CAN-USA Tariff Strife (split from various pol threads)

[Kirkhill]

Pretend for a moment Trump doesn't know that... his inner circle and the high level folks in his defence department advising him do know that. Canada getting serious on defence and arctic security means a little less for the Americans to worry and spend on it. And that would probably translate to easing the economic assault on us.

The problem there is that an independently armed Canada might choose to act independently and get above its station. I am pretty sure that America would not be best please if we acquired our own fleet of Long Range Ballistic Missiles from a third party and equipped a few with nuclear warheads. All purchased in the name of securing the Arctic and the Northwest Passage.

Likewise, something as simple as stocking up our warehouses with Long Range Air to Surface Missiles: Keeping in mind what a dozen men with 5 aircraft did to disrupt America for decades how concerned do you think they might be if they had a hostile government on their northern border equipped with a substantial amount of weaponry.

I think it suits the Americans to have empty warehouses in Canada and Canada buying from American production lines and warehouses on demand.

Canada doesn't need to invade America. It just has to disrupt America in the same way that Ukraine is disrupting Russia. Fort Henry secured Canada's 3 mile limit with 3 mile cannon. Now, within our budget, we have access to weapons that disrupt much deeper.

The Cuban Missile Crisis was all about Cuba becoming a launch site for missiles that could reach into the US.

Greenland and Canada have the potential to become what Cuba became, and a lot more easily. If Trump is actually concerned about that as a real possibility then his "rational" response would be to secure that ground and bring it under his control.

He wants Europeans to look after Europe. A re-armed Europe, a competent JEF, suits his needs. But does he want an independent Canada, allied to a Nuclear JEF, and/or a well-armed Asia, sitting on its northern border?

We haven't allowed ourselves to consider the possibilities because they are all very frightening and very expensive, presenting policy requirements we haven't had to consider in at least three generations.

 

[Fishbone Jones]

I think that they have to go along with Trump on the deferral until April 2 and if the Orange Menace again implements the Tariffs - we go hard on them - not 30$ billion out the gate but the full 185$ billion and whatever else we need to do.

With that being said - I'm hoping that somehow this gets worked out by then. By April 2, Trudeau will be gone, a new Red leader will be in place and quite possibly we'll be in the middle of an election (I mentioned on the LPC Leadership thread that I got a text from PP yesterday saying that the 'rumour' is that the election will be called on 16 March), and things might be put on hold by Trump because Trudeau is no longer around.

I do have to say, reading into my crystal ball, Trump has for 100% certain crushed Freeland's chance of being the Red leader. The Red's realise that Trump hates her and as a result they would be committing political suicide by electing her as leader. Again, just me reading my crystal ball.

I agree with most of this but not the April 2 date. Trudeau is already playing games with the transition period. I wouldn't be surprised if they decided that the transition lasted until October 25.

We won't be rid of him in any case. He's resigning as PM but is still the elected MP for his riding. Don't be surprised if he becomes the most called on backbencher in history. Or if Carney appoints him as Trade Tzar or some other ridiculous position. Maybe Foriegn Affairs as some Ambassador position. The possibilities are endless.

 

[Czech_pivo]

Like I mentioned in the LPC leadership thread, I got a text from PP's team saying that they believe that the election will be called on 16 March. If that's the case, then Trudeau would be gone by the end of April, first week of May.

I agree with most of this but not the April 2 date. Trudeau is already playing games with the transition period. I wouldn't be surprised if they decided that the transition lasted until October 25.

We won't be rid of him in any case. He's resigning as PM but is still the elected MP for his riding. Don't be surprised if he becomes the most called on backbencher in history. Or if Carney appoints him as Trade Tzar or some other ridiculous position. Maybe Foriegn Affairs as some Ambassador position. The possibilities are endless.

 

[Fishbone Jones]

The problem there is that an independently armed Canada might choose to act independently and get above its station. I am pretty sure that America would not be best please if we acquired our own fleet of Long Range Ballistic Missiles from a third party and equipped a few with nuclear warheads. All purchased in the name of securing the Arctic and the Northwest Passage.

Likewise, something as simple as stocking up our warehouses with Long Range Air to Surface Missiles: Keeping in mind what a dozen men with 5 aircraft did to disrupt America for decades how concerned do you think they might be if they had a hostile government on their northern border equipped with a substantial amount of weaponry.

I think it suits the Americans to have empty warehouses in Canada and Canada buying from American production lines and warehouses on demand.

Canada doesn't need to invade America. It just has to disrupt America in the same way that Ukraine is disrupting Russia. Fort Henry secured Canada's 3 mile limit with 3 mile cannon. Now, within our budget, we have access to weapons that disrupt much deeper.

The Cuban Missile Crisis was all about Cuba becoming a launch site for missiles that could reach into the US.

Greenland and Canada have the potential to become what Cuba became, and a lot more easily. If Trump is actually concerned about that as a real possibility then his "rational" response would be to secure that ground and bring it under his control.

He wants Europeans to look after Europe. A re-armed Europe, a competent JEF, suits his needs. But does he want an independent Canada, allied to a Nuclear JEF, and/or a well-armed Asia, sitting on its northern border?

We haven't allowed ourselves to consider the possibilities because they are all very frightening and very expensive, presenting policy requirements we haven't had to consider in at least three generations.

If we become Fortress CANUSA, the US will still be driving the bus. Just like NORAD.

We have to be in charge of our own destiny.

I'd like to see most foreign aid cut off and all put into the military and used for equipment and recruitment. We will never be capable of a military large enough to defend the whole country at once. But we can become as big as we possibly can. We need to prioritise and build an Arctic defence line. We need permanent bases up there. On the coast, so we can use them as ports also.

I have other stuff rolling around in my skull, but I have to sort them and figure out some points on them.

I don't mind us becoming a nuclear power. We don’t need big honking ICBMs. Some Minuteman IIIs should be enough to buy our way into the club.

 

[Fishbone Jones]

Like I mentioned in the LPC leadership thread, I got a text from PP's team saying that they believe that the election will be called on 16 March. If that's the case, then Trudeau would be gone by the end of April, first week of May.

I think we should consider that a big if, until we know for sure. I won't believe it until I see the GG agree to it and dissolve parliament.

 

[HavokFour]

https://www.cnn.com/2025/03/07/business/tariffs-trump-canada/index.html

No one has explained to him how supply management works yet I see. This wont have much effect on us, if any. Now taking bets on if he slaps a tariff on eggs soon.

 

[Fishbone Jones]

Organized crime groups is a pretty broad definition, and it seemed like he was saying that's how many are in Canada, not profiting off fentanyl. The majority are small gangs with a handful of big players.

If the RCMP knew how many people were profitting off fentanyl, they would likely be arresting most of them, so it's an impossible question to answer.

It's not like there was far less of them operating under Harper or anything, and the number won't magically go down if Pollievre gets elected.

A large number are probably OMC. If you have a three piece rocker, an MC patch and a 1% diamond, you are criminal organization in Canada. How many clubs fit that bill?

 

[Fishbone Jones]

https://www.cnn.com/2025/03/07/business/tariffs-trump-canada/index.html

No one has explained to him how supply management works yet I see. This wont have much effect on us, if any. Now taking bets on if he slaps a tariff on eggs soon.

Personally, we should just shut off the dairy and lumber supply. The marketing board will take a hit, but tough shit. If they want to maintain production they can lower prices here and diversify their product.

If we’re going to have a home building explosion under Poliviere, we'll need all the cheap and ready lumber to supply the market. Keep it here where we can keep the price down by using what we normally sell to the US. Otherwise the building initiative will stall because of lack of material. And shortages always come with price increases. If the producers have the commitment from the government, they'll supply all we need, at regular prices. Some closed mills might even reopen.

 

[Remius]

Speaking of dairy

https://www.cnn.com/2025/03/07/business/tariffs-trump-canada/index.html

 

[Fishbone Jones]

Good. Like I say. Cut them off.

The marketing board can shift and use their surplus for powdered milk and powdered eggs.

We can distibute that as foriegn aid instead of cash.

 

[Good2Golf]

I don't mind us becoming a nuclear power. We don’t need big honking ICBMs. Some Minuteman IIIs should be enough to buy our way into the club.

I’d look at the French ASMP, especially if we got some Rafales. We could operate much more closely with the French around the world. I actually think they’ll be top of the European power pyramid…transact with them…

Speaking of dairy

https://www.cnn.com/2025/03/07/business/tariffs-trump-canada/index.html

Back on the bus… lol

 

[Fishbone Jones]

I’d look at the French ASMP, especially if we got some Rafales. We could operate much more closely with the French around the world. I actually think they’ll be top of the European power pyramid…transact with them…



Back on the bus… lol

Yeah, but I can’t help this feeling that if we entered into anything with France, only Quebec would profit from it.

 

[Good2Golf]

Yeah, but I can’t help this feeling that if we entered into anything with France, only Quebec would profit from it.

Bring Quebec into the fold of have provinces and share some of its income back into the equalization game.

 

[lenaitch]

I wonder when the UN General Assembly will rebel against the Security Council, especially the Permanent 5. Will their elected representatives on the Security Council ever decide to disregard the vetos?

Now that Trump has joined Putin and Xi in demonstrating that they are both bullies and instable what credibility do they retain? All of them are also demonstrating that they are all hat and no cattle. None of them have the wherewithal to back up their bluffs. Putin isn't pushing any buttons. Xi is pulling out of Panama. Trump is starting to get whiplash from the number of reversals he is announcing. All of them are short of cash, soldiers and weapons, and I include Xi in that. He is still trying to build up his forces and, at the same time, looking for generals who will both show initiative and follow orders while building a modern army. I think that even now, with or without US help, though probably with Korean and Japanese help, the PLA would have difficulty getting any force across the Straits and lodged on Taiwan.

Are they as fearsome as they were? All three of them?

What happens if the General Assembly, together with the non-permanent members, chose to ignore the permanent members and act in defiance of their vetos? I'd like to think that the Brits and the French would work with the General Assembly. Similar dynamics created the parliamentary system and the primacy of the Commons.

I'm actually kinda surprised he hasn't ordered to UN to find a new home, in another country.

 

[Good2Golf]

I'm actually kinda surprised he hasn't ordered to UN to find a new home, in another country.

I’d anticipate Paris or Brussels…

 

[OldSolduer]

I'm actually kinda surprised he hasn't ordered to UN to find a new home, in another country.

SHHHHH don't give him any ideas....and we don't want them either.

 

[Fishbone Jones]

Bring Quebec into the fold of have provinces and share some of its income back into the equalization game.

We really need that sarcasm emoji.

 

[OldSolduer]

I’d anticipate Paris or Brussels…

So conceivably the UN could sprout up somewhere else....

 

[Fishbone Jones]

So conceivably the UN could sprout up somewhere else....

You won't get any complaint from New York Parking Enforcement.

 

[Good2Golf]

So conceivably the UN could sprout up somewhere else....

It probably should…Moscow New York is rapidly becoming passé…