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CAN-USA Tariff Strife (split from various pol threads)

Good2Golf said:
Points have validity, but respond to the question as what temporal frame should we be considering the relationship of trust? So back to Truman/Roosevelt times, and see Trump as a small blip of less than ~10%, so say…let’s be 90% confident that things will stabilize after Trump (be that 2028 or…2032? 🤷🏻‍♂️). Will Putin/Russia’s influence end with Trump? The circle of previous trust will be fully re-established? So a metaphoric pillow-biting is the best COA?
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I think it's the end of a mostly bipartisan US foreign policy. It will more be on the whim of the current government. US foreign policy was essentially the same between Democrat's and Republicans for the last 70 years. The main themes/goals remained the how's and why's changed.

Now though... I think they look very different.
 
Brad Sallows said:
What is Trumpism? Immigration enforcement? Common public order? A conservative skepticism of interventionism as compared to the adventurism and irrational expectations of neocons that all you have to do is overthrow dictators and democracy will flourish? Fiscal prudence? Constitutional adherence, particularly to freedoms of expression? A profound intolerance of waste, fraud, and abuse? Putting the interests of Americans first instead of treating US DIME like some sort of bank from which other countries get to make withdrawals?
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Oh it’s definitely complicated.

en.m.wikipedia.org

Trumpism - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org en.m.wikipedia.org

It will likely outlast him. It would be naive to think that this is just a 4year phenomenon and that everything will be fine after.
 
HavokFour said:
Looks like someone's eyes are starting to water, a blink may be coming.
www.bbc.com

Trump mulls exemptions for carmakers from Mexico and Canada tariffs

US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick says Donald Trump is considering a deal that would offer exemptions from tariffs on Canada and Mexico.
www.bbc.com www.bbc.com

Both Ontario and Feds are staying firm however.

www.ctvnews.ca

‘There is no halfway’: Premier Ford says Ontario’s measures will remain in place until U.S. lifts tariffs

Premier Doug Ford says Ontario will “hold our line” on tariffs and sanctions, including removing alcohol from LCBO shelves, until the United States lifts all tariffs on Canada. The comments come as the U.S. commerce secretary hints at potential tariff carve-outs to be announced Wednesday.
www.ctvnews.ca www.ctvnews.ca

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It's all part of the plan to over time pull more manufacturing to the US. You don't need tariffs just the threat of them to create uncertainty. And business flow to where there is no uncertainty. So why put in tariffs when the threat of them do the same thing.

Trump called GM Ford and Stellantis today and the scuttlebutt is that they promised to move more manufacturing to the US. They just want carve outs for their cars.
 
Brad Sallows said:
Any country under pressure is liable to break agreements, interfere, or ignore selected rules. The pressure doesn't have to be trade-related.

I cannot emphasize enough that the US is probably not more untrustworthy than it historically has been; all of this stems from Trump. It's prudent to assume that relations will normalize after Trump is gone (probably a lot sooner once Americans start feeling the self-imposed damage) and act accordingly with long-term interests in view. Follow the trend line, not the outlier.
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I concur - the test will be in 4yrs on who the US elections in that election - and - in the 4yrs after that. That's the timeline needed to begin to see if this was a minor anomaly or the continuing of a rift.
But if Trump continues down this path with us and the rest of the world, if a 'sane, rational' President comes next and they hope to pivot back to the 'old ways' with us and the rest of the world, they better have the nicest, most excellent, best in the world pair of kneepads because they are going to need them and need them often.
 
Brad Sallows said:
We've enjoyed good enough relations with the US going back into the early part of the last century. We didn't always have a FTA. We didn't always have NATO.

The point is to pay attention when people speak. Are they saying "the US" and "Americans", or are they putting the blame squarely on the source? Don't fight unnecessary battles. Don't turn a mix of hostiles, indifferents, and favourables into hostiles.
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I would totally agree with you if Trump or someone like him had gotten into power under false pretences and managed to do what he has done by surprise. Unfortunately Trump was voted into power after pretty much saying in advance exactly what he has managed to do so far…create chaos, inflict tariffs on many countries, bring Russia back into the fold, gut the government bureaucracy, end DEI, go after judges who he said were against him, etc. Although during the election he lied countless times and inflated facts and figures sometimes fantastically to support his claims, he was at least honest to his supporters about what he intended to do. The resulting election results reflected the confidence that the majority of Americans had in him.

I was born in the U.S., came to Canada many decades ago and still have some relatives living there, relatives who are very much Trump lovers if not outright fanatics. With tens of millions of people on both sides of the political divide there, the once great country to the south of us is being torn apart before our very eyes. As many others have previously said what’s happening now is basically the Civil War 2.0. I largely agree with them but am not 100% sure. Regardless, I cannot trust the American public to make decisions that are in the best interest of Canada, the world or even the United States itself.
 
JLB50 said:
I would totally agree with you if Trump or someone like him had gotten into power under false pretences and managed to do what he has done by surprise. Unfortunately Trump was voted into power after pretty much saying in advance exactly what he has managed to do so far…create chaos, inflict tariffs on many countries, bring Russia back into the fold, gut the government bureaucracy, end DEI, go after judges who he said were against him, etc. Although during the election he lied countless times and inflated facts and figures sometimes fantastically to support his claims, he was at least honest to his supporters about what he intended to do. The resulting election results reflected the confidence that the majority of Americans had in him.

I was born in the U.S., came to Canada many decades ago and still have some relatives living there, relatives who are very much Trump lovers if not outright fanatics. With tens of millions of people on both sides of the political divide there, the once great country to the south of us is being torn apart before our very eyes. As many others have previously said what’s happening now is basically the Civil War 2.0. I largely agree with them but am not 100% sure. Regardless, I cannot trust the American public to make decisions that are in the best interest of Canada, the world or even the United States itself.
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That cult-like aspect will ultimately culminate in the balkanization of the USA. At this point, I think it's inevitable. There's just too much hatred between the two halves of the political divide.
 
Underway said:
It's all part of the plan to over time pull more manufacturing to the US. You don't need tariffs just the threat of them to create uncertainty. And business flow to where there is no uncertainty. So why put in tariffs when the threat of them do the same thing.

Trump called GM Ford and Stellantis today and the scuttlebutt is that they promised to move more manufacturing to the US. They just want carve outs for their cars.
Click to expand...
The hit will come mostly on Mexico.

GM has no manufacturing left in Canada
Ford's Oakville plant is retooling until 2026 and that could be in jeopardy
Ford's Essex engine plant might be on the line
Stellantis is really no longer an 'American' company in the slightest - its French. Their facility in Brampton is on the chopping block before this madness began, leaving their Windsor facility their only other CDN plant. This plant should be fine as its closely tied in with the massive NextStar EV plant.
 
PrairieFella said:
That cult-like aspect will ultimately culminate in the balkanization of the USA. At this point, I think it's inevitable. There's just too much hatred between the two halves of the political divide.
Click to expand...
The political divide isn’t so much along geographical lines. It’s going to pit neighbour against neighbour or, some cases, state against state.
 
PrairieFella said:
That cult-like aspect will ultimately culminate in the balkanization of the USA. At this point, I think it's inevitable. There's just too much hatred between the two halves of the political divide.
Click to expand...

I think if he secures the southern border and reduces government waste, he will find support on both sides of the political spectrum in the voting population.

No country can carry on with an open border and mass unvetted migration and spending that will ultimately bankrupt the country. Every other POTUS talked about those issues but never did anything of substance.

I'd guess 75% of voters are on board with those things. The remaining 25% wouldn't agree water is wet.
 
Was curious to see how the call went today. It sounds like Trudeau might have told him to either drop them all or kick rocks.

1741198615204.png
 
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