CAN-USA Tariff Strife (split from various pol threads)

[PPCLI Guy]

Meah...

From my position the intent of this is to elbows down. Accept losses, play the long game, hope we can weather the storm, stand with your Gov; allegiance to the Gov is allegiance to Canada...

Time may be on our side for outlasting DJT, but who knows how his successor and their Gov will look at and manage their side of our relationship.

It is an alternate strategy with a coherent theory of victory. I have yet to see the same from the alternative which is to fight everything, all the time. Perhaps one can be developed here?

 

[Halifax Tar]

It is an alternate strategy with a coherent theory of victory. I have yet to see the same from the alternative which is to fight everything, all the time. Perhaps one can be developed here?

If you say so... I hope it all works out for us...

 

[PPCLI Guy]

If you say so... I hope it all works out for us...

Nowhere did I suggest that this is the most appropriate strategy. I merely posted one of the viable COAs for information.

I would love to see some other coherent strategies, but I fear that neither the Government nor the Opposition have articulated one, to say nothing of the commentariat (which includes this site).

 

[Halifax Tar]

Nowhere did I suggest that this is the most appropriate strategy. I merely posted one of the viable COAs for information.

I would love to see some other coherent strategies, but I fear that neither the Government nor the Opposition have articulated one, to say nothing of the commentariat (which includes this site).

Hey man, I just want things to get better. Personally I keep watching things get more expensive and my child's future look more bleak if she decides to stay in Canada.

 

[Czech_pivo]

I agree that things are getting more expensive and I want things to 'get better', however broadly defined that is but what has to be kept in mind is that what's going on here is no different that every single G7/G28 country right now.

All have inflation issues or have had inflation issues since Covid.
All have either falling labour participation rates and high unemployment or a combination of one of the two.
All face limiting full time career options for their youth.
All face rising housing prices, some more than others but complaints about high rent and/or housing costs are consistent across the board.

We are not the only country to be experiencing this. Its not all roses and sunshine elsewhere in the world. That doesn't mean that I'm trying to sweep things under the rugs and turn a blind eye to what's happening here. I'm trying to put things into perspective. When I left Canada in late Aug of 1993 the national unemployment rate was 11.2% and youth unemployment in August of 1993 (for those 15-24yrs old) it was 17.9%. Both of those numbers were about 40% higher than the unemployment rates of today........ Some are tending to look back at how things were 15yrs ago and comparing them to now but when you look back 30-32yrs, you remember that things were actually much worse than they are today. That is what time/age gives you, a greater ability to put things into perspective and understanding, that you've already experienced before what is happening now and you know that things will eventually get much better.......

Success for Canada going forward must include the growing of the vast majority of the paid income tax by the population from 20% to 30-35% and the reduction of the 40% who pay nothing in income taxes down to 20-25%. However that is achieved, by higher labour participation, lower unemployment, lower temp foreign workers, wage growth, tax incentives, job retraining with financial assistance, mandatory work for benefits, increase family benefits to encourage working age Mom's to get back into the workforce, greater flexibility in movement of people from one area of the country to another.

Hey man, I just want things to get better. Personally I keep watching things get more expensive and my child's future look more bleak if she decides to stay in Canada.

 

[PrairieFella]

Guess she can go to...Japan? Only place shit isnt skyrocketing.

Hey man, I just want things to get better. Personally I keep watching things get more expensive and my child's future look more bleak if she decides to stay in Canada.

 

[Halifax Tar]

@Czech_pivo

Very respectfully everyone else sucks too is a deflection.

AI ASSISTED

Guess she can go to...Japan? Only place shit isnt skyrocketing.

I've heard good things about their Sushi.

 

[Czech_pivo]

@Czech_pivo

Very respectfully everyone else sucks too is a deflection.

AI ASSISTED
View attachment 101495

I've heard good things about their Sushi.

Do you think that people/parents aren't having the exact same discussions about the cost of living, job opportunities and inflation in all parts of the US right now? I guarantee you that they are, 100%.

As I've said, its not all Sunshine and Roses in other parts of the world.

95 percent say US in affordability crisis: Survey​

https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/5959019-affordability-crisis-groceries-price-surges-inflation-survey/

Half of Americans struggle to afford groceries and gas, exclusive poll finds​

Half of Americans struggle to afford groceries and gas, exclusive poll finds

About 57% of polled Americans also believe economy is worsening in grim portrait of cost of living crisis, according to Harris survey for the Guardian

www.theguardian.com

Vancouver's cost of living is cheap compared to some U.S. cities​

Vancouver's cost of living is cheap compared to some U.S. cities | Daily Hive | Urbanized

If you compare Vancouver's cost of living to some major U.S. cities, it is actually substantially more affordable.

dailyhive.com

https://seekingalpha.com/news/4615192-the-great-bust-the-soaring-cost-of-living-the-american-dream

‘It’s never enough’: young Americans struggle to build financial independence as cost of living spikes​

‘It’s never enough’: young Americans struggle to build financial independence as cost of living spikes

A difficult job market and rising costs are making it harder for young adults to enter adulthood

www.theguardian.com

The Cost-of-Living Crisis Is Rewriting the Rules of Dating​

The Cost-of-Living Crisis Is Rewriting the Rules of Dating

Traditional markers of adulthood have become unattainable. Living alone or picking up every dinner bill are no longer reliable proxies for ambition, writes Meehika Barua.

time.com

 

[Halifax Tar]

As I've said, its not all Sunshine and Roses in other parts of the world.

Phew, I feel better.

 

[dapaterson]

I've heard good things about their Sushi.

Say you spent your career on the East Coast without saying you spent your career on the East Coast

 

[PrairieFella]

Inflation is also far hotter in the States than the rest of the G7. Higher than growth.

 

[Czech_pivo]

Phew, I feel better.

Glad that I can help.

Understand that the black cloud isn't just over Canada everyday, all day. Its over everyone at one time or another. Unto everyone's lives a little rain must fall.

Before I left Canada for 'greener pastures', my nickname that my friends in University gave me was 'Black Cloud' because I tended to focus always on the worst case scenario. I didn't spend the time/effort to look at the whole picture, just focus in on the negative and pick away at it. Maybe that is why I choose to leave Canada to do my MA in '93 when youth unemployment was sitting at 17.9%. Those 7yrs aboard allowed me to see the world - and Canada - in a completely different light. Living/working in a former Communist country that was transiting to a market based system was an eye-opener. I distinctly remember the first time after 8 months living in the Czech Republic when I entered a Canadian grocery store for the first time and went to buy butter/margarine. I had become acclimatized in having about 4-5 choices in the Czech Republic (and I was quite happy with those 4-5 choices), but here I was suddenly forced to choose between over 15-20 choices of butter/margarine. I stood there looking at all of these choices and I remember asking myself - how is my life any better with having 20 choices for butter/margarine - and the answer that I came up with was - its not, its totally not any better, its just different, and different can be either good or bad depending on how it affects you as an individual. Today, I consider myself to be a 'Realistic Optimist', which is still a nod to my old 'Black Cloud' nickname but mixing in some optimism along the way.

 

[Halifax Tar]

Glad that I can help.

Understand that the black cloud isn't just over Canada everyday, all day. Its over everyone at one time or another. Unto everyone's lives a little rain must fall.

Before I left Canada for 'greener pastures', my nickname that my friends in University gave me was 'Black Cloud' because I tended to focus always on the worst case scenario. I didn't spend the time/effort to look at the whole picture, just focus in on the negative and pick away at it. Maybe that is why I choose to leave Canada to do my MA in '93 when youth unemployment was sitting at 17.9%. Those 7yrs aboard allowed me to see the world - and Canada - in a completely different light. Living/working in a former Communist country that was transiting to a market based system was an eye-opener. I distinctly remember the first time after 8 months living in the Czech Republic when I entered a Canadian grocery store for the first time and went to buy butter/margarine. I had become acclimatized in having about 4-5 choices in the Czech Republic (and I was quite happy with those 4-5 choices), but here I was suddenly forced to choose between over 15-20 choices of butter/margarine. I stood there looking at all of these choices and I remember asking myself - how is my life any better with having 20 choices for butter/margarine - and the answer that I came up with was - its not, its totally not any better, its just different, and different can be either good or bad depending on how it affects you as an individual. Today, I consider myself to be a 'Realistic Optimist', which is still a nod to my old 'Black Cloud' nickname but mixing in some optimism along the way.

TLDR;

Hunting season is just around the corner, setting up blinds and stands Friday, I'm still playing snr mens and old boys rugby at 47, coaching my daughter at U14, own 2 properties now, pensionable and my family is positioned to weather what may come. I'm actually very happy and established. Its not me I worry about.

Expecting ones Gov to preform shouldn't be seen as being a black cloud. But I know our own biases will shade things differently.

 

[daftandbarmy]

Glad that I can help.

Understand that the black cloud isn't just over Canada everyday, all day. Its over everyone at one time or another. Unto everyone's lives a little rain must fall.

Before I left Canada for 'greener pastures', my nickname that my friends in University gave me was 'Black Cloud' because I tended to focus always on the worst case scenario. I didn't spend the time/effort to look at the whole picture, just focus in on the negative and pick away at it. Maybe that is why I choose to leave Canada to do my MA in '93 when youth unemployment was sitting at 17.9%. Those 7yrs aboard allowed me to see the world - and Canada - in a completely different light. Living/working in a former Communist country that was transiting to a market based system was an eye-opener. I distinctly remember the first time after 8 months living in the Czech Republic when I entered a Canadian grocery store for the first time and went to buy butter/margarine. I had become acclimatized in having about 4-5 choices in the Czech Republic (and I was quite happy with those 4-5 choices), but here I was suddenly forced to choose between over 15-20 choices of butter/margarine. I stood there looking at all of these choices and I remember asking myself - how is my life any better with having 20 choices for butter/margarine - and the answer that I came up with was - its not, its totally not any better, its just different, and different can be either good or bad depending on how it affects you as an individual. Today, I consider myself to be a 'Realistic Optimist', which is still a nod to my old 'Black Cloud' nickname but mixing in some optimism along the way.

Meanwhile, Me.

And probably the reason why we don't get invited out by too many people anymore.

A history degree, and a subscription to The Economist, can be hazardous to your social health

 

[Czech_pivo]

Meanwhile, Me.

And probably the reason why we don't get invited out by too many people anymore.

A history degree, and a subscription to The Economist, can be hazardous to your social health

Might be dangerous for us to sit down and have 4-6 pints.....

 

[daftandbarmy]

Might be dangerous for us to sit down and have 4-6 pints.....

 

[Altair]

https://www.reuters.com/business/canada-turns-us-europe-iran-war-propels-aluminium-higher-2026-05-27/

Disruption in the Middle East, which accounts for 9% of global aluminium smelting capacity, has upended trade flows far beyond the Gulf, industry sources told Reuters.
An ensuing tug-of-war is playing out in regional physical market premiums U.S. and European buyers pay above the London Metal Exchange benchmark for aluminium, which is used in everything from cars and beer cans to building materials.
"We are in a situation where the Europeans and the Americans ⁠are competing for limited aluminium units," said Bank of America analyst Michael Widmer.

With LME prices around $3,670 a ton, U.S. consumers are paying $6,200 a ton for their aluminium while in Europe the cost has jumped to $4,300 a ton.
"The European premium is an incentive for Canadians to push metal east," said Wittbecker.
The U.S. was traditionally the default destination for aluminium from Canada, which exported a total of nearly 2.6 million tons of unwrought aluminium metal and alloys last year, Trade Data Monitor figures showed.
But after U.S. President Donald Trump imposed tariffs on imports, Canadian producers began to divert metal to Europe.
TDM data shows Canadian aluminium accounted for 54% of ‌U.S. imports ⁠in the first quarter of this year, down from 63% in the same period last year and 75% in the first three months of 2024.

Canadian aluminium exports to the European Union ranged between 6% and 40% of the monthly totals between April 2025 and March 2026, compared with near zero in the first quarter of last year, TDM data showed.
Data for Canada's April aluminium exports is not yet available, but industry sources expect it to confirm the trend of rising exports to ⁠Europe and falling shipments to the U.S.

So redirecting our Aluminium trade from the USA to Europe, lets check in on how the USA is doing.

Why US Aluminium All-In Costs Are Stuck Above $6,000/Tonne

Explore why US aluminum tops $6,000/tonne and why policy shifts keep prices elevated beyond any geopolitical fix.

discoveryalert.com.au

Most commodity price spikes are cyclical. Supply contracts, demand surges, prices climb, and eventually the market rebalances. Aluminum in the United States is currently defying that logic. The all-in landed cost of US aluminum tops $6,000 tonne tariff cost floor, and the structural forces holding it there are not the kind that resolve when a ceasefire is signed or a shipping lane reopens.

As of early May 2026, the Midwest Premium reached $2,529/tonne, a figure that accounts for more than 40% of the total all-in transaction cost, according to CME Group data. The US aluminium tariff impact on the premium has been significant, with several compounding factors explaining its elevation:

• Freight and logistics costs for aluminum entering US distribution channels have remained persistently high
• Domestic supply scarcity, driven by reduced Canadian import volumes and limited US primary production capacity, has tightened spot availability
• The effective tariff burden embedded in import costs has compounded premium pricing for material sourced from tariff-affected origins
• The premium is not geopolitically reversible in the short term; even if Middle Eastern shipping routes normalise, the domestic supply imbalance and tariff structure remain

So launching a trade war on Canadian Aluminium while at the same time launching an actual war that blocks the main replacement for Canadian Aluminium, Middle east Aluminium, from reaching America.

Meanwhile our trade with europe has gone from next to nothing to 40 percent.

Just another example of the strategic brilliance of Donald John Trump.