CAN-USA Tariff Strife (split from various pol threads)

[RangerRay]

Quebec's 'unique culture' won't last either, for similar reasons, and it will be interesting to see how Trump's vigorous free market croney capitalist philosophy will impact these tottering, centrally controlled, economic structures.

Fixed that for you.

 

[lenaitch]

Yea but the bulk of this stuff is provincial legislation/regulation. That’s the point I’m making. From what I’ve read when trying to discern what these interprovincial barriers actually are, it tends to vary across things like product specifications, to professional licensure and trade tickets, to transportation regulations and such.

I’m not saying there’s no federal legislation in play- maybe in some cases there is. But there’s a lot to be gained by provinces identifying regulatory disparities and getting on the same page.

I guess Ontario will be a challenge for another month or so…

For sure. I read somewhere that there are about 140 'exemptions' to the Canada Free Trade Agreement and that the feds recently agreed in principle to eliminate 17 (I don't know if that represents all of the federal exemptions). Unfortunately, I cannot find those links this morning. If nothing else, the federal Importation of Intoxicating Liquors Act comes to mind.

I see greater mobility in goods between provinces an easier nut to crack. Areas such as labour mobility, certificate and government contract access will be tougher. I simply can't see a unilingual English person or company being allowed to operate in Quebec. A friend of ours is a unilingual Ontario-certified veterinarian and relocated to Quebec (military partner). All she had to do was pass an all-French exam and practice in French.

 

[RangerRay]

Interprovincial also got is none of the most egregious examples. Hell, it even went all the way to the Supreme Court in 2018 and was upheld as a valid exercise of provincial authority. Shows how strong these internal barriers can be.

The labour mobility is a big deal too, opening that up would foster competition.

And if I recall correctly, the lower courts all struck down the provincial trade barriers as unconstitutional. The Supreme Court disagreed with all lower courts.

 

[IKnowNothing]

No it isn't. A huge chunk of your beef and lamb come from small farm operations (Beef farm less than 200-300 head is small). They may be concentrated in feedlots for finish but they start in typical 30-100 head cow-calf operation in Ontario. Similar to sheep, you have everything from a 20 head operation to up over a few thousand. The advantage of small farms is the family can still work part time or full time OFF farm and get supplemental income (or mainstay income).

The small farm can adapt very quickly and sometimes survive economic hardships (our farm is surviving due to off farm income for the time being).

Hogs, Layersw, meat chickens, turkeys are all usually larger concentrated operations.

Small farms are not dead and they never will be.

They said in 1950s small farms are done, same with the 1960s, 1970s, 1980s, 1990s, 2000s, 2010s.

Let me clarify- the financially viable, family supporting, small farm is largely dead.
My family has farmed the same land since 1850. I'm not talking out of my ass here. We've lived the shift from the 60's to now, watched the school filled with 400+ farm kids dwindle to under 200.

The lands and operations that once provided for families of 5,6,7,8 now primarily fit somewhere on the scale between
"break even passion project that subsidizes the grocery bill and provides tax advantages" and " profitable side hustle that provides some additional income", and more and more of those operations are disappearing as their land is swallowed into larger and larger financially viable businesses.

That isn't to say that those smaller operations don't play a vital role in our food supply chain- but we're not talking apples to apples with the family farms of the past, or with the commercial operations of today. From a national policy standpoint- failing to acknowledge that will lead to failure to protect them for what they are, and contribute to them continuing to disappear.

 

[lenaitch]

No it isn't. A huge chunk of your beef and lamb come from small farm operations (Beef farm less than 200-300 head is small). They may be concentrated in feedlots for finish but they start in typical 30-100 head cow-calf operation in Ontario. Similar to sheep, you have everything from a 20 head operation to up over a few thousand. The advantage of small farms is the family can still work part time or full time OFF farm and get supplemental income (or mainstay income).

The small farm can adapt very quickly and sometimes survive economic hardships (our farm is surviving due to off farm income for the time being).

Hogs, Layersw, meat chickens, turkeys are all usually larger concentrated operations.

Small farms are not dead and they never will be.

They said in 1950s small farms are done, same with the 1960s, 1970s, 1980s, 1990s, 2000s, 2010s.

Absolutely. According to StasCan, about 97% of Canadian farms are family owned and operated (2016 I think). Maybe there are some large, corporate feedlots out west, I don't know. As you are well aware, may farms are incorporated for business purposes but that doesn't mean that the offices of the corporation aren't family members.

 

[brihard]

And if I recall correctly, the lower courts all struck down the provincial trade barriers as unconstitutional. The Supreme Court disagreed with all lower courts.

Yup, and once the Supreme Court rules on such a thing, that’s the ball game. SCC doesn’t rule on the wisdom or usefulness of such legislation, that’s not their job. They determine whether such public policy is within the lawful purview of that level of government. So this one goes back to the government and, ultimately if necessary, the voters. The winds have changed and we may hopefully see a bunch of these barriers fall.

 

[IKnowNothing]

Absolutely. According to StasCan, about 97% of Canadian farms are family owned and operated (2016 I think). Maybe there are some large, corporate feedlots out west, I don't know. As you are well aware, may farms are incorporated for business purposes but that doesn't mean that the offices of the corporation aren't family members.

20th century 100-200 acre family farm =/= 21st century financially viable farm operation owned by a family.

"In 2021, farms with a total land area of 2,240 acres and over accounted for only 8.9% of the total number of farms in Canada and contributed 37.3%($32.5 billion) of Canada’s total operating revenues (Chen and Clark 2023). ... By contrast, farms with a total land area of under 240 acres accounted for over half (52.3%) of the total farms in Canada in 2021 (Figure2), and contributed around one-quarter of Canada’s total operating revenues (24.9%; $21.6 billion)"

https://www.nfu.ca/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/Canadian-Ag-by-the-Numbers-2024.pdf

 

[foresterab]

Yep. If you want to practice forestry in B.C., Alberta and some other provinces, you have to be a Registered Professional Forester in that province. You’re a RPF from another province? You’re going to have apply, mentor and write the exam again in the new province. I’m sure that’s the same for many other professions as well.

Meanwhile, in other provinces like Manitoba, you just have to meet your employer’s requirements. If you go into business for yourself, you can just hang a shingle and call yourself a forester.

Seeing as how this is my profession I'll add a bit more. For most provinces there is a practical application period between applying to the provincial registration body before your write your exam that usually means you have 1-2 years experience + educational requirements. Differences in professional obligations vary a lot between provinces...

• an Registered Professional Forester (RPF) in BC is legally liable for their calls and certain roles legally require the designation to practice. Folks have gone to jail in BC for professional fraud within the profession.
• in Alberta you are required to register with the professional college to practice but it's not role binding on what jobs you can do as much (RPF, RPFT, P.Ag all overlap a ot)
• In Ontario its a requirement to have an RPF sign off on certain submissions (mostly management plans) but most operations do not require the designation.

If you are transferring from one province to another, as an already recognized professional that window is generally waived. Not all provinces have the professional college either so it varies significantly around the country.

This is not all bad as there are differences in the provincial legislation between working in Ontario vs. BC vs. Alberta and the employment market is also very different. I still struggle to wrap my mind around southern Ontario hardwood forest management but in Alberta I might be working for an oil and gas company dealing with surface rights....all within the same profession.

Frankly the system I prefer the most is the Ontario college where they have broken down the profession to a list of 27 competencies. If you graduate from a nationally accredited college program you get credit for 14 subjects...a university program gives you all 27. If you attend schooling in a related field (i.e. Biology) and have some work experience in the field you may fit somewhere between the two. The advantage of this system though is it is about 1) competency in the field - achieved through either education or experience - and 2) and is not tied directly to a single school's curriculum and 3) allows for professional progression/entry of more folks than other provinces allow.

 

[lenaitch]

20th century 100-200 acre family farm =/= 21st century financially viable farm operation owned by a family.

"In 2021, farms with a total land area of 2,240 acres and over accounted for only 8.9% of the total number of farms in Canada and contributed 37.3%($32.5 billion) of Canada’s total operating revenues (Chen and Clark 2023). ... By contrast, farms with a total land area of under 240 acres accounted for over half (52.3%) of the total farms in Canada in 2021 (Figure2), and contributed around one-quarter of Canada’s total operating revenues (24.9%; $21.6 billion)"

https://www.nfu.ca/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/Canadian-Ag-by-the-Numbers-2024.pdf

I don't think many are arguing that farming is as profitable as it once was or that in many cases, off-farm income is required. I don't know how data is calculated, or how things operate out west, but in Ontario, it seems that it is increasingly common to lease land for farming. We leased most of our land to a farmer who, himself owned about 200 acres but he farmed about 1200 in the area. We leased it to him for less than the going rate; we primarily wanted the reduced property tax rate. Primarily, it seems the only farms that are owned by large corporations were purchased for other uses (developers, etc.) and are simply in a holding pattern until whatever conditions are right.

Then there is New Brunswick, which seems to be divided between two corporations.

 

[lenaitch]

This kind of inflexibility irritates the Americans, and also resulted in Britain walking away from free trade talks:

Trump claims Canada ‘very tough to do business with,’ trade minister says no concessions

International Trade Minister Mary Ng explicitly says the federal government will not be making concessions on supply management.

www.ctvnews.ca

It's unfortunate, but there will be some pain to some industries to protect the rest of Canada from punitive tariffs.

They may be different than other countries or not to the same extent, but, the US has restrictions or limitations on the movement of goods, services and labour between states. They just don't like other nations' protections. It is similar to the myth that their agricultural sector isn't subsidized.

 

[Rifleman62]

Team Canada Quebec

Time for Quebec to join Canada. If they do not then say goodby to 2025-26 $13.6 billion, up a quarter billion from 2024-25 in annual equalization payments. This is included in the 2025-26 $29.3 billion through major transfers to Quebec.

Look at the savings. Nothing would have to be translated from English, you would not have to have a language profile for promotion, etc, etc.

Rifleman62:: If that's what Quebec wants, then analyze how much of the equalization payments Quebec gets from all sources of the oil and gas industry and deduct that from the payments. There is "no socially acceptability " reason to give Quebec dirty money.

Y.F Blanchet says he strongly opposes ANY pipeline from Western Canada through Quebec to the the Atlantic...Because it would sacrifice the prosperity and undermine the sovereignty of Quebec.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1887525339913433175

 

[Kirkhill]

Team Canada Quebec

Time for Quebec to join Canada. If they do not then say goodby to 2025-26 $13.6 billion, up a quarter billion from 2024-25 in annual equalization payments. This is included in the 2025-26 $29.3 billion through major transfers to Quebec.

Look at the savings. Nothing would have to be translated from English, you would not have to have a language profile for promotion, etc, etc.


Y.F Blanchet says he strongly opposes ANY pipeline from Western Canada through Quebec to the the Atlantic...Because it would sacrifice the prosperity and undermine the sovereignty of Quebec.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1887525339913433175

Right then.

Hudson's Bay it is then.

Self financing with the money not being shared with Quebec.

 

[calculus]

They may be different than other countries or not to the same extent, but, the US has restrictions or limitations on the movement of goods, services and labour between states. They just don't like other nations' protections. It is similar to the myth that their agricultural sector isn't subsidized.

Don't disagree, but this isn't about what they do, it's about what other countries do to restrict trade. Logic does not apply.

 

[Quirky]

the sovereignty of Quebec.

It's amazing to think what Canada could have been if Quebec wasn't Quebec.

 

[Kirkhill]

Team Canada Quebec

Time for Quebec to join Canada. If they do not then say goodby to 2025-26 $13.6 billion, up a quarter billion from 2024-25 in annual equalization payments. This is included in the 2025-26 $29.3 billion through major transfers to Quebec.

Look at the savings. Nothing would have to be translated from English, you would not have to have a language profile for promotion, etc, etc.


Y.F Blanchet says he strongly opposes ANY pipeline from Western Canada through Quebec to the the Atlantic...Because it would sacrifice the prosperity and undermine the sovereignty of Quebec.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1887525339913433175

https://www.cbc.ca/news/climate/quebec-hydro-drought-hydroelectricity-climate-1.7309366

Demand for cheap, clean hydropower is soaring. Can Quebec keep up?​

Low water levels forced Hydro-Quebec to cut electricity exports last year​

Benjamin Shingler · CBC News · Posted: Aug 31, 2024 2:00 AM MDT | Last Updated: August 31, 2024

the public utility's reservoir levels fell far below average in 2023, during an unusually hot and dry year across Canada,

In its annual report, Hydro-Quebec blamed "scant snow cover" as well as "lower-than-usual spring runoff and modest summer and fall precipitation in northern Quebec" for the lower than usual "inflows to the company's large reservoirs."

That meant the public utility was forced to cut back exports last year to 23 Terawatt hours (TWh) — about nine per cent less than the year prior.

B.C. Hydro was even worse off, and was forced to import more power from the U.S. last year because of dry conditions. Manitoba's hydro production also dropped by 12 per cent.

Overall, exports to the U.S. from Canada fell nearly 25 per cent last year, to the lowest level since 2016.

Just a reminder where all that water came from



8500 Years ago Northern Quebec, Hudson's Bay and The Barren Lands were one big glacier.
7000 Years ago Hudson's Bay was open water seasonally but the Barren Lands and Northern Quebec were two separate glaciers.
5000 Years ago The Barren Lands, Northern Quebec and Hudson's Bay looked pretty much like today as all the ice had melted and created lakes.

Those lakes are the ones we are emptying today.

And all of the rivers that run east west, especially those fed from the Rocky Mountain spine, have been drying up from south to north as the mountain glaciers all melted over the last 10,000 years.

Hydro is not a reliable source of energy.

 

[Kirkhill]

Movement from the Natural Resources Minister

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/west-east-pipeline-jonathan-wilkinson-1.7452406

But

Lorne Gunter: Quebec's Legault scuttles notion of eastern pipeline, national co-operation

While Quebec receives half of national equalization payments, largely from Alberta oil, Legault continues to oppose a pipeline to the east

edmontonjournal.com

Which led Lorne Gunter to ask this:

When Alberta Premier Danielle Smith stood alone after the first emergency tariff summit of premiers and the prime minister in January — when she refused to sign their joint statement — she was roundly criticized (and unjustly so) for not going along with the national consensus.

So how come Legault isn’t facing similar criticism for undermining national efforts to strengthen the economy and nation?

 

[Quirky]

Which led Lorne Gunter to ask this:

It's delicious to see Quebec get a kick in the teeth before these tariffs are implemented.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/layoffs-tariff-threats-1.7451146

 

[Fishbone Jones]

This kind of inflexibility irritates the Americans, and also resulted in Britain walking away from free trade talks:

Trump claims Canada ‘very tough to do business with,’ trade minister says no concessions

International Trade Minister Mary Ng explicitly says the federal government will not be making concessions on supply management.

www.ctvnews.ca

It's unfortunate, but there will be some pain to some industries to protect the rest of Canada from punitive tariffs.

Bad move for negotiations. Never, say no. Once you say no, and you walk, you close all options to find a win win. There may be new ideas or compromises but you just put it all in the shitter.

Talk not walk. It's why good negotiations take time and patience

All she has done is put Trump’s back up, given him more reason to retaliate and created a rift in a very important area of trade talks. Such an amateur move made by a Trade Minister.

 

[OldSolduer]

Bad move for negotiations. Never, say no. Once you say no, and you walk, you close all options to find a win win. There may be new ideas or compromises but you just put it all in the shitter.

Talk not walk. It's why good negotiations take time and patience

All she has done is put Trump’s back up, given him more reason to retaliate and created a rift in a very important area of trade talks. Such an amateur move made by a Trade Minister.

An amateur Trade Minister.

 

[Good2Golf]

An amateur Trade Minister.

The People’s Republic of China will try to do better next time…

"CSIS Assessed that Mary Ng was Unwittingly Implicated In This Interference Network"

According to three national security sources, Liberal cabinet minister Mary Ng was identified in CSIS investigations as one of 11 Toronto-area candidates clandestinely supported by Chinese Consulate

www.thebureau.news