, which is great for exporters but man for certain it will incur the wrath of Trump as the trade deficit will tilt even more in our favour. The mantra will be, 'Canada is artificially sinking its dollar so they can dump CDN products in the US'. Never mind that the US consumers would benefit from this because it would lower alot of their day to day necessities and help stretch their budget.

Damned if we do, damned if we don't.

BMO now sees the central bank slashing rates much more aggressively on this path. “Previously, we expected the Bank to cut two more times this year, leaving the terminal rate at 2.50%. Now, we’re forecasting 25 bp cuts at each meeting until October, pulling terminal 100 bps lower to 1.50%,” she forecasts.

Adding, “This means Canada-U.S. overnight rate spreads will push past -225 bps, testing the all-time extreme from 1997.”

The terminal interest rate is when central banks are projected to end their monetary cycle. In this case, it’s the amount of ease believed to bring the inflation rate to target.

 

[Fishbone Jones]

Very real possibility he moves ahead with deal making designed to absorb all or parts of Canada into the Union.

You'll likely be dead of old age first.

 

[lenaitch]

If only we had diversified the risk to our national economy when we had the chance...

https://twitter.com/x/status/1886241634142040279

It doesn't detract from their argument, but a slight quibble with the caption; that is not a map of energy pipelines but oil pipelines. I don't know about western Canada but there are indeed gas pipelines that flow into central and eastern Canada.

 

[QV]

You'll likely be dead of old age first.

Perhaps. A common theme with Trump, he introduces a controversial subject in a broad sense and gets everyone talking first. Battle lines are drawn and a variety of arguments ensue for and against. He sits back and eggs it on (probably inwardly smirking) and watches the reactions. Then he solidifies his position and more details emerge. I don't see him letting this one go unless all his backroom advisors are against it.

 

[Brad Sallows]

So, once again, what is it you think Canada should be doing in the immediate term in response?

Start executing now on everything. People arguing that Canada is under threat for the next 4 years, and certainly people arguing "the relationship has permanently changed", can't credibly roll out the usual "by the time it's ready..." rhetoric to indefinitely stall.

 

[Brad Sallows]

Carney would be an excellent Minister of Finance -

He'd be an excellent BoC governor.

The chance of someone with some particular piece of experience in "finance" being an excellent Finance Minister is probably in the neighbourhood of the chance of someone with some particular piece of experience in "defence" being an excellent MND.

 

[KevinB]

Perhaps. A common theme with Trump, he introduces a controversial subject in a broad sense and gets everyone talking first. Battle lines are drawn and a variety of arguments ensue for and against. He sits back and eggs it on (probably inwardly smirking) and watches the reactions. Then he solidifies his position and more details emerge. I don't see him letting this one go unless all his backroom advisors are against it.

He doesn’t want Canada, it’s a net loss for Republicans. He wants Canada to act - so insulting sovereignty is one way to get Canadians to actually act on that.

I’m sure he also enjoys watching people lose their minds about nonsense.

He is a very cunning showman.

 

[Brad Sallows]

Right.

The starlink was for remote hard to reach communities.

So there's the possibility we'll still pay Starlink millions of dollars and the Canadians in remote communities' won't get any internet.

This is the danger of knee jerk reactions reaching for low hanging fruit.

When I muse rhetorically on things Canadian politicians might start in Canada to improve GDP growth, I'm being partly facetious. I know that if the politicians didn't have some established interests they don't want to upset, they'd already have moved on things like reducing internal trade barriers. They will hold off doing anything except "trade war!" as long as they can and keep making well-sounding noises as if they might behave otherwise; it is not really true that "everthing is on the table".

However, as Ford has demonstrated, f*cking over a bunch of powerless third parties who are not part of the club is always on the menu.

 

[Czech_pivo]

He doesn’t want Canada, it’s a net loss for Republicans. He wants Canada to act - so insulting sovereignty is one way to get Canadians to actually act on that.

I’m sure he also enjoys watching people lose their minds about nonsense.

He is a very cunning showman.

Well, lets by honest here - if being insulted publicly, day in and day out by our closest neighbour and ally lights/stirs whatever remains of our National Identity that resulted in a 1 million person armed forces during WWII to get off our soft, squishy ass and revitalise the CAF then I have ZERO issues with that.

 

[brihard]

He doesn’t want Canada, it’s a net loss for Republicans. He wants Canada to act - so insulting sovereignty is one way to get Canadians to actually act on that.

I’m sure he also enjoys watching people lose their minds about nonsense.

He is a very cunning showman.

How is it a net loss for Republicans? We have a TON of raw material resources- industries they tend to be quite favourable to.

 

[mariomike]

How is it a net loss for Republicans?

Politically?

 

[QV]

The votes would potentially lean DNC.

I don't think Trump cares about the Republican Party though.

 

[brihard]

The votes would potentially lean DNC.

I don't think Trump cares about the Republican Party though.

Bold of you to assume he’s coerce us in and then enfranchise us to vote against him.

 

[Booter]

I’d suggest the easiest start is actually jailing people for significant drug seizures. Which we don’t do. If we catch and release I don’t think it matters how many dudes are watching.

 

[Booter]

The votes would potentially lean DNC.

I don't think Trump cares about the Republican Party though.

Or we just become a territory for 50 years and can’t vote until the new generation of voters is brought up in the new age.

 

[brihard]

Or we just become a territory for 50 years and can’t vote until the new generation of voters is brought up in the new age.

A perpetual “roadmap to statehood”, designed not to advance.

 

[Kirkhill]

It doesn't detract from their argument, but a slight quibble with the caption; that is not a map of energy pipelines but oil pipelines. I don't know about western Canada but there are indeed gas pipelines that flow into central and eastern Canada.

Behold the Trans Canada Natural Gas system including the recently completed Coast Gas Link to the LNG port at Kitimat

About Coastal GasLink

With an industry-leading safety record, and a stable network of natural gas pipelines, TC Energy is committed to delivering the energy people need, every day. Coastal GasLink is an essential component of how we are working to support the global energy transition. Spanning 670 kilometres (416...

www.coastalgaslink.com

First shipment anticipated Mid 2025

$18B LNG Canada Kitimat facility set to introduce natural gas

Project, which is about 90-per-cent complete, is slated to be operational next summer

www.biv.com

Note that our gas is delivered to tide water at US ports and at Quebec ports (Montreal and Quebec).

Kitimat is the first tide water export facility in Canada. Note that the closest the existing network of gas lines approaches Canadian tide water is at Cochrane Ontario with Moosonee being salt water. The next closest approach is from the Alberta fields across the top of Saskatchewan and Manitoba to Churchill/Port Nelson/York Factory. That is two or three times the length of the Cochrane-Moosonee line. And yes, it would be a seasonal shipment involving ice-strengthened hulls and breakers. It might even involve some extraordinary civil works after the fashion of those employed in the Beaufort Sea.

Here's the CAPP oil pipeline map including the TMX line.

Oil Pipelines | Oil Sands Magazine

DESCRIPTION: CANADIAN CRUDE EXPORT AND DILUENT IMPORT PIPELINES SITE MAP: PROJECTS / MIDSTREAM / PIPELINES SOURCE: CAPP, CER, STATISTICS CANADA, PIPELINE OPERATORS UPDATED: AUG 12, 2025

www.oilsandsmagazine.com

And for the trifecta here is the Canadian rail network



The "Other (eg Short Lines)" include The Churchill Railway and the Ontario Northland Polar Bear Express between Cochrane and Moosonee.

Gas and oil could be delivered by rail to Halifax, Saint John and Bathurst but would have to go through Quebec.
It could also be delivered to Prince Rupert, Kitimat and Vancouver, BC willing.

PS - anybody noticing how much of Canada doesn't have any lines of any type in comparison to the spaghetti bowl that is the US?

 

[PrairieFella]

He doesn’t want Canada, it’s a net loss for Republicans. He wants Canada to act - so insulting sovereignty is one way to get Canadians to actually act on that.

I’m sure he also enjoys watching people lose their minds about nonsense.

He is a very cunning showman.

Youre ascribing way to much logic to a man who has proven to be completely illogical. Whats more likely is he actually does want to annex Canada for the win and the for the showmanship. I doubt he's doing the second order thinking that would make him realize he'd ensure Republicans are never elected again.

 

[foresterab]

Behold the Trans Canada Natural Gas system including the recently completed Coast Gas Link to the LNG port at Kitimat
View attachment 91023

About Coastal GasLink

With an industry-leading safety record, and a stable network of natural gas pipelines, TC Energy is committed to delivering the energy people need, every day. Coastal GasLink is an essential component of how we are working to support the global energy transition. Spanning 670 kilometres (416...

www.coastalgaslink.com

First shipment anticipated Mid 2025

$18B LNG Canada Kitimat facility set to introduce natural gas

Project, which is about 90-per-cent complete, is slated to be operational next summer

www.biv.com

Note that our gas is delivered to tide water at US ports and at Quebec ports (Montreal and Quebec).

Kitimat is the first tide water export facility in Canada. Note that the closest the existing network of gas lines approaches Canadian tide water is at Cochrane Ontario with Moosonee being salt water. The next closest approach is from the Alberta fields across the top of Saskatchewan and Manitoba to Churchill/Port Nelson/York Factory. That is two or three times the length of the Cochrane-Moosonee line. And yes, it would be a seasonal shipment involving ice-strengthened hulls and breakers. It might even involve some extraordinary civil works after the fashion of those employed in the Beaufort Sea.

Here's the CAPP oil pipeline map including the TMX line.

View attachment 91024

Oil Pipelines | Oil Sands Magazine

DESCRIPTION: CANADIAN CRUDE EXPORT AND DILUENT IMPORT PIPELINES SITE MAP: PROJECTS / MIDSTREAM / PIPELINES SOURCE: CAPP, CER, STATISTICS CANADA, PIPELINE OPERATORS UPDATED: AUG 12, 2025

www.oilsandsmagazine.com

And for the trifecta here is the Canadian rail network

View attachment 91025

The "Other (eg Short Lines)" include The Churchill Railway and the Ontario Northland Polar Bear Express between Cochrane and Moosonee.

Gas and oil could be delivered by rail to Halifax, Saint John and Bathurst but would have to go through Quebec.
It could also be delivered to Prince Rupert, Kitimat and Vancouver, BC willing.

PS - anybody noticing how much of Canada doesn't have any lines of any type in comparison to the spaghetti bowl that is the US?

Well when you look at the development of the TransCanada railway there are a couple of things that still stand out to me:
1) one of the first acts was to buy a US railroad from Sault Ste Marie to Daluth to allow shipments to current day Winnipeg (and build both east and west from that point)
2) more dynamite was used in northern ontario than through BC

What I also never realized as a kid travelling through that area but sure realized as an adult is how harsh, especially by 1800 settlement standards, northern Ontario is and how much of a geographic barrier it is on the country.

It is telling that 150 post confederation the country is still connected - in northern Ontario - by two lane highway pinch points just outside of Nipigon to Thunder Bay....and then again from Kamistigquia to Shabaqua Corner....and then again from Kenora to Manitoba. Or if you truly want to travel E/W fast you go south through the USA.

The USA has its empty spaces especially in the SW states but nothing like some of the barriers in Canada.