CAN-USA Tariff Strife (split from various pol threads)

[The Bread Guy]

The US does NOT rely on Canadian oil to power its nation ...

If we believe the US gets between 50 and 60% of its crude from Canada, there's a case to be made on the bit in yellow is true at least to some extent.

Down side for us, though, is that 90+% of Canada's black gold heads south, which (as others have discussed in detail way better than I can) leaves us vulnerable, especially given we can't just keep the oil, move it and process it all in Canada.

 

[Czech_pivo]

If you're interested in the minutiae of such things, here's the trade order:

America First Trade Policy

January 20, 2025 MEMORANDUM FOR THE SECRETARY OF STATE THE SECRETARY OF THE TREASURY THE SECRETARY OF DEFENSE THE SECRETARY OF COMMERCE THE SECRETARY OF

www.whitehouse.gov

Also attached if link doesn't work.

Key bits:

An area of concern that I've been wondering about is the banking sector. Our banks have had basically carte blanche access to the US in terms for expansion and takeovers for a number of decades now, to the point that TD Bank has more bank branches in the US than in Canada. Scotiabank just bought into Key Bank in terms of a 15% equity stake just a handful of months ago. BMO is a player in the Chicago/Midwest area. TD is a top player along the US East Coast. I've wondered why Trump hasn't made a mention of this. I feel that this is slumbering issue. Same with access to our airlines and telecoms. Waiting for the shoe to drop.

 

[lenaitch]

An area of concern that I've been wondering about is the banking sector. Our banks have had basically carte blanche access to the US in terms for expansion and takeovers for a number of decades now, to the point that TD Bank has more bank branches in the US than in Canada. Scotiabank just bought into Key Bank in terms of a 15% equity stake just a handful of months ago. BMO is a player in the Chicago/Midwest area. TD is a top player along the US East Coast. I've wondered why Trump hasn't made a mention of this. I feel that this is slumbering issue. Same with access to our airlines and telecoms. Waiting for the shoe to drop.

No doubt to be included in the USMCA which he wants to open back up early.

 

[Good2Golf]

If we believe the US gets between 50 and 60% of its crude from Canada, there's a case to be made on the bit in yellow is true at least to some extent.

43% from Canada

(net 3.6MBBD/day from Canada of 10.15MBBD/day total)

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs) - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

www.eia.gov

US still exports MORE oil than it imports, 10.15MBBD out vs 8.51MBBD in per day, or a 19.3% oil SURPLUS.

Down side for us, though, is that 90+% of Canada's black gold heads south, which (as others have discussed in detail way better than I can) leaves us vulnerable, especially given we can't just keep the oil, move it and process it all in Canada.

A stupid move.

If Canada shut off the oil taps tomorrow, the US would stop exporting 0.8MBBD/day to Canada and keep another 3.62MBBD/day that it otherwise sells to Asia and Europe. This is why Canada’s cutting off its nose to spite its face threat of cutting oil is stupid and Smith’s non-apocalyptic perspective shared with Trump is a much better approach.

The issue remains Canada is an irresponsible security laggard whose inability to deal substantively with Chinese interference is perceived (reasonably so) as an existential threat to US continental security.

 

[Kirkhill]

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba/trade-united-states-tariffs-kinew-trump-1.7437399

Northern port gives Manitoba card to play in potential Canada-U.S. trade spat, premier says​

Churchill also has 'huge' opportunities when it comes to mining, agriculture and energy: Premier Wab Kinew​

Ozten Shebahkeget · CBC News · Posted: Jan 21, 2025 2:26 PM MST | Last Updated: 13 minutes ago

Manitoba also has a card to play because it's technically a maritime province, Kinew said. The northern town of Churchill is connected to rail lines and has a deepsea port — things that could help ensure Arctic sovereignty and national security, he said.

Churchill also has "huge" opportunities when it comes to mining, agriculture and energy, said Kinew.

Manitoba Premier Wab Kinew says he and other premiers continue to band together to remind politicians south of the border of the critical trade relationship between Canada and the U.S.

Canadian leaders have made a number of trips in recent months to advocate against 25 per cent tariffs proposed by U.S. President Donald Trump, and Kinew says a group of premiers will head to Washington on Feb. 12 to continue those efforts.

"If there's a Trump tariff tax, that's going to raise prices on consumers in the States, and I don't think anyone wants that," he said at a Tuesday news conference in Brandon.

He said he has been talking with leaders in North and South Dakota about the implications of potential tariffs. Politicians from both states have influence in Trump's new administration and recognize the importance of cross-border agricultural trade, said Kinew.

...

Danielle, Scott, Wab - Churchill

...

I hope Wab considers running for PM someday.

....

Aces in the hole -

Kristi Noem - Ex Governor of South Dakota now Trump's Secretary of Homeland Security
Doug Burgum - Ex Governor of North Dakota now Trump's Secretary of the Interior
Chris Wright - Oil Executive now Trump's Secretary of Energy

...

Trump has set up his External Revenue Service. He needs that to collect Tariffs. Tariffs can be seen as taxes. They can also be seen as fines.

My sense is that Trump sees Tariffs more as fines but, like most North American police departments, also sees them as a means of financing operations.

How pleased would the police be if people stopped breaking the law?

...

I think @Good2Golf is closest to the mark. Real estate agents live by a mantra: Location. Location. Location.
I suggest Trump's mantra now is: China. China. China. Especially when it comes to foreign affairs.

Foreign interference.
Bogus school visas.
Temporary Work Permits.
Canadian bank transparency.

Add in a bit of Border theatre.

And, of course, 2.5% of GDP to Defence (2% was yesterday's news. The price has gone up. Even 2.5% may not be enough).

...

My biggest concern is that Trudeau is thoroughly enjoying using Trump and Smith as punching bags. That is always a winning strategy for Ottawa and the Liberal Party. And Trudeau has no skin in the game.

He has no incentive to resolve this issue in a timely manner.

 

[The Bread Guy]

43% from Canada

(net 3.6MBBD/day from Canada of 10.15MBBD/day total)

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs) - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

www.eia.gov

US still exports MORE oil than it imports, 10.15MBBD out vs 8.51MBBD in per day, or a 19.3% oil SURPLUS.

You're right re: they send more than they get overall. The 10.15MBBD/day, though, is how much the US sends, not receives. If I'm doing my own math right from the source both of us cite, looking at Canada's net, almost 4 barrels out of 10 coming into the U.S. daily still comes from Canada, eh. Admittedly, not the 52% the chart says, but still pretty honkin'.

If Canada shut off the oil taps tomorrow, the US would stop exporting 0.8MBBD/day to Canada and keep another 3.62MBBD/day that it otherwise sells to Asia and Europe. This is why Canada’s cutting off its nose to spite its face threat of cutting oil is stupid and Smith’s non-apocalyptic perspective shared with Trump is a much better approach.

Fair ball. Politically, though, the whole "who's willing to take a hit as everyone in Canada pays a price if tariffs hit?" question will remain debated. With "truth" still to be in the eye of the beholder.

... The issue remains Canada is an irresponsible security laggard whose inability to deal substantively with Chinese interference is perceived (reasonably so) as an existential threat to US continental security.

Agreed it's a threat to security AND one that's been sloppily managed (to be kind), but have to agree to disagree on the "existential" nature of the threat to the continent.

 

[Retired AF Guy]

Apparently, last night President Trump stated that he might bring in tariffs against Canada on 01 February.

 

[Kirkhill]

You're right re: they send more than they get overall. The 10.15MBBD/day, though, is how much the US sends, not receives. If I'm doing my own math right from the source both of us cite, looking at Canada's net, almost 4 barrels out of 10 coming into the U.S. daily still comes from Canada, eh. Admittedly, not the 52% the chart says, but still pretty honkin'.
View attachment 90685

Fair ball. Politically, though, the whole "who's willing to take a hit as everyone in Canada pays a price if tariffs hit?" question will remain debated. With "truth" still to be in the eye of the beholder.

Agreed it's a threat to security AND one that's been sloppily managed (to be kind), but have to agree to disagree on the "existential" nature of the threat to the continent.

Existential is also in the eye of the beholder. And the critical eye is that of POTUS47.

...

Also, I wonder what Canadians would perceive as an existential threat? Beyond POTUS47 that is.

 

[Good2Golf]

My biggest concern is that Trudeau is thoroughly enjoying using Trump and Smith as punching bags. That is always a winning strategy for Ottawa and the Liberal Party. And Trudeau has no skin in the game.

I think he may think himself smarter than he is, but he has set the LPC up for a mega-shellacking…

Existential is also in the eye of the beholder. And the critical eye is that of POTUS47.

...

Also, I wonder what Canadians would perceive as an existential threat? Beyond POTUS47 that is.

Canadians might have their eyes opened significantly come next Friday (31 Jan) when Justice Hogue releases her final report on Foreign Interference in Canada.

I’ve heard rumblings from inside the DC Beltway that if the report is muffled, then 47 is going to release much of what the US has on China in Canada, including all the names of the compromised and/or complicit.

If folks though *tough talk on economics was exciting…

 

[brihard]

I think he may think himself smarter than he is, but he has set the LPC up for a mega-shellacking…



Canadians might have their eyes opened significantly come next Friday (31 Jan) when Justice Hogue releases her final report on Foreign Interference in Canada.

I’ve heard rumblings from inside the DC Beltway that if the report is muffled, then 47 is going to release much of what the US has on China in Canada, including all the names of the compromised and/or complicit.

If folks though touch talk on economics was exciting…
View attachment 90686

If the U.S. wants to release what they have from their own intelligence, great. Their sources are theirs to partly or fully expose as they see fit. Hopefully they’d also be willing to let Canadian authorities disclose and use that information in court as evidence and see it challenged in the course of prosecutions as applicable.

 

[Czech_pivo]

If the U.S. wants to release what they have from their own intelligence, great. Their sources are theirs to partly or fully expose as they see fit. Hopefully they’d also be willing to let Canadian authorities disclose and use that information in court as evidence and see it challenged in the course of prosecutions as applicable.

Here’s a thought, their source(s) could be one of ‘us’ who decided that they didn’t like the ‘lack of seriousness’ or the ‘lack of attention’ this received here and decided to inform the Americans.
Wouldn’t that be something….

 

[Good2Golf]

If the U.S. wants to release what they have from their own intelligence, great. Their sources are theirs to partly or fully expose as they see fit.

I believe that would be the case. It’s up to Canada and what it discloses itself, and its plan to address the interference.

Hopefully they’d also be willing to let Canadian authorities disclose and use that information in court as evidence and see it challenged in the course of prosecutions as applicable.

I actually think there would be an interim step that we in general would not see, that is the US would provide evidentiary-grade info/intel to agencies that it believes are not the cause, or contributions deliberately to Canada’s extant, de facto willful ignorance.

 

[Brad Sallows]

If the U.S. wants to release what they have from their own intelligence, great. Their sources are theirs to partly or fully expose as they see fit. Hopefully they’d also be willing to let Canadian authorities disclose and use that information in court as evidence and see it challenged in the course of prosecutions as applicable.

"Gosh, I hope nothing bad happens if the US airs our dirty laundry."

 

[brihard]

"Gosh, I hope nothing bad happens if the US airs our dirty laundry."

Nope, I mean exactly what I said, precisely how I said it, exactly at face value. If they make that decision and it should serve Canada’s law enforcement and security interests, great.

Don’t mistake the significant and valid information sharing and disclosure concerns I raise in these discussions with me not wanting issues with our national security to be decisively and openly addressed. I can recognize the complexity of the problem without liking that complexity. If a foreign party has their own sourced info that can shortcut our legal barriers, cool.

Am I actually optimistic we would see this happen in a way conducive to judicial use in Canada? No I’m not. But a man can dream.

 

[Kirkhill]

In support of Trump's position -

One of Trump's Executive Orders required withdrawal from the World Health Organization.

Which apparently resulted in this:

Pai said Tuesday that “everything went crazy” at the WHO headquarters when Trump’s executive order was signed Monday.

“Everybody here is absolutely stressed, devastated, and literally freaking out because some of their programs at WHO are extremely reliant on U.S. government funding,” said Pai, who is also a global health professor at McGill University in Montreal.

“They’re not even sure how to keep the lights on, keep their staff working, keep the programs going, so it’s a pretty massive crisis.”

Dr. Madhukar Pai, the Canada Research Chair in Epidemiology and Global Health, is at the WHO headquarters in Geneva this week

U.S. pulling out of WHO a threat to public health around the world, including Canada: doctor

Pai says if there is a major disease outbreak and the U.S. isn't looped into the worldwide response, it would spread -- likely into Canada.

nationalpost.com

...

Why can't this international organization operate just because the US withdraws its support?

....

This is what Trump and the vast majority of Americans are concerned about. Every international body is reliant on US taxpayer money. And nobody else ponies up anything like their share. The institutions have been in place since 1944. Their budgets were set in 1944.

The world no longer looks like it did in 1944.

The Yanks can't foot everyone else's bill.

 

[Kirkhill]

Nope, I mean exactly what I said, precisely how I said it, exactly at face value. If they make that decision and it should serve Canada’s law enforcement and security interests, great.

Don’t mistake the significant and valid information sharing and disclosure concerns I raise in these discussions with me not wanting issues with our national security to be decisively and openly addressed. I can recognize the complexity of the problem without liking that complexity. If a foreign party has their own sourced info that can shortcut our legal barriers, cool.

Am I actually optimistic we would see this happen in a way conducive to judicial use in Canada? No I’m not. But a man can dream.

Not all information needs to go before the courts to have consequential value. And not every miscreant needs to go to jail, as satisfying as that might be.

 

[brihard]

Not all information needs to go before the courts to have consequential value. And not every miscreant needs to go to jail, as satisfying as that might be.

Yes, I’m very well aware. I’m just engaging the hypothetical that was raised by G2G a few posts up.

 

[Fishbone Jones]

In support of Trump's position -

One of Trump's Executive Orders required withdrawal from the World Health Organization.

Which apparently resulted in this:

U.S. pulling out of WHO a threat to public health around the world, including Canada: doctor

Pai says if there is a major disease outbreak and the U.S. isn't looped into the worldwide response, it would spread -- likely into Canada.

nationalpost.com

...

Why can't this international organization operate just because the US withdraws its support?

....

This is what Trump and the vast majority of Americans are concerned about. Every international body is reliant on US taxpayer money. And nobody else ponies up anything like their share. The institutions have been in place since 1944. Their budgets were set in 1944.

The world no longer looks like it did in 1944.

The Yanks can't foot everyone else's bill.

Perhaps soros and gates will pick up the slack.

Why The World Health Organization Treats Bill Gates Like A President

The World Health Organization (WHO) is a specialized agency of the United Nations that is concerned with international public health .

www.modernghana.com

Maybe the new Conservative government should have a hard look at the WHO also. And while we looking for other expensive stuff to save money on the Paris Climate Agreement could use a magnifying glass also.

If for no other reason than we can't afford any offshore expenses until we pull ourselves out of the hole trudeau has dug for us.

 

[OldSolduer]

Perhaps soros and gates will pick up the slack.

Why The World Health Organization Treats Bill Gates Like A President

The World Health Organization (WHO) is a specialized agency of the United Nations that is concerned with international public health .

www.modernghana.com

Maybe the new Conservative government should have a hard look at the WHO also. And while we looking for other expensive stuff to save money on the Paris Climate Agreement could use a magnifying glass also.

If for no other reason than we can't afford any offshore expenses until we pull ourselves out of the hole trudeau has dug for us.

If Bill Gates is so popular he can fund it.

Oh but he gave half his money to his ex when they divorced.....I am still curious about that.

 

[Good2Golf]

Some thoughts about how Canada can/should move forward, instead of pretending that Trump’s words and actions are a huge surprise that no one could have predicted, and for which no preparatory actions could have been taken…

Special Dispatch: Here comes the chaos

Who's jazzed for the next four (+) years!?

www.readtheline.ca