CAN-USA Tariff Strife (split from various pol threads)

[Kirkhill]

Good explanation of Trump's long term plans and why he is using tariffs.

Ian Lee: This is Trump's plan for global economic domination

A paper by one of the president's cabinet picks sets out the strategy behind tariff threats

nationalpost.com

This podcast was previously posted but it includes Ian Lee making his case to Brian Lilley.

The reason Trump plans to crush Canada that our politicians just don’t get: Full Comment podcast

Carlo Dade and Ian Lee examine what the 'America First' advisers around U.S. President Donald Trump really think

nationalpost.com

From the article posted by QV.

Economics not Guns.

Miran clearly indicates the U.S. will use its economic might — not its military might — as its primary instrument of coercion to achieve its strategic objectives.

CRTC on the table during CUSMA negotiations.

Moreover, Trump has stated he will create the architecture of a new world order without using soldiers and the military as the principal force de frappe. Or more accurately, the U.S. “soldiers” deployed to increase the hegemon’s power will be Google, Apple, Meta, Nvidia, Microsoft and other American tech giants.

Finance on the table

Miran documents and analyzes why Trump believes that the entire postwar international financial architecture, variously called the Bretton Woods system or simply multilateralism, has harmed American interests.

He states clearly that friend and foe alike took advantage of the U.S. in demanding and obtaining full access to American markets while protecting some segments of their own markets from entry by American corporations.

Security and Access linked (2% vs Tariffs)

Even worse, according to Miran, since 1945, the U.S. spent trillions on national defence to protect its allies. In 2024, the U.S. Department of Defence spent approximately $1 trillion. Miran notes that many allies did not contribute the two per cent of GDP agreed upon years ago by NATO signatories and thus were free riders benefiting from the U.S. military umbrella.

The US has tariff room to play with

Miran notes that as the U.S. has the lowest effective tariff rate in the world at three per cent per the World Trade Organization, it has greater latitude to raise its tariff rates. Miran clearly sees tariffs as a major policy tool to drive the rebalancing to reduce the value of the U.S. dollar relative to other currencies to improve the competitiveness of American manufacturing.

Security vs Tariffs again

This approach is additionally justified, Miran argues, by the enormous annual spending (currently $1 trillion annually) of the U.S. defence department to protect allies around the world, which Trump believes to be unfair.

In Miran’s words, “tariffs create negotiating leverage for incentivizing better terms from the rest of the world on both trade and security terms” because “national security and trade are joined at the hip.” This allows Trump to claim that it is a “privilege and not a right” for any foreign firm to enter the U.S. market.

Indeed, Miran argues for a “much stronger demarcation between friend, foe and neutral trading partner.” Friends, he describes, “are inside the security and economic umbrella, but there is more burden sharing” and “may experience more favourable trade or currency terms.”

“Those outside the security umbrella will also find themselves outside friendly arrangements for international trade and easy access to the U.S. consumer,” he adds. “They will have more aggressive costs imposed on them via tariffs and other policies.”

...

This is not novel.

We have enhanced military and civil co-operation in the past in order to secure access to the US market and protect Canadian jobs. PET did the same with Europe - buying German tanks for trade.

 

[Remius]

Because Canada has been so active about the Chinese and Russian threats…

I’m sorry but Canada getting all high and mighty now about Nationalism against America is a little farcical.

This isn’t about whataboutisms.

Overt Economic threats (or any other overt ones) are far more likely to have a bigger response than subtle covert ones.

If Putin or Xi said publicly that they wanted to annex Canada and started exerting economic pressure to do it you would likely see the same response.

Counter US sentiment has been a feature of the Canadian psyche since 1776.

 

[ArmyRick]

This isn’t about whataboutisms.

OK, lets rephrase it. Its the Liberals total lack of integrity.

Russian and Chinese threats? Deny it, hire a special "rapporteur", finally bring up a parliamentary commission, maybe slightly acknowledge it.

And then we look at the USA. Our LPC has been shit talking Trump and MAGA for 4 years. There is going to be nasty repercussions.

 

[QV]

It's time to grow up, set aside petty insufferable jealousy that is the anti-American sentiment, and get on the Trump train. If Canada plays the US's game it will be a prosperous and respected nation with some middle power clout once again. We ought be grateful the most powerful and wealthy nation is our neighbor and culturally closest ally, and we should aim to be a solid ally back.

Or, we remain the LPC's corrupt playground and we whither, fracture, and die.

 

[Kirkhill]

US subsidizes Canada to the tune of 200 BUSD.

Canada can only identify something in the 50-100 BUSD range based on energy flow.

...

What if Trump is linking security into that calculation?

GDP 2024 - 2188 BCAD
National Defence - 30 BCAD
% GDP - 1.4%

NATO 2014 shortfall - 2% - 1.4% = 0.6% = 13 BCAD Annually for the past 10 years
NATO 2025 shortfall - 3% - 1.4% = 1.6% = 34 BCAD Annually going forwards
Trump 2025 shortfall - 5% - 1.4% = 3.6% = 77 BCAD Annually going forwards

77 BCAD at 1.4 CAD/USD = 55 BUSD

Do we get benefit from being on the same continent as NORAD with the full spectrum of NORAD assets? Including BMD? Should we be paying for them?

Energy plus security might push us into the 100-150 BUSD range that could be construed as a subsidy.

....

I presume that because we don't want to pay for BMD coverage we won't be making any requests if missiles start flying.

 

[Remius]

OK, lets rephrase it. Its the Liberals total lack of integrity.

Russian and Chinese threats? Deny it, hire a special "rapporteur", finally bring up a parliamentary commission, maybe slightly acknowledge it.

How many people here keep saying Russia Russia Russia Hoax?

Has anyone denied Russian and or Chinese influence? Can more be done? Yes. But look at the rest of what I wrote.

And then we look at the USA. Our LPC has been shit talking Trump and MAGA for 4 years. There is going to be nasty repercussions.

Sure. That may have more to do with sensitivities then. You would have to be Pretty thin skinned to start a trade war over what a liberal politician says to curry favour with one side of the spectrum.

So we have this little spat. Patriotism goes up (for how long is debatable), our ballot box question seems to have shifted and as a result Canada takes steps to address some issues that need addressing which should include less reliance on the US.

Trump gets an off ramp and claims victory by getting the status quo. Discussions continue. The joint US Can economic summit JT has called for in Toronto is a good step. Anita Anand just announced action on provincial trade barriers and Carney stated he’ll push up the date to get to 2% NATO spending. Perfect timing with everyone feeling national pride in the face of threats that affect them.

 

[Remius]

https://www.reuters.com/world/uk-pm-starmer-tells-canadas-trudeau-he-welcomes-global-conversation-trade-2025-02-05/

Some opportunities across the pond. We should exploit more of that. Given the recent instability with our southern neighbours some insulation is required.

 

[Halifax Tar]

Because Canada has been so active about the Chinese and Russian threats…

I’m sorry but Canada getting all high and mighty now about Nationalism against America is a little farcical.

Nothing, absolutely nothing, will make patriots of Liberal Canadians with quite the same zeal as a reason to be Anti-American.

 

[Remius]

Nothing, absolutely nothing, will make patriots of Liberal Canadians with quite the same zeal as a reason to be Anti-American.

Seems pretty much spread across the political spectrum in Canada.

Last I checked Doug Ford and PP aren't exactly Liberals.

 

[JLB50]

Nothing, absolutely nothing, will make patriots of Liberal Canadians with quite the same zeal as a reason to be Anti-American.

Canadians should be concerned, very angry in fact, at what China and Russia have been doing. On the other hand, American domination of our economy should not be overlooked as a reason for Canadians being angered over the most recent Trump actions (info below as per StatsCan).

https://globalnews.ca/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/StatCan-foreign-controlled-assets-Oct-23.jpg?quality=85&strip=all

 

[Halifax Tar]

Seems pretty much spread across the political spectrum in Canada.

Last I checked Doug Ford and PP aren't exactly Liberals.

The implied difference is that your aforementioned examples were already zealous patriot's.

See, I don't think the left actually likes or loves Canada. I think they just really hate America, especially when its under republican control.

Canadians should be concerned, very angry in fact, at what China and Russia have been doing. On the other hand, American domination of our economy should not be overlooked as a reason for Canadians being angered over the most recent Trump actions (info below as per StatsCan).

https://globalnews.ca/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/StatCan-foreign-controlled-assets-Oct-23.jpg?quality=85&strip=all

Once this spat is over, we will be back to normal with America; with some added diversification I hope.

Russia and China will still be enemies.

 

[The Bread Guy]

How many people here keep saying Russia Russia Russia Hoax?

True dat.

I get called traitor a lot, as do other people from what I'm seeing on other platforms. It seems to be the new nazi.

You're right about "traitor" being bandied about a fair bit, but I see it applied an awful lot against politicians the applier doesn't like, period.

Meanwhile, the latest data point on the trade surplus from StatsCan:

Trade surplus with U.S. widened in December but down overall in 2024: StatCan

OTTAWA - Canada's trade surplus with the U.S. widened in December as overall exports rose thanks in part to higher energy prices, Statistics Canada said Wednesday.

www.thecanadianpressnews.ca

More at link (or archived here if link doesn't work).

 

[Czech_pivo]

This isn’t about whataboutisms.

Overt Economic threats (or any other overt ones) are far more likely to have a bigger response than subtle covert ones.

If Putin or Xi said publicly that they wanted to annex Canada and started exerting economic pressure to do it you would likely see the same response.

Counter US sentiment has been a feature of the Canadian psyche since 1776.

Its an inferiority complex that we Canadians have had for the last 150+yrs years that is our problem.

Canada is to the US is what Ireland is to the UK, what Austria is to Germany, what New Zealand is to Australia - in many many ways. BUT the biggest difference is OUR obsession with all that goes on US on a daily basis. Our media - print, tv, digital, talk shows is dominated with US news stories to the point that its almost on a 1 to 1 basis with Canadian news events. This is not the case in Ireland or Austria or New Zealand. Their media is not constantly broadcasting British or German or Australian new articles. Their tv station options are not dominated with British or German or Australian channels to the extent that ours are. Its crazy how much US sports, business, news is bombarding us on CDN news outlets. A large % of the CDN population is actually better informed on US politics and events than they are with CDN politics!

 

[Czech_pivo]

OK, lets rephrase it. Its the Liberals total lack of integrity.

Russian and Chinese threats? Deny it, hire a special "rapporteur", finally bring up a parliamentary commission, maybe slightly acknowledge it.

And then we look at the USA. Our LPC has been shit talking Trump and MAGA for 4 years. There is going to be nasty repercussions.

Have a look at who the Mayor of Mississauga is and then look up her claim to fame about 15yrs ago.

 

[Remius]

Its an inferiority complex that we Canadians have had for the last 150+yrs years that is our problem.

No argument there. I would say it’s also our minimalisation of our accomplishments and culture.

Canada is to the US is what Ireland is to the UK, what Austria is to Germany, what New Zealand is to Australia - in many many ways. BUT the biggest difference is OUR obsession with all that goes on US on a daily basis. Our media - print, tv, digital, talk shows is dominated with US news stories to the point that it’s almost on a 1 to 1 basis with Canadian news events. This is not the case in Ireland or Austria or New Zealand. Their media is not constantly broadcasting British or German or Australian new articles. Their tv station options are not dominated with British or German or Australian channels to the extent that ours are. It’s crazy how much US sports, business, news is bombarding us on CDN news outlets. A large % of the CDN population is actually better informed on US politics and events than they are with CDN politics!

That’s the problem with being that close to the world’s only super power. Note too that aside from your Austrian example, Ireland and New Zealand are islands. That affords some insulation. TV and radio waves from the US don’t have to travel far. I would also argue that Ireland and New Zealand and Ireland reject everything their bigger counterparts have to offer. New Zealanders and the Irish definitely identify as not being their bigger counterparts. Call them Australians or English and see how they react. I experienced that on one of my flights to Oceania. We somewhat react that way but most of us just normally laugh it off a as ignorance.

Interesting anecdote on the Irish. My wife went to visit with her mother and aunt on a family pilgrimage to Ireland. While taking a tour they noticed a lot of gratitude to Americans taking in the Irish. They weren’t too keen on Canada’s role in taking in the Irish. Basically Canada was still a loyalist country and America was not.

I can’t really speak to Austrians though. I don’t know enough about them.

 

[Czech_pivo]

From the CBC today -

Industry players have long complained that it's easier to do business with other countries than within Canada, largely due to regulatory barriers including differences in licensing requirements.

Internal Trade Minister Anita Anand, who has been working with the provinces on a way forward, has said removing existing barriers could lower prices by up to 15 per cent and add up to $200 billion to the domestic economy.

"We are at a pivotal moment in the history of our country," she said Wednesday during a news conference in Halifax.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canada-us-economic-summit-1.7450975

As sure as Canadians are known for leaving bad tips at a restaurant, nothing, nothing at all meaningful will be done to remove trade barriers within Canada. This will flame out like a moth flying to close to the campfire.

 

[Remius]

From the CBC today -

Industry players have long complained that it's easier to do business with other countries than within Canada, largely due to regulatory barriers including differences in licensing requirements.

Internal Trade Minister Anita Anand, who has been working with the provinces on a way forward, has said removing existing barriers could lower prices by up to 15 per cent and add up to $200 billion to the domestic economy.

"We are at a pivotal moment in the history of our country," she said Wednesday during a news conference in Halifax.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canada-us-economic-summit-1.7450975

As sure as Canadians are known for leaving bad tips at a restaurant, nothing, nothing at all meaningful will be done to remove trade barriers within Canada. This will flame out like a moth flying to close to the campfire.

Maybe. I’m optimistic that this is a good step forward.

 

[Halifax Tar]

From the CBC today -

Industry players have long complained that it's easier to do business with other countries than within Canada, largely due to regulatory barriers including differences in licensing requirements.

Internal Trade Minister Anita Anand, who has been working with the provinces on a way forward, has said removing existing barriers could lower prices by up to 15 per cent and add up to $200 billion to the domestic economy.

"We are at a pivotal moment in the history of our country," she said Wednesday during a news conference in Halifax.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canada-us-economic-summit-1.7450975

As sure as Canadians are known for leaving bad tips at a restaurant, nothing, nothing at all meaningful will be done to remove trade barriers within Canada. This will flame out like a moth flying to close to the campfire.

Why wasn't this done before?

 

[JLB50]

No argument there. I would say it’s also our minimalisation of our accomplishments and culture.

That’s the problem with being that close to the world’s only super power. Note too that aside from your Austrian example, Ireland and New Zealand are islands. That affords some insulation. TV and radio waves from the US don’t have to travel far. I would also argue that Ireland and New Zealand and Ireland reject everything their bigger counterparts have to offer. New Zealanders and the Irish definitely identify as not being their bigger counterparts. Call them Australians or English and see how they react. I experienced that on one of my flights to Oceania. We somewhat react that way but most of us just normally laugh it off a as ignorance.

Interesting anecdote on the Irish. My wife went to visit with her mother and aunt on a family pilgrimage to Ireland. While taking a tour they noticed a lot of gratitude to Americans taking in the Irish. They weren’t too keen on Canada’s role in taking in the Irish. Basically Canada was still a loyalist country and America was not.

I can’t really speak to Austrians though. I don’t know enough about them.

Kind of reminds me of how, when I was growing up in the U.S. midwest in the 1950s, it was common for people living in eastern Kansas to actively dislike (bordering on hatred) those living in midwestern Missouri, just a few miles across the state line. It had been that way since just before the Civil War when the anti- and pro-slavery forces clashed. In the last few decades though, the dislike has lessened substantially as population growth has taken in countless others from across the nation and immigrants as well.

 

[OldSolduer]

Its an inferiority complex that we Canadians have had for the last 150+yrs years that is our problem.

Pierre Berton sums that up quite nicely in one of his books.

WE Canadians have for far too long been the snotty brat in this continent. Looking down our noses at the USA and virtue signaling for quite some time and not just the last ten years.

Do you realize what FDR did in the 30s helped alleviate the Great Depression? The Hoover Dam is one example.

And what did Canada do for all the unemployed? Insulted them and called them names like "reliefers". There's more - just read Pierre's book.