CAN-USA Tariff Strife (split from various pol threads)

[Good2Golf]

I cannot emphasize enough that the US is probably not more untrustworthy than it historically has been; all of this stems from Trump. It's prudent to assume that relations will normalize after Trump is gone (probably a lot sooner once Americans start feeling the self-imposed damage) and act accordingly with long-term interests in view. Follow the trend line, not the outlier.

What is the appropriate duration/start/stop/frequency to base the trend line on?

 

[brihard]

Ahem, expert here…it’s a $1.50. I plan my whole waistline around Costco hotdog economics.

Any meaningful discussion of economics needs to correct for the deflationary impact of Costco hotdogs on consumer price statistics.

 

[Eaglelord17]

He needs to act like a Conservative then. Where's my tax cuts Dougie?

Also he needs to dodge the RCMP investigations into his greenbelt/highghway development buyoff situation. That's one of the reasons for the early election call. There is a scandal brewing.

Dougie isn’t conservative in many ways, if anything his policies align closer to the Liberals on most things. It is a large part of why he has managed to stay in power so long and a large part of why the Provincial Liberals are struggling to get back on their feet.

So saving people money is "populist bullshit" unless it's a tax cut, because that's a "true conservative" move? Also, how is removing puritanical rules regarding alcohol sales "populist bullshit"?

It isn’t saving people money, it is pushing debt on to our children. Ontarians will pay for that ‘savings’ one hundred fold in interest.

There is no movement in any of the political parties to actually be conservative fiscally. The best offered is a ‘balanced budget’ and even then that is seen as a aspirational goal rather than what should be the bare minimum.

As to the alcohol sales, I am all for loosening the regulations around it, I hate that we are paying billions in penalties for doing so (which with the interest we will pay on those billions will be much more than the initial amount). That is the populist side of it, the Conservative side would have been waiting until the clock ran out on the contracts.

 

[brihard]

The guy needs to run federally at some point.

What do you think, future federal election including a CPC leader Ford vs an NDP leader Kinew?

 

[Good2Golf]

It isn’t saving people money, it is pushing debt on to our children. Ontarians will pay for that ‘savings’ one hundred fold in interest.

So 10,000% inflation factor?

 

[OldSolduer]

Vance is seeming to be an excellent inheritor to the irrationality. We shall see.

A better word I think would be "duncery" "idiocy" or words like that.

 

[Eaglelord17]

So 10,000% inflation factor?

Not exact amounts but it is like paying the minimum balance on a credit card, you just keep paying. We average about 81.8 billion in interest payments a year currently (provincial and federal combined), or about 1750$ a person a year. Just to simply sustain our debt. I can think of a lot better uses for our money than to pay interest.

 

[OldSolduer]

There is no movement in any of the political parties to actually be conservative fiscally. The best offered is a ‘balanced budget’ and even then that is seen as a aspirational goal rather than what should be the bare minimum.

And this applies equally to city governments - especially Winnipeg - whose city council now wants to float a garbage collection "fee" on top of property taxes and frontage fees, which are taxes.
There is no movement to curb government spending at ANY level.

 

[Good2Golf]

Not exact amounts but it is like paying the minimum balance on a credit card, you just keep paying. We average about 81.8 billion in interest payments a year currently (provincial and federal combined), or about 1750$ a person a year. Just to simply sustain our debt. I can think of a lot better uses for our money than to pay interest.

Ah, I must have been confused by your “thousand-fold” bombast…

 

[Eaglelord17]

And this applies equally to city governments - especially Winnipeg - whose city council now wants to float a garbage collection "fee" on top of property taxes and frontage fees, which are taxes.
There is no movement to curb government spending at ANY level.

It’s all about spending currently, any sort of fiscally responsible measure is a surefire way to not get elected.

My municipality keeps increasing the levy each year despite property values going up which is also raising the amount of property taxes we need to pay accordingly. Then wasting the extra cash on vanity projects which always cost much more than the initial proposed amount.

 

[Kirkhill]

Back to "conservatism" for a moment. One of my great fears with respect to Carney is that he is too conservative. I fear that he wishes to conserve the old green order that he and his cohort have been foisting on us for the last few decades.

I am looking for an agent of change.

I am looking for someone to take advantage of this moment in time and change our national direction here in Canada.

And one element I am looking for is a greater degree of national self-reliance. Not individualism, though I am an individual and hope to be treated as one, but a greater sense of national purpose. And a sense that you can't rely on anybody, especially your neighbours.

 

[PrairieFella]

And this applies equally to city governments - especially Winnipeg - whose city council now wants to float a garbage collection "fee" on top of property taxes and frontage fees, which are taxes.
There is no movement to curb government spending at ANY level.

They literally have no choice. Sam Katz essentially bankrupted the city with a decade of tax freezes. Our shit plant should have been built a decade ago but tax cuts meant it got deferred now to the point it's going to cost over a billion. Winnipeg is not a good example of tax deferral. If want to stop poisoning Lake Winnipeg and ensure we can actually keep growing the population, we gotta do what we gotta do.

 

[OldSolduer]

The guy needs to run federally at some point.

My wife hates him with a passion.

I don't - but his government isn't what it appears to be. I do think he'd be a viable candidate to replace the current Federal NDP leader - he will have to rebuild that party and I think he could.

 

[Halifax Tar]

Tim Houston would make a fine federal leader, and I would reckon more electable than Dougie Ford.

 

[Brad Sallows]

What is the appropriate duration/start/stop/frequency to base the trend line on?

We've enjoyed good enough relations with the US going back into the early part of the last century. We didn't always have a FTA. We didn't always have NATO.

The point is to pay attention when people speak. Are they saying "the US" and "Americans", or are they putting the blame squarely on the source? Don't fight unnecessary battles. Don't turn a mix of hostiles, indifferents, and favourables into hostiles.

 

[QV]

Back to "conservatism" for a moment. One of my great fears with respect to Carney is that he is too conservative. I fear that he wishes to conserve the old green order that he and his cohort have been foisting on us for the last few decades.

I am looking for an agent of change.

I am looking for someone to take advantage of this moment in time and change our national direction here in Canada.

And one element I am looking for is a greater degree of national self-reliance. Not individualism, though I am an individual and hope to be treated as one, but a greater sense of national purpose. And a sense that you can't rely on anybody, especially your neighbours.

So basically a Trump without the orange-man-bad.

 

[Good2Golf]

We've enjoyed good enough relations with the US going back into the early part of the last century. We didn't always have a FTA. We didn't always have NATO.

The point is to pay attention when people speak. Are they saying "the US" and "Americans", or are they putting the blame squarely on the source? Don't fight unnecessary battles. Don't turn a mix of hostiles, indifferents, and favourables into hostiles.

Points have validity, but respond to the question as what temporal frame should we be considering the relationship of trust? So back to Truman/Roosevelt times, and see Trump as a small blip of less than ~10%, so say…let’s be 90% confident that things will stabilize after Trump (be that 2028 or…2032? ). Will Putin/Russia’s influence end with Trump? The circle of previous trust will be fully re-established? So a metaphoric pillow-biting is the best COA?

 

[HavokFour]

Looks like someone's eyes are starting to water, a blink may be coming.

Trump mulls exemptions for carmakers from Mexico and Canada tariffs

US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick says Donald Trump is considering a deal that would offer exemptions from tariffs on Canada and Mexico.

www.bbc.com

Both Ontario and Feds are staying firm however.

‘There is no halfway’: Premier Ford says Ontario’s measures will remain in place until U.S. lifts tariffs

Premier Doug Ford says Ontario will “hold our line” on tariffs and sanctions, including removing alcohol from LCBO shelves, until the United States lifts all tariffs on Canada. The comments come as the U.S. commerce secretary hints at potential tariff carve-outs to be announced Wednesday.

www.ctvnews.ca

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-05/canada-won-t-scrap-tariffs-unless-all-us-levies-are-lifted-official-says

 

[Remius]

Tim Houston would make a fine federal leader, and I would reckon more electable than Dougie Ford.

Name recognition is his problem. Doug Ford is a bit more known.

 

[Underway]

A common theme of conservatives regardless of sub-faction used to be trade liberalization.

Liquor sales isn't really a core or even a fringe government responsibility. Obviously tariffs and contract abrogation aren't examples of liberalization.

I reiterate that the best principle to follow when presented by protectionism is to respond by retaining and increasing liberal policies. I notice that despite talking about it a lot, there still hasn't been a lot of movement on internal liberalization. Our "Team Canada" leaders are trying very hard not to have to shed their own protectionist policies. On mega-projects, governments should be clearing regulatory burdens, not choosing winners and losers.

I'm expecting a backdown by Trump at some point not too far in the future ("declare victory and go home") when a face-saving excuse presents. It should be obvious that the mess created in the auto industry alone is going to produce intense pressures for an exception, and once there is one exception everyone else will be clamouring for one. I suppose with the 10% (lower) tariff on energy imports there is already one exception.

I agree that's what conservatism used to be. From Eisenhower to Regan/Mulroney up to about 2016.

MAGA has upended that cart and made it look like something else. It's isolationism over global trade and the US doesn't want to pay for the global trade protection anymore. That's the actual subsidization, it doesn't come from trade flows it comes from guaranteeing safe trade.

I also have concerns about Team Canada, I think (hope) that now the tariffs were made real yesterday were going to see the snowball start rolling. Alberta and BC are working on natural gas flows. NS went the furthest on taking down all their objections (19 of them) to the interprovincial free trade agreement for any other provience that does the same.

I think some of the stall is the Ontario election and federal prorogue. ON Parliment resumes in two weeks so we'll see some movement then I hope.