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CAN-USA Tariff Strife (split from various pol threads)

Remius said:
That is an easy prediction though.
Click to expand...
You’d think, right? But some seem to think LeBlanc and Joly pitching a 3-minute video about $1.3B of promises to be a better neighbor will smooth things out.
 
Speaking of cars. Parts and sub assemblies go back and forth over the border 6-10 times.

Are we/they going to apply the tariff everytime it crosses?

That could add, accumulated, add up to150% - 250% in tariffs.

I think.
 
Fishbone Jones said:
... Perhaps we can use all the cocaine they ship north as a counterpoint.
Click to expand...
... or, since the U.S. Sec of Commerce is concerned about showing respect and stopping what's killing citizens, maybe other stuff that comes north too.
torontosun.com

WARMINGTON: Border battle fails to include gun smuggling into Canada from U.S.

Sure Trump wants to blame Canada for the soft border problems. But U.S. is no angel on that file, either.
torontosun.com torontosun.com
Also archived here if link above doesn't work.
 
Fishbone Jones said:
Speaking of cars. Parts and sub assemblies go back and forth over the border 6-10 times.

Are we/they going to apply the tariff everytime it crosses?

That could add, accumulated, add up to150% - 250% in tariffs.

I think.
Click to expand...

Unless he remits the tariff after the unit has been exported.
 
Fishbone Jones said:
Safety minister in Washington for 11th hour tariff plea as US Senate hears of lethal Canadian drug lab.

www.westernstandard.news

Safety minister in Washington for 11th hour tariff plea as US Senate hears of lethal Canadian drug lab

Public Safety Minister David McGuinty has headed to Washington, DC, in a last-ditch effort to avert a tariff war with the US. Tariffs are set to go into place on Saturday.
www.westernstandard.news www.westernstandard.news


Perhaps we can use all the cocaine they ship north as a counterpoint.
Click to expand...

Drugs, guns, lots of people too… The border is definitely porous in both directions. I fully expect we’re going to see a significant 2017-esque uptick in asylum seekers.

Fishbone Jones said:
Speaking of cars. Parts and sub assemblies go back and forth over the border 6-10 times.

Are we/they going to apply the tariff everytime it crosses?

That could add, accumulated, add up to150% - 250% in tariffs.

I think.
Click to expand...

I’m wondering this too- the auto sector could be horrendously vulnerable, more than most sectors. The supply chains are also not easily substitutable; a U.S. grocery store can jack prices 15% and buy its eggs from a slightly pricier producer in the U.S.. Auto assemblers can’t quickly substitute transmissions, shocks, or engines from someone else sitting there with slack capacity. I think that very quickly the auto sector is gonna scream bloody murder… But the devil will be in the details. If you see anything that drills down in this, please share.

10% on energy is gonna suck, but also is not all going to be quickly substitutable. Refineries are configured for specific inputs.

Agriculture could get smoked. People may not be able to buy the same type of fruit or vegetable from a non-tariff source, but enough will simply switch up what fruits and veg they consume. Stuff like eggs, dairy, meat… Our producers could be in a world of hurt.

In the coming week we’ll probably see some excellent analyses come out of specifically which products and manufacturers are in the most trouble here. No matter how one slices it, this is exceptionally bad for Canada.

I suspect we’ll see more fall in the dollar, too.
 
Eggs and dairy are a constant friction point due to supply management; not much crosses the border in either direction.
 
dapaterson said:
Eggs and dairy are a constant friction point due to supply management; not much crosses the border in either direction.
Click to expand...
About a third of a billion in dairy and eggs from Canada to the U.S. annually. Not massive in the grand scheme of things, but not nothing.
 
Fishbone Jones said:
China the United States only becomes your friend until they can rape you of your resources and dominate you.😉 The host nation falls prey to the effects of Stockholm Syndrome. They don’t see any problem with China the United States in charge of things. At least not until the next Chinese virus escapes their lab American populist gets elected and they start welding you up inside your living cubicle using economic force to make you submit to annexation.
Click to expand...
The substitutions aren't really a big stretch. Something every smaller power living next to a large power should keep in mind.

1738449765585.png

1738449789850.png
 
Rifleman62 said:

There is zero funds for Border Security. It was not in the last Budget (obviously Trudeau didn't think it important last Apr 2024). This is a new funding requirement (Supply Motion) that needs the approval of Parliament. Guess what, it's prorogued. When the Parliament next sits a month or so from now, there will probably be a Confidence Motion. ​

What money? Not funded.

Canada is investing $1.3 billion to bolster security at the border and strengthen the immigration system, all while keeping Canadians safe. This includes $667.5M for the Royal Canadian Mounted Police, $355.4M for the Canada Border Services Agency, $180M over 6 years for the Communications Security Establishment, $77.7M for Health Canada, and $20M over five years for Public Safety Canada.

Do you get it? $1.3 Billion over 6 years or less than $217 Million a year. Peanuts in the scheme of things.
Click to expand...
My intended point was that Ambrose was saying the government hasn’t even talked about fentanyl or tried to address Trump’s concerns about it which isn’t accurate since they have talked about it and made an attempt to address Trump’s concerns after he raised them. I wasn’t making a judgement on the effectiveness of the new measures.

Seeing the government’s already started implementing parts of the new border package such as leasing new helicopters for the RCMP, not having a supply motion doesn’t mean nothing new is being done to secure the border. Presumably they are re-allocating money and using contingency funds. They might also be able to spend more under existing approved programs, like expanding the purchase of scanners and inspections of shipping containers by the CBSA under the existing program to combat auto-theft which would also help find fentanyl, and then reconcile the spending after the fact in the next supplementary estimates.


As to whether Trudeau thought border security was important in April 2024, a quick search of the approved Budget 2024 shows it did include new border security related measures and funding. Under Chapter 5 there is $43 million over 3 years to crack down on auto thefts of which $28 is specifically for the CBSA to enhance screening of shipping containers at ports, $23 million over 3 years for the RCMP to prevent migrant smuggling, $325 million over 5 years to upgrade immigration holding centres to enhance CBSA’s ability to detain high-risk individuals, $36 million over 2 years to the IRCC to support the re-imposition of visa’s for Mexican citizens travelling to Canada, $108 million over 5 years for TC and RCMP to improve screening of workers at ports and airports. Besides covering increased DND funding, Chapter 7 also has $30 over 5 years for the CBSA to tackle money laundering and other financial crimes by criminal and terrorist organizations. Under Chapter 8 there is $744 million over 5 years to the IRCC, CBSA, and IRB to speed up the processing of asylum claims and speed up the removal of failed claimants.

So that’s ~$1.3 Billion over 2-5 years for border security approved in Budget 2024 and now another $1.3 Billion over 5-6 years announced as part of the new border package. Seeing things always span multiple years there’s probably money and programs from previous budgets still rolling out. That’s not insignificant when targeted to address specific problems.
 
dapaterson said:
Eggs and dairy are a constant friction point due to supply management; not much crosses the border in either direction.
Click to expand...

Exactly. And there is a good reason: Just about every first world country grossly overproduces those, including Canada and the US, with the attendant race to the bottom that ruins farmers. The point of supply management of those in Canada is to actually restrict the amount on the market to a price point where supply and demand meet while the farmers can earn a reasonable (not a great, not a fantastic, not a rich) living for the long hours of labour they have to put into production.
 
I hate to ask this, but… should the P-8 and F-35 contracts be put on hold?

I actually think they are the best aircraft for the CF, but are they the best choice for Canada?

Exactly how secure is our ability to access things like AEGIS at this time?


On a more personal note, is looking at where something is made “patriotic” or “reactionary?”


Edited to add: Cancel Amazon Prime? Netflix? AppleTV? Why do I have all of those anyway?

Shop at Kent instead of Home Depot?

But the economies are so integrated would any of that make a difference anyway? Those integrated economies are why this will hurt the US as well… U would hate to be in the auto industry right now.
 
Last edited:
Self-inflicted wounds...


Trump slaps tariffs on Canada, Mexico, China, risking higher prices for U.S. consumers​

The new levies on America’s top trade partners could drive prices higher for cars, electronics, lumber and more, threatening to crimp an economy that the president has vowed to improve.


"This is a beautiful, beautiful example of promises made, promises kept by President Trump," said the senior administration official.

But economists have found the tariffs Trump imposed on China during his first term did little to accomplish those goals. Instead, they drove up prices for many imports, led to a net loss of manufacturing jobs and reduced corporate investments. Nearly all the revenue collected from Trump’s previous tariffs on China went to payments he sent to American farmers to offset their losses from tariffs China imposed in response. The levies also didn’t generate significant concessions from Beijing, which has failed to meet many of its commitments under a trade deal negotiated during Trump’s first term.

The United Steelworkers International, which has pushed for trade reforms to protect U.S. steel workers, warned that the sweeping tariffs could have a negative impact on workers.

"These tariffs don’t just hurt Canada. They threaten the stability of industries on both sides of the border," said David McCall, president of the United Steelworkers International.

www.nbcnews.com

Trump slaps tariffs on Canada, Mexico, China, risking higher prices for U.S. consumers

The new levies on America’s top trade partners could drive prices higher for cars, electronics, lumber and more, threatening to crimp an economy that the president has vowed to improve.
www.nbcnews.com www.nbcnews.com
 
daftandbarmy said:
$800B worth of trade with the US last year, and a 25% tax on virtually everything now. This should be interesting to watch as 'the budget takes care of itself' ;)

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But it won't be inflationary in the U.S. some say - we'll see.

Nothing on the whitehouse.gov superego of POTUS47 as of this post, or in the Federal Register, but his id is sharing this as of about 40 minutes before this post ...
1738452536380.png
... with an even harder beating to come if anyone dares to respond ...
1738452924747.png
On the pharmaceutical front, wonder if all those Americans coming to Canada to have their prescriptions filled with cheaper (because of bulk buying) drugs will continue to be able to do so once their prices go up? We'll see ...

Nothing yet from PMJT, but this from this afternoon about "bold, transformative actions to eliminate regulatory barriers to internal trade, encourage free movement of labour and further standardize regulations across Canada" (allegedly, anyway):

Committee on Internal Trade discusses bold actions to enhance Canada’s internal market - Canada.ca

Yesterday, at the Committee on Internal Trade (CIT) meeting, the Honourable Anita Anand, Minister of Transport and Internal Trade, and her provincial and territorial counterparts discussed bold, transformative actions to eliminate regulatory barriers to internal trade, encourage free movement of...
www.canada.ca www.canada.ca

Bit of MSM ...
www.ctvnews.ca

Trump initiates trade war, signing order hitting Canada with massive tariffs; Trudeau to retaliate

U.S. President Donald Trump made good on his threat to hit Canada with massive tariffs, signing an executive order imposing them Saturday.
www.ctvnews.ca www.ctvnews.ca
www.theguardian.com

Trump tariffs: which countries are affected and what does this mean?

Imports from Mexico and Canada will be taxed at 25% and China 10% – but US consumers are likely to pay the price
www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com
financialpost.com

Trump signs executive order imposing 25 per cent tariffs on Canada starting Tuesday

Canadian energy to face 10 per cent tariff; orders reportedly include retaliation clause if Canada responds in kind
financialpost.com financialpost.com
www.upi.com

Trump imposes tariffs on Mexico, Canada, China linked to fentanyl crisis - UPI.com

The Trump administration is following through on its promise to impose 25% tariffs on goods imported from Mexico and Canada and raise tariffs on Chinese goods on Saturday.
www.upi.com www.upi.com
 
Baz said:
I hate to ask this, but… should the P-8 and F-35 contracts be put on hold?

I actually think they are the best aircraft for the CF, but are they the best choice for Canada?

Exactly how secure is our ability to access things like AEGIS at this time?


On a more personal note, is looking at where something is made “patriotic” or “reactionary?”
Click to expand...
The P-8 order might actually be a small leverage point. Doesn’t the P-8 production line shut down without our order? That might get Boeing talking in Trump’s ear.

If I’m not mistaken, FELEX/HCM minimized use of US equipment to avoid the complexity of ITAR and working with the US. Unfortunately it seems the CSC project has gone the other direction and been increasing US content over time.
 
NearingZenith said:
The P-8 order might actually be a small leverage point. Doesn’t the P-8 production line shut down without our order? That might get Boeing talking in Trump’s ear.
Click to expand...
Oh no....Bombardier be like
Happy Jonah Hill GIF
 
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